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One seriously tasty feed at the current outrageously low share price
And don’t forget the perfect inverse bell curve pattern developing taking the share price back to 380 (+70%)
You are right - the fundamentals we know of look very compelling, even if we assume that the earnings drop this (and the next) year. And hey, who really can predict whats happening in 3 years from now?
One reason to stay away would be however the "never drink and buy in a downtrend". I guess it comes down to whether you think you know more than the market ... and no doubt - at some stage it certainly must bottom out - doesn't it? So why not now? or after the next downwave? or after the downwave after the next? or after .... ;
There are still these roughly 5 million Milford shares waiting to be dumped ... or do we think they sold a million and changed their mind without any new data?
Personal preference when to buy in ... I think I will review any decision whether I will get back in after we have a confirmed trend change (which we don't have now).
With Turners business model based on an ecosystem of clipping the ticket in all aspects of owing a second car throughout its lifecycle you’d think they’d make ever increasing excessive profits
Key metric is npbt margin ...this has been shrinking over the last few years. F19 margin probably less than 9% when it was well over 10% a few years ago.
Conclusion — I think they have far too many ticket collectors - it seems that clipping tickets is getting costlier and the ticket clippers are becoming less productive.
Read an article the other day that showed that the stocks of companies that use the word ‘ecosystem’ in their reports tend to under perform the market (US study)
Two companies in NZ that come to mind who have started touting their ‘ecosystem’ are Turners and Thl .....hmmmm
There will be an industry consolidation but entries to barriers are so low that consolidations in the past have not delivered gains.
Any ex-used car salesman can more or less set up as a business - import 25 cars at say, $10k = $250,000, rent a yard and a new player emerges.
Sure, but with all the doom around on this thread we should not forget that while selling cars generates most of TRA's revenue - the margins (and with that the earnings) do come from insurance and finance (generating together two thirds of TRA's earnings). The hurdles to get into these two areas are much higher.
But yes, I don't like the current trend either and decided to watch the spectacle from the side lines ;);
Plenty of work for the SP to do yet to establish any credentials from a TA point of view that the downward trend has finished. See 6 month chart attached showing red 30 day MA line and black 100 day MA line Attachment 10385
The new Whangarei site [ex Placemakers] is a superior site than their old site.It is better located and holds 25% more vehicles.
It has been developed by Turners to meet their needs.It is owned by Turners,therefore Turners will be able to book the development margin.
They offcourse can either hold onto it, or sell and lease it back.
The days of $2.14 are gone and the days of $2 will never happen and the days of Beagle gnashing his teeth have begun.
Interesting. Just had another look at the Milford announcement:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...509/294850.pdf
Over the last 12 months they first bought 831k shares at an average SP of $2.86; Obviousy - they bought into a downtrend, maybe no KW fans ;);
And after that they sold 1588k shares for an average price of $2.40;
I guess this means sometimes over the last 12 months they changed their view on TRA (might have been related to their potential for a profit downgrade, who knows?).
Question is - if you two assume the SP will go stellar from here - what reason do you see for Milford to have changed their view - again? I guess why would they sell anyway at an average of $2.40, if they think the share is fairly priced at that level?
On the other hand, if they still think the share is overvalued - why do you think Milford would not continue to sell into any strength? And yes, just looking into their announcement - they still have more than 6m shares to offload.
Might keep the SP for a while below the MA 100 - which happens to be around $2.50.
I guess if we see at some stage some strength on the way up (which we don't yet), than we will soon know (they would need to issue another SSH if they keep selling) - one way or another.
News like this don't help SP or convince investors to buy.....
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-...wdown/10875580