wrong thread! hahah
well yeh maybe and obviously if you'd done it when you posted you'd be in the black now.
however it depends on time frames... equally it will make a good short again at some stage .
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wrong thread! hahah
well yeh maybe and obviously if you'd done it when you posted you'd be in the black now.
however it depends on time frames... equally it will make a good short again at some stage .
Interesting article on DailyFX looking at the comparison of 2010 to the 87 and 29 crash of the AUD/USD.....
Might be drawing along bow on this one, but worth a read.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic..._on_Paths.html
For anyone that's interested, my friends run a currency strategy / report company.
You can find their daily and weekly reports ( free ) here http://www.fxmarketreport.com
They're pretty good at answering questions on FB too. http://www.facebook.com/pages/FX-Mar...3595351?ref=ts
Certainly worth checking out if you are making currency plays.
Cheers.. Shambles
I had some fun trading both ways last night with two trades long and then closed and then two trades short and then closed. I did sleep too!!
seat of the pants gut feel with micro wave counts - in that one there I saw a bit of a diagonal triangle and then a one-two pattern
I look for formations that give me a low risk entry point... and I'm not afraid to get it wrong as I do often.
I've been carrying on with it today with about another +70 net pips over half a dozen trades.
But yeh theres no clearly defined strategy so I guess that makes it vulnerable to a string of failures as well. Keep the trades small so I can sustain quite a few losses before it hurts. Obviously that keeps profits small as well but it keeps me in the game which is what I want.
But I have my financial advisor exams starting on Saturday so I really should be focussing elsewhere!
I'm not game enough to do large trades. I do alright on the 5min, but only make enough to cover a few days interst costs on my shorts.
Still in for the long hall.
That bull flag you spotted way back turned into a false break by the looks.
Anyway what are your thought on the NZD for the next week/month or so?
Yeh that flag looked good but was a sucker alright.... I tend to think that we've probably seen most (but not all just yet ) of this phase of USD strength (NZD weakness) and so sooooooon we'll see some return to strength or at least consolidation for Kiwi and Aussi $. But theres no evidence of it happening just yet.... and it is still better to short the rallies. I'm pretty bearish on the equity markets - with permanent short positions on S+P500 (but they too are oversold and will need to have a corrective rally soon) and lets be real here NZD is a proxy for risk so it goes where the S+P/DOW goes.
Very true.
I agree the Kiwi is certainly oversold, but with the way Europe is going, it could go a lot lower. Especially with Gold booming to $1250 and the DOW well under 9800. Things don’t look particularly optimistic.
I’m standing aside from equities for awhile. Holding BP stock has been nasty.
Hopefully a fall in the NZD will help.
I just went long NZDUSD today on China export numbers that is very positive.
Only playing with a very small amount, cos I am not doing much on the equities market.
yes you did well Dr. no more complaining about how you never do well at forex, that was impeccable timing
Are you going to cut and run yet ?
I'm not trading this week (exams) but noticed this in the Herald today
"The market's given the kiwi a boost since the Reserve Bank raised rates on Thursday - you've got to say it's been supportive for the currency," said Tim Kelleher, vice president of institutional banking and markets at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Weak retail sales data is expected today, and if the figures fall short of expectations, "the kiwi's going to get bashed," he said.
Interesting to see what happens , these guys always have strong opinions but only sometimes get it right.
Hi Belgarion,
i am expecting upward movement in both the aud and NZD,hopefully this pattern might morph into something
as i am going to trade the D leg oh and BTW Pete good luck for your exams this week
cheers Roddy
hey thanks Roddy! 3 to go. one each afternoon , man they are gruelling.
Peat, go short on NZD/USD due to China further tightening and falling property prices?
Portugal downgraded 2 notches aswell.
Anyone else on to this?
rising wedge?
wouldve been a good day to sell !
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/nz-do...s-down-31-2007
New Zealand’s foreign exchange market handled an average of US$9.5 billion per day in April 2010, down from US$13 billion in 2007, but up from US$7.5 billion in 2004 and US$4.2 billion in 2001, the Reserve Bank reported as part of the BIS survey, which is carried out every 3 years by 53 central banks.
The New Zealand part of the survey included data from the five major banks participating in the wholesale financial market.
“Since 2007, foreign exchange turnover in New Zealand has decreased by almost 31%," said the Reserve Bank's Head of Financial Markets Simon Tyler.
"Much of the decline is due to a fall in foreign exchange swap transaction volume, only a modest 3% is due to a fall in the New Zealand dollar versus the United States Dollar since April 2007. This contrasts sharply with international data which show a 20% increase in global foreign exchange turnover (including spot transactions, outright forwards and foreign exchange swaps) to US$4.0 trillion per day from U$3.3 trillion in April 2007," Tyler said.
“Overall, the falls in transaction volumes in New Zealand and the New Zealand dollar have been mainly driven by less overseas interest in the New Zealand dollar and a shift from short to longer-term funding by New Zealand’s banks.”
