Originally Posted by
jg8512
hi Panda
I had a similar experience trying to join sharetrader - it took several attempts and literally months of waiting to join. For years I've become so used to being able to read posts, but not contribute, it's proving a very hard habit to break. Ie, Even now that I have write access I still read and don't contribute.
excellent first post, BTW. Thanks. I too am a large Briscoe's holder - not many (any?) NZX stocks that are better value than BGP, IMHO.
As dragonz notes, BGP also has a large cash balance ($78m at latest report according to my s/sheet) as well as that big holding in KMD (worth circa $95m according to my s/sheet). In valuing BGP, and calculating a PE for BGP, you really need to adjust for those investments, IMHO, as their value is not fully reflecting in current earnings. Doing so, and BGP is cheaper still, IMHO.
the big risk, seems to be BGP's reliance on key brands which other parties like Amazon could sell at lower prices solely by internet. Will the consumer of tomorrow prefer an internet-only offer from eg Amazon or an offer from a retailer with internet sales, backed by a physical store network? In my view, the short answer is: time will tell, and will emerge gradually. Clearly internet will continue to take sales from physical sales - but BGP is active online too with strong internet sales growth, and I'm not at all convinced that Amazon et al will simply kill everyone else. Yet, the share price for BGP seems to assume that will happen, and happen relatively quickly. that seems very pessimistic, in my view.
Happy to hold and accumulate more BGP.