TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

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Originally Posted by blackcap

We continue to actively sell the parcel, as stated previously, the decision making of Dorchester continues to disappoint," Viking chairman Brent King said. "The statements from Dorchester give some hope of them returning to profitability and regaining market confidence.

"When this occurs the price should return to at least net asset value."


Thats the statement I cant make head or tail of! Then why are you selling Viking?

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Because he has lost it!! He is no longer rational or he would not be hell bent on dropping the DPC shareprice - unless he has a warchest for a takeover at 50c

All things are not what they seem. Clearly something doesnt add up unless there is another agenda. Watch this space.

I agree that BK has lost it and is becoming desperate. He is also stooping to lower levels than his made did from Bridgecorp

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Originally Posted by Nita

All things are not what they seem. Clearly something doesnt add up unless there is another agenda. Watch this space.

I agree that BK has lost it and is becoming desperate. He is also stooping to lower levels than his made did from Bridgecorp

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I havent studied DPC but I was speaking to someone in the know who told me things are settling down but its hard when your enquiries have been knocked 60%.

Says it all I think

I also know someone very high up in DPC except they are not on the board. So what is really happening is still speculation on my part.

One thing is for sure that if BK smells a real opportunity then he has the people and resources to make something out of it.

Please explain more Nita. I dont see how VIK can benefit from deliberately talking down and selling down DPC shares. The T/O opportunities have been blocked by STL and HG. I am bit confused here.

maybe not viking as such but what about bk himself?

well first question to me is, what is bk trying to do? I know there are a couple of significant holders in dpc but what is happening doesnt add up. It is plain dumb if he is only bagging to co at his personal expense and at Vik expense. Is he backed into a corner with his holdings? but he could also be doing a sly with one or both of the substantial holders as well. suck out all the nervous nellies and then get the big boys to take over. even if he is not directly related to it.

I am not sure.. i am still trying to piece together what is around the corner. Its also worth mentioning that many of his ex colloegues have brought into this company when it was trading at around $2.60 These are his so called mates that he is effectively shtting on. Another reason why i dont trust him one little bit

As a shareholder myself, I hope you are right that there is a corporate play angle in it. But it is hard for me to see how BK comes into it when there are cornerstone holders who will not accept a price below valuation and/or the price of their entry level. My gut feeling is that it is a Mexican standoff and BK got too personal on it and lost the plot.

Someone with deep pockets should just buy the balance off VIK and you will see the SP bounce 50%. STL and HG cant buy anymore shares or they will trigger a T/O.

:):):)

DPC
30/11/2007
HALFYR

REL: 0845 HRS Dorchester Pacific Limited

HALFYR: DPC: DPC ANNOUNCES SOLID HALF YEAR RESULTS

DORCHESTER PACIFIC LIMITED ANNOUNCES SOLID HALF YEAR RESULTS

- First half profit $3.09 million
- Board confirms $6 million full year profit guidance
- Interim dividend announced of 4.25 cents per share
- Healthy return from St Laurence investment
- Sale of 34 Shortland Street confirmed

Dorchester Pacific Limited (Dorchester) today posted its interim results for
the six month period to 30 September 2007, reporting a Net Profit After Tax
of $3.09 million.

A solid result from Dorchester Finance, healthy returns from the investment
in St Laurence and an unrealised gain from the sale of 34 Shortland Street
contributed to the interim profit result for Dorchester, which was reported
for the first time under NZ IFRS (New Zealand International Financial
Reporting Standards).

Chairman of Dorchester, Mr Barry Graham, said: "It is a satisfactory result
in a challenging operating environment. We are on track for a full year
profit of $6 million and are pleased to announce an interim dividend of 4.25
cents per share (last year 4.75 cents) fully imputed and payable on 21
December 2007."

Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Walker, commented: "Early in the financial
year we identified a need to refocus on areas where we can deliver value. At
our Annual Meeting in August we announced a rationalisation programme to
divest non-core operations and assets.

"We have entered an unconditional agreement to sell our holding in 34
Shortland Street to Valad Funds Management for $30.7 million. We are
expecting a cash distribution of approximately $15 million to Dorchester
Finance in due course. These proceeds will be utilised in the normal course
of business and to take advantage of a number of opportunities available in
the current market."

Senate Finance's transition from a financier to a brokerage business is now
complete. Dorchester's branch network has been rationalised and a process to
divest Equity Investment Advisers & Sharebrokers Ltd has commenced.

Dorchester Finance's operating contribution of $2.00 million was a solid
result given Senate's $1.66 million operating loss. The ongoing effect of
poor loans in the Senate ledger was partly offset by a 38% increase in
operating contribution from the branch network and property and equipment
lending operations.

The slowdown in second hand vehicle financing resulted in a downturn in the
sale of consumer insurance products. This impacted DorchesterLife's
operating contribution of $483,000, which was down on the prior year. Mr
Walker commented: "Savings and reverse mortgage products are tracking to
expectations but are unlikely to replace lost consumer insurance revenue in
the short term.

"St Laurence had a good half year result, contributing $2.38 million in
equity earnings. We are very pleased with this investment and are continuing
to explore joint opportunities."

Dorchester has today also announced $20 million of new funding from related
companies of two of its largest shareholders. This is the first in a series
of initiatives to recapitalise the company, including a planned rights issue
in 2008.

Castle Finance Limited, a related company of substantial shareholder Hugh
Green Investments Limited, and Auguste Holdings Limited, a related company of
substantial shareholder Auguste Finance Limited, have each agreed to advance
$10 million to Dorchester Pacific.

Mr Walker said: "The facility will enhance the company's ability to take
advantage of lending and portfolio expansion opportunities and it will also
bolster cash reserves. We welcome this support from our cornerstone
shareholders and are pleased with their demonstration of confidence in the
business."

6 Months to 30 Sept (000s) 2007 2006
Revenue $39,499 $41,385
Net Profit After Tax $3,090 $3,007
Total Assets $424,877 $458,732
Total Equity $64,362 $54,495
Dividend (cps) 4.25 4.75

The changes noted in the 31 March 2007 annual report regarding the transition
to NZ IFRS have resulted in a decrease in shareholders' equity of $5.43
million and a reclassification of minority interests of $1.38 million. A
reconciliation of the major movements for the 31 March NZ GAAP to NZ IFRS
balance sheet is attached to Dorchester's financial statements. A
comprehensive reconciliation will be included in the Half Year Report to 30
September 2007.

