The sums are not wrong. Nothing has changed with the company, the problem is that the sellers have simply exhausted the buyers. It`ll turn the other way one day. I`m as calm as a cucumber.
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Just to throw some random numbers into the discussion:
Analyst consensus (4-traders) is $1.18 (in a band from $1.11 to $1.24). Statistical reliability (for what it is worth) - I do track their forecasts for the stocks I hold and watch - and for these they get roughly 60% right. Obviously - the other 40% are wrong. Just for clarification: "Right" means in this context the stock is at forecast below the prediction but reaches or exceeds the prediction at least once at or before the end of the prediction period).
DCF value (ShareClarity): 88 cents; Statistical reliability: only started to track these values (i.e. 2 early to tell), but so far I found less than 10% where the ShareClarity DCF looked sensible compared to the known fundamentals, analyst consensus or SP development;
Graham formula ((8.5 + 2g) * EPS) returns $2.54 per share; Typically though ways too optimistic;
... but if I use the famous bull (or should I say B/S) formula using my random gernerator, than the answer is 42 ... (not sure though, whether this is cents or dollars).
SP can go anywhere as long as there is an imbalance between sellers and buyers ... the old play between fear and greed.
bull (s?) seem to like the fear game ...
... and here are some random support zones:
$1 (at end of day) would be a quite significant support (if it holds ...) just because markets do love round numbers.
98 cents - OCA bounced a long time along along this support level - these things tend to stick in investors memories (and they buy ...).
95 cents used to be the bottom of one of these (a bit) larger troughs - another potential support zone ...
... and below that there is obviously the IPO price (not absolutely sure, I think it was 85 cents).
I'd see the SP as unlikely to drop below the high 90'ies (and certainly not below the IPO price) - but if somebody is playing games, than one never knows where naked fear can lead investors :scared:;
Obviously - all this fearmongering re wages, evil Australian retirement homes and CGT is - just that: plain fear mongering.
Any of above would impact on all of our retirement villages in a similar manner - and so far I don't see them all crashing into the ground.
bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins