1.04 last defence looking at the depth , if it busts i guess it is a reflection of the margins being under pressure sector wide i believe
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1.04 last defence looking at the depth , if it busts i guess it is a reflection of the margins being under pressure sector wide i believe
You're are worry Maverick
Profit downgrade from $75m to $64.5m
Downgrades usually come in threes many say
Don't be too pessismistic with your next downgrade or two....bearing in mind F18 underlying earnings were $52m
I see your reported profit figure of $50m to $65m is a lot less than F18 .....hmm
Maybe the pros have done the sums as well and thats why the share price is languishing
Someone is manipulating the market...sorry I cannot say any more. Its a little disappointing to see them down at $1.04 again. I think their business model is brilliant.
I think that we will see Oceania stagnant for a while (approximately 6 months). Looking at what they are projected to pay for dividend, I can get better in other shares and ones that are also gaining in capital value (HGH). I don’t plan on selling what I have as I am still making capital gain on this share and I don’t trade, but I do rebalance. I do think this share is worth $1.15 at least, but I don’t control the market
I reckon you have hit the nail on the head as to why the SP is currently substantially undervalued, basically stagnation and some large holders seeing better use for their money elsewhere and probably a disbelief that the SP is back at $1.04 after what was a discounted $1.10 at the time selldown by Maccas. I never thought we would see the price under $1.10 again 6 months ago but it just reinforces my mistrust of the market to get things right, I back myself and therefore continue to hold an XXXOS sized position. PS-My 12 month target price is $1.30 and $2.50 within 3 years.
I like those numbers Couta. I've done as much homework as this mere mortal can do on their reports. As stated above I come up with a FY19 underlying profit of 50-65 ( the large variance due to delivery dates of their new builds as to which FY They will be sold in)
At 60 million that's an EPS of ten, multiplied by a PE of 13.5 ( that's all this grumpy market will afford it currently- i believe it "should" rise to 17- 18 in years to come , given its probable,strong growth trajectory.)
then wallah...... a share price in SIX months of $0.10 x 13.5 = $1.35.
I do think your price of $2.60 in 3 yrs is reasonable but it's dependant on the market raising its PE rating. It surely must by then, especially with MAQ exited and some history building up.
Even if Mr Mkt still won't budge on the PE then the company will still deliver strong underlying growth so it might take five years to get there all by itself. ( but I seriously doubt it will take that long).