You mean the CRIMEX - like they usually do . . . :mad:
A few bullish signs today USDX is down below 84 - I'm hopeful for some positive action. :D
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A stellar performance last night Dr. It was an important session, I would not want to see gold move back below $800 lest that stall the next push through $1k.
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 16 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 16, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Gold was the recipient of “reflation” flows as money flowed back into the commodity sector today on news that the remaining $350 billion in the TARP was going to be released. That served to undercut safe haven flows into the dollar and definitely into the bonds, with commodities as a sector generally benefiting. As I wrote the other day, if you don’t like the current investor sentiment, stick around a day or so, it will flip 180 degrees and then do that same thing again a few days after that. Perhaps next week we go back to deflation paranoia. Who knows and who really cares at this point since all that matters in these markets is money flows – nothing else.
From a technical perspective gold bounced exactly where it needed to bounce in order to keep the technical charts from deteriorating. It did however run exactly into overhead resistance in today’s rally where it was summarily capped by the usual crowd. The bulls have dodged a bullet and deserve credit for their performance and grit but they need to force the shorts out of their defense line at $840 to give them a shot at $860. They are attempting to do that even as I write this commentary. Hats off to those fund managers who actually bought into the weakness in gold for a change instead of selling downward momentum.
Attachment 1177
While it is a bit difficult to see on the 12 hour chart, gold has actually been forming a reverse head and shoulders chart with one shoulder near $750 in early September 2008 and the head near the $700 level in late October and early November. The last shoulder and this is ONLY A POTENTIAL shoulder is the low made yesterday. To confirm this, gold would need to break out above the $880 level in a convincing fashion. That once again serves to underscore the significance of that pesky $880 level. For now, resistance stands at today’s high near $840 followed by stronger resistance between $855- $860. Support remains just above the $800 level.
The mining shares as indicated by the HUI and the XAU bounced off the 50 day moving averages and are now running into resistance near their down-trending 10 day moving averages. The HUI is attempting to climb back above broken support near the 266 level but is encountering difficulty with the broader equity markets sinking back into negative territory. The XAU’s chart is actually better looking than that of the HUI as it managed to climb back above broken support near the 107 level but it too has run into selling in the zone between the falling 10 and 20 day moving averages at today’s session high.
Grains are all strongly higher today with Argentina’s drought news putting a firm bid under the soybean market which is effectively pulling wheat and corn along for the ride. That move in the grains has my attention as they have been tracking closely with gold’s overall performance.
Crude oil is lower today after violating support yesterday near the $35 level which makes the rally in some of the other commodities all the more noteworthy. I do hope that we are reaching the point where these various markets begin to trade on their own set of fundamentals rather than the mindless idiocy we have had to sit through watching index funds and hedge funds spit them all out en masse or buy them all up en masse. Crude needs to get above $40 in the February to have a shot at a bottom being formed.
Bonds had collapsed at one point today when the stock market was moving higher and safe haven flows abruptly reversed but as the equity markets faded and crude moved lower, the bonds began moving well off their lows. Judging from last evening’s Federal Reserve Custodial Accounts data, foreign Central Banks continue to GORGE themselves on US Treasury paper while continuing their exodus from US agency debt. As long as this FCB bank buying of Treasuries continues in such size, it is difficult to see the collapse of the bond market bubble occurring anytime soon. It will collapse however and when it does, the sound will be heard around the world as it will occur very quickly.
The dollar was stymied up between the 86 – 85 level which is the former support region from October and November of last year. Technically it looks like a failure to climb back above the 86 level quickly and the Dollar is headed back to 82 with a possible test of 80 occurring.
Click the link below to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...d1230pmcdt.pdf
Not even a dead cat bounce for the banks. Yesterday the Dow rallied back some 200 points and the banks could only make the sound of a thud. Citi is breaking up [as if two bankrupts are better than one], Bank [owned by] America needs $20 billion not the $10 they were talking about yesterday and JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and GE are all plumbing new lows. We are at the breaking point and something needs to be done very soon.
I believe the solution will involve a market closure and bank holiday.
Along with these closures will be the famed "force majeur" for the metals markets, this will be mandatory because of JP Morgan's short exposure. I have made the "musical chair" analogy many times in the past, I think we are now VERY close. When the light switch is flipped you will have what you have and movement will be frozen. After however long it takes to "reopen", the worlds' "values" will not be recognizable, huge gaps will have happened while no one could make portfolio changes. The current portfolio manager wisdom is "I will sell or hedge 5 minutes before the bomb hits the ground", I don't think so Tim.
Both the U.S. and Britain are no longer publishing money supply numbers so no one can see how egregious they are with printing more paper. The whole mess stinks from head to toe, the world has turned into one gigantic ENRON! All currencies are fraudulent which makes everything we do and touch also fraudulent by association. Government economic numbers have been bogus, income and asset reporting by corporations has been fraudulent, Ponzi schemes have popped up everywhere, and of course all the way down to individuals, we have seen lying to receive loans. Even the Roman Gods must be blushing at what we are being fed on a daily basis.
When all is said and done, the rush into metals as wealth protection will be unlike any panic ever seen in history. I have become more and more sure of this as each fraudulent event larger than the last has surfaced. The panic into metals will be caused by the "what can I trust mentality". This event is very close, as I believe that when it comes to anything finance, YOU CAN NO LONGER TRUST ANYTHING! I know this sounds a bit paranoid but given everything we have been told and fed for the last 18 months [actually much longer], everything has turned out to be 180 degrees off. When history is written about the current episode, fraud will probably be the most commonly used word. Physical Gold is no fraud, it never has been and is an honest island in middle of the current cesspool. The masses will seek haven!
Regards, Bill Holter
via Le Metropole
Looks like a H&S with the action testing the neckline now.
Now, if it cant break through, the first target could be
somewhere in that circle. The line through the circle is
a possible area of support from old consolidation and
resistances.
......which in turn could create a bull Gartley meaning the action
could then head back to test the bear flag lower line......
Theres another possible H&S, but you might be able to
figure that one out on the lower flag line
.........crystal ball games :)
.
Thanks for the TA Arco.
The Latest US Banking Crisis
"We cannot remember the start of any year since the US Dollar and Gold were divorced in 1971 when more people were more "bullish" on the prospect for Gold over the year to come. It is disquieting, to say the least."
Sure enough. By Thursday, January 15, the spot future price of Gold in New York was down to $US 807.70 - nearly $US 80 below the $US 884.30 level where it had started the year less that two weeks before. Then came the BIG upward bounce on January 16. We have yet to see an instance where an upsurge in publically "bullish" sentiment by mainstream financial analysts towards Gold has not led very quickly to a drop in the Gold price. This one has been no different. What we do not yet know is if Gold has "finished" its correction yet. Sure, the spot future price jumped $US 32.60 on January 16, but don't forget that it began the week with a fall of $US 34.00.
It would seem that as "volatility" calms down to some extent in the paper markets in the lead up to the "changing of the guard" at the White House next week, Gold becomes more volatile.
Next Tuesday, January 20, Mr Obama becomes the President of the United States. This weekend, and it is a long weekend in the US with Monday, January 19 being the Martin Luther King Holiday, the US Treasury is working around the clock once again trying to shore up a banking system which is once again coming apart at the seams.
Meanwhile, financial headlines in the US are becoming more "surreal" by the day. Here's a sample of one, taken at random, reporting on the stock market action on Wall Street on January 16 - Wall Street Rebounds After Banks Report Big Losses.
If your memory stretches back that far, you will remember the halcyon days of the "dot com" bubble at the end of the 1990s when the bigger the loss reported, the higher the stock price went. The difference back then was that none of the "dot coms" were too big to fail, so they all did. If you doubt it, get hold of a ten-year NASDAQ chart and take a look at it. The banks, on the other hand, clearly ARE too big to fail. Hence the "Wall Street rebound". The reasoning goes like this: "Since the banks are too big to fail, the government will continue to bail them out. Since the government will continue to bail them out, they are 'safe'. Government bailouts always work, they HAVE to work, the banks are too big to fail."
What is lost in this little circle of reasoning is a rather important point. The banks in question have ALREADY failed. The proof of this resides in the hundreds of $US Billions which has already been injected into them, in the eradication of official interest rates by the Fed, and in the current frantic activity of the Treasury to set up a "bad bank" which will take over the "illiquid" (read worthless) "assets" from the books of these same banks.
The reason why the commercial banking system in the US and in every other "developed" nation is essential (too big to fail) to the government is the essential services they provide in perpetuating the fiat money system. In any system based on full "faith and credit" - AND NOTHING ELSE - the credit will flow just as long as the faith is maintained. Banks can happily go about their business stockpiling government IOUs as "reserves" and creating new money out of thin air in ever increasing quantities by "crediting" it to their customers' accounts. Mr Bernanke and Mr Paulson are of one mind and one voice in proclaiming at every opportunity that (to qoute Mr Bernanke this week) - "our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit."
This is quite literally true. Mr Bernanke's (and Mr Obama's when he takes office next week) economic system IS critically dependent on the free flow of credit. The days when money was brought into existence by crude coin "clipping" or printing are long gone. Modern money creation methods are almost totally dependent on inducing people to borrow and spend, and the banks are the vital middlemen in this process. The problem for the government is acute when their banking system can no longer perform this vital function. As such a situation worsens, the "responsibility" for borrowing new money into existence falls more and more directly on the government. Hence Mr Bernanke's lowering of official US rates to ZERO last month. Hence the just announced US government budget deficit of $US 485.2 Billion for the first THREE MONTHS of fiscal 2009. Hence the widely rumoured plans that the Fed will start to directly buy US Treasury debt paper (thereby monetising it) as early as next week.
What financial and monetary officials in the US (and almost everywhere else) are in the process of doing is acting to destroy the viability of their "money" in an attempt to rescue their banks - the conduit for getting their "money" into circulation without having to actually "print" it. The end result of their actions will be a destruction of the money as a viable medium of exchange and there is, as yet, nothing on the horizon to suggest they are going to stop.
In such circumstances, those who foresee a "good year for Gold" are certainly doing so on very good grounds indeed. The gyrations in the Gold price this week is just one more indication that the ultimate choice about what to use as money is getting closer. So are the desperate measures now being publically discussed by Treasurers and central bankers everywhere. And next Tuesday, it all lands on Mr Obama's desk.
gold shaping up for a short
risk defined at 890 , possibly close to printing wave 2 before wave 3 takes gold much lower.
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 20 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 20, 2009 at 6:54 pm
Several noteworthy events occurred today which impacted gold trading in the US. First and most importantly were developments along the currency front. The British Pound was utterly mauled as news came out that the Royal Bank of Scotland had incurred the largest loss in British corporate history. If that was not bad enough, shares of Lloyds Banking Group fell by nearly 50% at one point in today’s trading as the market greeted the Bank of England’s rescue plan for the banks and the economy with a resounding THUD. The fear is that interest rates are falling to near zero and that the British economy is in horrific shape. Investors are also looking at the details of the rescue plan and are voicing concerns as to how this massive increase in debt is ever going to be repaid. Sound familiar?
News of continued downgrades in sovereign nation debt in and around the Eurozone sent the Euro into the toilet as it dropped to its lowest level since early December last year.
Now those of us who have been accustomed to watching the action of gold on a daily basis would have generally expected gold to drop alongside of the Euro especially as the Dollar went on another of its rip-roaring short squeezes amid panic buying. However, something happened related to this currency movement that caused a complete reversal of the norm. Gold in Sterling terms shot to a brand new all time high at the London PM Fix coming in at 612.307 while Gold priced in Euro terms came in at 661.383 coming in just shy of its all time high PM Fix of 663.352 made back in October of last year. Gold traders in New York looked over at that and decided that they needed to get out if they were short or get in if they were out! In other words, what looks to be a genuine flight to the safety of gold has begun in Europe. And why not? With US Treasuries paying next to nothing and several European nation government bonds being downgraded, where else can those who are fearful of what is occurring go with their life’s savings? If I were a bond holder and looked ahead at the plethora of new debt being issued, supply of such magnitude that the numbers send the mind reeling, I would seriously doubt that demand would be able to keep up with it.