ENDS

It wil be interesting to see BK's responce to the above.

Is their any accountant out their who can shed some light with reagards to bad debts or writeoffs. The reason I am asking is that DPC continue to show stready and consistant result results over the last few years. With the collapse of all the finance companies of late, how difficult or easy is it to consider a likely bad debt or such as still a account receivable? Heres the scenario. I could look at my own business and I will have an x amount of money still owed to my by my clients which say i believe are bad debts. Could I not for accounting purposes still make them an account receivable? Especially if i want to artifically give my company performing better than it really is.

If the above is true then with all these sub prime issues and finance companies falling over it would make it almost impossible to make an informed decision whether a finance company was a good investment or not.

Any thoughts?

I have some thoughts on this one

1/ Barely profitable - The npat of 3m included 2.3?m of "equity accounted earnings" - this means the rest of DPC made 700k

2/ Burning cash - otherwise why sell assets? Maybe they are not getting the retail funding in the door?

3/ Selling assets - sold Direct broking at almost exactly the wrong time - kiwisaver etc had already been signalled by the labour government -

Now they are sellling Equity at a time when retail investors do not want to invest in the main product offfering - finance debentures - so they will not get much - so sounds like they are stopping cash burn

And for the icing on the cake.... drum rolll ..... sell property when their is a credit crunch

Brilliant minds run this company!!!!!!!!

hope it goes under.

dsurf. I have to agree with your post. since i longer hold this stock i havent looked into their finaces with great dept. Your analysis seems very good. There will come a very good opportinty fo rthis stoc sooner or later. The only problem is the average investor will not not get a chance because the horse would have already bolted.

Chances of it going under? I guess there is that chance especially under the current econmoic climate it is facing.

Most probably know how i feel about this comapny but i do need to tread with caution on what i say.

discl. all my posts are speculation only.

Sorry Nita I forgot to add that I am not sure that the 700K that DPC operations made does not include "an unrealised property gain" . Of course if it did & the gain was more than 700K then DPC operations are currently loss making.

Also which other company sends out a letter to investors & puts in on thier website that TALKS OF A OVERHANG THAT IS DEPRESSING THE SHAREPRICE - Nutters - daily volume in DPC is Tiny & VIK own a huge amount because the whole world know that VIK founder is also the founder of DPC & dumped his DPC shares that Rod Petrovich of Bridgecorp and equitycorp fame could not buy because of a minor irritation called the takeovers code

Definately going to be interesting. Watch this space

I am more interested in wherethe stock is going than where it has been / is.

Certainly have left the car loans and gone more for the property side.

Nita & D surf do you have any specific concerns or do you feel property is all bad.

P2R Quote....I am more interested in wherethe stock is going than where it has been / is.

Yes I am in the same opinion.

DPC is a totally different animal now than what is was a couple of years ago. I really don't think any commentators can base their arguments about where this company is going using long term hindsight and past performances as a reference anymore.
In saying this though DPC, now that having sold its income stream property asset is more vunerable to the credit squeeze than before....but this area has been plugged with the new loan facilities for the short/medium term, and later a share option program.

The mist is clearing surrounding this company now...Hugh green is now seen to be involved within the DPC Camp and this takes away another uncertainity as to what was going to happen with that block of 20% DPC.
BK is on the outside which the market has already deduced but has publically announced lately that the company now has "opportunities"...so any number of conclusions can be drawn from this statement.

The downside however is the increasingly complexity of the DPC structure. STL is well known for its complex arrangements within its satelite companies and this influence is very evident here..... The upside is that I deduce this complex activity as a sign that STL will now not back away from the DPC -STL merger agreement that had a back door contingency exit measure by STL if things went sour.

Other positive signs are, the perceived harmony by the increasingly many players within this complex intertwined structure, the ability to pay a dividend (great Yield rate), good management, easy no cost ability to acess imformation such as experienced advice / activity.

Negatives, increase complexity makes it difficult for investor to know what the hell is going on. Less transperancy. Virtually no control by shareholders. Small shareholders not receiving any benefits from the restructure and a perception they are being screwed through asset transfer to STL group complex. The NZ Finance Company sector being in the midsts of a bear market cycle. The dark clouds on the property market horizion. Investor flight to A class banks. Bad press. Continuing crashing of the weak finance companies,with forecast of more to come.

So...weighing up the positives and weaknesses.....I have re-entered by buying a small parcel of DPC shares ....just to keep my focus on this company. My Strategy here has no time frame, so it could be a short term flick. Good Dividend coming (21 Dec) though.

Long Term holder topping up

You are brave Possum. :eek: I have some DPC but too scare to add more.

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Originally Posted by p2r

I am more interested in wherethe stock is going than where it has been / is.

Certainly have left the car loans and gone more for the property side.

Nita & D surf do you have any specific concerns or do you feel property is all bad.

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My concerns are well laid out in previous posts but to summarise:

-0 yes zero operating profits - losses unknown
-dividend funded via cash generation from asset sales
-worst sector possible sentiment wise - blue chip going under?
-business model relies on retail funds - Why do they need bailing out by HG & St L - no cash generation from operating business - very bad sign - rights issue?
-internal management / boardroom fighting
-huge share overhang publicly stated by founder with vendetta
-generates own bad media by ongoing war with BKburger
-naiive young overly academic CEO - comments on past bad strategy of board without thinking of ramifications - ie business model is weaker than previously
-website & "operational update" allude to share overhang - bizarre at best

and to add my latest....
- phoned head office last week to plead with the co'y secretary tristram Van der meijden (hopefully he reads this thread) to stop the war with VIK at 12:20pm - was told that he was out til midday - I said - it is 20 past will he be long - was told he was always late
- So phoned today twice - phone rang 20 times - no answer -


At best an unhappy company - at worst - will be in recievership within a year??

Best result would be break up & asset sales - thats right they are selling all their assets - hope the grunters in the trough get smoked so the shareholders at least get a bacon butty

Hey Dsurf, are you a DPC shareholder?

I must admit, I got this one wrong. Should have seen the writing on the wall when Bridgecorp was in trouble. Thank God I only hold a small amount.

Anyone has a valuation on their assets?

Why do they need bailing out by HG & St L - no cash generation from operating business - very bad sign - rights issue?

I think the money is for buying up some of the finance company assets around at the moment.

They certainly need to get bigger & diversify. Hard to see where they are going. They don't seem to be into Kiwisaver but there must be a long term plan.

