When the take over doesn't happen, but you know it's happening soon...
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikynTH9oJg8
Hold fast here men. The take over is coming. We just need to give it more time. Let's try again tomorrow, once more.
The selling is likely coming from cashed strapped sophs, perhaps Perpetual again, who need to free up funds and take advantage of other market opportunities in the recent turmoil. Or, oblivious retail holders thinking the stock is in a down trend and have no idea a take over is imminent. Or, the UBS trading desk who have nothing better to do.
Remember sophs like to buy and sell while accumulating and vice versa. A drop down from 18 to 16 doesn't mean much. Similarly, if it trades back up to 18-20 again that's mealiness too. It's just churning the TERP range and like I've always said on this thread you need 2-3 weeks post retail entitlement for a move up to 22-25, as loose stock is absorbed.
The volume today suggests that it's in a 'wait and see' mode with the typical Sharesies 'fill and sell' in the morning, and then the usual dump at close. Nothing interesting happening really.
I thought Sky had a great weekend with the resumption of sport. Things look like they are back to normal. A major de-risking in my opinion.
The Augusta take over today is a prime example of false 'bottom fishing'. The fallacy that if it was worth X before Covid it must be X -1. This is just lazy economics. Metlifecare is another prime example. Sure, some heavily exposed companies have been effected, but only 1-2 years of earnings worth, that's all. The housing market is solid and most prime stocks overseas are hitting new highs. With the economy fully supported by the government, there is always going to be discretionary spending available to consumers, especially for Pay TV, as that will be one of the last things a family household will cut. Factor in reduced sporting right expenses for Sky, and you could make a case that Covid is a positive.
Weather a take over comes tomorrow, next week, or next month, it doesn't matter. Provided the following does not happen:
A) IFT make an announcement regarding another take over.
B) Prime institutional holders start selling significant parcels, example; Black Crane, ACC, Vandguard.
Other things to look forward to in the short term = Forsyth Barr buy recommendation. You know it's coming, as we pretty much paid for it and about time these muppets did something useful.
One thing I do know is that Martin won't want to front up to a shareholder meeting. Just lol if Handley shows his face. The only meeting shareholders want to attend is a take over one. With end of financial year coming, and both Vodafone and Sky restructuring, it's time for Sky to finally 'rest in peace' and be removed from the NZX and away from all the hecklers. Everyone has an opinion on this stock, as everyone just about has or had Sky. For good or bad this company isn't going away from the NZ media landscape. Shareholders win or lose but the consumer will always benefit.
Cry 'God for Vodafone! IFT! And Brooksfield!'