What we are seeing is gold trading as a currency – something that has repeatedly been echoed at this site now for years especially in the face of repeated deflationist claims that gold would sink alongside of the rest of the commodity world. Keep this important fact in mind. Gold is a currency; it is only a commodity when there is general trust in paper money. Any fears or concerns about the stability or trustworthiness of any fiat currency will send money scurrying into gold. It is now evident that is occurring in Europe. It WILL OCCUR here in the US at some point in the not too distant future.
The second noteworthy item affecting gold was the price action in the expiring February crude oil contract. After dropping to a new yearly low, it rebounded sharply taking out the previous day’s highs as shorts began covering and bottom pickers began moving in. One day does not a trend make but I am keeping a very close eye on this market as crude oil, whether we like it or not, has become a sort of barometer for the rest of the commodity complex as a whole. Higher crude prices would only serve to bring in additional buying support into the gold market.
Technically gold blasted through two overhead resistance areas with seemingly little to no opposition. The first one at $840 was gone without gold breaking a sweat; the latter zone near $860 also was breached as buy stop momentum carried prices through it sending the shorts reeling before bullion bank selling came in and managed to suck up all the bids and drop it back below this level. The inability of gold to close strongly above the $860 level reinforces it as a significant barrier with $880 still lurking above that as the opposition to a move to the $1000 level. Support lies now at $840 and then below that near the $820 level.
The mining shares, as indicated by the HUI and the XAU, showed a very strong disconnect from the broader US equity markets which went one way (down) while they went the other (up). Both indices have recaptured the 10 and 20 day moving averages after a perfect bounce off of the 50 day moving average last week. This is quite bullish action with the next barrier to both indices their former double tops make back in late December and early January of this year. Expect to see shorts try to hold the line there for if they fail, a trending action will be highly likely.
It is difficult for me to see where the buying came from that pushed the Dollar higher seeing that Treasuries were hit hard while equities were also taken down sharply. If anyone was busy running into the US Dollar as a safe haven play, I sure did not see it.
Bonds are weaker today after getting hit hard overnight but seem to be holding above the session low with continuing weakness in equities supportive.
Click link below to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...d1230pmcdt.pdf
I dunno dumbass. You can count all the waves you want but I think people (especially in the UK right now) are losing faith in the banking system, that means they are wanting to hold REAL MONEY . . . have you seen the results for the big banks during the first 20 days of 2009? Looks like the banks are taking their final dying breath. How long before the rush to the exits starts in the US?
Bank of America -77%
Wells Fargo Bank -60%
Citigroup -39%
JP Morgan -58%
Barclays -42%
Deutsche Bank -52%
This is on top of last years MASSIVE loss of market cap.
We are getting closer to a total collapse of the financial system.
Got gold?
the bearish gartley that i identified some time ago isnt performing as I might expect - but the fat lady hasnt finished the song yet either....
Gold hits NZ$ record prices reported in the Herald today
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10552951
i think our time frames may be some what different , im only interested in technical set ups for a trade maybe running a few weeks ,rather than your bigger picture fundemental observations.
i still feel if the banking system can hang on for another few weeks i may make some money on a short with a clearly defined risk.
but there's always an alternative count !
Am I wrong here? Seems like a sustained pop above $860 or a spike above $880 would signal a definite breakout . . .
Tonight's London session should be very, very interesting :)
Attachment 1195
$859.50 . . . . Ping!
Attachment 1197
Almost predictable . . .
$859.25 . . . Peeooow!
Attachment 1198
Do we think there are people in London and NY right now who are intent on making gold "Behave" . . . I think YES!
Hopefully gold can overcome their pricing "boom". This is a case study in gold cartel manipulation.
shasta, seems to me that gold started selling off sharply a good hour before the dollar started to turn up and the Euro started to turn down. Classic signs of a gold price attack by the bullion banks. It'll be interesting to see the final results of the session but I believe that from a banking and confidence perspective, gold needs to be controlled - tonight! Look for the CRIMEX to up the ante when it opens in a couple of hours.
I'd be very happy to be wrong here, but these counter intuitive moves have become so obvious.
[quote=Aussie;240762]Am I wrong here? Seems like a sustained pop above $860 or a spike above $880 would signal a definite breakout . . .
Tonight's London session should be very, very interesting :)
Hi Aus, a close above $880 would be a strong signal, or may even be the breakout that we are waiting for.
Quite a battle last night. Look at that 860 line. 3 days in a row of relentless defense. Gold clearly wants to move higher but is being deliberately capped. Anyone who does not believe that the gold price is "managed" needs to open their eyes and do some investigating. 860 is a deep line in the sand for the gold cartel. Every rally was met with selling action. This tells me that gold is at a critical juncture. A pop above and it should be propelled into the 900's, a breakdown from here will slow things down . . . there is a lot of positive price pressure if the bulls can push it through. Let's hope.
Attachment 1200
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 22 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 22, 2009 at 3:41 pm
The British Pound continues its horrid decline falling to a 23 year low against the US Dollar as events in Britain are rapidly spiraling out of control. The monetary authorities’ plan to rescue the banks there has been met with skepticism by investors while a genuine, and I might add, well-founded, fear of just who it is that is supposedly going to buy all this debt that the government is issuing which is blowing the fiscal budget deficit to kingdom come. We have a combination of a government spending itself into the drink while its stagnating economy produces fewer tax receipts. This point has not been lost on gold which once again today made yet another all time record high in terms of sterling.
One has to look at what is happening to the Pound with a great deal of sadness. Consider the once mighty British Pound, also called Sterling because it was at one time as good as silver, was the global reserve currency when Britannia ruled the seas. Its decline, which is completely due to its feckless political leaders who like ours here cannot seem to restrain spending their citizenry’s money and that of those not yet even born, is a frightening harbinger of what greets the US Dollar should we continue on our current course. From what I can see regarding the new Administration’s policies, coupled with a Congress completely taken over by those who are salivating at spending upwards of another $1 trillion, the US Dollar is doomed to follow the same course of Sterling. To say that it was inevitable is to allow those responsible to escape the blame. All of it was completely avoidable but it would have required statesmen who had the long term interests of the nation’s monetary future in mind rather than gutless politicians who lacked the courage to do what was right for the LONG TERM, even if it cost them their seats in the halls of power because of the hardship that it would inflict in the SHORT TERM.
“I will make mere lads their princes and capricious children will rule over them”. (Isaiah 3:4)
There is increasing chatter coming out of the Forex arena of intervention possibilities by both the Swiss monetary authorities and those of Japan. Both the Swissie and the Yen have been the beneficiaries of carry trade unwinding made possible because of ultra low interest rates in those respective nations. As hedge funds shed risk due to the deteriorating global economic news, these trades are being reversed or unwound with the result that players have been forced to buy Swiss Francs and Japanese Yen to repay the loans that were borrowed in terms of those currencies which were then used to purchase securities denominated in other currencies that paid a higher yield. It was a money making ATM machine while it lasted. The result has been to push both of these currencies strongly higher at the very same time that monetary authorities all around the globe are wanting to see their currencies weaken in an effort to maintain their export-related business. I am not sure how much damage the Swiss could inflict on the specs in regards to the Franc but I am under no illusions whatsoever when I say that the Bank of Japan is not to be trifled with should they decide to come from their lairs and punish the spec longs in the Yen. “Been there, done that,” is my motto and that has come from getting taken out to the woodshed by these guys once too often. So far, it is just rumors but only a fool would ignore it.
The Euro is struggling with those sovereign debt downgrades of Greece, Spain and now Portugal. That continues to feed the move to gold which is occurring in Europe as today the gold price in Euro terms hit a new all time record at the London PM Fix coming in at €663.376.
The Dollar is going to have its own issues to deal with as investors who were stuffing themselves full of US Treasuries recently are now disgorging them at an alarming rate. Today’s catalyst for the bond sell off was comments by the Obama Administration’s Treasury Secretary designee, Timothy Geithner, who accused the Chinese of manipulating their currency. Note to Geithner – you do not accuse your biggest creditor of doing the things that your own government has been doing and expect them to continue using their savings to buy your too-numerous-to-number debt issuances.
IF you have not taken a look at the long bond chart, do yourself a favor and see what happens when supply overwhelms demand. Bonds have now broken down below their 50 day moving average and appear headed down to the 100 day unless they can reverse course very quickly. The weekly chart shows a solid topping formation in place with the next level of support near 125^12. The bonds have been very tricky to call because anyone with a lick of sense knows that they were in a bubble but gauging when exactly a bubble has popped is sometimes a bit more difficult than it would seem mainly because it is easy to underestimate the effect produced by fear on a market. Markets are anything but rational – do not ever forget that.
I should also point out that the Gold/Bond ratio, a measure of investor’s preference for a safe haven choice, has been decidedly in favor of gold over the last couple of weeks. I will attempt to get an updated chart up later today for your reference. No doubt serious-minded investors are looking at the Treasury International Capital Flows data as well as the coming US government spending orgy alongside of these Euro zone debt downgrades and are saying to themselves, “the Hell with paper”.
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be burning through its share of reserves with the speed of a wildfire as they attempt to put a floor beneath the disappearing ruble. I will get a Gold in ruble terms chart up today later on – it too is amazing.
This brings me to another point – I see one way only for those nations which are cranking up the printing presses to warp speed to avoid complete and utter insolvency – they will have to devalue their currencies against gold and inflate the debt away. I am not a statistician or a mathematician, but I cannot wrap my mind around the amount of debt being created by so many nations and envision any other scenario in which any of it has a snowball’s chance in hell of ever getting repaid. Either that or the current monetary system collapses and a new Bretton Woods type accord replaces it. When we talk about a soaring gold price we are in effect talking about the devaluation of paper currencies – it is one and the same thing for all practical purposes.
All of this is serving to put a strong floor of support beneath the gold market which’s resiliency is beginning to resemble that of a cork’s. It keeps bobbing up to the surface after getting pushed down by bullion bank selling at the Comex.
The wedge formation which is revealed on the daily gold chart that begins with the July 2008 high and the mid-October 2008 low appears to be attempting to resolve itself in favor of the upside with the top of that line coming in near the $880 region. That level is taking on more and more significance as a technical barrier and should gold be able to punch through the selling that the bullion banks are throwing into its path here near the $860 level, they will be pushed back to that line as a defense. If they can be pushed off of that hill, gold will have broken out in US Dollar terms into a trending move. Expect a battle at that level therefore by the gold haters. Momentum indicators on the daily gold chart are all positive with the price above all of the major moving averages. The only bit of a fly in the ointment is that the 10 day moving average remains below the 20 day but it has turned higher which is a plus. The last reaction in gold a few trading sessions ago took it down into the confluence of the 50 day and 100 day moving average from which is sharply bounced, a very strong technical signal.
Equities are falling apart with news from Microsoft about job layoffs hitting stocks hard. After all, if the darling Tech Sector cannot even escape the carnage, what can? Quick answer – check out the mining sector which again is putting in a valiant effort to divorce itself from the broader equity market action. The HUI and the XAU are both in positive territory as I write this. Whether they can hold onto their slim gains is unclear at this point in the session but the fact that they are remaining afloat even with a lead anchor tied to their feet is at least somewhat encouraging. I might add that should the HUI be able to clear the 288 level, it has a good shot at 305-310. The XAU has short term resistance near the 120 level and if it can best that should go on to test 125-127. Momentum indicators on the daily charts of both indices look positive but if we get a move higher, I would want to see the RSI get above the 75 level.
Gold deliveries in the expiring January contract reached 161,700 ounces with today’s assignments while registered warehouse stocks have actually shown a decline below the 2.8 million ounce mark (Someone needs to the call the Comex guys and have them reign in that fellow who reported the drawdown – what was he possibly thinking?).
