For those who think R.E. always goes up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A
Printable View
For those who think R.E. always goes up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A
So in the last few days things have gotten a little interesting
http://www.realestate.co.nz/resident...000/regions/35
If you look you will see a number of Auctions but most list a price or are listed as Negotiation
Not sure if I am reading too much into this but...
But this wasn't the case a few months ago... market turning? becoming a buyers market?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nsurance-curbs
Before the Chinese regulator stepped in this week with measures against the insurance industry aimed at curbing the country’s $1 trillion worth of capital outflows in 2015, hundreds of thousands of mainland Chinese had been flocking to Hong Kong to buy policies using their China-issued UnionPay credit or debit cards.
Using the cards enabled them to get around China’s controls that officially limit citizens from converting no more than $50,000 per year and sending it abroad. By swiping the cards at insurers such as AIA Group Ltd., Prudential Plc, and Manulife Financial Corp. in Hong Kong, mainland residents bought policies denominated in Hong Kong dollars and U.S. dollars -- averaging $50,000 but reaching as much as $1 million or more -- with the equivalent amount of yuan deducted from their bank accounts back home.
The money could then be cashed out and sent anywhere in the world as a clean source of funds from an insurance policy. Such policies, in addition to providing better health care, beneficiary payments and returns than those on the mainland, are also popular because they’re shielded from seizure in the event of bankruptcy in China or criminal proceedings, which have been intensifying under President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. Thus, Hong Kong’s insurance policies have been turned into actual insurance for billions in Chinese cash.
Finally, it is time to avoid property in places such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Major cities in China, major cities in Australia which include Sydney and Auckland etc. I expect one of the biggest drops in property prices especially in Auckland and Sydney. Both Auckland and Sydney house prices are overvalued by more than 40%. They are more vulnerable now. No asset will go straight up continuously for number of years. Any further rise is property prices could lead to another crisis. Still some market players have not learnt lessons. They think this time is different. Some Japanese investors also thought like that in the past.
There are people they can get jobs in Auckland but they cannot afford to rent. Higher rent is slowing down the economic growth as well. Properly investments along with gold are two of the most unproductive investments in the world. These types of investment have bought different types of crisis such as credit crisis and banking crisis in the past. We are going to repeat that by thinking this time is different. Just like stocks and commodities there will be time everybody will try to dump properties in the market. History will repeat in a different manner. It is time to become big bear on Auckland housing market. Easy money will not last for ever.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7594...ice-comparison
Kiwi house prices are the highest in the world compared to incomes, Fitch says
NZ tops world in Fitch house price comparison
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any property, security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
The obvious question is then "how do I short the Auckland property market"? Does anyone or any institutions have any instruments like they do in the states with Securitised mortgages where that is possible here? Would love to be able to make a bet against Auckland housing but what would be the mechanics? (Aside from borrowing a mates house and selling it, promising that you will give him/her their house back at some time in the future :P)
Market indicators are always so compelling but apparently someone forgot the common sense....why would houses prices go down when constant flow of new immigrants into Auckland and lack of housing offset "indicators"? As long as there are more buyers than sellers it isn't going to happen. Overseas investors may slow down but still far too many buyers in the market. I cannot see that changing and that is the major cause of high and rising prices. People buy overvalued things all the time...think about all the luxury brands out there...doesn't stop them buying either because they want them or need them. Also it doesn't make sense to compare Auckland to those other places. Building consents are much more onerous and time consuming in NZ than most other places.
So far Easy credit has supported many assets globally.
China’s stock market collapse is also causing wealth destruction. Hopefully we will not have another global crisis as a result of easy credit. It is better to have some sort of credit control in some countries to cool off their properly market.
As long as we see easy credit, government bailouts and demand from Chinese investors etc, there will be some support for Auckland housing market. However, those are temporarily solutions taken by global policy markets to prevent another great depression. China has a massive credit bubble. It is actually unsustainable and will eventually burst.
We are seeing end of commodity bubble and they are plummeting now. It will follow over valued property market next. The most dangerous bubbles are housing bubbles fuelled by credit booms. The least troublesome are equity bubbles that do not rely on debt. We are closer to another housing burst in overpriced hot property markets which include Auckland and Sydney. It is time to stay away from over valued assets and it is time to identify undervalued assets globally. This is time is not different. It will come in a different manner. New Zealand had some of the worst collapses such as housing market and stock market crash in 1987.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11573823
Auckland housing and the Wall Street blockbuster
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11578353
Fran O'Sullivan: Crackdown threat to property boom
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1601/S00105/auckland-59-less-affordable-than-rest-of-new
Auckland 59% less affordable than rest of New Zealand
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6837...shades-of-1987
The Auckland housing bubble and shades of 1987
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any property, security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.