Selling their best asset - direct broking was a mistake.

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Hey Dsurf, are you a DPC shareholder?

I must admit, I got this one wrong. Should have seen the writing on the wall when Bridgecorp was in trouble. Thank God I only hold a small amount.

Anyone has a valuation on their assets?

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Yeah, I have..well... sort of.
Having referred to the FYR report March 07 booklet many times lately I have put in a place where I can access it easily for reference..I have now misplaced it!!!........but from memory the NTA then was somewhere around the $1.87 to 1.92 mark..since then with the new accounting rules (from NZ GAAP to NZ IFRS) the NTA was revised downwards by $5.4M (15cents/s) to $1.72 or there abouts.
Lately DB has a DPC NTA/s of $1.67 on their website.

With the latest announcement 29 Nov 07.The report says that the Total Equity $64.362M up from $54.495M last year.

Note the new wording TE not NTA
Last year there were less shares on issue... so..

As of 29 Nov $64.362M TE / 36.299M shares on issue = $1.77/share

I have no idea how close this is to being accurate as I don't know what TE is comprised of .
I need a lot of time (which I haven't got) to sort out the facts from this complex maze of figures (as to date I can't find the latest detailed version). Why do they make it so complicated is beyond me.

If my figures are accurate, it shows that there has been no asset burning so far.

Hope this helps somewhat.

If the NTA is only $1.77, so why did Bridgecorp, STL, VIK and HG pay well over $2.00 for it?

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

If the NTA is only $1.77, so why did Bridgecorp, STL, VIK and HG pay well over $2.00 for it?

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Dr, Who knows what kind of back hander deals went on during those P party's on the million dollar boats and in the million dollar houses in Auckland.

Its best just not to ask the question and stay away from the 'shady' companies. And I managed to say all of that without mentioning that Marc character also.

Party at Ridges house tonight to celebrate Brent Todd avoiding the lock up.

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Originally Posted by Toddy

Party at Ridges house tonight to celebrate Brent Todd avoiding the lock up.

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but Brent will be down at Cowboy doing his bouncing job .......... he's allowed to do that as clean mats cars during the day ..... suppose that Mat has to go down to bring him home or is brent allowed to drive home

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Hey Dsurf, are you a DPC shareholder?

I must admit, I got this one wrong. Should have seen the writing on the wall when Bridgecorp was in trouble. Thank God I only hold a small amount.

Anyone has a valuation on their assets?

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I have been a couple of times in the past " lost the faith " after the 2006 AGM when the new CEO outlined a new strategy of rebalancing the loan portfolio away from motor vehicles - it turned out after questioning from a shareholder that all they had done was not re-invest the money.

then there was the Rod Petrovich vs the board spat - very unprofessional - was obvious that there was no alignment of shareholder & management / board interests. Also obvious it was a "jobs for boys club with little controls"

Then there was the clincher - the backward D new logo

Do not hold currently - will not until the management are replaced!

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

If the NTA is only $1.77, so why did Bridgecorp, STL, VIK and HG pay well over $2.00 for it?

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???
??? hmmmm...OK.. Answer ..probably for the same reason that investors want to buy FBU shares for 1161 cents when the NTA/s is 334cents

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

This time last year VIK paid over $2.00 for DPC and now they are selling DPC at 84 cents... ROFL! What a laugh! So who still owns VIK shares?

disc: DPC shareholder

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I wonder what St Lawrence paid. Funny how they are having a rights issue - must be short of cash. If the rights are not taken up maybe they will join VIK & be a seller also!!!

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

This time last year VIK paid over $2.00 for DPC and now they are selling DPC at 84 cents... ROFL! What a laugh! So who still owns VIK shares?

disc: DPC shareholder

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and maybe B King will come in and buy DPC with his own money at 60cps rather than the calamity of errors with Viking

Hey guys, DPC at these levels you are getting over 10% div! In the half yr announcement the board confirms Full yr profit of $6 m, so div should be around 8-9 cps.

Also interesting to see one of the directors slowly accummulation more shares on the market. :)

disc: Shareholder

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Hey guys, DPC at these levels you are getting over 10% div! In the half yr announcement the board confirms Full yr profit of $6 m, so div should be around 8-9 cps.

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A net profit after tax of $6 million would be earnings of 16.5c per share, so a 9c dividend would be a relatively modest payout ratio of 55%. So it's possible that they could pitch the dividend even higher than that.

Assuming a 9c dividend, they would be yielding 10.8% net, or over 15% gross at their current price of 83c.

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Hey guys, DPC at these levels you are getting over 10% div! In the half yr announcement the board confirms Full yr profit of $6 m, so div should be around 8-9 cps.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deev8

A net profit after tax of $6 million would be earnings of 16.5c per share, so a 9c dividend would be a relatively modest payout ratio of 55%. So it's possible that they could pitch the dividend even higher than that.

Assuming a 9c dividend, they would be yielding 10.8% net, or over 15% gross at their current price of 83c.

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Something similar applies to Dominion Finance. They have said that they expect their profit for this year to be 10% - 15% ahead of last year. Taking the more conservative figure I make that earnings of around 28.5c per share. The consensus forecast for their dividend is around 13.8c - again a modest payout ratio slightly below 50%.

A 13.8c dividend would put them on a net yield of 10.9% (again over 15% gross yield) at their current price of $1.26.

It hardly needs saying - both companies are currently priced with a built-in fear that something nasty is going to happen ... but just how nasty will it really be?

As I have said previous posts, the consolidation in the finance industry will benefit those that are still around. There will always be a need for finance companies to fill in the role banks cannot fill.

DPC has a NTA of around $2.00 and the backing of the large shareholders. I also like their business model. There maybe some short term weakness, but the long term future looks bright.

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

As I have said previous posts, the consolidation in the finance industry will benefit those that are still around. There will always be a need for finance companies to fill in the role banks cannot fill.

DPC has a NTA of around $2.00 and the backing of the large shareholders. I also like their business model. There maybe some short term weakness, but the long term future looks bright.

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DPC still has the highly complex, yet profitable insurance business unit.

Am wondering if they will sell that, or look to expand it as part of the turn around process.

I've always liked the DPC model (Brent King is hellbent on it!) & see DPC as one of the few small finance companies to make it through the otherside & prosper again.

If/When this happens is the main question!

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Shasta, I wish I have a crystal ball, but I dont. DPC goes into my long term portfolio, so my decision to buy is based on the company's profit guidance and the current sp. At 84 cents and a full yr profit of 6 million possible 9cps div gives us 10.7% div.

