Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianAussie
zs_cecil - Management doens't need $50M to roll out to more McDonald's stores - PLX is profitable. They've stated this is to pursue growth/acquisitions. As for your point about SuperIndo if you wait for the cash to flow in it could be 10years before PLX has their software in all of Ahold Delhaize's (they "own" SuperIndo) supermarkets. Moving faster blocks competitors from entering the market.
Brain - I completely agree; however, some form of valuation has to be done. I've done both a DCF and a comparables and they both look great.
forest - I think you need to re-read my comment. You can have your cake and eat it too but only if PLX lists on the ASX. You're assuming NZ holders don't get to participate in the SPP/float. My understanding is management has said they will. My opinion is that if it lists on the ASX it will re-rate much higher than it's currently trading meaning LESS shares will be issued, resulting in LESS dilution. Again, I've looked at over 250 ASX small and micro caps and I have never seen a company with such a strong history of positively trending cashflow, revenue growth, ROIC, ROE, profit etc etc - I don't see them because they don't stay small caps on the ASX. Dalziel and Herbison have really turned this company around since the departure of Scott Bradley.
forest, if you're worried about a capital raise I suggest looking into ASX:NVX. They needed to raise $58.28M so they did a prorata 1:1 entitlement offer at $0.29 on May 29th. The share price at the time was $0.435. Keep in mind this was an ENTITLEMENT offer not a SPP (there's a big difference). I can't comment on how PLX is going to structure theirs; however, it would not surprise me if it's not a similar format given they have a specific $ they are aiming to raise.
Getty - With regards to my DCF see below. I'm no expert in DCFs so please take with a grain of salt; however, these are in line with my ASX comparables valuation. $4.38 is based on a 45% revenue growth over the next 5 years and is post raising $50M (ie post dilution). Base case (25% growth) is $2.02, Bull case (55% growth) is $6.08.
I'm going to stop commenting as I don't want to give the impression I'm ramping. But please don't follow along the NZSA without coming to your own conclusion based on the facts.
Assumptions Tax Rate 27.5% Discount Rate 12% Perpetual Growth Rate 4% EV/EBITDA Mulltiple 8.0x Transaction Date 22/08/2020 Fiscal Year End 31/03/2021 Current Price 1.41 Shares Outstanding 140,380,000 Capital raised from ASX IPO 50,000,000 Investment Bank IPO Fee 2.00% Shares issued for ASX IPO 35460992.91 Shares Outstanding Post IPO 175,840,993 Discounted Cash Flow Entry 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Exit Terminal Value Date 22/08/2020 31/03/2021 31/03/2022 31/03/2023 31/03/2024 31/03/2025 31/03/2026 31/03/2026 EV/EBITDA 996,158 Time periods 1 2 3 4 5 6 Perp. Growth 1,143,655 Year frac 0.61 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Average 1,069,906 EBIT 4,643 25,785 37,837 55,435 81,233 118,949 Less: Cash Taxes 1277 7091 10405 15244 22339 32711 NOPAT 3,366 18,694 27,432 40,190 58,894 86,238 Plus: D&A 930 1,249 1,998 2,936 4,107 5,571 EBITDA 5,573 27,034 39,835 58,370 85,340 124,520 Less: Capex 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Less: Changes in NWC 5,444 (11,932) 930 1,349 1,955 2,835 Unlevered FCFF (2,148) 30,875 27,500 40,777 60,046 87,973 1,069,906 Transaction FCFF 0 (1,307) 30,875 27,500 40,777 60,046 87,973 1,069,906 IRR FCFF (197,922,219) (1,307) 30,875 27,500 40,777 60,046 87,973 1,069,906 Intrinsic Value Market Value Rate of Return Enterprise Value 720,948,122 Market Cap 197935800 Current Price $1.41 Plus: Cash 13,581 Plus: Debt 0 Target Price $5.14 Less: Debt 0 Less: Cash 13,581 TP Upside 264.24% Equity Value 720,961,703 Enterprise Value 197,922,219 IRR -51% Equity Value/Share $5.14 Equity Value/Share 1.41 Post ASX IPO Equity Value 769,961,703 Equity Value/Share $4.38
I stopped at 45% revenue growth over 5 years. They only did about 1/3 of that in the last quarter.