After bouncing yesterday, crude oil bounced back down today. To a certain extent, its welfare is tied to that of the equity markets where as a general rule, lower stock prices have been sucking it lower while higher prices have been encouraging bottom pickers. Anytime we see weakness in crude oil, many of the other commodity markets do tend to soften as this plays into the deflationist camp’s views which still have a wide following out there. For the sake of clarity, I do not agree with the view of those in that camp who predict gold getting pulled lower as a result of deflation. My reason is that their view fails to see gold as a currency and not a commodity. That is the reason I continue to send charts up from time to time detailing the price of gold measured in other currencies besides the US Dollar. The deflationists are narrow-minded in their view of gold considering it only in US Dollar terms. How one can say that the price of gold is going to weaken because of a deflationary environment while at the exact same time the yellow metal is soaring into new all time high in terms of the British Pound, the Ruble, the Euro, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and so on? It seems to me many of the proponents of this view have some serious “splaining” to do. Hint – gold is a currency guys – stop looking at it like it was a commodity.
Lastly – trading volume and open interest in the February 2009 contract will be waning as April will take on most active month status.
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/...trader-dan-51/
By TINA LAW - The Press | Friday, 23 January 2009International investors keen to get their hands on New Zealand gold are helping push the price of the precious metal to record highs.
The price of gold sold in New Zealand reached NZ$1745 an ounce on Wednesday, which was also influenced by a drop in the New Zealand dollar. Gold fell slightly yesterday and was trading around $1735 an ounce.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4826904a13.html
Looks like gold is setting up for a re-match tonight. Looks like it'll be another late night . . . :D
Attachment 1203
whats your trading strategy aussie?
Peat, I'm not a trader. I don't trade gold and I don't do futures. I have very strong convictions about the fundamentals, so I'm heavily invested for the long term. To me, the market is too manipulated and too volatile to trade safely. I would not want to be caught out of the market when weekly moves like this start happening . . .
Attachment 1204
I have simply accumulated a nice physical position which I intend to hold until such time as I feel comfortable selling . . . and I will sell it and move into other assets at the right time - gold is not forever.
I also hold gold and silver mining shares. Some of which I trade.
It's up more than $5 . . . don't look now but it's just gone vertical skewering $860!
Attachment 1205
A picture tells a thousand words . . . what a week, what a battle, what a result. Gold battled 860 all week and needed to break convincingly above 880 to continue rising . . . and rise it did - even in the face of a still relatively strong USD which makes the move all the more solid and remarkable.
Gold is ratcheting itself tighter and tighter preparing for an absolute explosion when the USDX starts to break down. Read my earlier post from Bill Holter at Le Metropole to see around the corner at what's coming - and fast.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpos...8&postcount=80
London has been in a real panic this week. Seems to me that a lot of well heeled Brits have been watching their wealth slip away as the £ is getting flushed. Last night that panic spread to NY as the cartel banks were caught short and had to cover. If things continue to devolve, as they must since the world's politicians have pushed their financial positions past the point of no return, then there is ONLY one safe refuge, and that is that barbarous relic - Gold.
Attachment 1210
I'll leave you with this thought to illustrate the concept of just how little gold is available for purchase today and how incredibly cheap it still is . . .
One percent of America’s population holds 90% of its wealth. Imagine those 3 million people try to buy a mere $100,000 of gold at $900oz - a tiny amount for the richest people in America. This is about 12,000 tonnes, which is probably ALL the remaining central bank gold in existence today. Now, imagine these people want to invest more than that - much more. Now multiply this for all of the richest people in the entire world!
This is why I believe that in the near future when the real panic sets in, gold will rise to prices that people today would laugh at and find totally unbelievable. So as far as the average punter is concerned, the wealthy will make gold simply unavailable. Period.
Even in Weimar Germany in the 1920's, those smart enough to see what was happening were able to exchange their marks for gold backed Dutch guilders or even British pounds.
The situation we face today IS FAR MORE GRAVE than the 1920's because ALL currencies today are 100% fiat and yet very few people have any concept of what this means. People are trusting governments to manage their wealth when in my opinion, such trust in completely unwarranted .
In a global currency collapse which will likely be precipitated by a USD/Treasury meltdown, there will be no safe "go to" currency. Gold and silver will be the ONLY refuge.
To all; the coming next few weeks should be very telling. The action witnessed last week in my opinion was the market beginning its dicounting process of the future hyperinflation to come. Because of the size and scope of current "malinvestments" globally, we could watch "paper values" literally disintegrate over a very short time frame. For those that have not done the math, when a currency implodes and approaches zero a cup of coffee approaches infinity in that destroyed currency.
The way I see Bonds, the Dollar, and Gold both fundamentally and technically is that paper is gasping its last breath by trying to stay ahead of the financial tsunami while Gold has spent 9-10 months in a coiling phase. If the system holds together, I can envision the famed $1,650 number coming into play on this run. If the system fails, you might as well pick a number. If the Dollar is headed to oblivion and a cup of coffee is approaching infinity then what kind of number do you suppose an ounce of Gold will sport?
Last summer everyone was "short the Dollar", I believe that the short speculators have been blown away and now we will witness the most gigantic and over owned long in history go to the slaughter house. This Dollar long position took years and years to create and the Fed is doing it's damnedest to continue "spreading the wealth" [ha ha]. Now we will get to see what happens to a market when there is only ONE BUYER. In the Treasury market this one buyer is none other than The Federal Reserve. The Fed will have the job of buying gobs and gobs of Treasuries, the only problem will be that the Fed must actually "print" [digitally create] the Dollars for these purchases. This monetization will occur at the same time that the rest of the world is also selling Treasuries. We will witness humongous new supply along with secondary supply as the world regurgitates their current "safe haven" holdings. But what to do with your "safe capital" once you have exited Treasuries? Jump to another frying pan made of paper?
I see no other mathematical possibility other than a mass inflow of capital into Gold as petrified capital scurries for cover. The current setup for the greatest transfer of wealth in all of history could not be more obvious now, yet before every major market move in history the obvious was ignored. I guess it was ignored until it became "too" obvious. For those who are looking, WE ARE THERE!
The current market capitalization of the global mining industry cannot be much more than $250 billion, this is chump change when you consider how much has already been spent and how much more has been pledged by governments across the globe. The fact that this industry is so small will create massive dislocations in price when large players want to enter the arena. I can envision $20 stocks moving a point or more on less than 1,000 shares changing hands. I say this because the weak hands have already been washed of their shares, all that remains are the strong hands and firm minds. The moves witnessed in early '06 by the mining shares will pale in comparison to the phase I believe we are now entering.
If it weren't for the social and economic chaos that I believe is right around the corner, I would suggest that owning metals and the miners will be more fun than imaginable. It will probably turn out to be a matter of survival!
Regards, Bill H.
"When Treasury yields start to rise, the jig is all but UP."
(Gold This Week - January 16, 2009)
Since you are reading this you will almost certainly know that Gold's upward trajectory steepened dramatically on January 23, the spot future price climbing above $US 900 in intraday trading in New York and closing for the day up $US 37.00 at 895.80. Over this shortened trading week (January 19 was the Martin Luther King Jr holiday in the US), Gold rose almost $US 56 and climbed back into the "black" for the year in $US terms. On top of that, trading volume and open interest both increased markedly (especially on January 23) on US markets.
With January still having a week left to go, Gold has now been through an almost $US 100 trading range on the month, sliding fairly dramatically over the first two weeks only to recoup all those losses and more since January 15 when it closed at $US 807.30. Of course, the global financial system has once again worsened since then with the growing crisis in financial stocks and banks all over the world. But something else has worsened, and this one is far more potentially damaging than any crash, however severe, in the stock prices of the world's major banks.
On December 18, 2008, two days after the US Fed in effect eliminated its "Fed Funds" rate by cutting it to a target range between ZERO and 0.25 percent - US Treasury 30-year bond yields hit an all time low of 2.54 percent. By the beginning of 2009, the yield had risen to 2.79 percent. On January 15 as Gold hit its January low, the 30-year bond yield was creeping higher, closing at 2.87 percent on the day. By the end of last week, the yield had not moved, it closed at 2.87 percent on January 16.
But THIS week (January 19 - 23) the yield on the US Treasury's 30-year debt paper has SOARED - rising from 2.87 percent to 3.31 percent! That has led to the biggest plunge (don't forget with debt paper, yields and prices on the secondary markets go in opposite directions) in the 30-year bond since 1982! Yields at the short end of the Treasury yield curve where the Fed has more control have not (yet) moved up. The same is NOT the case in the longer-term debt paper.
Remember, especially in times of fiscal and/or financial strife, Gold and the yields on debt paper - especially longer-term debt paper - go in the SAME direction. This week has provided a stellar example of this principle. On the week, $US Gold prices are up 6.66 percent, the price of the US Treasury's 10-year bond is down 5.09 percent and the thirty-year paper has fared even worse than that.
What most followers of Gold know is that the stellar decade for the metal in US Dollar terms was the 1970s. What some of them forget is that the 1970s was also known as the (all but) "fatal decade" for US Treasury debt paper. Yields rose throughout the decade as higher and higher rates were demanded by domestic and international investors alike to compensate for the "profigate" (for the time) spending policies of the US government and the downward pressure put on the US Dollar as a result.
Last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke was quoted as saying that "our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit." Of course it is, "our economic system" is a CREDIT MONEY system, its underpinnings are debt, the flip side of credit. Confidence in the money stands or falls on confidence in the debt which "supports" it and that, in turn, stands or falls on the perceived ability of the debtor to service and eventually repay the debt. Consider the amount of debt that the US Treasury is expected to "sell" this year to fund the US government AND the US banking and financial system. Consider the perceived capacity of the US economy to service this debt. We'll leave aside the question of repayment, the last time that US Treasury debt actually FELL year on year was 1969. In 1969, the TOTAL of funded US Treasury debt was about ONE THIRD of the $US 825 Billion "stimulus package" Mr Obama is promising his nation.
Every new US Dollar created by whatever means lessens the value of every existing US Dollar. Worse, as the amounts of new Dollars issued grows, they erode the facility of the US Dollar as a medium of exchange, a MONEY. The principle is the same for any credit-based money - and there is no other kind of money in circulation anywhere in the world.
The spike in US long-term Treasury interest rates this week is ominous in the EXTREME! It is literally not possible for the rest of the world to "buy" the quantity of new debt proposed by the Treasury even if ALL global savings were marshalled for the task. The quantity of such savings would not buy more than 30 percent of it. This points with deadly accuracy towards a situation in which the Treasury, in order to sell the debt, is going to have to offer a higher rate of interest to potential buyers to offset the rapidly growing risk of holding the paper. The same thing happened in the 1970s, but the fiscal, financial and economic situation of the US in 2009 is VASTLY worse than it was in those days.
As the amount of Mr Obama's "stimulus package" is revealed and as more and ever more bailouts are deemed "required" by those so desperate to keep the financial system and debt-based monetary system standing upright, the pressure on interest rates in the US and everywhere else will grow. As the HUGE spike in Treasury yields at the longer-end this week make perfectly plain, the process has already begun.
Gold has simply done what it always does in times of growing doubt and fear over the future purchasing power of what is issued by governments as "money". It has risen in terms of that same "money". In $US terms, Gold rose sharply this week. In terms of the Euro, the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars, the British Pound, the Russian Rouble and MANY other global currencies, Gold hit new all time highs on January 23.
stopped out on last trade having another nibble on the short side
downtrend line hit
divegent rsi
61.8 fib level hit , 892 sl 930 target 800
Attachment 1221
It is not normal corrections which grates many of us in the GATA camp. It is that The Gold Cartel makes their moves at the same times, in the same places, for the same reasons. As a result, gold is training at $1,000+ per ounce less than where it would have been had they not been around.
As happens so often of late, gold was hit in the Access Market yesterday, but came back to go above $900 when London opened. Enter The Gold Cartel at their usual time, with the dollar lower, and aided by rumors of potential German central bank selling, the same rumor which surfaces on a yearly basis whenever gold has put in a big run . . .
. . . I was trading this morning in London when a rumor suddenly appeared that the German Bundesbank was selling Gold. The timing was of course perfect, and hit 30 mins after London came out buying. The rumor hit at exactly 8.30 am London time and caused gold to drop from 901.38 to 883.04 in a matter of 50 mins. Its amazing how these rumors come out when the boyz are under pressure.