I am assuming they are selling their non core business assets and concentrating on core businesses that can add value. Also in this environment there are ample opportunities for firms with abit of cash to buy cheap under valued assets.

VIK selling down the stock is a good opportunity for long term investor like myself to pick up some more cheap shares. It also gives me great confidence that Hugh Green has pumped $20 million of his own money into DPC and a director buying more shares on the market.

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Good doctor come back to earth please -

The company's profit guidance - do you know how much of this was ongoing operating profits versus one-off gains on asset sales or asset revaluations etc? It will be a large % and probably most will come from selling the building - wonder what the NTA is now?

They have required a cash injection from major shareholders to stay afloat - Would they need this if they were generating CASH (not accounting profits?)

The dividend is high but most goes back to the shareholders who lent DPC the money (get it money go round designed to support the share price)

why assume they are selling non-core businesses - very irrational - What are thier core businesses? They seem to change every year? What business lines can they "create value" in " - please tell me as then I would be far more knowledgeable than the rest of the market

When did you read "that in this environment you can buy cheap assets" - You quoted an NTA of $2.00 when the share price was well over $1. I was flabbergasted that no other larger finance company did not grab such a bargain!

VIK is killing the share price - have you checked how many they have left to sell? On the 14th Dec 07 they had a trifling 1,797,059. When that stake clears this stock will get re-rated.

Hugh Green has LENT $20 million to keep a very large investment afloat

Have I mentioned this is the worst performing sector with the worst outlook due to a global credit crunch, indebted consumers, aversion to finance company debentures

The worm will turn when the thunderstorm has gone away - I am huddling in the shelter for now!

well said dsurf.

its all about the quality of the future earnings

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsurf

I wonder what St Lawrence paid. Funny how they are having a rights issue - must be short of cash. If the rights are not taken up maybe they will join VIK & be a seller also!!!

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Rights issue is SLPF. St Lawrence owning about 1/3 will be putting in 10 million or so and with NTA $1.50 for 75 c they probably don't mind more. SLPF appears to have some good investments generating cash but they want more to invest without lending off the bank. They have a few debenture holders to repay & no sign of new debentures so by the end of a year will be a listed company on NZX, in fact looks like will be in the next month so they won't be on unlisted I guess. Will 100 million put them in the top 50?

Strategics recent good result show what a good finance company can do!

P2R How much of the profit is capialized interest? Why are they still chasing previous investors 12 months after they withdrew all their funds? And why such a big expensive advertising campaign at the moment?

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Originally Posted by POSSUM THE CAT

P2R How much of the profit is capialized interest? Why are they still chasing previous investors 12 months after they withdrew all their funds? And why such a big expensive advertising campaign at the moment?

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I'm not sureabout cap interest.

I presume you are talking about St Laurence ads. They are promoting debentures and are only noticable because they did so little before. Thats what finance companies do. They seem to rely on 300 odd brokers mainly. Surely the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

SLPF has not done any promotion.

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Dsurf, you are missing the point of what I am saying. When it comes to business young lad you have alot to learn. I dont want to go into a debate with you on the DPC issue. The full yr result details will clearify everything. Hugh Green is a good investor and he wont put $20 million into a sinking ship.

I have put my money where my mouth is and bought more shares.

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I am not sure if i agree with you entirely. Yes Green is Smart. What finance companies dont disclose until its too late its bad debts. Thats why many have fallen over without much notice.

The co has a market cap of just under $30m and Green pumped in $10m plus the other co? seems awfully like they have a cashflow issue rather than using it as expansion. S lets see what they have expanded lter this year.

Come June or before lets see if HG extends their loan, pull out their money or just let the full term (6 months expire). If they pull out within the next 3 months then DPC are on skid row. If they extend beyond June then DPC are still in a bad way with their Cash Flow. If they let it simply run the ull 6 months then that would be the best sign for shareholders.

Why has HG and the other co invest $20m? Well HG has a 20% stake in DPC but if he feels that his loan is in jepordy the he will pull the plug and make sure he gets back his $10m and accept a hit with the other shareholders. He may end up buying it out himself.

Watch this space..

P2R Iam talking about your favourite finance compay Strategic Finance With their adds & correspondence and I was asking you how much capitalized interest was in that large profit you were talking about. Did you also see the piece in the papers about the hole in the ground they are financing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nita

I am not sure if i agree with you entirely. Yes Green is Smart. What finance companies dont disclose until its too late its bad debts. Thats why many have fallen over without much notice.

The co has a market cap of just under $30m and Green pumped in $10m plus the other co? seems awfully like they have a cashflow issue rather than using it as expansion. S lets see what they have expanded lter this year.

Come June or before lets see if HG extends their loan, pull out their money or just let the full term (6 months expire). If they pull out within the next 3 months then DPC are on skid row. If they extend beyond June then DPC are still in a bad way with their Cash Flow. If they let it simply run the ull 6 months then that would be the best sign for shareholders.

Why has HG and the other co invest $20m? Well HG has a 20% stake in DPC but if he feels that his loan is in jepordy the he will pull the plug and make sure he gets back his $10m and accept a hit with the other shareholders. He may end up buying it out himself.

Watch this space..

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I agree with you here, Nita.

Have been watching DPC for the last 6 months or so. Was tempted to purchase just prior to the last dividend on the basis of HG's support for DPC by way of the loan.

Still watching and waiting...

Director Paul Byrnes-has been buying over last couple of months,

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Who paid up and bought 40k at 84 cents today? :rolleyes:

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A director ;)
Picked up a wee few more for myself too today @ 83c:)
Not many, Just a few.:)
BB

Yep Doc
I think VIK are doing a bit self A/Kicking. They bad mouthed DPC which i thought at the time was a very very silly thing to do. Maybe it was a personality thing. Some one bought 20K at 84c right after me. was that u.
BB

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Welcome to the band camp BB :). I ve been picking up a few DPC on weakness also. I like DPC as a recovery story and will go into the long term portfolio. At these levels you are getting over 10% yield. All the doomstayers are a good source of supply of stocks for us long term investors to buy into. :)

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Defintately has the potential as one of the "turn-a-round stories. It always had more stability than most other finance co's.

Big risk and big rewards are on offer no question. What i would want to know from dpc is how much private funds have been taken out of dpc since the subprime issue surfaced? The value of loan defaulters? what is REALLY their bad debt status (write offs) and not just what is written in the books.

