AFC shareprice has now broken through resistance at 45c. Today's close 48c.
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AFC shareprice has now broken through resistance at 45c. Today's close 48c.
Thanks for bringing this to attention Alban !
I read thru the fine work you and pajama posted here and went through the statements on AFC's website last month and picked up a few @42c.
I got a few too @.42 and still want to double up if it comes back.
Thanks for you excellant work Alban!
Is it significant on such small volume???? 3,500 shares
Havn't seen the buy/sell sides and how they stack up
Cheers skinny and clearasmud. :)
CAM, thanks for giving me the opportunity to clarify my brief statement.
In its 10 month uptrend AFC had not previously managed a close above 45c. On Thursday AFC broke through 45c to close at 45.5c on good volume (for AFC). On Friday it advanced further to 48c on small volume.
Placing this in context, although the AFC price had closed at 45c on five previous occasions in recent months, observers of the price action will have noted that a generous supply of shares always became available at or around 45c. A few days ago, however, I noted that all sellers below 50c took their shares off the market in the space of one day. You may draw whatever conclusions you wish to from this.
Gradually, one or two smaller-scale sellers reappeared at around 45c but they have now been taken out.
AFC is in a confirmed uptrend and has closed for two days in a row above a formerly very strong resistance level. I believe AFC's fundamentals, as outlined in the previous pages, will carry it to significantly higher prices within an achievable timeframe for all but the most impatient of investors. I'm happy to enjoy the ride.
Readers are reminded to do their own research before risking their shirts investing in common stocks.
Good to see the price settling firmly above the old resistance level. :) On a variety of forward outlooks, I'm currently working on the basis that the AFC price in one year's time will be somewhere between 65 cps and 75 cps.
Unaudited results for the 6 months to June 2004 were released today.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Alban
FY June 2003 profit of $1.33 million multiplied by 1.5325 gives a FY2004 estimate of $2.04 million or 5.4 cps (37.5 mill shares) or 5.2 cps (39.2 mill shares).
New lending $209 million, up 67%
Total revenue $11.4 million, up 63%
Full year profit will be in excess of $2 million. So it looks as if profit will be at the top end of our expecations rather than at the more conservative end.
As we expected, because of the high existing equity, the MD, Martin Kane states that they are confident of accomodating further growth without any significant rises in existing overheads.
Hi Alban,
First of all thank you for bringing AFC to our attention. I bought a sizable stake in April at 44.5 cents and todays unaudited results want me to buy more. I love the growth story with sound management. Without looking to hard, do you know what the dividend forecast is for this year and if they finally implemented a dividend reinvestment plan?
Well done Alban!
Your forecast in the post 11/04 looks spot on, i.e. EPS of around 5.2c. This implies a p/e of only around 9.5 on todays share price....now that AFC seem to have delivered the goods for the 2nd half-year we should see a decent multiple expansion over the next few weeks [:p]
Well done Alban on your projected profit estimate (and for identifying AFC in first instance).
It would seem their earnings are around 60% in first half (up to 31/12) and 40% in second half (up to 30/6), at least this seems to be the ratio for last couple of years.
The current price of around 50 (although this may well track up following yesterdays annoucement) places the coy on an undemanding PE of 9.8 (using my shares of 39.2m) [ie 2m/39.2m=5.1 and 50/5.1=9.8] as I see it.
The dividend policy as per their intial listing documentation was 60% of earnings so this may suggest 3cps for this year. This is 6% net (to us NZ holders) or 8.5% gross for our Australian friends.
Since listing AFC has grown signficantly and probaly justifies a higher PE ratio than 10.
FY 30/06/02 profit was 1.0m (2.7cps) [5.4m sales]
FY 30/06/03 profit was 1.3m (3.4cps) [7.0]
FY 30/06/04 profit est 2.0m (5.1cps) [11.4]
As I see it the EPS growth has been some 45% between 2003 and 2004 years. Between 2002 and 2003 was 30%. The short time frames invloved mean care is required in interpreting the figures but none the less this is not the growth path of your traditional low PE company.
It should be noted the EPS for 2002 year shows as some 6.5cps in annual accounts because weighted average shares on issue was 16.0m. This is my view is nonsense and I have restated EPS accordingly; the weighted avge shares number is confused by the IPO during 2002 year and to use this number is meaningless in my view. [ie as the shares were issued part way during year only part of shares are counted as - typical accounting standards confusion for shareholders]
Of course when you are starting from a low base it is much easier to grow than when you are a large business already.
Another point of some interest is the ratio of NPAT to Sales. This has ranged from 11-19% from 2001-2004 and has averaged approx 17% for last 3yrs. This is a very sound ratio which they have done well to maintain as the sales increased from 5.4m to 11.4m. Normally as revenue (and costs) grow it becomes harder to maintian the profit/sales ratio but AFC have pretty much managed this. A credible acheivement in my experience.
I think the company could quite easily increase the dividend payout ratio from 60% to say 70% perhaps more with out much trouble. The core business does not need constant reinvestment as many do which is a positive re potential free cash flow.
The growth in revenue of 63% is going to be hard to repeat going forward. If though we take a conserative approach of say 30% growth into 2005 year [which on past performance looks possible] then sales could be $15m for 2005 [$11.4 x 1.30]. If we further assume they can maintain the 17% NPAT/Sales ratio [which will get harder for them to hold] a 2005 profit of $2.550m is possible. This would be 6.5cps which using a PE of 10 suggests value of 65c. I think if they achive these sort of numbers then a PE of say 15 would be justified and perhaps 97c possible.
These are all just my thoughts and obviously there are a lot of assumptions. This time next year we will see if I can get these things as accurate as Alban.