Going to be a +ve day for the AIR share price I reckon
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Going to be a +ve day for the AIR share price I reckon
I need to spend some more time on this but based on a really quick look at VAH's presentation and financials today for the period ended 31 Dec 2015 I observed :-
1. Still losing money on international flight op's ($30.8m)
2. Tiger Air is barely profitable
3. Their target is to get financial leverage down to 4x - 4.5x by FY17, currently looks quite stretched.
4. $934m equity on total assets of $5,848 so gearing is approx. 84%, a bit less if you offset unrestricted cash against current liabilities like some people do.
5. Unrestricted cash balance as at 31 Dec $544m down from $719m in pcp
6. Current assets as at 31 Dec 2015 $1.5b, current liabilities including unearned flight income of over $800m was $2.36b
7. 89 leased aircraft v 70 owned.
Those are not numbers that impress this bean counter.
As for how much AIR could be on the hook for here to strengthen VAH's balance sheet...having had a quick and dirty look at the balance sheet I'd have to reluctantly now say that the crutch they lent VAH may be just the start of it.
Disc - Still holding one third of original AIR shareholding...clinging on by the skin of my teeth.
Roger...Our stars are starting to align....That's spooky..eh:D
Well having now had a quick look at VAH's stretched balance sheet they will get that opportunity that's for sure. I reckon a sound footing is no more than a 2:1 debt to equity and on that basis VAH would need ~ $A1 billion, (AIR's share $A260m or just under $Kiwi300m)..lent them one crutch, convert that to equity and then make it another. Just as well AIR are enjoying the tailwinds and can afford it.
Caveat - this based on a real quick look. Have to find time to run the ruler over it properly really soon.
Roger - whats AIRs 'unrestricted cash'?
Is it disclosed?
That's not a term I've ever seen AIR use mate.
Hi all, I'm new to these forums - I've been reading and learning for the past few months but this is my first post, so please bear with me if my question is breathtakingly stupid! :blush:
Last November I bought a small number of AIR shares (1000) with the intention to buy and hold (I'm just beginning my journey into investing in shares, so decided to start small and learn the ropes before investing larger amounts). Now my underlying intention is still to buy and hold; but as I see the share price start to climb above the 50 day and 200 day EMA I started wondering - why wouldn't you sell at a higher price, take the profit (making sure that I do actually sell at a profit after brokerage fees are accounted for), and wait until the share price falls again to buy back in?
The risk that I see is that the share price may NOT fall back to what I see as the current "normal" level, and may establish a new higher level - which would kind of scuttle my "buy back in" plans. :scared:
But taking that risk into account, is there some reason that I'm missing (entirely possible) why you wouldn't do this?
Thanks all for your contributions to these forums, I have learned a huge amount over the past few months from simply reading the posts (but still have so much more to learn!)
Why not? Because you may miss out on future SP appreciation.
E.g. from my experience. In September, thinking I was smart (a bad sign with share investing) I sold off my EBO shares at $11.60 for a nice little profit. The SP is now $16.35. That nice little profit would be a nice BIG profit if sold now.
My guess that the SP would retreat and allow a cheaper re-purchase was way off target!
Must be the Easter spirit then eh mate...AIR's cash being the sacrificial lamb to atone for the virgin's sins. Given the season I suppose one must be charitable and say that one hopes VAH's senior exec's are truly worthy of redemption.
You're suggesting its not just some of the older aircraft engines that need an overhaul ?
Any way you slice and dice this VAH just scraping a miserly profit, (just a fraction above break-even) when almost every other airline in the world has booming profits suggests the entire operation really does need a very comprehensive review. They have the intellectual horsepower on the board so one can only hope they do a very thorough job.
Until proven otherwise, In my opinion people can be forgiven for worrying about this as some sort of potential Ansett MK2.