A slight difference in the payroll
US sees job cuts as economy cools
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image...ckplant203.jpg Jobs have been cut in many industries
The US has seen the first decline in employment since August 2003, providing fresh evidence that the US economy could be entering a recession.
Employers cut 17,000 jobs from their payrolls in January, Labor Department figures showed. Economists had been expecting a rise of 80,000.
The US economy has slowed sharply in recent months as a housing market slump has dented consumer spending.
US interest rates have been cut twice in nine days to boost growth.
"Serious signs"
In a speech in Kansas on Friday, President George Bush acknowledged that the US economy was going through a rough patch and urged lawmakers in Washington to pass an economic stimulus package.
"Inflation's low. Productivity's high, but there are certainly some troubling signs, serious signs that the economy is weakening and that we've got to do something about it," Mr Bush said.
US Congress and the Bush Administration have agreed an economic stimulus package which would add $150bn in tax rebates.
The measure has already been passed by the House of Representatives but is still awaiting Senate approval.
Recession mode
The job losses were across all sectors of the economy including manufacturing and professional services.
"The economy is in recession mode," said Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% from 5% in December, a two-year high, but overall the number of people in the labour force declined.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/...t_quote_rb.gif We should expect to see more bad news on the labour market http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/...d_quote_rb.gif
Nigel Gault, Global Insight
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 3% from 3.5% on Wednesday.
It followed an emergency unscheduled cut last week, when the Fed slashed the cost of borrowing by the largest amount in 25 years to prevent the economy from slowing further. "We should expect to see more bad news on the labour market, at least through the middle of the year, before the heavy doses of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to kick in," said Nigel Gault, an economist at Global Insight.
Have u done the sums yet. My calculator can not do the numbers
My personal view on this recession is the price of oil will be the key to the severity of it all.
Do you think twice now, when you fill your car up about where you are going to go.:confused: All that gas money that could has been spent on something else :(
How much oil does the US import ?????????????????
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I'm guessing at 15,000,000 barrels a day x it by $30 = $450,000,000
Try it again at $60 a barrel = $900,000,000
Try it again at $90 a barrel = $1,350,000,000
Try it at $150 a barrel = $2,250,000,000
The big picture is quite scary.
calculator hasnt enough noughts
They are big scary numbers.About two and a half years ago i found that my calculator could no longer compute various calculations because it wouldnt hold enough noughts.Think the rate of inflation was 1 to 3% world wide and generally still is(various governments world wide have manipulated the way they calculate cpi) .In effect the true measure of inflation is in oil gold property and other tangabiles and the way they have increased in price reflects governments' failure with their jiggery pokery and the debasement of peoples wealth(and propensity to save)by using fiat currencies and artificially low interest rates.So my guess would have been in the past a hua of a recession(prior to the emergence of the BRIC economies it would be a certainty)what is happening at the moment is the US fed throwing a lot more US pesos on the inflation fire in an attempt to stave off recession.I think the west has largely got away with this illusion in the past because of the cheap "stuff" coming out of China,(somewhat deflationary?apparently so .Allowing more disposable income to go into sharemarkets and housing,consumption etc) cheap money,easy credit and a wiiling consumer base.,The Chinese now are starting to export inflation and with Brazil Russia India China now wanting(needing) oil iron base metals and other tangabiles to continue into their capitalist culture these may continue upwards in price.Anyway i am even starting to bore myself with this .The "price of oil " may be the key to the severity of it but may more so be a measure of past (and possibly future) inflation and the price of it could be a direct indicator of recession or/and inflation.
postive e-mail from wise owl
Are we heading for a bear market?
The recent falls we have witnessed in our market have been the biggest since October 1987. This has left many investors wondering if the share market is the best place for their money.
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Take a look at the global economy.
The latest data shows that China and India are growing by 11.2% and 8.9%, respectively. The World Bank predicts China will grow by 9.6% this year.
The world economy is still in expansion phase with above average growth.
Australia’s resources are still in high demand.
Unemployment is at a record low of 4.4% in Australia with companies still hiring.
Consumer confidence is high.
Businesses are flush with cash after years of record profits.
When inflation is taken into account, global commodity prices are coming off 200 year lows.
Despite the subprime mortgage mess and slowing US growth, our most important export partner, China, is continuing to expand with the recent GDP data showing 11.2% annualised growth over the December quarter. A slowing US economy will no doubt affect China but not as much as some people might think. In fact, a minor slowdown in China would be a welcome change for policymakers as it would cool down inflationary pressures. Having taken into account the trade effects of a US and European slow down, the World Bank estimates that China should still grow at a healthy 9.6% clip this year.
The scale of industrialisation and urbanisation in China is unprecedented. This will keep our mining sector ticking along and gives credibility to the “stronger for longer” case. One just needs to travel to Perth to see the impact the mining boom is continuing to have. The growth in China and India should provide Australia with an element of insulation from a US slowdown. Most of China and India’s need for our commodities is for domestic use, a fraction of which is used for the production of US exports.
The last commodities boom, which started in the 1970s, lasted for 15 years and was a result of the industrialisation of Japan which had just 2% of the world’s population. The current boom is being led by the industrialisation and economic growth of China and India. Combined, these two countries have 36% of the world’s population. With more than a third of the world’s population enjoying elevated economic growth, the commodities boom will continue for many years to come.
Combine this with real commodity prices close to inflation adjusted 200 year lows, and you have a very bullish long term macroeconomic picture on your hands.
The worst may already be over
Market falls of more than 20% are often an indication the market is close to rock bottom. Recent history suggests that when a market falls, the bulk of the sell-off occurs early as people try to realise any gains they still have. Since 1991 there have been four 20%+ falls and every one of them was a precursor to strong gains. The January 22 market fall was the fifth time this has occurred, and hindsight may soon show us it was indeed yet another good buying opportunity.
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