This book inspired me to build my retail business also!
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Good question, jimdog31 and there are two observations to be made from how the sp has powered on since the 'disappointing-lower-than-ST-expected' $20m profit update :
1. Market, especially the institutional market, does not really take as much note of the forecasts made here as much as we do.
2. Market is waking up to the real potential behind this outstanding retailer, especially its growing & successful online presence, which augers well for the 2021 $10.00 initial price target I have in mind for HLG.
those with a knowledge of the board and new CEO have any views on this new management team? Talked with them at the last AGM?
the lastest trading update is surely a win for the team.
someone said over 8 by week end...? hmm not sure the market agrees yet...
there are the believers and the rest ... surely there must be more believers soon. what more do they have to do...perhaps the shipping stories around the world of back logs is weighting on minds..
. dividend being the last question?
I was careful not to be one of the posters claiming it would be $8+ this week. Rome wasn't built in a day but these guys are doing an excellent job of steadily growing this iconic business.
Pure speculation on my part, but I think part of the the issue for the more thinly traded non-SX50 stocks is that retail investors are using simple trailing twelve month data and don't even bother to read earnings reports. therefore they are screening stocks based on simple metrics on their app of choice and not realizing things like dividends yields & earning ratios etc look dramatically different on a forward basis.
They might be more forward looking than you give them credit for - maybe they see FY21 as a one off boome of a year and then FY22 earnings declining to more 'normalised' levels - ie the fantastic F21 growth won't continue into FY22
After all HLG experienced stuff all in growth in FY19 and FY20 was less than FY19 and about the same as FY18 - not a growth company by any stretch of the imagination
"don't even bother to read earnings reports"
classic!!!! gosh sad but also funny... does that mean we should buy more as it DIPS!
"suppose that's growth"
averaged over 5 years? i should have done the average myself but busy with ZOOM last night.. I might be allowed to stay longer apparently and enjoy a few more summers in the sunny isles..
Takes years for europe to clear up properly and business class flights to come down in cost... we might be stuck here for a few more years!!! Zoom works! But its not really as good as being in the same room and showing off stuff. It requires a lot more work for a meeting.
I always take a five year view of growth and then try and forecast the current year.
Graph this and see if you think its growth :)
2016 $13.7m
2017 $17.3m
2018 $27.4m
2019 $29m
2020 $27.8m (Covid affected)
2021 F $37m
Speculation on what FY22 might be is exactly that, pure speculation.
By my calculations based on a forecast of $37m for FY21 the CAGR for the five years to FY21 is 22% per annum.
Not sure what your "angle" is here ? (have you sold and trying to talk the price down ?), but I think on any rational analysis anyone thinking objectively would say there's clearly been very good growth in the last 5 years which is why, (as you know seeing as you also bought at ~ $2.75 in August 2016) these have more than tripled inclusive of dividends since then.
Sometimes I worry about you mate. Don't let a bad day on the market get you down.
HLG on a forward PE of just 12 so one is buying one of the best growth companies on the NZX and paying ostensibly nothing for that growth ! Don't ever let it be said there is no such thing as a free lunch on the NZX !
Here's an idea mate, graph Glassons Australia sales for the last 5 years and see what that looks like ;)
Graphed and averaged , mean... yes wide range though.
DISC: hold some. in 2 portfolios.
Fed chair speaks tuesday but we dont think he is going to whip the 10 year into shape anytime soon.
Sales Growth 2020H1 ending Feb 1st 2020 (Pre Covid):
Glassons OZ: $54 million (11% growth)
Glassons NZ: $54 million (5% growth)
Hallensteins: $52 million (1% growth)
I think its worthwhile looking at revenue growth on a more in-depth level as well - which is where Glassons Australia really stands out (from a growing ever larger revenue base). Glassons Australia is poised now to surpass Glassons NZ in revenue this year. And there is still plenty of room for growth in Australia (Glassons has 32 stores in OZ, vs 36 in NZ - do the math on store per population comparison).
The strong growth from Glassons Australia has been somewhat masked by the flat sales at hallensteins. Having said that, it actually could be a possible growth story given the menswear brand only has 4 stores in Australia.
So easy to find some period which suits your argument. Your start year (2016) was their worst earnings year in over a decade, i.e. if you use this as a start date growth will always look spectacular.
My spreadsheet captures the last 10 years and just out of interest: 10 year earnings CAGR for HLG is only 3.6% per year. Are you sure you call this a growth company?
Obviously - market is looking forwards, and lets face it ... nobody can predict how growth will feature in the years to come. So - you are saying that in the past they have been just a tired old rag retailer with between 3 and 4 % growth pa, but the future will be so much different?
I suggest you have a look at the growth of the Glassons brand in Australia in the last few years mate that's what's been transformational for HLG. Pretty sure this is a repeat of a debate we've had before. I use my methodology because it works. That's how I've more than tripled my investment in HLG in 4 1/2 years. Plenty more growth to come.
My argument is a pretty simple one, your viewpoint incorporates a period in time from more than half a decade ago when HLG was growing very slowly.
My viewpoint concentrates on far more recent history when HLG have grown the Glassons brand very impressively in Australia.
40 years of counting beans has taught me that the very best guide to the future is the most recent past, not the past from 5-10 years ago. Each to their own.
Also notable that they have been building their online platform and fulfilment network for the last few years - which is why they were ready for the large surge in online shopping once CV unexpectedly arrived (in comparison to other brands which were dead in the water scrambling to put together even a basic offering)
You are clearly more invested into HLG than me :p; and I wish you good luck. Just make sure that HLG isn't turning into your ATM ... but I am sure you are smart enough to sell when the time cometh ... :):
15% self imposed limit for any one share is there for a good reason because I never want to be so arrogant of my own abilities to predict the future to the extent is could cause serious damage to my portfolio if I was wrong after all "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)" ;) On the balance of probabilities I am very confident though.
duplication - deleted - website plays up again ...