KW said "entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA"
So have these two simple triggers occurred for CEN? There's your answer.
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by my reckoning you'd have been in last May , and seriously starting to consider exiting now by that method. for little if any gain.
And in 2016 you'd have been right royally screwed using that trigger and exit strategy.
Attachment 9585
In fairness to KW, have you applied her exit criteria, or just assumed the exit criteria is the reverse of the entry criteria?
In any event, the KW method I hoped MauroNZ would conclude (for CEN) can leave a lot of money on the table for sells and is quite late for buys, sometimes very late, even triggering in some cases when the SP has reentered a short/med term down trend.
There is no magic bullet trading methods that works for every share, it takes time to determine for any given share what combination of indicators which when triggered in sequence, gives a greater confidence to buy or sell.
Hoop posted some terrific material on this thread, protege of Phadreus. I enjoyed and now miss both of their insights, analysis and willingness to share.
I find it amusing that some think they can apply a 'single share price trigger' figure as when they should buy and sell any particular share they choose, such as:
"entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA"
Not all shares behave in the same way.
Contact is a utility like share which bounces around in a relatively narrow price band. The best strategy is to buy near the bottom of the band and sell near the top (if you are a trader). If you wait for the uptrend to become established you will miss the low risk gains. Such a rule also ignores dividends which have traditionally provided some 80% of the gains on this share. Try using a trading rule that leaves out 80% of the relevant data points and see how you get on.
IMO trading Contact is a terrible idea because it is not volatile enough, while the juicy divdends reward buy and hold investors. Blindly following the trading rule for CEN as defined will likely lead to terrible results, far worse than buy and hold unless you are a broker who will be happy to pocket your commissions on the way.
SNOOPY
Thanks Snoopy (btw I pay a good attention to your posts) I was trying to practice the principle by understanding the charts with few different shares and at the time I posted I was just looking CEN. Not with the idea of trading it but with the idea to learn as I believe investing is always a learning.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by KW https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images...post-right.png
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.
1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).
Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517
2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.
MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)
Attachment 4518
Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519
3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).
ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520
I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.
Any stocks left not looking like a sell T/A wise?
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by KWhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images...post-right.png
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.
1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).
Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517
2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.
MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)
Attachment 4518
Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519
3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).
ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520
I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.
Try applying the above rules to FPH :)