Remember, they said that $20m was for expansion. Well, we have about 3 months maximum to find out. The signs are there for all to see of the REAL POSITION of DPC.

Is this going to be a turn-a-round story? Quite possibly... time will tell. just not my time to dip my toes in

Nita
Let us know the answers coz they are good questions.
BB

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

BB, I have noticed that whenever there are stock offered at these prices, someone would pay up and buy it. :D

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...........:D.........
and I'll beat you too the next lot..... if I can :D
BB

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Dsurf, you are missing the point of what I am saying. When it comes to business young lad you have alot to learn. I dont want to go into a debate with you on the DPC issue. The full yr result details will clearify everything. Hugh Green is a good investor and he wont put $20 million into a sinking ship.

I have put my money where my mouth is and bought more shares.

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I see good doctor that occasionally the young lad can get one over grandad. Your 6 mill "profit" forecast is now 3 to 4 million!! due to less loan fees from less loans & bad debts - didn't take long to be downgraded -

Also is that Hugh I see getting his "loan" back in the announcement below? Sort of the opposite to insiders buying more?

Qn: why did he loan in the first place.

An: because DPC is draining cash - reduced fee income - quality assets like direct broking sold (they could have cleaned up under kiwisaver) - bad debts increasing - fixed costs remain.

DPC
29/02/2008
FORECAST

REL: 1700 HRS Dorchester Pacific Limited

FORECAST: DPC: Revised Profit Guidance

Dorchester Pacific Limited has today revised its profit guidance for the 2008
financial year to between $3 million and $4 million net profit after tax
(previously $6 million). This is a result of reduced lending volumes, a
consequent reduction in loan fee income and increased provisioning in
Dorchester Finance.

Dorchester Finance currently holds $33 million in cash or cash equivalents,
representing a healthy 12% of Dorchester Finance's total assets. This
position is after repaying a $20 million loan to related parties of our two
major shareholders.

Also since they made 3.1m profit (including gain on sale of the property) in the first half - this means they expect between 0 & 900K profit in the second half. Not going to be a big divie on 900K! & if it is then they are borrowing to fund it which would be even worse.

I am a little bit surprised. To me it doesnt make sense for HG to get is loan money back unless he has serious concerns about the cash flow of DPC. I read the intial announcement that the load was for a specified term but gave HG the right to withdraw at any time. If DPC do not have a cash flow problem then the only other possible conclusion is they need the money for another investment.

Still warning bells if you ask me

Might be a Fire sale of Strategic Finance as Allco try to get out of trouble

Quote:

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Originally Posted by POSSUM THE CAT

Might be a Fire sale of Strategic Finance as Allco try to get out of trouble

---

I suspect that Jock Hobbs and his mates will just buy back the 50% they previously sold to Allco - for a great deal less than they sold it for. A great deal for them.

Questions are now being asked of DPC.

Dorchester held $33m in cash or equivalent. Is this enough, I doubt it, $33m can be wiped out at the stroke of Helen and Cullens pen.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_art...siness%20Today

Quote:

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Originally Posted by COLIN

I suspect that Jock Hobbs and his mates will just buy back the 50% they previously sold to Allco - for a great deal less than they sold it for. A great deal for them.

---

Nah, it was a crap deal for them. They got paid in Allco HIT shares.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Interesting buying on market in DPC today.

---

Don't you mean interesting 'selling'. The sellers are in control of this stock.

I thought CEO's were meant to support a company & industry. The bizarre board of DPC has picked the biggestclown I have heard of in a long time. Read the following response following a 16% reduction in the share price the preceding day. It would make me cry if I was a holder!

Mr Walker predicted the industry would shrink by half or more within two years or even virtually disappear.

He said finance companies needed to find alternative sources of funding from debentures.

He said in January that Dorchester's debenture reinvestment rate had fallen to around 40 per cent in December, which he said was "not bad".

Before the crisis, it had been 65-73 per cent across the industry.

"It's very simple mathematics. If it (the reinvestment rate) goes to zero and with average debentures 18 to 24 months, then in that time the industry won't exit.

"If the long-run reinvestment rate is 50 per cent, then the industry is going to halve."

He said banks were not really in a position to fill the void as "they have their own issues".

Many have lost billions in the US subprime mortgage market resulting in a credit crunch. In that environment they are loathe to lend and have lost their appetite for risk.

Raising money through equity markets is not an option, for similar reasons.

Mr Walker said he wouldn't be surprised to see more finance company collapses. Others will simply close shop.


Fire the clown please!

Rather than "support a company or industry" I like CEO's that tell that truth.

The "clown" has said what he thinks and he is right. Unless things turn around for the finance companies, they *won't* exist.

If no one gives them money, then they have no money to give to other people. If this scenario lasts long enough, even a "clown" can figure out that there is no business left at the end of it.

A scenario is just one possible outcome - yes doomsday is a scenario - hardly encourages the share price or potential equity injections via share or rights issues.

Actually I agree they should close the doors, sell the assets, return any surplus funds to shareholders.

Great strategic planning by the head of the company!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by COLIN

I suspect that Jock Hobbs and his mates will just buy back the 50% they previously sold to Allco - for a great deal less than they sold it for. A great deal for them.

---

Just by way of correction, I now note that Allco later bought the remaining 50% of Strategic so that they are now sole owners.
If Allco is forced to sell they should be able to arouse some buying interest, even in today's market. Strategic is one of the sounder Finance Coys (one of the few on Chris Lee's A List, for instance) but it is going to be hard for even them to stem the tide of nervous investors not renewing, short of being taken over by a manifestly strong party.
(But all this should be under a separate thread, of course.)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsurf

I thought CEO's were meant to support a company & industry. The bizarre board of DPC has picked the biggestclown I have heard of in a long time. Read the following response following a 16% reduction in the share price the preceding day. It would make me cry if I was a holder! ...

---

He actually made this comment weeks ago, it has nothing to do with the big drop in the shareprice...

I must admit that I'm happy that Dorchester no longer owns Direct as I might have started getting a bit paraniod during the period between selling shares and receiving the cash in the bank.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Steve

He actually made this comment weeks ago, it has nothing to do with the big drop in the shareprice...

I must admit that I'm happy that Dorchester no longer owns Direct as I might have started getting a bit paraniod during the period between selling shares and receiving the cash in the bank.