TSK - TASK Group Holdings
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31-08-2020, 08:12 AMCobberQuote:
Originally Posted by CanadianAussie
I stopped at 45% revenue growth over 5 years. They only did about 1/3 of that in the last quarter. -
31-08-2020, 08:22 AMmfdI'm not too surprised that growth slowed down in a quarter covering the worst of the Covid lockdowns, given the job of the company is to get people to physical stores. We know they are aiming for their compensation to be more transaction based, and it's reasonable to assume transactions were lower than normal that month.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobber
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31-08-2020, 08:55 AMGetty
CanadianAussie,
Please do not feel inhibited about posting what you like on here.
In particular, spread sheet type posts like yours.
There are some very good forensic accountants on here who will gladly run their stethoscope over it, and provide insightful analysis.
Everyone benefits, including you.
The worst thing that can happen, is that uninterested people wont read a post.
Dr JPG.
Public Health Safety Warning.
Due to Covid, if you're COUGHIN', prepare your COFFIN, ready to carry you OFF IN.
BY Order
Jacinda. -
31-08-2020, 09:03 AMCobberSo that means if they are to make 45% growth for year 1, they are going to need to do a couple of quarters at 60% growth. Based on second waves of covid globally.... it isn't going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mfd
I think CanadianAussie did a great chart, but they also said they were bullish.
What does that chart look like at 20% growth for 5 years?
If you don't want to be seen to be ramping the stock, you did need to have a worst vs best case scenario's. -
31-08-2020, 09:09 AMChuckles
I hold a good parcel of PLX in the portfolio and support the listing on the ASX. Good for the SP and the growth of the company.
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31-08-2020, 09:12 AMyuj4
This might be my first post on this forum and I have always been reading post with the past 7 years and learnt a lot from people here like balance, leftfield etc.
List on ASX helps to speed up the growth strategy and it brings more attention. it also helps to attract more institution and fund manager's support and build solid foundation for plexure. (I will definitely support $50 million plexure ASX pre-IPO)
I have been doing lots of research for similar companies like plexure such as OLO (targeting small restaurants and hotels) and toast in the states. (OLO recently partnered with google is also looking for pre-IPO this year valuing the company for 1 billion US dollars)
OLO is targeting 40 times revenue for its pre-IPO last time I did research.
If you look into those two companies and you found their targeting customers are restaurants but not QSR or Groceries where plexure has more customer concentration but darn good customers.
Comparing with other growth companies, plexure is still cheap, and fewer competitors in QSR sector. Plexure is trying to crack into the grocery mobile marketing field similar fundamental how it got Mccas onboard. Ahold Delhaize might be the target behind the scene for plexure not super indo if anyone is interested in reading below.
At the end of the day, investing is about having faith in the company and I hope the ASX can come true to bring more sophisticated investors on board.
Established in 1997, Super Indo has over 170 stores located across Indonesia, Super Indo is majority owned by Ahold Delhaize, which has a 51 per cent stake in the company. Ahold Delhaize is one of the world’s largest grocery retailers and a global leader in e-commerce. It operates more than 6,500 stores across the United States, Europe and Indonesia, and serves more than 50 million shoppers each week. -
31-08-2020, 09:57 AMChucklesQuote:
Originally Posted by yuj4
Completely agree with you Yuj4. PLX looks good, reads good and makes up part of my speculative group in the portfolio. Completely overlooked ABA once I had sold at $3.43, those that bought and held after March will be having a good day :) -
31-08-2020, 11:47 AMBrainI totally agree with that John Paul Getty. It is great that CanadianAussie Has posted his views on Plexure. Good to see some optimism andQuote:
Originally Posted by Getty
forces me to give some more thought to the share. -
01-09-2020, 08:51 AMHello123
Lots of sellers unloading it seems market sentiment for this weeks presentation is quite weak, Confidence low in what will be revealed?
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01-09-2020, 09:17 AMCamNZQuote:
Originally Posted by Hello123
Just noticed Plexure updated their website. Lots of new information on there if you guys haven't taken a look at it yet!