We can now buy more USD than AUD!
I guess NZ unemployment dropping and US printing $600b is taking its toll.
The USD is dirt.
A question I cant get my head around: Increased inflation pressures and a subsequent increase in the OCR (Or expectations of) appreciates the NZD in terms of the US. But I read that inflation expectations in the US (I'm assuming the FED would hike rates when this happens) will lead the USD to devalue significantly.
How can this be? Is it due to the expectations of hyper inflation creating instability?
I would have assumed that increased inflation expectations in the US would have lead to USD appreciation, not depreciation.
Or am I simply confusing the dichotomy between nominal money demand/supply and real values here.
Also, why would the US want to devalue its currency, when this simply increases the value of its real debt?
Anyway that my Q after too many lunch drinks.
it might be the fact when lenders to the US get spooked about security of repayment they will demand higher interest rates but if that goes too far it will render US debts increasingly risky and so rates will soar even higher and potentially reach some tipping point.
high inflation is not positive for a currency.
from my notes this year :
Countries with relatively higher inflation or where inflationlevels are perceived to be rising ⇒ depreciating currency.
remember inflation is related to interest rates but they are not the same thing... interest rates go up in an attempt to compensate for inflation. but if the difference between them is getting greater then you're losing ground faster (by having fixed interest deposits)
nzd hammered this arvo as S&P Revises New Zealand Foreign Currency Rating Outlook To Negative From Stable
S&P: Main Risk To NZ Rating Is Significant Weakening In Bank Credit Quality "The announcement was completely out of the blue, and the impact (on Tokyo's FX market) was large because market flows are very thin ahead of Tuesday's holiday in Japan," he says. S&P says decision due to risks from expected wider external imbalances, weakened fiscal flexibility as well as vulnerability to external shocks
"Finance Minister English says S&P move shows N.Z. should rely less on foreign cash; means country must cut foreign reliance."
But how will we pay for our overpriced houses? Earn more than we spend? huh yeah right.
I read a report from the RBNZ that NZ had spent $1.54 for every dollar we had earnt for about the last few years.
That seems insane to me
Anyway, on the NZD/USD front, when would you say there is a downtrend in place? havent yet seen lower lows or lower highs etc
.
I posted a potential short on the blog Friday based on the Ichimoku system- maximum move was about 137 pips.
This was the original chart posted 04.30 GMT Friday showing the potential track (Purple Trace) to potential target below
http://i56.tinypic.com/wcmf4i.gif
Strange how various articles have attributed the fall of the NZD - which admittedly started minutes after - to the earthquake in Christchurch
But clearly this is false causality as the Euro and the Aussie the yen and the cAD have all weakened against the USD at exactly the same time.
NZD went down with the quake - of that there is no question in my mind.
Agree with you Peat re AUD, Yen, and CAD - clearly this is false causality
My impression is that overseas traders closely link NZ and Ozzie even if it is illogical and there is no direct co-relationship of the event beyond the name Australian plate ...
If it's bad news for NZ then it's also bad news for AUD...
As Japan is a significant partner of NZ and OZ then ...
Assume CAD as commodity linked currency may have caught the cold from Oz ...
Refer also General Chit Chat for my trading diary notes of my 14 minute NZDUSD trade during the CHCH earthquake...
I was also short EURJPY on 10 March the day before the Japan earthquake - picked up 14.6 pips in 30 minutes and closed the trade in profit...
Just as well I was not still in it the next day ...
WOW Not one Fx Posting here For now Since 18th Feb 2011 - so some six odd weeks.
Please any who want Give me a shout on Skype : zarif786 (UK) will gladly add you in my Skype room And also I have a noce Google room taht if you want you can join and we can have rapport and discussions and trade and ideas views sharig etc.
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=...rum/zaktraders
Looking forward to seeing all those atht are interested in Trading Fx, Oil ( Us and Brent) Gold Silver ES FTSE DAX - to mention an few
rgds
Zorrro ( aka zarif)
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/53...down-arguing-i
an argument for the RBNZ to intervene
Anyone getting thier assets out of NZ?
NZD at record levels against USD, GBP, EUR........
What will happen when the OCR starts to go up.
Bernanke: "The FED believes that a strong and stable dollar is both in the American interests and in the interest of the global economy."
Haha yeah right...... funny way of showing it Mr Bernanke.
86c and climbing.....
Anyone want to guess on where this will end?
I guess someone had to mention parity with the USD! Will it be kiss-of-death like the NZDAUD every time it spikes upwards causing the 'parity' cry to go out, only for the NZD to tank?
NZ dollar surging to parity with US
Currency experts are not ruling out the possibility of a seemingly unstoppable New Zealand dollar reaching parity - or equal value - with the US currency.
I guess if you are planning an overseas trip, now will be the time to buy your usa dollar.