When it breaks through that 137 mark the share price will just take off
You will be duly rewarded for you patience (and frustration)
Funny gap to HBL not that great now eh
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Looking like its got a pretty shiny coat, could be a show dog candidate :D
Disc: Don't own, can't be everywhere, prefer SUM and OCA.
looking pretty strong now...up 3c for the day. That suddenly make sit the 2nd largest in my portfolio, and has just crossed above the "market return" line for me...very happy that there seems to be bit of reward after a long 18 months.
Forsyth buying even more of ARV today - brought over 3m shares and now own over 8%.
Not too surprising, probably saw MET's result and realized just how cheap ARV is... no bigly NPAT drops here, no bigly (and probably inaccurate - in a negative way) remedial costs, no bigly catch up in the increasingly important care offering, just sustainable growth + reasonable dividend yield - no wonder ARV is a boring dog.
The resident shareholders (of which there are many) and holders in general will be happy with the Q1 dividend announced today - up over 13% on Q1 last year, despite a lower payout ratio.
ARV almost as boring as RYM, one of many similar qualities ARV has to ARV - but opposites on the valuation side of things.
Last week you could buy ARV for $1.34 or cheaper all day long, since then they've ex-divi and handed out a 1.1 cent dividend (after tax). Today someone can`t get enough at $1.35..... I just don`t get this game sometimes.
ARV cheap, no no. Outstanding value, yes. ha ha :)
On a slightly serious note though, being stuck with a tag of being a cheap share (as opposed to excellent value), probably doesn't help the share narrative.
There may be an element of shares (like many purchases) being affected by perception. People just don't have time to make really informed choices, hence the over priced rubbish (referring generally to consumer goods, cars etc) some people buy when there are clearly better value alternatives.
True enough and ARV may be one of those. If the business is good then the value will eventually come through.
I couldn't see Warren Buffet buying SUM but he might see ARV as representing good value.
OCA have had a bit of SP surge recently. I already have a small holding (4% of my share portfolio) in OCA, a larger holding in SUM but nothing invested in ARV. I would like to invest more in one of ARV or OCA but cannot decide between the two. My current preference is to buy a similar size holding in ARV as my holding in OCA.
From ANZ secs:
ARV sp 1.35 nta 1.23 div yield 3.7% p/e 8.76
OCA sp 1.22 nta 0.88 div yield 3.2% p/e 9.6
Is ARV now better value than OCA. Or has OCA got better growth prospects?
* I would be a long term investor (at least 5+yrs)
For me, oca. I sold out of oca a while ago because i wasn't happy with the percentage of low price vs premium units, which i believe don't make financial sense. This has now been fixed. The only thing i don't like about oca is the risk of wage increases, which i believe are better covered if by SUM.
I think that oca are a good buy, but no longer a bargain. Im not that excited about the arv growth story. But then ive not got up to date research on arv, so maybe im wrong.
I think wage increases are relected in the maximum contribution (payable either by the Health Board or by the resident) within each Health Board. There was a 9.9% increase in that amount in July 2017 to reflect the pay equity settlement.
The government will need to set the level so that providers will want to provide accommodation. I think that there will come a point when ORA purchasers can no longer be tapped to provide any cross-subsidy to care beds.
The max contribution amounts for Manukau City area in Counties Manukau:
$1,112.30 2018
$1,051.12 2017
$ 959.84 2016
So there was a 15.9% increase in two years (when in the same period there was a 3.2% increase in the CPI)
The OCA village of Elmwood in Manukau for example have developed vacant land, in the last few years, and provided more ORA villas and rooms and their latest developments have been top range villas (I think still cheaper than the closest SUM village villas).
That's right, and thanks for the good info there. What bothers me is that the party goes up then they have to ask for more from the health board. What if the health board says no? Possible under a govt that spends too much, has no reserve and promises lots.
Probably oca are a safe bet, but I get worried about such things.
I'm in pretty much the same boat as you Bjauck except that I have some ARV along with SUM and am looking at buying some OCA now. ARV's numbers look good to me though OCA have positives as well, I decided having some of both was the best solution for now.