---

It is not important when he made the comments - it is important when investors read them and the decide to dell. He is creating the impression that DPC does not have a viable future. This is bizarre from a CEO!

Yesterday, chief executive Andrew Walker said the company was focusing on preserving liquidity, aggressively realising assets and looking for sources of funding beyond the retail debenture market.

Analyst John Kidd, of McDouall Stuart, said the finance company situation appeared to be playing out along expected lines.

Large, secure companies with diverse funding sources were benefiting from attractive lending opportunities thrown up as less secure companies, particularly those overly reliant on retail debenture funding, struggled.

The outlook was looking increasingly grim for those firms unable to secure alternate funding from the likes of banks, who were themselves now more cautious about who they extended loans to due to the ongoing international credit crunch, said Kidd. "They're taking a very risk averse approach. Only the strongest companies will be able to secure bank lines."

Walker confirmed Dorchester was finding it difficult to secure alternate funding.

"You can imagine it's not the easiest job to diversify funding when the international debt markets are suffering a rather large correction." (excuses, excuses - lack of strategic planning!)

Brian Jolliffe, managing director of Pyne Gould Corporation, which owns finance company Marac, said that should have been a priority long before recent events unfolded.

"If diversification wasn't part of the funding strategy particularly in the last 12 or 18 months then the reality is that it's going to be extremely difficult in this marketplace to be able to put those alternatives in place now."

He confirmed Marac was enjoying increased profitability from new loans it was writing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bermuda

I havent studied DPC but I was speaking to someone in the know who told me things are settling down but its hard when your enquiries have been knocked 60%.

Says it all I think

---

As they said in the latest report "Reduced Lending sees reduction in profit." Not too hard to work out in this environment.Get out.

My prediction is that South Canterbury Finance will soon emerge as the dominant player. Alan Hubbard is one of the shrewdest businessmen around. He has stocked up with oodles of longer-term funding and banking lines, well before the storm hit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by COLIN

My prediction is that South Canterbury Finance will soon emerge as the dominant player. Alan Hubbard is one of the shrewdest businessmen around. He has stocked up with oodles of longer-term funding and banking lines, well before the storm hit.

---

Fully agree Hubbard is one of the shrewdest businessmen around. That why he and Churcher have 6.2million Roma Petroleum shares (ASX RPM ) which places them as the no.7 shareholder.

This little company has a very bright future, not too sure about DP though. Check RPM out. Big big upside.

Are Directors hoping to privatise this company slowly on the cheap

you are on to it... panning out a classic example of small shareholders missing out at the for the benefit of a select few.

Dr Who Not if they panic and sell like they are doing at moment. Then they might have to pay valuation for 1or2 percent of the shares. Liquidation might be something to consider.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

It doesnt matter how low the sp goes, if there is a T/O they will have to pay valuation which should be close to NTA which is around $1.70 or there abouts. At current levels the company has market cap of around $22 million, hence trading below its cash holdings? Can someone confirm this please.

---

Im no accountant so please excuse me if i dont make any sense. The problem i see with the company is cashflow. Your NTA that you are talking about doesnt clealry define the true value of the company. Simply because to company looks to have financial problems and by their own admission have a shrinking business. The ability to raise capital comes into question let alone the risk of laon defaulters. Valuation of their assets may and most probably likely are overstated.

The the tru value of the company is 1.70 per share then why is the current sp less than 50%. Something doesnt add up and forgive but finance companies that are making paper profits are going bankrupt. Is DPC next? maybe not but as i pointed out recently. I would have a big concern if HHG pulled their money out before the full term of their loan. It doesnt guarentee anything but does raise red flags.

I am still in the view that the average shareholder will get screwed and a select few will be their to mop up and make a small killing.

only my view and i hope i am completely off the mark

I am curious as to why one of the directors is buying shares. I also wonder what the share price would be if he wasn't buying.
If you look at this business, the finance company isn't lending. The investment advisary business is being sold. They have left a Reverse Annuity Mortgage business that has a limited market. They have a savings scheme that isn't linked to Kiwisaver. The insurance business i believe was tied in to the car market.
The profit downgrade means the only profit earned this year was from the sale of the Dorchester Building.
Where is there a strategy??
The loans made by the two shareholders have been repaid.
The only activity for DPC appears to be repaying debenture holders.
And yet one of the Directors is buying shares.........................mmmmmm

LEW

I am predicting DPC life expectancy to last 6 months tops in its current format. From "sources" unnamed DPC are suffering from lack of investors which under the current economic climate is not hard to understand why.

Why is a director buying shares? Either one to instill confidence in the market or 2 is that he believes it is a good investment or both.

discl. I am no expert and information i have is only through a 3rd party. Please do your own research rather than believe a single word from someone on this thread like myself

NITA... The 25% shareholding in St. Laurence would make up a major part of that $1.70 NTA wouldn't it?

I note that St Laurence are having a rights issue of convertible notes that convert to ordinary shares in seven months time. The issue price is 70 cents converting to $1.
This would have to dilute Dorchesters holding I believe.
I can't see $1.70 NTA.
Company being run by a young Investment Banker with no experience in a bear market and a Board who appear to be sitting on their hands waiting for something to happen.
I will be interested to see how much further they fall.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lewinsky

I note that St Laurence are having a rights issue of convertible notes that convert to ordinary shares in seven months time. The issue price is 70 cents converting to $1.
This would have to dilute Dorchesters holding I believe.
I can't see $1.70 NTA.
Company being run by a young Investment Banker with no experience in a bear market and a Board who appear to be sitting on their hands waiting for something to happen.
I will be interested to see how much further they fall.

---

The rights issue is for St Laurence Property & Finance not St Laurence itself. I hold SLPF and will be taking up the rights. The rights are priced at 70c with the SLPF NTA being around $1.40 (hopefully still $1.40ish) so it's a bit of a no-brainer.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Snapper

The rights issue is for St Laurence Property & Finance not St Laurence itself. I hold SLPF and will be taking up the rights. The rights are priced at 70c with the SLPF NTA being around $1.40 (hopefully still $1.40ish) so it's a bit of a no-brainer.

---

St Lawrence need the money to develop properties they already own - yeah right - they can't get tenants unless they do them up why else would they go to market for money at the worst time possible & at a huge discount.

Does DPC have the money to not be diluted - NO - they have huge cashflow issues themselves. So NTA will continue to fall - I wonder what the last reported NTA was for Bear Stearns, Blue Chip, Allco ..........

No brainer????

Anyone got an opinion?

