Originally Posted by
Beagle
BP - This is the method I use and it works well for me so I am sticking with it.
Best guide to the future performance of a company in this order is:-
1. The most recent past
2. Extrapolation of the trend of financial performance over the last 5 years
3. What the company says about its outlook.
Going back further than five years, (when the business model, trading conditions, management and directors could have been very different) and somehow trying to argue this history is just as valid as far more recent history runs the real risk of watering down more valuable more recent information and in my opinion is more than likely to be unhelpful. Yes its more conservative but that's not necessarily helpful.
For me the underlying value is clear and the opportunity for significant future growth in Australia with Glassons is also crystal clear so as Couta1 has said, I have also added more today. I guess it comes down to whether you believe the opportunity in Australia is big or not. I'm definitely a believer.