Originally Posted by
smokin cubans
Hey mate,
Last reported ARPU was around $7 /month not $20. GEO has aspirations to lift to $20 over time.
As I have previously explained, I believe there is some risk that ARPU has remained around $7 / month - it could have even declined - we just wont know until they report FY revenue and we can do the maths.
I have a high suspicion over anyone who reports user growth rather than revenues, when they could easily have reported sales. Especially when the gap from actual ARPU ($7) to what they want you to believe ARPU is ($20) is so large.
My suspicion is they are focussing on reporting user growth to the market because actual revenue growth will be quite pathetic given the resources they are expending to get it. eg MOA focussing on sales volume growth funded by decreasing margin even though the story they originally told was that they were a craft brewer whos strong margins would eb retained.
eg. also hate SLI reporting on meaningless metrics such as search results using their product. Reminds me of the early dot coms reporting on hits.
eg. Wynyard who release stories supposedly price sensitive, which if you do your research you realise are totally insignificant and/or just usual course of business.
Its revenue growth and potential margins that count for these little companies. Some are ok, but I hold to my line that not a single one of these crappy SAAS listings should be valued over 5x revenue (I make an exception for xero which I'd place at 10x - 15x revenues - well below current valuation and peb which has an interesting story and no revenues but again is horribly overvalued).
Was an early investor in Xero, all these other listings are horse **** or overvalued for what they are.
Vend is the only potential listing I see in the realm of being a good investment story.
Serko - what a piece of ****, the company has struggled for so long - now they get some smart cookies on the board who tell them, lose money to get revenue growth and there are suckers out there who will back you as they think every listing is a xero at the moment.