Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week
Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?
One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks
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Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week
Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?
One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks
Yes and last months Op stat's weren't especially flash either. Was catching up on some back programs of Madam Secretary last evening and normally fast forward through the adds but did notice that earlier this month they had an Asia sale and their special was $599 each way to Hong Kong, (this week in yet another sale to Asia where their loads are barely making money at only 72.5%) those same fares are now only $499 each way. I believe this is indicative of the yield pressure as airfares to Vietnam were also only $499 each way...It would appear they are struggling to fill the plane to an acceptable level on some routes.
When Cathay Pacific came out this week and said their yields are under intense pressure that has to be a bit of a concern too, note their average load factor is running at just over 85%, a load factor AIR can only dream about on their Asian routes at present.
Special fares by all airlines have been the norm now for many, many months and consumer fatigue regarding same was a hot topic at the recent international IATA conference as reported on CNBC. AIR's recent load factors despite frequent sales at very attractive prices supports anecdotal evidence that the consumer is generally "getting used too" cheap travel" and doesn't react as strongly to new sale initiatives. By way of example, you can jump on www.grabaseat.co.nz right now and bear in mind this daily special has been up on that website all day and there's hundreds of seats left to LA for only $473 and you can get back for as little as $467. (Thousands left to Hong Kong and Vietnam). These are extraordinary fares for a flight of that distance and yet consumers are not hovering them up with any great appetite like they would have months ago before they were bombarded by cheap fares by all and sundry. It gives the keen observer and inkling of the current yield / demand environment in which AIR operate.
CNBC reported that New aircraft orders at the recent Farnborough biannual airshow were well down on the last show, airlines appear to be becoming more cautious as consumers become more blasé about cheap travel.
Disc: Took some money off the table in regard to AIR this week at $2.24. Still holding some. I think company guidance for 1H FY17 (which will most likely be forthcoming at the annual meeting in just over two months time) may disappoint some investors.
Not too many excellent divvy paying stocks left at a good price that compare with Air if you look around on the current rampant NZX.
Agree with you mate that AIR is a great yield story and all five brokers covering them rate them as a hold and in a nutshell that's also how I see it. I also agree that many stock prices are very stretched and trading on very demanding PE's and by contrast AIR is a good value play.
AKA - you get what you pay for.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-t...lery_id=162976
AA, Hawaian and United all beating earnings last week.
As an aside big negative news about to be released regarding the ineffectiveness of health supplements and fish oil, if one is into health supplement companies.
Air Ann. results due out end off August 2016? Last year results were on 26 August.
AA have also pushed back delivery of their A350's by two years as part of their not too optimistic view of the future, (but others will be glad to get their jets a little earlier).
Analyst valuations are still falling for United, Q3 not looking flash.
Hawaian seems to be the least pessimistic of the three.
But that is the good ole' US of A.
Meanwhile in Asia, ME, Europe things do not look so rosy.
Latin America is terrible.
One way or another most airlines are complaining about increased competition whilst expanding their networks.
Airbus has a 10 year backlog, Boeing over 7 years, capacity is rising faster than demand.
It looks like a tough world out there for the airline industry as it flys itself down into the trough of the cycle.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Investors trying to make a point? 70k, ok so why not make that before the dividend is even declared. I have take whats on the table..big gains can also become big losses when all in.
Don't worry I had a six figure shareholding..I was all in however the point being i have made twenty cents a share each time from the cycle from low twos which stalled in the 2.25 range...happy to book 40 cents a share like a lot of traders/investors since the cliff diving..I already have the equivalent of the dividend in the bank and still have time to buy in again for the actual dividend which given AIR rep will be at the lower expected range...it all depends if it worth waiting for given the share price. Think where are we ex-dividend.
Raz your probably a pro trader, I'm not and have a good income from my job so reducing my tax payable as much as possible by claiming Imps is of more interest to me. PS-Its also a bit different when you hold a large number of shares purchased at a higher price ie in the $2.65-$2.80 range (Averaged down to $2.31 now but you get my drift)
You'd think they'd learn from the last time round. KW was right..airlines generally seem so determined to expand they inevitably fly themselves into a demand hole.
AIR probably manage demand / supply better than most but won't be immune by any means to the effects of the down cycle.
Tourism Booming though. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-v...more-ng-191881
$2.15c new low for this week? Grabbed another 7000 this morning. Come on now pump pump move it on 2.20 here we come. Just waiting for them brokers to stop feeding more sellers in at 2.16:).
I'm still looking to get some more but just waiting to see if this is the bottom of this dip. Really want to see a new higher low set in the grand scheme of things and hope this is it and price will climb again. Probably going to be in it for the longer term. I know competition is the big talk of the moment and yes it will impact but I think tourism will offset this quite a bit. Cautious with the weakness it has shown but still a believer.