Still waiting for that old treasure of a rumor of IMF phantom gold to get wheeled out! Its uncanny how they come out at rollover time LOL! Then of course the news breaks.. 'Bundesbank spokeswoman Madleen Petschmann said market rumors were unfounded that the Bundesbank had increased its activity in the gold market'.So it turns out they are buyers!
What I love about those dirty tricks is that it shows they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Not too smart showing your hand like that.
However The black boxes don't understand rumors as the boyz well know so the funds mindlessly get milked yet again.
After plummeting to $881.40, gold recovered to $895.25 for the PM Fix due to strong demand for physical market gold. As Plan A hadn’t worked out like they planned, The Gold Cartel reverted to their standard Plan B, which is to nail the price following the PM Fix, which is just what they did … despite a continued lower dollar at the time. Treasury Secretary Geithner has not skipped a beat conducting his cabal orchestra, just like Paulson ... no surprise here, as he has been perfectly groomed with his Goldman Sachs/Treasury background.
For balance.
It may be a while before gold makes a BIG move higher. The problem is that gold jewelry demand (the biggest source of demand for gold) is falling even as investment demand rises. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, just expanded its holdings to a record 832.88 metric tonnes. Gold holdings at SPDR are now more than 50 tons higher than a month ago. This battle of forces could slow gold's rise for some time.
Sean Broderick 28th Jan 09
____________________________
From a commodity adviser sent today to me (30/1) by e-mail
THERE IS A GOOD RUMOR IN THE WORLD MARKET THAT GERMANY IS GOING TO SELL OFF IT'S GOLD RESERVES. SO SELL GOLD IF BREAK $870 WITH SL $ 920 TARGET $ 820 - $800
Hey Arco, a couple of thoughts . . .
1) The jewelry industry is a large consumer of gold but from what I understand it also it also sources a lot of it's material from the scrap market. In many Asian and Middle Eastern countries jewelry and investment gold demand are the same thing - that's why people buy it over there. We buy coins and ingots, in their culture they buy chains necklaces, pendents etc. It serves the same purpose. Western demand for investment gold as well as central bank demand (China) will skyrocket in the months and years ahead - all against a backdrop of declining gold production.
2) The German rumor was a beat up, nothing more.
"THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE SPOT BULLION bounced from an early 2% drop in London on Wednesday, picking up to $889 per ounce after the German Bundesbank denied rumors it was selling bullion to help fund the federal government's new €50 billion economic stimulus package . . . "
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...009-01-28.html
3) As far as The SPDR Gold Trust is concerned, HSBC is it's custodian and investors of GLD have plenty to be worried about . . . here's a review of their prospectus from a contributer to Le Metropole Cafe.
_______________________________
HSBC is the custodian of GLD. (I am using the S1 prospectus filed with the SEC on 11/16/04). If it is the case that GLD is leasing out the gold in GLD, and if HSBC were to go bust, the GLD Prospectus clearly states on page 13 that "gold held in the Trust's unallocated gold account and any Authorized Participant's unallocated gold will not be segregated from the Custodian's assets. If the Custodian becomes insolvent, its assets may not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized Participant.
In addition, in the event of the Custodian's insolvency, there may be a delay and costs in incurred indentifying the bullion held in the Trust's allocated gold account. The unallocated gold accounts are the accounts used to hold gold being deposited into the Trust, or being redeemed from the Trust. That is not "segregated" from the Custodian's assets means that bars of gold are not specifically identified as gold that belongs to the Trust vs. assets that belong to HSBC.
The prospectus further states that in the event of insolvency by HSBC, the Trust becomes an unsecured creditor of HSBC with respect to unallocated gold. Leased gold would either be held in unallocated accounts moving in and out of the Trust, or the physical gold might not even be in the Trust, as subcustodians as described below, could lease out the gold and no one would know or would have the legal ability to find out.
As for the "allocated" gold - that which has been specifically identified as property of the Trust and held in a segregate account - in the case of HSBC going insolvent, the Trust can claim ownership of the properly allocated gold, but will be subject to the liquidator freezing access to ALL gold in ALL accounts held by the Custodian, including gold held in the Trust Allocated Account.
It gets worse. HSBC has the ability to appoint subcustodians to hold gold for the trust, and the subcustodians can appoint further subcustodians (page 12-13). From page 12:
Because neither the Trustee nor the Custodian oversees or monitors the activities of subcustodians who may hold the Trust's gold, failure by the subcustodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold could result in a loss to the Trust.
Worse yet, the Prospectus states that there will be no written contractual agreements between subcustodians and the Custodian or the Trustee (page 11-12). AND the Trustee has no right to visit the premises of the subcustodian to inspect the gold or examine the subcustodians records.
Essentially, what all this says is that in the event of insolvency by HSBC, the shareholders of the Trust may in fact have no ability to capture ANY part of their investment in GLD shares. I have further work and analysis to do, but given what I have researched so far, I am quite stunned that anyone would invest money into GLD, as there are absolutely NO shareholder protections against the gold in GLD not being there, or for the shareholders to assert specific claims of ownership. Given that HSBC may be on the brink of insolvency as per Jessel's source, anyone who buys GLD thinking they are buying gold is risking losing everything - that is, being "Madoffed."
Nope not yet....
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24...74957275390625
Where's the Gold Cartel, when you really need them to manipulate that gold price lower?
stopped out for nada.
anyone fancy going to auckland sharetrader meeting , we havent caught up for a while , Peat Arco anyone ?
WOW... looks like gold maybe heading for $1000 mark again.
wow nearly $1500ozAUD wasn't long ago gold bugs though $1000aud was a great achivement now add it the fact Gold producers costs are reducing going be some nice gains in some of the ASX jnrs
DIO producing 90k oz ,IRN sitting on share of a massive copper/gold deposit,neither hegded
HGD,OGC also worth buying in the dips
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 30 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 30, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Dear CIGAs,
Gold buying accelerated as Europe opened for trading in the overnight hours here in the States with the currency crisis the main factor propelling European based gold prices sharply higher. Paper is definitely OUT in Europe and metal is in. I suppose what is so revealing about this is that is marks an abrupt reversal from a pattern that has been seen for most of the better part of the entire near-9 year bull market in gold. Asian buying would take the metal higher whereupon the return of Europe based traders to their desks, it would be summarily derailed around the 2:00 AM CST period. What is happening now is that the price is accelerating higher near or about this hour. It has become obvious that a sea-change in sentiment towards the yellow metal has occurred in Europe and particularly in Britain. With no where to put money for a safe haven as bonds become suspect, gold is seeing significant hedge fund activity which is beating back the incessant selling by the bullion banks. That buying drove Gold priced in Euro terms to another brand new, all-time high for the London PM Fix at €715.620. Euro gold has taken out €700, quite a significant feat! So much for the deflationists’ arguments…
Once trade moved into New York, the bullion banks resurfaced in force and attempt to stem the tide. Today they initially showed their hand near and above the $920 level. Their footprint is more than obvious for those who can read price charts. However, in what must have been quite a stunner to these bullies of the sand box, they were beaten back out of their castle as the bulls pushed right through their picket lines. They have been feverishly attempting to stem the rise near $920 as failure means the highs made back in September-October last year around the $940 level would then be in play. If those give way, $1000 is a given and they know it.
The fly in the gold ointment however is once again, the mining shares which were whacked well off their session highs in a near perfect copy of Monday’s performance. The battle for 310 in the HUI and 127 in the XAU is quite fierce as the trapped shorts seem to be literally mounting a life or death defense of those levels. So far the bulls simply cannot dislodge them from their lairs but the day is not done yet and the longs are also showing some mettle for a change as they push the indices back up off the session lows. A strong closing breach of those levels, especially coming at the end of the week and thus painting a very strong showing on the weekly price charts, is something that the shorts are desperately trying to prevent. They know that a technical breakout will bring even more money into the gold shares which will overwhelm them and that is the reason we are seeing such fierce opposition coming in near those levels. I am sure that they are quite concerned about the reported record inflows in the largest gold ETF – GLD. That is why observing this kind of fierce and determined selling in the face of what is evidently a significant move into all things gold is so noteworthy. Just who sells like this and does so in such huge size when the path of least resistance is up?
Technically gold has CONFIRMED yesterday’s bounce off of the top of the triangular consolidation formation – the downsloping trendline which it broke out above earlier this week and then came back down and touched before ricocheting sharply upward off of that same line. The price action in this market is textbook and its behavior is more like I have come to observe in a normal, freely-traded market, bullion bank capping efforts notwithstanding. The fact that it has been performing so well-behaved tells me that serious buying has come into this market, buying which makes itself known on any price dips. Simply put – the safe haven flow into bonds has completely dried up and gold has now become the go-to vehicle. (I will show this on the Gold/Bond ratio chart which I will send up later this afternoon or evening). If the funds will stick to their guns, there is no reason that they cannot dislodge the bullion banks out of their defensive lines since the fundamentals are on the side of the longs. Keep in mind that the gold universe is still rather small in size and that it does not take all that much money to push it around.
I will be switching to the April gold contract for analysis purposes last week as the February has gone into its delivery period. Speaking of that, delivery notices for the first day of the period were strong, not as strong as December’s which stunned many observers as it came in at 8,600. By contrast, February’s first day were a mere 1,644 or 164,400 ounces. While I am glad to see the bulls shoving the perma gold shorts around for a change, the way to drive a final nail in the coffin and put these vampires to rest for good is to continue taking delivery of the gold and physically removing it from the Comex warehouses. Without the backing of physical gold in the warehouses, the shorts haven’t a leg to stand on and can be easily defeated.
Open interest is still a miniscule 348,000 contracts, far, far off from the peak made back when gold took out $1,000 where it peaked above 593,000. Can you see why this market is in such a bullish posture with the open interest readings at such a low level and gold less than $80 away from the $1,000 level? The funds could add another 150,000 new longs and the open interest would still be almost 100, 000 off the peak! That is simply astonishing to this long-time trader. It is difficult trying to maintain a modicum of objectivity and not let one’s emotions cloud their judgment when analyzing this market simply because even contemplating another 100,000 new longs along, much less 150,000 or even 200,000 and $1500 gold would be a given. The bullion banks are going to have to absorb a tremendous amount of buying to merely keep gold from charging to $1000.
Resistance for gold is near the $938-$940 level and above that at $950. Support remains first near the $900 level and then at yesterday’s lows around the $880 level.
Equities continue swooning as further details of the government’s “stimulus” bill become known and the thing is seen for what it really is – a gigantic pork-ladened spending orgy which will do little in the way of creating any lasting jobs in the bill’s current form. Bonds still do not like it because they continue to remain focused on the enormous supply of debt coming down the road that is going to be created as a result of this boondoggle.
Click link to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...d1230pmcdt.pdf
...there was a news item on TV3 tonight, sorry just saw 1oz Kiwi gold coins and a guy talking about the start of an extremely golden bull run for the next 20 years...
Kind Regards
An interesting article by Clive Maund I stole of HC...
