talk around town says less than 50% chance of Apollo deal going ahead
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talk around town says less than 50% chance of Apollo deal going ahead
if you read the ACCC preliminary issues release this morning the takeover look dead in the water to me...probably less than 10% chance they can change the ACCC's mind. This was always the risk as the THL-Apollo deal was a great one for THL....almost a replay of the KEA takeover post 2011 RWC in NZ but on a bigger scale.
Market update and FY22 guidance - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
thl expects that its statutory net loss after tax for FY22 will be in the range of $2M to $4M, with the underlying net loss after tax expected to be in the range of $4.7M to $6.7M. The statutory result will include a number of one-off items:
Expected statutory net loss after tax: $2M - $4M
Gain on sale of Mighway and ShareACamper: $6.2M
Gain on sale of shares in Roadpass Digital: $1.6M
Expected FY22 transaction costs relating to the proposed merger with Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL): $5.1M
Expected underlying net loss after tax: $4.7M - 6.7M
thl share price sure has plummeted since updated guidance last month
market thinking merger a no go as well?
keep on watch list ......maybe one day it might be come right but its been a bit of a impending train wreck for yonks and still can't understand the excitement that drove the share price way over 6 bucks a few years ago .... never worth that even allowing for the much vaunted global partnerships
thl Annual Results FY22 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
Summary:
•Significant improvement on the prior corresponding period (pcp), with underlying net loss after tax of $5.4M, improved by $8.9M. Statutory net loss after tax of $2.1M, improved on the pcp by $12.4M.(1)
•Total revenue of $345.8M, down 4% on the pcp, due to reduced rental revenue (lockdown impacts), with sale of goods revenue broadly in line with the pcp.
•Record vehicle sales margins were achieved in all countries, with average gain on sale of fleet of approximately $29k per vehicle, up 137% on the pcp.
•Net debt at 30 June 2022 was $58.5M, providing approximately $200M of headroom in debt facilities to fund fleet growth.(2)
•No dividend declared for FY22 and a dividend unlikely for FY23.
•thl currently expects that net profit after tax in FY23 on a standalone basis will be within the current range of analyst expectations, being between $17.0M to $30.2M.
The trading halt has been put in place as THL is expecting to receive, during
the course of the day, the New Zealand Commerce Commission's decision on its
clearance application in respect of the proposed merger with Apollo Tourism &
Leisure Limited.
Any thoughts ?
Today’s announcement of the resignation of CITIC appointed director Guorong Qian notes that the CITIC Capital International Tourism Fund’s term has expired and the THL shares held are to be distributed in specie to the underlying individual limited partnerships.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399478
According to the 2022 THL annual report, CITIC held 18.26% of THL (via HB Holdings Ltd). Does this restructure mean that there is 26.8m THL shares looking for a new home?
Assuming the Apollo merger proceeds, I think there are a number of Australian retail ATL shareholders that will also want to sell due to the perceived undesirability of holding shares in a NZ company. Some short term pain but maybe a buying opportunity.
I was in Queenstown this last weekend and did note a significant number of Maui and Britz camper vans on the road, so signs of some green shoots on the tourism recovery front.
MEDIA | NZX RELEASE
TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
THL LIFTS FY23 PROFIT GUIDANCE
thl today provides an update on its expectations for the financial year
ending 30 June 2023 (FY23).
thl's current expectation is that net profit after tax (on a standalone
basis) in FY23 will be above $30 million.* This guidance includes the impact
of an estimated $3.5 million in Apollo-related transaction costs in FY23.
Earlier guidance provided by thl in August 2022 was that net profit in FY23
was expected to be between $17.0M and $30.2M, which aligned with the range of
analyst forecasts at that time.
Should move towards $4 - very good upgrade and very strong booking levels. This could be paying at 25c dividend in fy24. Hopefully we are at the beginning of an upgrade cycle.