Goodness gracious me - SUM share price continues to tumble ..... now below $5
If a sector thing probably pointing to an impending market collapse - even my old mate Jarrod mentioned a 30% correction for the S&P5000 this morning
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Goodness gracious me - SUM share price continues to tumble ..... now below $5
If a sector thing probably pointing to an impending market collapse - even my old mate Jarrod mentioned a 30% correction for the S&P5000 this morning
I am not surprised... cracks appear to be showing in resales which were nearly 10% lower than this quarter last year (and yet they had more stock to sell compared to this time last year I would have thought?)
Also, do they usually break out how much resale stock is unsold? (21/(71+21) = 22.8%) It would seem nearly 1 in 5 units up for resale is sitting empty... I don't think this is to flash (or efficient)...
(am I reading reading the resales wrong? YTD16 figure, which is just 5, or around 2.5% more, than the YTD15 figure, also seems extremely poor for a 'growth company')
It would seem SUM is increasingly reliant on 'ever increasing' building activities, and the sales (and debt) this incurs.
Look forward to any discussion/clarification
Lets take a look at Retirement Sector Performance since SUM hit its all time high on September 9 2016:
Retirement Village / September 9 Prices / Current Price (time) / Change
SUM / 5.60 / 4.97 (2:30) / - 11.25%
RYM / 9.68 / 9.18 (2:29) / - 5.17%
MET / 6.40 / 5.98 (2:30) / - 6.56%
ARV / 1.19 / 1.15 (2:29) / - 3.34%
hmm... you're right, it is certainly not SUM... but it is leading the losses by a considerable margin... (due to disappointing 3Q16 metrics?)
t_j - you having one of beat up SUM days to makr ARV look good?
SUM can only resell units when people move out (generally dying I think). So resales always limited by this factor.
SUM have 2,600 units and if resales this year are say 260 that's only 10% turnover. Bugger, to achieve 'growth' as you put it we need to up that mortality rate somehow.
Having only 21 units for resale seems pretty good to me. Less than a months 'stock' (suggests less than 30 days to sell) seems efficient, considering they probably do a bit of redecorating during the changeover period
Above all don't forget that even the 2,350 units that remain occupied over the year have all gone up in value (possibly 10% plus this year). Book Value up = SUM worth more = increased share price
You have a good point that the date may not have been 'ideal', but I believe this was around where MET and RYM were trading at or near their high's as well so I thought it was a reasonable comparison, but clearly other dates can be used.
You raise some good points further above which has helped my understanding, thank you.
Would it be possible to come up with some sort of idea when a 'new' unit, eventually becomes a 'resale' unit? (like the average time this would take)
I think it would be interesting to see if the stock available for resale is increasing faster than resales...not just for SUM
Also, do you know if they usually break out how much stock they haven't sold (like they did recently)?
t_j. Every now and again they throw in the number of units awaiting resales
This time last year it was 37
This year bloody low eh
t_j
Annual turnover of around 10% for independent living units seeems about the industry norm
Resale margins make for an interesting study. Tenure times (esp for new units) has a large bearing on outcomes.
Why don't you get your mates down at Forbar to give you a ope of their reports on SUM or RYM. Have a look at the assumptions they make about such things
You need to understand all this so IF that Arvida ever gets momentum you will be well prepared.