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
UBS raises 2009 gold forecast to $1,000/oz, ups silver, platinum
London (Platts)--4Feb2009UBS has raised its average gold price forecast to $1,000/oz for 2009, andexpects the strength in gold to pull prices for silver and platinum up alongwith it, the investment bank said Wednesday. "Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months asinvestors' fears about the current financial crisis and the possible outcomesfrom government efforts to support banks and economies have intensified," UBSsaid. "We believe that a doubling in investment demand (compared to 2007) is areasonable assumption considering the recent inflows into the gold ETFs, wherethe past six months of purchases has totalled 8.65 million oz, slightly morethan the full-year inflow of 8.1 million oz into these products in 2007," thecompany said. This figure is also consistent with the reports of physical investmentflows into bars and coins over the past six months and estimates by a UK-basedconsultancy GFMS of bar hoarding in the second half of 2008, UBS suggested. "Based on simple regression modelling we estimate that this will drivegold to an average $1,000/oz in 2009, from $700/oz previously," UBS said. "For2010 we have assumed that investment demand will fall back to the already highlevels seen in 2008, which generates a gold price of approximately $900/oz,and we see the gold price falling back further to $800/oz in 2011." RAISES 20089 SILVER FORECAST TO $14.75/OZ The company has also raised its silver price forecast for the period,noting that "compared to gold, silver does not have as wide an appeal as asafe-haven investment, the metal is not without its adherents: as gold moveshigher, silver tends to follow." UBS now sees silver averaging $14.75/oz in 2009 and $12.80/oz in 2010,from its previous forecasts of $8.40/oz and $8.95/oz, respectively. "The metal's greater proportion of industrial applications has seensilver underperform gold over the past year ... but a rising price environmentfor gold should see silver reverse some of this underperformance," UBS said. In addition, there are indications from the recent performance of silverthat the metal has been able to lose some of its industrial tarnish, the banksaid, adding that correlations with the copper price - which increased in2008 as silver fell sharply - have recently declined, while silver'scorrelation with gold has increased back toward historical norms. "Consequently we have made greater upgrades to the silver price comparedto gold," UBS said. "But despite this, silver's historically highervolatility, especially to the downside during times of correction, makes it ariskier investment than gold." PLATINUM 2009 FORECAST UP, PALLADIUM UNCHANGED UBS has raised its average platinum forecast for 2009 to $1,050/oz from$900/oz, and left its 2010 forecast unchanged at $1,100/oz. "Platinum very rarely trades at a discount to gold and when it does, thediscounts are short-lived," the bank noted. The market is seeing somesafe-haven buying, jewelry demand remains relatively buoyant compared to otherprecious metals, and the destocking by automotive companies which hit pricesin 2008 is unlikely to be repeated, UBS suggested. The bank left its forecast for palladium unchanged at $190/oz in 2009 and$233/oz in 2010. "We have made no changes to our forecasts for palladium, where theinterplay between limited safe-haven demand, ample above-ground stocks andpoor industrial demand has left the palladium market steady around our priorforecast levels," UBS said.Similar stories appear in Platts Metals Week.See more information at http://plattsmetals.platts.com
Instead of merely posting a link, i'll nominate the 3 stocks i think represent best value for the article above.
Gold - NEM: A 5m/oz+ Gold producer, no hedging, pays dividends
Silver - CXC: FY09 ramp up is for 23m/oz Silver & 140k/oz Gold
PGM's - PLA: A Platinum producer (+ other precious metals)
"My guess is the panic into precious metals is going to begin in earnest when the sovereign states start to default . . . Populations are only then going to realise the true implications of a broken banking system when the ability of their own government to keep the dream alive disappears."
,
Only a small percentage of people will be able to get into, and take advantage of, precious metals due to their high cost.
Even they will not be able to pop down to the dairy for a bread loaf with their Krugerrand or bar of silver.
Its a difficult situation, and a cure will have to be found. Life cant survive without some form of bartering 'token'
.
Agreed arco. Most people will not be able to buy gold, but the wealthy who can will TOTALLY swamp the market with buy orders and the price will react accordingly.
Silver has always been the metal for the masses, people who cannot afford gold WILL buy silver. The G/S ratio is currently very high at 70:1. This is why the potential for a silver price explosion is huge. $2,000 gold with a ratio of just 35:1 means $57 silver. That's a big increase over today's price.
I've never been a big buyer of either gold or silver bars, I have just a few of the nice Perth Mint bars. Personally I prefer recognized gold coins like Kiwi's, Krug's, Kangas, Philly's and Sovereigns etc and silver coins like American Eagles, Canadian Maple leafs are my favorites. There may be a bit of a premium, but there will always be a market for them.
Aussie
I noticed someone trying to sell a 1oz Krug on Trademe yesterday for $2000. I watched it and it was not sold.
Kruger Rand 1oz Fine Gold
Closed: Fri 6 Feb 7:41 pm (#200781642)
No bids
The price yesterday in gold value was about $1850 (today it would be $1716)
Some 1/10 oz Gold Eagles sold Tuesday at $225/230 which at todays value is $171.60 or about a 30% premium.
1 x 1/10 oz Gold $5 Eagle 1997 (Auction 2)
Closed: Tue 3 Feb 8:57 pm (#199970050)
Top bid:$230
Its seems to be hard to pick up reasonable value at the moment.
Yeah, I saw that too. I think it was a simple buy now price type sale wasn't it? He would have been better off to do an auction. I have seen some coins sell recently on TM for NZ$2,000.
Personally, I think it's naive to simply expect sellers to charge a NZD equivalent of the USD spot price. If you buy from a dealer you will be paying a 5% - 6% markup and then wait perhaps a few months for delivery.
Depending on who you are dealing with, during this time you can be financially exposed as your funds are "out there" in someone else's account until delivery. If it's with a solid, reputable dealer the chances of a problem are minimized but still there is an element of risk.
Since the middle of last year a two tiered market has developed. A COMEX "paper" market and the "real" physical metal market and the two markets have two different pricing structures.
What has emerged in the physical market is what I call an "availability premium". Meaning if you say . . . purchase on TM, you will have gold in your hand the next day. I think there is a very fair case in today's market for prices that are significantly over the spot price for those who want it and want it now.
Interesting interview with an investing icon . . .
"I believe now that we’re going to see capital gains opportunities in gold for 2009 and into the foreseeable future. The market has all the fundamentals that one would want right now. There’s a declining supply, which will decline even further because those who normally look for gold, the junior resource stocks, have been so hammered that we’re not going to see a lot of new exploration for some time.
The few companies that will be going into production will be a premium. The excess supply that used to come into the market, particularly from central banks, has dried up. We’re also seeing tremendous physical demand; in fact, throughout 2008, it was very difficult for people to acquire physical gold. Coins and bars that used to be readily available were in such demand that there became a shortage. In fact, if you wanted to purchase physical bullion, you were paying 10% or more above the spot price. People say that should have caused a dramatic rise in the gold price. The paper market is still driven by the COMEX, where the futures trade. Unfortunately, some people claim, that market has been manipulated. I can simply say that the paper market has not mirrored the physical market. I believe the physical demand eventually will overrun what is not happening in the paper market. Once that occurs and once we’re above a $1,000 and stay there for more than a week or a month, I think we’re going to see a lot more money pour into gold. I don’t know about $2,000 an ounce for gold, but once that money starts to pour in I still think $1,200 gold and $1,400 gold— even $1,500—is a very variable, useful and likely target."
More . . .
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/feb042009.html
Let's hope and pray the Mr. Key and Mr. English don't follow Australia's lead and send New Zealand down the road of massive deficit spending that will put us back into the debt trap of the 1980's . . .
The Revolt Of The Masses?
Just over a week ago, the Australian government under Mr Kevin Rudd came out with a plan to literally "inject" nearly $A 1000 into the bank accounts of almost every adult Aussie. He also revealed plans to borrow and spend the tidy sum of $A 118 Billion over the next four years. Why? To "rescue" Australia from recession.
This is not a joke, it is being shouted fervently by politicians, central bankers, Treasurers and eminent financial and economic "experts" all over the world. Some if not many of them in all likelihood actually believe it. After all, they have spent their entire lives with the absolute conviction that the solution to all problems, political and/or economic, is to do one of two things. They either regulate it or throw money at it.
Credit, they say, is the "life blood" of the economy. Consider, for a moment, the thoughts on the subject of Henry Hazlitt, an eminent economist and journalist from the past:
"There is a strange idea abroad, held by all monetary cranks, that credit is something that a banker gives to a man. Credit, on the contrary, is something a man already has. He has it, perhaps, because he already has marketable assets of a greater cash value than the loan for which he is asking. Or he has it because his character and past record have earned it. He brings it into the bank with him. That is why the banker makes the loan."
Henry Hazlitt - Economics In One Lesson - 1946
Compare this "old fashioned" insight with the modern practice of almost literally throwing "money" at people with total abandon and with a complete lack of discrimination. For decades, very few thought to wonder about where all this "money" was coming from. It had been almost universally accepted that economic health was measured by the volume of borrowing and then spending the borrowed money. Economics was cut in half with production discarded and consumption embraced as the only economic "problem" left to solve.
The lifeblood of an economy is wealth and the ONLY means of bringing wealth into existence is to PRODUCE it. Money is NOT wealth, it is merely an indispensible medium by which the wealth which exists can be exchanged between those who have brought it into existence. Wealth cannot be created out of thin air. And all the "deficit spending" and/or easy credit schemes in the world cannot PRODUCE it either.
What Mr Rudd in Australia and all his counterparts in all the capital cities of the world are staring at in horror is the inevitable end result of their own meddling. They have created a monster, an economy which is imploding because the artificial demand created by borrowing can no longer be sustained. To prattle about "preventing" a recession or "rescuing" a nation from recession is laughable. The world is IN recession. Productive capacity has for decades geared itself up to meet an artificially induced "demand" which is no longer sustainable. The economies of the world are littered with malinvestments, productive capacity for which the demand which only ever existed on paper or on computer screens has now literally evaporated. The gargantuan deflations in world stock, real estate and commodity markets have already taken place.
For almost two years now, people all over the world have been watching their governments haul interest rates down by main force, pump huge amounts of "liquidity" into banks and pile "stimulus" package after "stimulus" package into a system already choked with obviously unrepayable debt. People have lost paper fortunes on investments of almost all descriptions. And with every new nostrum and every new dollop of borrowed "money", they have watched the situation get still worse.
They are starting to stir.
A poll taken by an Australian paper shortly after it was announced asked Australians if they "approved" of the "stimulus" package announced by their Prime Minister. Fifty-one percent of those responding said no. In the UK, the announcement by the Bank of England this week that they were cutting official rates another 0.50% - to 1.00% - was met by a STORM of protest! The Bank was accused of an assault on savers. Even President Obama's stimulus bill is being seen in a harsher light by Americans. US polls show that support amongst Americans for the bill is falling fast with only 37 percent of respondents "backing" the legislation.
Unlike their political leaders, most so-called "ordinary people" are well aware that their nation is IN recession and that the recession is worsening with frightening rapidity. They have watched all the bailouts and the handouts. They have watched as interest rates have been obliterated. They are beginning to look with increasing suspicion at a situation in which the "seed corn" so vital to underpin any REAL recovery is being mercilessly attacked with the assault on interest rates.
There is a point where even the "full faith and credit" which underpins the entire monetary and financial structure of the world today can no longer command allegience. We are not at that point yet, but every new bailout plan and "stimulus" package brings it closer.
Gold is simply waiting in the wings.
Beware Cash4Gold and other gold-buying ripoffs
Fri Feb 6, 2009 11:41AM EST
See Comments (753)
Buzz up!on Yahoo!
http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/null__13...SmfwADhAx_sCfyI don't watch much broadcast TV, and when I do I skip as many commercials as possible, but even I have seen the incessant televised advertisements for a company called Cash4Gold, and I'm sure most of you have, too (they even had a Super Bowl ad). The company is being heavily promoted online as well.
The sell sounds great on the surface: You pack up all your old jewelry that you'll never wear again into an envelope and send it, insured, to Cash4Gold. They melt it down and cut you a check for the value of the gold. End of process. It sounds better than going to a pawn shop -- the process is simple and requires no personal interaction with an appraiser -- so what could go wrong?
A little online sleuthing finds that I'm not the only one who figures that if Cash4Gold has this much money to spend on TV ads, someone's getting the short end of the stick, and it's probably the people sending in their family heirlooms to be melted into ingots. The folks at Cockeyed.com put Cash4Gold to the test, rounding up a bunch of old rings, necklaces, and earrings, and taking them to a regular pawn shop to be appraised. The offer: $198 for the lot. They then sent the items to Cash4Gold and waited for a check in the mail. It arrived within a few days as promised... in the amount of 60 bucks. (You don't have to accept the check; the deal isn't done until you cash it.)
That price alone is practically criminal, but that's where the truly slimy part of the operation begins. First, if you call Cash4Gold and ask for your stuff back, you abruptly get a better offer: In the case of the above experiment, the offer was a whopping $178. That's a better deal, but still not market rate, though the caller was told that Cash4Gold could "manipulate the numbers on their end" to make it appear that more product was sent than was in reality. Bizarre, but it's really the only way Cash4Gold can cover its behind to convince you the original offer wasn't a wholesale ripoff.