Given my total lack of belief in management I think they will be last in the queue as a last gasp desparate bid for survival so having checked out all The Guru's posts & knowing that a cataclysmic event is scheduled for Dec 08, I will pick Sept 17 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsurf

St Lawrence need the money to develop properties they already own - yeah right - they can't get tenants unless they do them up why else would they go to market for money at the worst time possible & at a huge discount.

Does DPC have the money to not be diluted - NO - they have huge cashflow issues themselves. So NTA will continue to fall - I wonder what the last reported NTA was for Bear Stearns, Blue Chip, Allco ..........

No brainer????

---

No brainer re SLPF not DPC. St laurence will be underwriting the issue which is an act of good faith.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nita

I am a little bit surprised. To me it doesnt make sense for HG to get is loan money back unless he has serious concerns about the cash flow of DPC. I read the intial announcement that the load was for a specified term but gave HG the right to withdraw at any time. If DPC do not have a cash flow problem then the only other possible conclusion is they need the money for another investment.

Still warning bells if you ask me

---

this was my quote on 3rrd March. In less than 3 weeks since that post dpc has lost around 30% of its share value.

Someone mentioned a possible rights issue for dpc over the last couple of days. If this is the case then my quote as above rings even more true.

The simple problem at the moment is noone is investing into finance company's. Without being misquoted, by that i mean that the general public are staying well away which imo can only lead to a further demise of dpc.

Anyone have any views on how dpc not only WILL but CAN turn it around?

I dont know whats going on, but a director (Paul Anthony BYRNES) continues to mope up the shares on market. He is up to 516,376 shareholding now. I wouldnt think he would continue to buy stock if he doesnt believe in the company. Guess as you will, but I am sure Byrnes know more about the company than any of us here.

DR Who because of this I am prepared to hold at large loss & buy more if it drops much more. Some of the DPC shares I have held since before the 1987 crash.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dr_Who

I dont know whats going on, but a director (Paul Anthony BYRNES) continues to mope up the shares on market. He is up to 516,376 shareholding now. I wouldnt think he would continue to buy stock if he doesnt believe in the company. Guess as you will, but I am sure Byrnes know more about the company than any of us here.

---

He could also be putting himslef in a strong bargaining position down the track.. again at the expenses of small shareholders. at least its getting interesting

And despite this, the shareprice continues to drop...

and interesting to note that their cash reserves are now more than their market capitalisation..... take from Chris Lee newsletter.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackcap

and interesting to note that their cash reserves are now more than their market capitalisation..... take from Chris Lee newsletter.

---

Suggesting that the market is expecting them to burn cash?!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackcap

and interesting to note that their cash reserves are now more than their market capitalisation..... take from Chris Lee newsletter.

---

Could also suggest that the bear market cycle is further advanced within the small finance company sector as opposed to the general over market (NZX).
It is possible that the first signs that the NZX bear is dying, may arise within this sector (assuming bear cycle subsets{secondaries} are equal in length to the primary bear cycle).

If & when this may happen is any ones guess.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackcap

and interesting to note that their cash reserves are now more than their market capitalisation..... take from Chris Lee newsletter.

---

Thats what I have been saying all along and are prepare to hold my DPC holdings and maybe, just maybe buy more. Will need to do more due diligence.

It jsut strikes me as odd that Byrnes cannot buy stock from VIK and have to buy on market. Maybe VIK has stop selling? 500k shareholding and growing is no small holding. Wonder how many shares he is looking to accummulate.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blackcap

and interesting to note that their cash reserves are now more than their market capitalisation..... take from Chris Lee newsletter.

---

That may not mean anything if they have to use those cash reserves to repay depositors. It says nothing about the recoverability of their loan exposures, or whether they have made adequate bad debt provisions.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by COLIN

That may not mean anything if they have to use those cash reserves to repay depositors. It says nothing about the recoverability of their loan exposures, or whether they have made adequate bad debt provisions.

---

This is quite correct. This is the big unknown is how significant are the "bad debts" Yes they will have to pay depositers that is coming up. Admittedly I have done almost no research on this company of late apart from viewing whats posting here.

What i can say is not surpisingly, very little people are investing into dpc into term deposits or cash on call type of accounts. Somewhere down the line this will bite and bite very hard.

What are peoples take on HHG and the other party (cant remember) pulling their investment out prior to maturity? I have mentioned this before but no one shared their views.

Unnamed sources have indicated that dpc maybe on shaky ground. Take that for what you like and as an outsider looking in i would say, invest with caution.

Please do your own research and all information supplied are of my own opinion only OR has been provided from a third party. Please DYOR

discl.Brought this stock at $2.80 and sold at a little over $2.50. Now do not hold

There does not seem to be any accumulation from a technical standpoint/
http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/9...2032008lm3.png

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hoop

It is possible that the first signs that the NZX bear is dying, may arise within this sector (assuming bear cycle subsets{secondaries} are equal in length to the primary bear cycle).

---

Could you explain this further?

Not a very pretty chart at all. The only positive is the Director increasing his holding on the way down - unless he is foolishly averaging down his holding...

AMR and Steve

AMR quote explain further

From a TA perspective (within NZ-small finance company sector) the Elliott wave principle is showing wave c which is better known by ordinary investor as capitulation (same in Financials USA). This is the damaging last half stage of the bear cycle, which gives the investor the feeling of doom and gloom, despair and no hope. This is exactly the stage what is happening on this NZ-SF sector at present. To the broader market overall the bear cycle is not at this stage yet. It could be possible (not known yet) that the overall market may suffer a teddy bear cycle and capitulation maybe shallow with only certain sectors taking the blunt end such as the small finance companies...or a nastier (grizzley) bear may emerge later using the self feeding demise into other economic sector areas. eg Recessions

My view on this is that the financial sector was the trigger to ending the bull market in the USA. In NZ we have had financial problems on a small scale all throughout 2007 as we are well aware by looking at the stress of the local finance companies, however the lag effect prevailed and compounded by USA it was as late as (August)November 2007 that the tide turned for NZ Inc. As this financial problem in NZ is now a year old the big damaging shake out is near the end and the surviving Finance companies have now developed their new strategies of doing business in an altered financial landscape, and it is only the investor perception (doom & gloom) which will take some time to return to normal (confidence). There may still be collapses of weak companies but I personally think we know which of the companies are survivors. Chris Lee's latest summary gives a good indication as to the health of these companies he is in constant contact with.

