Lucky I didn't take your advice and 'back the truck up', tricha, now $1625 and still falling, lower highs and lower lows, and we're all smart enough here to realise what that means.
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Lucky I didn't take your advice and 'back the truck up', tricha, now $1625 and still falling, lower highs and lower lows, and we're all smart enough here to realise what that means.
Yeah, best not to "over" expose yourself to any commodity, metal, or stock in any circumstance which "without" a stop of some sort should see you have some sort of balance or exposure.
With regards to Gold.
Reference the below chart for the banter that follows:
GOLD Daily >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p...q0bck_GOLD.png
To me, Gold is still in a consolidation phase and close to near target of the the down run towards the 200 EMA on the daily which is $1,622.xx
Failing that line then, I would expect a test of the lower part of the range which is set at $1,588.xx which if tested should offer a bounce, but then we should only take things day by day, yet technically is should cause some excitement and new entry and risk flocking into the precious metal.
So simply put, Gold is just doing the run or sweep of the lower part of the range bound support & resistance.
Another important note to mention is that, Gold also seems to be tracking WITH equities which is should not, the safe haven has turned into Convergence rarther than divergence which it should act as for safe haven.
In the meantime, we wait and watch for the above numbers to unfold. We we quite near to the 200ema at present, but I feel a test of the lower range of support will be in order or an eventual event. (IMO)
Hi Pumice,
I have reduced my position in Gold stocks to only small position, so should there be any large down swings continue, then I do not get to feel the force of it as much.
In other words, its easier to buffer yourself and buy in lower and then trade in and out of the moves of stocks.
Must also be-careful though as funds shorting gold will need to cover and rally will come into play, and also into gold stocks hence why we hold a smaller position.
I also have a punch out price of all gold holdings at $1,555.xx as another alarm bell for smaller positions.
The breach comes previous support comes as no surprise, but what is a surprise is how this has been tracking with convergence and not showing any divergence to stocks and other instruments.
Either way, I am fine being 100% cash or 90% invested. The name of the game is survival and not bravery or illusion hunting to convince ourselves of the belief's of others, as its all about what you Believe, Feel, Think and Vision what is really happening to Your Portfolio or value and thus protect that the best way you know how.
Last,
The lack of respect for the testing of major support (at 1,586) is a bit of a alarm also, its like support was never there, but that also is the power of the short side ramming the pile driver down for the sake of greed.
Anyway Pumice, I hope that helps and finger on the pulse~!
Technical update.
Hi folks,
Here is daily and weekly chart of Gold which is last nights chart (EOD) with an added drawn in candle to where the price sites right now added by me for the banter.
Gold daily & weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/h...2ioig_GOLD.png
EMA REFERENCE
13ema - 30ema - 90ema - 200ema
From the Top of the daily gold chart:
The RSI showing its weakness as it tests its previous lows and may hover around this area.
Below that price has broken through the 1,586 major support which is obviously negative.
The EMA structure in the price zone is also starting to gradually breakdown.
The 13ema is has crossed the 30ema, and now seems set to also cross the 90ema.
Should downward pressure remain then the 30ema will also be set to cross the 90ema. (warning bell).
Williams %R is also showing gold as over sold, yet this can stay this way for long periods if need be.
The MACD histogram is negative along with the signal lines crossed on the negative side the centre line.
The weekly chart to the right also has been showing what the daily is saying.
At the top of the chart, an RSI break of 50 signalling weakness, which is a fair warning.
The best thing about the weekly (medium term) is that the EMA alignment is still completely in tack spread a part.
Price does not show the breakdown of support like on the daily yet a few more days this will show up on the weekly.
Williams %R on the weekly shows a continuation downward to which in due time may also show an oversold state.
MACD histogram are also red and the signal lines are negatively crossed moving downward whilst above the centre line.
Over all, gold is taking a serious breather and now also confirms a new downtrend unlike the previous trading range or consolidation area, as Lower Highs and Lower Lows are now very obvious for all to see.
Who can say who, what, where and when, things will happen as I find its best to just take each day for what it is and prepare accordingly to whatever your plan is.
Well there you have it, enough babble from me for now~!
Dont really know Liz, I think we will always see a small bounce back so surely some shorters have covered but some may also remain or hold their position now that the 200ema has been breached and then this will propel matters once the other EMA's fully cross over as well especially when the 50ema (not shown in the chart) cross over the 200ema downward.
Dont know about how well the GB's will sleep, it may depend on how they position themselves with their other investments, but as you know every now and then we all get to take at least one breath of fresh air when it presents itself.
As always, time will tell.
I was reading that some central banks hold gold. Why? If currencies are not backed by gold there is no need for them to hold it.
If central banks did hold gold why would they do so as it would not affect their currencies.
Tha answer may already be earlier on this thread but thats a lot of pages to cover.
That doesn't sound like much of an answer. I suppose it is an alternative to paper money if people stopped believing in the dollar. If Ben keeps printing things could turn to custard. I'm pretty sure if he printed up $1mill for every citizen of the USA it wouldn't solve their problems.
I guess if he keeps printing other countries eventually won't accept US dollars and they will need something else that is recognised as a store of value.After a quick google it appears the world central banks apparently have treaties regarding selling their gold reserves. Sounds like gold keeps a traditional place as a currency if the world goes to hell in a handbasket. International finance is over my head but there should be some constraints on the worlds money supply or else it becomes meaningless. As you say Skol gold has no utility value other than jewelry but its interesting that central bankers still see it as a currency of last resort. harder to dig out of the ground than adding some zeros on a computer.Valuation is tricky though. Is it the bigger fool theory or does it become more valuable in $US every time Ben prints.