As bad as that is, it's far worse if you opted for the company's "Fast Cash" option. Here, that original offer ($60) is wired into your bank account within 24 hours of them receiving the booty. It sure is fast, but it's not much cash -- and you don't have the option of declining the offer at all. You're stuck with a pittance for your valuable gold items. (It's also worth noting that Cash4Gold has offered Cockeyed cash 4 removing its expose from the web...)
As a side note, another website offers an in-depth expose on how the system works, this time analyzed from the inside by a former employee. Here it's outlined how the company offers bonuses to phone operators who can convince you to accept a lower offer and how the company attempts to delay payments as long as possible. It's also worth a look if you're considering sending stuff to Cash4Gold anyway and haggling for a better deal.
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I wish they calculated how much that gold was worth on the spot market...
[QUOTE=Aussie;242849]
Depending on who you are dealing with, during this time you can be financially exposed as your funds are "out there" in someone else's account until delivery. If it's with a solid, reputable dealer the chances of a problem are minimized but still there is an element of risk.
Its interesting to note that I was told by New Zealand mint that once the gold was bought and waiting for delivery[4-6wks?] that you could still sell your gold if it rose which I suppose takes a little of the uncertainty out of the situation[its still sell at 1% below spot though]
i guess threre is still a big advantage to having it physically right away but ofcourse there is no guarantie you are getting the real thing and i would be very nervious putting $2000 into someones bank acc and then waiting for the supposeably gold coin.
I picked this info up elsewhere - haven't had time to research the actual article yet.
Dr Petrov stated that that gold increased in value against a basket of commodities he called CRB, only twice in the 20th century 1906 & 1933. Interestingly at both times Gold had a fixed price and there was deflation. What is really interesting is that gold stayed exactly the same in comparative value to the CRB ( according to Dr Petrov) in the 1970's and early 80s.
Trade Me auction today - Gold premium about 15%
Half Sovereign 1865 Sold at: $230.00
Actual Gold Content (Troy Ounces)0.1177
Est value $200 NZD of gold content.
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/List...x?id=200550643
Compare a Krug closing soon currently at $1930 may go higher.
Gold value currently about $1720
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/List...x?id=200952038
Don't know for sure, but I'd be surprised if NZ Mint didn't pay at least spot for incoming gold Kiwis. Since there are precious few sellers and a wait of 4-6 weeks, I'm sure they would jump at the chance to acquire immediate inventory and would likely be calling a buyer . . . for another quick 6%!
But people sure seem to be happy enough to acquire them on TM and that's a better price than you'd ever get from the NZ Mint - they will have to meet the market to some degree IMO.
they still claim they buy at spot-1% but like you say,they may be open to neg.
They also said they were uping the sell % from 7 to 8 but would still sell me at 7% since I bought once before at that rate.
It would be interesting to call and ask and see whether they were bulsh----g me
Its 9% because the spot we see is in N Z $ at the cross rate but unfortunately when we [and nz mint]buy, the bank takes thier exchange rate spread,making it 9%
I envy my mates in Montreal who can just drive over to Kitco and buy coins wih no fuss in thier own currency or better still,New York.
but look at all the other benefits here in GODZONE prob much better place to be if the probverbial sh-t hits the fan
Received these by e-mail from http://www.rathi.com/commodities.asp
Money flow continues in gold as total gold stocks with SPDR
gold funds crossed 850 tonnes this week. Looking at this weeks
economic indicators not much seem to be in store expect the
retail sales. Funds Also increased their net long in gold by 12%
Retail sales is expected to deteriorate further taking in view the
pathetic situation of American economy. Another factor that will
be the key is passing of $937 rescue package by American senate.
This bill assumes significance as it will test Barrack
Obama’s influence in the senate. Another key factor will be the
employment scenario in U.S. with unemployment rate touching a
high of 7.5% one can expect govt to come out with some stern
measures which can bring in certain amount of optimism in the
markets. However even taking all this into considerations we
expect dollar to strengthen against major currencies of the
world. The reason is that situation is expected to deteriorate
further in European countries which will lead to problems for
euro and other currencies. We see Euro Zone following other
developed nations and bringing their interest rates to 1% in
coming months. All these factors will lead to rise in gold prices
and we expect $950-$980 as a potential short term target..
however $930 remains a key resistance and above that a further
bullishness will be seen. All these factors will lead to rise in gold
prices and we expect $950-$980 as a
potential short term target.
1oz 1990 Australian Nugget just sold on Trademe for $1890
so about 17% over spot/NZD.
Not sure how much %wise you would lose if you have to trade
them in with a dealer (if unable to sell them on-line )
So maybe the 1oz Kiwi is better value - mint condition and $50 less.
I have bought many times from the US and had gold and silver shipped in via Fed Ex. Paid 5% over spot + shipping and insurance on Maples, Buffaloes, GAE's and Philly's with Larry LaBorde at The Silver Trading Company in Shreveport Louisiana.
http://www.silvertrading.net
A perfect southern gentleman and AAARated in my opinion.
Also bought Kangas from Jaggards in Sydney and just picked 'em while over there sometime.
Do we know what Trademe charges in commission for this trade?Quote:
1oz 1990 Australian Nugget just sold on Trademe for $1890
so about 17% over spot/NZD.
I know for some things it's around 6% decreasing the higher $ amount
But for gold? I wonder what their clip is?
Anyone here know whats the best way to sell a 18 ct gold Rolex watch?
I bought this watch about 20 years ago for $45k and it has been sitting in the safe. It is in excellent condition and only worn it a few times. I dont use it, so may as well sell it. How do I go about selling something like this in NZ?
Trade me charges are here
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Help/Topic.aspx?help_id=18
Basically this........
Success fees
Up to $1506.9% of sale price (50c minimum) $150 - $1500 $10.35 + 4.5% of sale price over $150 Over $1500$71.10 + 1.9% of sale price over $1500
(max fee = $149)
For peoples info...from the website...not quite for the little guy.
INTERNATIONAL ORDERS
The minimum international order is500 ounces of silver, plus additional charges for shipping and handling.
The minimum gold order for international orders is 15 ounces
- Please add 2.0% commission to all international (export) orders. Our minimum commission is $25 U.S. dollars on any one order.
- Please be advised that the U.S. does not charge an export tax on international shipments; therefore, you are responsible for determining and paying any and all local taxes, V.A.T., or import duty which may be applicable in your country
What is forum members opinion on the best gold coin to have in your inventory?
Basically they are all 1oz, so is there any advantage which gold coinage
you have - and why?
Krugerrand
Maple
Eagle
Kiwi
Buffalo
The times I have bought from him, I spoke with Larry direct and was wiring funds directly from my US account so I got a better deal than that but still, I did order couple of monster boxes of ASE's and a box of CSE's . . . it's just hard to find cheap gold and silver ain't it!
I remember that the silver cost me about US$15.50 an once to my door back when the NZD was in the high .70's so I figured it was a good deal at the time compared to local prices of Silver Kiwis and Aussie Kookaburras which always seem so expensive.
Yea I found the Oz stuff to be the dearest of the lot.
If we visit my wifes family in Montreal any time soon.I may just rock up to Kitco and buy some myself.
Does anyone know how much gold you can bring into the country without incurring duty [or jail time]
It seems you can get any amount sent.
sounds like you timed it just right Aussie, but I guess anyone who buys now may say the same thing if the melt down occurs[sorry for pun] Meanwhile hopefully the 1-2% we are talking about will become a non issue
The real issue now is whether to change the term dep into gold as they mature...decisions..decisions
Received today from Commoditymarkets2008.....................the pics were not attached for whatever reason
IN THE LONG TERM: WILL GOLD KEEP YOU SAFE ?
The global economic recession now has a literal "golden" lining: One Japanese jeweller's '09 collection of "Lucky Dolls" -- solid, 24-carat gold figurines that, according to tradition, are able to "ward off evil spirits and herald the coming of spring."
Small world. Mainstream financial wisdom makes a very similar claim; roughly: He who invests in GOLD shall avert the pain of economic uncertainty and unrest. In light of the current market maelstrom, this belief has never been stronger, as these recent news items make plain:
- "Bullion Sales Hit Record In Stampede To Safety. Inflows into the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund surged to all-time high in January… amid renewed fears about the health of the global financial system." (Financial Times)
- "…Known for its durability during a slowing economy, gold prices and sales have been steadily rising." (AP)
- "Gold Rush: Investors are buying gold… rather than looking for a quick gain. This is a new round of safe haven buying." (Bloomberg)
Sure, the usual pundits tout gold as the ultimate safe-haven TODAY, when prices stand at a six-month high. Back in October 2008, however, with gold prices 30% in the red and hobbling at a one-and-a-half year low -- they shunned the metal as a certain casualty of the credit crisis.
To wit: "Gold prices plunge on recession fears. Confidence is at rock bottom. No one wants to be long any commodity." -- October 24, 2008, Bloomberg.
Really, these folks see gold as a surefire safe-haven when prices are rising; and NOT as one when prices fall. That's a recipe for disaster.
As for whether the precious metal TRULY does provide shelter from the economic storm, the March 14, 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist has the answer. In that publication, Elliott Wave International president Bob Prechter presented an indisputable case AGAINST the "safe-haven" status of Gold.
The first piece of evidence: The following table showing gold's performance during the 11 officially recognized recessions beginning in 1945.
Chart
Bob also plotted the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the same period and made this startling discovery: The average total return for the Dow during recessions since 1945 is 6.89%. Taking into account modern transaction costs, the Dow actually beats gold with a 6.87% return.
The most powerful myth-debunking punch of all, though, came via the second chart of gold's performance -- this time during periods of financial growth.
Chart
In Bob's own words: "All huge gains in gold have come while the economy was expanding… The idea that gold reliably rises during recessions and depressions is wrong. In fact, like most such passionately accepted lore, it's backwards."
The IMF does well in difficult times for the global economy as its income to meet its internal budgets arises from loans to nations in economic difficulties. In such times IMF loans increase, as does its income, which could mean there is not such a pressing need for the Fund to sell its gold says London's VM Group.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Feb 2009
LONDON -
Some two years ago the gold price was hit, albeit temporarily, by the announcement that the International Monetary Fund would sell 403 tonnes of gold as the basis of an endowment, the interest on which would be used to help defray the shortfall in the IMF budget. Indeed, at the time the Fund was suffering as its loan book was shrinking, eventually falling to SDR5.8bn at the end of the first quarter of 2008. The IMF does well when the world economy does badly, but conversely does badly when the world economy does well and at that time the global economy seemed to be riding high.
Full article
Traveling with gold is NOT illegal, I don't know why people seem to think it is. I have travelled back from Australia many times sometimes with as much as 70 oz, which only one time was my bag inspected by outgoing security in Sydney (in a private room) and there were no hassles, the security guys were extremely professional.
Even if you are carrying more than the face value of the coins (Kangas are A$100) then it's no big deal to fill out a declaration. There are no taxes, duties or dirty looks . . .
yes , both elliot wave and gann global have been bearish on the metals and commodities in general.
Prechter of EWI seem to have a very dismal view pretty much all the time - it does wear you down a bit. THey're offering some free book on deflation but I was too exhausted to d/l and read coz my anti-depressants hadnt arrived
so you're saying that due to the $10k currency import threshold you only have to declare bringing in over 100 oz's (where they are face value $100) even tho 99 oz is worth $175k ?
Awesome
Pretty much peat. The coins were looked at and the question was asked "how many are there?" 72 I replied - which had a face value of A$7,200 or less than NZ$10k. . There were two customs/security officers and my wife and I in a small room with rolls of gold coins all over table . . . if they had a problem they would have said so. One of the guys actually smiled and said he was a silver collector and wished us luck. Like I said, very discreet, courteous and professional. I wold not expect the same of the TSA staff in the USA . . .
Going through Auckland was a breeze also.
anyone know if krugs have a face value?
Nervous Chinese To Diversify Into Gold
With Massive $1.95 Trillion Foreign Reserves
Mark O'Byrne
11 February 2009
Of even more significance are the drumbeat of Chinese concerns, the U.S.' largest creditor regarding their massive U.S. Treasury and other debt holdings. Bloomberg reports that influential Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China, said that China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won't be eroded by "reckless policies". Premier Wen Jiabao said last month his government's strategy for investing would focus on safeguarding the value of China's massive $1.95 trillion foreign reserves.
Yongding said that "China should diversify its reserves away from U.S. Treasuries if the value of China's foreign-exchange reserves is in danger of being inflated away by the U.S. government's pump-priming," he said. He has previously said that China should diversify into the euro, yen, oil and gold. Yongdinghas has warned of possible panic selling of dollar assets leading to a global financial collapse and has said that the potential increases in the value of gold meant China should be hedging its bets by diversifying into gold.
Dow Jones reported in November that China's central bank is considering raising its gold reserve by 4,000 metric tons from 600 tons to diversify risks brought by the country's huge foreign exchange reserves, according to a Chinese newspaper.
China has almost certainly been nibbling in the gold market as they attempt to gradually diversify out of dollars and into gold. Especially in light of the fact that they have less than 1% of their currency reserves in gold unlike most western nations whose gold reserves are very significant percentages of their overall reserves. Despite having the largest foreign currency reserves in the world, they are only 9th in terms of central bank gold reserves and this will change in the coming years as they rebalance and diversify their foreign exchange reserves.
Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director
Gold and Silver Investments Limited
Mark O'Byrne is Executive Director of Gold and Silver Investments Limited (www.goldassets.co.uk). He is regularly quoted and writes in the international financial media and was awarded Ireland's prestigious Money Mate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.
No, they have a date. Gold coins are a bit of a mixed bag. Here's a list of the coins that I have and their info . . .
24k Gold Kiwi's - No FV - No date
24k Austrian Philharmonic - 2,000 Schillings + Dated
22k SA Krugerrand - Date Only
24k Chinese Panda - 100 Yuan - Dated
24k USA Buffalo - US$50 - Dated
22k USA Gold Eagle - US$50 - Dated
24k Australian Kangaroo - A$100 - Dated
24k Canadian Gold Maple - C$50 - Dated
Hope this helps.
Cheers
Capitalism needs a sound-money foundation.
By Judy Shelton
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, February 12, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123440593696275773.html
Let's go back to the gold standard.
If the very idea seems at odds with what is currently happening in our country -- with Congress preparing to pass a massive economic stimulus bill that will push the fiscal deficit to triple the size of last year's record budget gap -- it's because a gold standard stands in the way of runaway government spending.
Under a gold standard, if people think the paper money printed by government is losing value, they have the right to switch to gold. Fiat money -- i.e., currency with no intrinsic worth that government has decreed legal tender -- loses its value when government creates more than can be absorbed by the productive real economy. Too much fiat money results in inflation -- which pools in certain sectors at first, such as housing or financial assets, but ultimately raises prices in general.
Inflation is the enemy of capitalism, chiseling away at the foundation of free markets and the laws of supply and demand. It distorts price signals, making retailers look like profiteers and deceiving workers into thinking their wages have gone up. It pushes families into higher income tax brackets without increasing their real consumption opportunities.
In short, inflation undermines capitalism by destroying the rationale for dedicating a portion of today's earnings to savings. Accumulated savings provide the capital that finances projects that generate higher future returns; it's how an economy grows, how a society reaches higher levels of prosperity. But inflation makes suckers out of savers.
If capitalism is to be preserved, it can't be through the con game of diluting the value of money. People see through such tactics; they recognize the signs of impending inflation. When we see Congress getting ready to pay for 40% of 2009 federal budget expenditures with money created from thin air, there's no getting around it. Our money will lose its capacity to serve as an honest measure, a meaningful unit of account. Our paper currency cannot provide a reliable store of value.
So we must first establish a sound foundation for capitalism by permitting people to use a form of money they trust. Gold and silver have traditionally served as currencies -- and for good reason. A study by two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Arthur Rolnick and Warren Weber, concluded that gold and silver standards consistently outperform fiat standards. Analyzing data over many decades for a large sample of countries, they found that "every country in our sample experienced a higher rate of inflation in the period during which it was operating under a fiat standard than in the period during which it was operating under a commodity standard."
Given that the driving force of free-market capitalism is competition, it stands to reason that the best way to improve money is through currency competition. Individuals should be able to choose whether they wish to carry out their personal economic transactions using the paper currency offered by the government, or to conduct their affairs using voluntary private contracts linked to payment in gold or silver.
Legal tender laws currently favor government-issued money, putting private contracts in gold or silver at a distinct disadvantage. Contracts denominated in Federal Reserve notes are enforced by the courts, whereas contracts denominated in gold are not. Gold purchases are subject to taxes, both sales and capital gains. And while the Constitution specifies that only commodity standards are lawful -- "No state shall coin money, emit bills of credit, or make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts" (Article I, Section 10) -- it is fiat money that enjoys legal tender status and its protections.
Now is the time to challenge the exclusive monopoly of Federal Reserve notes as currency. Buyers and sellers, by mutual consent, should have access to an alternate means for settling accounts; they should be able to do business using a monetary unit of account defined in terms of gold. The existence of parallel currencies operating side-by-side on an equal legal footing would make it clear whether people had more confidence in fiat money or money redeemable in gold. If the gold-based system is preferred, it means that people fully understand that the purpose of money is to facilitate commerce, not to camouflage fiscal mismanagement.
Private gold currencies have served as the medium of exchange throughout history -- long before kings and governments took over the franchise. The initial justification for government involvement in money was to certify the weight and fineness of private gold coins. That rulers found it all too tempting to debase the money and defraud its users testifies more to the corruptive aspects of sovereign authority than to the viability of gold-based money.
Which is why government officials should not now have the last word in determining the monetary measure, especially when they have abused the privilege.
The same values that will help America regain its economic footing and get back on the path to productive growth -- honesty, reliability, accountability -- should be reflected in our money. Economists who promote the government-knows-best approach of Keynesian economics fail to comprehend the damaging consequences of spurring economic activity through a money illusion. Fiscal "stimulus" at the expense of monetary stability may accommodate the principles of the childless British economist who famously quipped, "In the long run, we're all dead." But it shortchanges future generations by saddling them with undeserved debt obligations.
There is also the argument that gold-linked money deprives the government of needed "flexibility" and could lead to falling prices. But contrary to fears of harmful deflation, the big problem is not that nominal prices might go down as production declines but rather that dollar prices artificially pumped up by government deficit spending merely paper over the real economic situation. When the output of goods grows faster than the stock of money, benign deflation can occur -- it happened from 1880 to 1900 while the U.S. was on a gold standard. But the total price-level decline was 10% stretched over 20 years. Meanwhile, the gross domestic product more than doubled.
At a moment when the world is questioning the virtues of democratic capitalism, our nation should provide global leadership by focusing on the need for monetary integrity. One of the most serious threats to global economic recovery -- aside from inadequate savings -- is protectionism. An important benefit of developing a parallel currency linked to gold is that other countries could likewise permit their own citizens to utilize it. To the extent they did so, a common currency area would be created not subject to the insidious protectionism of sliding exchange rates.
The fiasco of the G-20 meeting in Washington last November -- it was supposed to usher in "the next Bretton Woods" -- suggests that any move toward a new international monetary system based on gold will more likely take place through the grass-roots efforts of Americans. It may already be happening at the state level. Last month Indiana state Sen. Greg Walker introduced a bill -- "The Indiana Honest Money Act" -- which would allow citizens the option of paying in or receiving back gold, silver or the equivalent electronic receipt as an alternative to Federal Reserve notes for all transactions conducted with the state of Indiana.
It may turn out to be a bellwether. Certainly, it's a sign of a growing feeling in the heartland that we need to go back to sound money. We need money that works for the legitimate producers and consumers of the world -- the savers and borrowers, the entrepreneurs. Not money that works for the chiselers.
----
Ms. Shelton, an economist, is author of "Money Meltdown: Restoring Order to the Global Currency System" (Free Press, 1994).
Fear and Greed
Richard Russell (snippet)
Dow Theory Letters
Feb 12, 2009
February 11, 2009 Gold -- There's only one item that is bought through both fear and greed. That item is gold. Are you worried about the viability of the dollar? Then buy gold -- (fear). Are you afraid that the gold market is getting away from you? Then don't wait -- buy gold (greed).
Those subscribers who have heeded my advice -- "buy gold." They are doing OK today. Of course, for years I advocated buying gold coins and hiding them away and never looking at them or thinking of selling those little beauties. Now if you want gold, you have to buy "paper gold" in the form of GLD. Which is probably OK. Below we see an up-dated chart of GLD. And we see the breakout today at 92.29. This completes a huge base, which started at the 69 box and since has been building and building.
Note the numerous down-columns, these are the "wipe-outs" which periodically scare people OUT of their gold. Today, with the upside breakout at the 93 box on the P&F chart, we're forced to buy gold in the 944 (April futures) area. For those who missed out on gold when it was in the 700s and 800s, this is a scary proposition. So question -- is it too late to buy GLD or high-premium coins if you can find them?
As I see it, the frenzy, the speculative phase of gold, the rush of a frightened public -- lies ahead. Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and OUT. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience -- to get in you have to "close your eyes, and just do it." Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money. Which is why I've always loved the gold coins. You buy 'em, you're not tempted to trade 'em, they look great and they feel great. And they're not made of paper, nor can they be created with a computer. Ultimately, "There's no fever like gold fever." And I'm beginning, just beginning, to feel the fever now. When I look at the chart, I can sense the fever rising.
Fiat paper fans and the Fed denigrate gold. They fear gold and despise it. They prefer the Federal Reserve Notes that they can manufacture at will. But as gold rises, they must face the fact that the Notes they manufacture are being devalued. You see, for thousands of years gold has been the standard against which all assets and currencies are measured. When the big bear arrives and everything faces the fire, "gold will be the last man standing, not dollars, not political talk or Presidential promises -- the only survivor will be the eternal and ultimate safe asset -- gold.
Notice the difference in gold trading during the day? Very little profit-taking. Buyers are buying gold to hold rather than to grab intra-day profits.
Richard Russell
website: Dow Theory Letters
email: Dow Theory Letters
Russell Archives
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Richard Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.
thanx for the input on face value Aussie Looks like G maples would be the best bet for carrying from Canada
I met up yesterday with a gold trader who believes that the bull run in gold is nearly over.
Reason being, the hedge funds are sitting on massive unrealised losses and going to be forced to sell gold and stock to fund their withdrawals.
That's surprising. It seems to me that to a large extent this has already happened. There was a massive amount of forced de-leveraging from hedge funds last October and gold sold down to it's $680 low on the back of a stronger USD.
From both a fundamental and technical point of view gold is currently exhibiting enormous strength. In mid December when the USDX dropped below 80, gold was in the $780 area. Since then, the trading pattern has changed significantly rallying about $160 despite a strong uptrend in the USD - this is not an insignificant development . . .
Attachment 1255
Could it go down from here - possibly. But I would say that there are now many strong support lines below the current level and that any selling will be met with aggressive buying.
The US Senate this morning past a US$787B spending package. In addition to the US$700B TARP. States and municipalities are in need of a US$1Trillion bailout in order to keep their lights on . . . where is the money going to come from to fund this?
The fundamentals tell me that we are rapidly approaching the time when gold is the only place left to go. US Treasury market is a bubble waiting to pop. The dollar is on precipice of a history making decline. There is no where near enough savings in the entire world to fund the US Treasury over the next 12 months let alone the rest of Obama's term in office and the USD will begin to reflect this once "quantitative easing" begins in earnest.
So where does one go to seek safety if it cannot be found in cash or government bonds? In my opinion the bull market hasn't even begun yet . . .
Gold is now rising in USD and is making record highs in all currencies. In my opinion it will continue to do so regardless of what the world's hedge funds do. I would view any dip in the gold price from here out as a buying opportunity.