When to return to the battered small financial markets is up to the investment strategies that each individual investor uses as well as their psychological makeup.

At present the "perceived" risk is huge, real risk is less but is unknown as to what degree. (Note: At Phase 3 of a Bull market "perceived" risk is low real risk is high)

Many investors nowadays are using TA and await buy signals therefore lessening the risk. The problem with this is with illiquid shares especially in the SF companies is when buy signals emerge there will be a sudden lift in share price and many may miss their ideal re-entry price.

Steve..The likes of Byrnes at DPC, Rod Duke and Alaister Wall at PPL, Jan Cameron at PPG, and countless others under the radar are taking an investment strategy approach of invest now to maybe lose some money but reap a much bigger reward later. For us smaller investors it must be remembered that Cameron Duke and Co are buying large chunks of shares in low share liquidity companies, only possible to do so at certain times. However by using this strategy you don't miss out.

Long term investors (e.g Hoop:D) who saw this bear coming and got out early will also be looking to buy back their portfolio before the buy signals start firing. It all has to do with how much risk you are prepared to take when timing to re-enter.

Those investors who are riding out the downturn, the SF sector bear cycle is probably at the stage where it would be foolish to jump ship and sell now. You have decided earlier to take the long term view of holding and that discipline must be heeded, especially now at this later stage. Buying to average down may be premature.

AMR + Steve.....There are cycles within cycles, many at different oscillations and frequencies. With Byrnes, he may be thinking the worst is over in the SF sector and it is time to buy up amongst the carnage, DPC is as cheap as chips.

Personally I must admit DPC DFH and NZF are all looking extremely attractive FA wise, but I am still undecided about the re-enter timing. (How much risk to take buying before the TA buy signals).
Note: My buying before TA buy signals strategy only apply to illiquid shares...liquid shares (eg FBU) wait until TA buy signals)

Been in and out of DPC since 1998. Bought /sold DFH 2006-2007 (+50% profit)... Both on my watchlist.

AMR hope this explaination helps.
:)Hoop

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Steve

The only positive is the Director increasing his holding on the way down - unless he is foolishly averaging down his holding...

---

Quite right - foolishly averaging down would be bad, but cleverly averaging down would be good.

In other words if the price rises above his average buying price he will be happy (and in retrospect his strategy will be clever) - and if it doesn't he won't be happy (and in retrospect his strategy will be foolish).

Good post, Hoop! :)

Personally i am a far more a FA than a TA. Hence my normally position of buying long term. I generally dont worry about the wild fluctuations that happen on a daily basis.

The difficult thing with financial company's is how good really are the fundamentals. During such a difficult time it is almost impossible to know. The average investor only goes by what they know. Again this is a real issue for me as its almost impossible to tell.

Hoop. You are correct that during the past few months, many investors have been spooked especuially the finance companys. Some of these are quite possibly making steady profits on paper then they get gazumped through cash flow problems when investors pull their money out.

The odds as i see it is that dpc have about a 25% chance of going belly up by the end of the year. There of course is a good chance that we are seeing close to the bottom. This may provide some extremely good returns. As Hoop mentioned or sort of, its risk versus reward.

I also remember about 6 years ago i got sucked into an Aust company that had more cash reserves than the current sp. It also had negligable operating costs yet within about 12 months it lost about 80% of it share value. At the time i thought it was almost a no brainer. Anyway, you live and keep learning.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bermuda

As they said in the latest report "Reduced Lending sees reduction in profit." Not too hard to work out in this environment.Get out.

---

Nita,
I hope you are not buying. You cant turn a profit if enquiries are diminishing. A mate of mine who works for them said it is very hard when the enquiry level is down 60 %.

Why bother with this stock which is under pressure?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nita

The difficult thing with financial company's is how good really are the fundamentals. During such a difficult time it is almost impossible to know. The average investor only goes by what they know. Again this is a real issue for me as its almost impossible to tell.

Hoop. You are correct that during the past few months, many investors have been spooked especuially the finance companys. Some of these are quite possibly making steady profits on paper then they get gazumped through cash flow problems when investors pull their money out.

The odds as i see it is that dpc have about a 25% chance of going belly up by the end of the year. There of course is a good chance that we are seeing close to the bottom. This may provide some extremely good returns. As Hoop mentioned or sort of, its risk versus reward.

---

Excellent post by Hoop - and absolutely agree with Nita that it is very difficult for anybody (except probably the accountants putting the balance sheet together) to assess the fundamentals.

What sort of comforts me (sometimes nervous about it, but still holding DPC) is the fact that P. A. Byrnes (the guy who bought more than 500 k shares this year) signed exactly this balance sheet. He has as well (according to his CV) more than 20 years accounting experience. Hope he knows what he is doing. Not likely that he wants to invest more than $365,000 of his own money into a company likely to go belly-up - wouldn't you think so?

Blackcap

I sold out of this stock when the sp was in the $2.50's. something like about 2 or 3 or even 4 years ago for a 12% loss. I have no intention to ever invest in finance companys. dpc was my first and last.

Blackpepper, you make a valuable point about the director signing off the balance sheet.

Just noticed that Brynes is a chartered accountant with 20 years experience as CEO and director. He is also the director for HBY and Top Energy. He is no fool. Not one who would put his own money into a losing company. Does he know something the market doesnt?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dr_Who

Just noticed that Brynes is a chartered accountant with 20 years experience as CEO and director. He is also the director for HBY and Top Energy. He is no fool. Not one who would put his own money into a losing company. Does he know something the market doesnt?

---

Dr Who - I think this was the point I tried to make 2 posts ago ...

Let's speculate what he might know what the markets don't -

1) The markets are not sure whether the reported NTA of some $1.70 per share is for real - I am sure, P.A. Byrnes knows the answer!
2) He must have as well a good idea how the cashflow looks like. The DPC CEO (Andrew Walker) stated in September 2007 (business update sent to shareholders) that even with a re-investment rate of 0% and no new investments they would still in 12 months have money in the bank.
3) He might have an idea what DPC plans to do with its money (that's at this stage pretty fuzzy for shareholders, given that they got rid of the finance business for private clients, some real estate and try to sell Equity / Investor).

Not sure how the reverse mortgage business takes off - and I think they get the money for that anyway through Kiwibank, but there might be opportunities for the surviving finance companies - people will still need money in future - maybe they want to buy some of the competitors?

I dont know exactly whats going on, but I have a feeling this company is groomed to be bought out in the near future.