Global systemic crisis – New tipping-point in March 2009:
'When the world becomes aware that this crisis is worse than the 1930s crisis'
LEAP/E2020 anticipates than the unfolding global systemic crisis will experience in March 2009 a new tipping point of similar magnitude to the September 2008 one. According to our team, at that period of the year, the general public will become aware of three major destabilizing processes at work in the global economy, i.e.:
• the length of the crisis
• the explosion of unemployment worldwide
• the risk of sudden collapse of all capital-based pension systems
A whole range of psychological factors will contribute to this tipping point: general awareness in Europe, America and Asia that the crisis has escaped from the control of every public authority, whether national or international; that it is severely affecting all regions of the world, even if some are more affected than others (see GEAB N°28); that it is directly hitting hundreds of millions of people in the “developed” world; and that it is only worsening as its consequences reveal throughout the real economy. National governments and international institutions only have three months left to prepare themselves to the next blow, one that could go along severe risks of social chaos. The countries which are not properly equipped to cope with a surge in unemployment and major risks on pensions will be seriously destabilized by this new public awareness.
In this 30th issue of the GEAB, the LEAP/E2020 team describes these three destabilizing processes (two of them are described in this public announcement) and gives recommendations to cope with the surge in risks. In addition, this issue also provides the opportunity to make an objective assessment of the reliability of LEAP/E2020's anticipations and specifies a number of methodological aspects of the analytical process used. In 2008, LEAP/E2020's success rate reaches 80%, and even 86% when it comes to strictly socio-econimic anticipations. In a year of major upheavals, our teal ise altogether quite proud of this result.
The crisis will last at least until the end of 2010
Attachment 1256
Evolution of the US money base and indications of related major US crisis periods (1910 – 2008)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis / Mish’s Global Economic Analysis
As we already explained in GEAB N°28, the crisis will affect in different ways the different regions of the world. However, and LEAP/E2020 wishes to be very clear on that aspect, contrary to the dominant stance today (coming from those experts who denied the fact that a crisis was coming up three years ago, who denied that it was global two years ago, and who denied the fact that it was systemic six months ago), we anticipate that the minimum duration of the decanting phase of the crisis is 3 years (1). It shall be finished neither in spring 2009, nor in summer 2009, nor at the beginning of 2010. It is only towards the end of 2010 that the situation will start stabilizing again and improving a little in some regions of the world, i.e. Asia and the Eurozone, as well as in countries producing energy, mineral and food commodities (2). Elsewhere, it will continue; in particular in the US and UK, and in all the countries depending on their economy, were the duration could approximate a decade. In fact these countries should not expect any real return to growth before 2018.
Moreover no one should imagine that the improvement at the end of 2010 will correspond to a return of high growth. The recovery will take long. For instance, stock markets will take a decade to return to levels comparable to 2007, if they ever return to that. Remember that it took twenty years before Wall Street resumed its 1920 levels. Well, according to LEAP/E2020, the present crisis is deeper and longer than in the 1930s. The general public will gradually become aware of the long-term aspect of this crisis in the coming three months and this situation will immediately trigger two tendencies carrying with them socio-economic instability: fear of the future and enhanced criticism towards leaders.
The risk of sudden collapse of all capital-based pension systems.
Finally, among the various consequences of the crisis for dozens of millions of people in the US, Canada, UK, Japan, Netherlands and Denmark in particular (3), there is the fact that, from the end of the year 2008 onward, news about major losses on the part of the organizations in charge of managing the financial assets supposed to finance pensions will multiply. The OECD anticipates that pension funds will lose 4,000 billion USD in 2008 only (4). In the Netherlands (5) as well as in the United Kingdom (6), monitoring organizations recently blew the whistle asking for an emergency contribution reappraisal and a State intervention. In the United States, growing numbers of announcements call for contribution increases and benefit reductions (7), knowing that it is only in a few weeks time that most of these funds will start calculating their total losses (8). Most of them are still deluding themselves about their capacity to build up again their capital after the markets turn around. In March 2009, when pension fund managers, pensioners and governments will become simultaneously aware of the fact that the crisis is there to last, that it coincides with the « baby-boomer » generation’s age of retirement and that the markets will not resume their 2007 levels until many long years (9), chaos will flood this sector and governments will reach the moment when they will be compelled to nationalize all these funds. And Argentina, who took this decision a few months ago already, will appear a pioneer.
All the trends described above are already at work. Their combination and the public becoming aware of the consequences they could entail, will result in the great collective psychological trauma of Spring 2009, when everyone will realize that we are all trapped into a crisis worse than in the 1930s and that there is no possible way out in the short-term. The impact on the world’s collective mentalities of people and policy-makers will be decisive and modify significantly the course of the crisis in its next stage. Based on greater disillusion and fewer beliefs, social and political instability will settle down worldwide.
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-30-is-...his_a2567.html
__________________________________________________ _
Don't know if many here have heard of Martin Armstrong. He is a fascinating man, an American economist who is currently serving his 7th year in prison WITHOUT EVER BEING TRIED for a fraud he claims he is innocent of. This occurred after refusing to work for the CIA and allow his proprietary models to become the property of the US Government.
http://www.topix.com/forum/business/TS8IHELKS6G8FDV65
His genius is his study, theories and writing based on the work of noted Russian economist Nickolai Dmyutriyevich Kondratieff (1892-1938). Once Stalin became aware of the importance of Kondratieff's work with the mathematics of economic cycles and the accurate predictive abilities his work produced - he was killed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
Armstrong released an essay dated October 10th, 2008 which is a fascinating read. At 72 pages it's definitely a download and print job. I read it all in less than a couple of hours.
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTim...nArmstrong.pdf
In this document he outlines his theory of cycles and how they currently point to a market top on March 19, 2009 after which the world will enter a period of steep decline.
Aussie:
...because worldwide US$-denominated debt in form of various debt instruments (CDS = one outstanding example) is incredibly MASSIVE, the accelerating default on such debt instruments will destroy massive amounts of US$ (remember: debt is money = like pay for a car with your credit card), the remaining stock of US$ will 'swell' in value (like: today the price of the car is $100, tomorrow, the price of the car will be $75);
...during the current ongoing period of 'quantitative easing' (fighting deflation), the race between the US$-destruction (deflation) and the Central Banks printing money is clearly miles out in favor of deflation;
...consequently, for the foreseeable future, most likely until at least 2010 or until such time until the last bit of debt is squeezed out of the hot bubble (>when Central Banks/Governments start to print money to pay off their own debt = inflation), the 'swelling' of the US$ will continue with possible detrimental effects for precious metals short to medium term
...so, take a deep breath and save some cash to buy Precious when Precious will be preciously around the US$600-mark for gold or anywhere nearby (am not worried too much about exact numbers here), because:
...The Rise of The GOLD PHOENIX cannot be prevented
Kind Regards
Sheeet Aussie that s heavy reading maaate
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTim...nArmstrong.pdf
but well worth the time spent reading it thou parts degenerate into a crusade(rightly or otherwise)
Coining it -
Eagle Matters
"Among collectors and investors at large, rising gold prices and publicity generated by record-breaking coin sales have piqued interest as well. In a 2002 auction, a 1933 double-eagle gold coin sold for $7.6 million -- a price widely acknowledged by people familiar with the market as the highest ever paid for a coin in a public auction. The 1933 double-eagle coins were never issued, and nearly all of them were melted down during the Great Depression, after President Roosevelt discontinued the gold standard".
Bulliontoday
I have developed a little interest in nuministics after I began acquiring physical silver and gold about 6-7 years ago.
I enjoy having a look at some of the older, less common coins I have.....but I've always purchased ONLY on underlying melt value......I guess I just don't understand, or put much value in rare nuministics in toughening times.
I've acquired physical over the years for insurance and as a teaching aid for my kids...I reckon nuministic value will be the LEAST of my concerns IF I sold...........
Some interesting Gold statistics on this site....bakercoins.net
"A advertisement on the radio stated that gold has gone up 112% in the last twenty five years. They state that gold is a good hedge against inflation. Since everyone is talking about gold and crude oil prices, let’s compare gold and crude oil prices over the last 25 years.
1980 to 1985: Lets forget that on January 21, 1980, gold closed at $850.00 per ounce. The average for 1980 was still only $675.31 and the low was $559.50. The five year average for 1980 to 1985 was $495.46. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the average price is $879.27. The average low for the same time was $477.35. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the average low was $847.13.
Crude oil on the open market for the same time period was trading at an average price of $37.98. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the price is $78.63.
In the radio commercial, the firm states that the value of one ounce of gold should be at least 15 times the value of a barrel of crude oil. The average price of crude for 1980 was $37.42 times 15 or a value for gold of $561.30. Gold average for 1980 was 675.31. 16.88% off, not bad, close enough to say, ok.
1986 to 1990: The average gold price for these years was $333.06. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the average price of gold was $495.37.
Crude oil on the open market for the same time period was trading at $17.72. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the price was $29.97 X 15 is $449.55.
1991 to 1995: The average price of gold between 1991 and 1995 was $369.15. Again, adjusted for 2005 dollars, gold had an average price of $448.08.
Crude oil on the open market for the same time was trading at $17.72. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the price was $29.97 times 15 or $449.55. So here we can see that there was little change in the price of crude from 1986 to 1995. While gold value went down, but it is right at 15 times the value of a barrel of crude oil.
Lets look at gold for the 15 years from 1980 to 1996. In 2005 adjusted dollars, gold went from $879.27 to $448.08. This is a decrease in 2005 value of $431.10 or a decrease of 49.03%.
During this same time period, crude oil went from $78.63 to $29.97. This is a decrease in value of $48.66 or 61.88%.
1996 to 2000: The average price of gold between 1996 and 2000 was $300.83. Again, adjusted for 2005 dollars, gold had an average price of $334.08.
Crude oil on the open market for the same time was trading at $18.99. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the price was $22.74 times 15 or $341.10.
2000 to 2005: The average price of gold between 2000 and 2005 was $393.48. Adjusted for 2005 dollars, the price was $413.40. While crude oil on the open market was $32.24 with a 2005 adjusted dollar of $33.94.
Now lets look at the facts. Between 1980 and 1985, the value of gold was $495.46 while the average value at the end 2005 was $393.48. It seams to me that is a decrease of $101.98 or a 20.58% decrease in value.
Crude oil went from a 1980 to 1985 average price of $37.98 while the average value at the end of 2005 was $32.24 or a decrease of 15.11%.
The 2005 prices do not take into consideration the value in 2005 dollars, but comparing just the gold value in 2005 dollars is a horse of a different color. The value in 2005 dollars in the average price of gold between 1980 and 1985 was $879.27. The 2005 dollar value would give you a decrease of $485.79 or a decrease of 55.25%.
Now, lets drop 1980 from the mix and compare January 5, 1981 to ending value on December 30, 2005. January 5, 1981, gold closed at $597.50 and closed on December 30, 2005 at $513.00. Well, lets try starting with January 4, 1982. Gold closed at $395.00 and closed on December 30, 2005 with a value of $513.00. Now here we have an increase in value of $118 or a 23% increase.
Let’s try the closing price of gold on January 5, 1983. Gold closed at $449.50 and closed on December 29, 2005 with a value of $513.00. This gives us an increase in value of $63.50 or a 12.38 % increase".
Read the article and see the % tables
On Daily MA 50 days has just crossed MA 200...very bullish......so consolidation yes....but it will go higher IMO....
<img src=http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/158/goldsc8.png>
http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/158/goldsc8.png
just showing that image for you trader10
Thanks peat...... why it did not show when I posted ? Can you share how you did it ?
cheers
Gold and silver are strong today...... Hillary Clinton had a speach in Japan this arvo..... looks like the first and second economies in the world will make another move soon.....
The bad Japanese GDP presented yesterday is reflect of the last 3 months of 2008....so we are already two months in the year and improvements can be already happening......
The only problema will be the printing and flooding of all different currencies IMHO....inflation could be knocking on the door pretty soon.....
cheers
Could someone please post a chart showing the next resistance level?
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24....2974853515625
TIA