On track - and then some!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Yankiwi
With the NZSX over 3100 today, it must be far less than 19% PA rise needed now.
Yes, an average of only 15.7% is all it will take now. As time passes, it gets easier and easier.
I know that things look really good right now and I don't want to crush your ebullient youthful spirits, but you guys do know all about reversion to the mean - don't you?
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX813.gif
Deja vu - all over again.
To me, that chart was quite intriguing and I am surprised and disappointed at the absence of any feedback. No comments, no scepticism, no approval, no abuse, no surprise, no disagreement, no thanks, no argument, no discussion, no sarcasm, no humour.... nothing. And yet, that post has been read by hundreds of people. I wonder why I bother!
Maybe the total lack of interest is because this involves an Index rather than a stock.
Maybe I didn't make my point clearly enough.
Maybe no-one even noticed the pale yellow lines - let alone appreciated their import.
Maybe readers here are not interested in the "big picture".
I feel that this topic is worth one last shot before I give up, so starting again..... "Deja vu" is a feeling that one has witnessed a new situation previously, as though an event has already happened before, in the recent past. Quite by accident I stumbled across the fact that the current market uptrend bears a striking resemblance to that of 5 years ago. I have marked earlier market reversal levels and almost without exception these are repeated in the current market with astonishing precision. Isn't that Spooky, Possums? This even extends to minor points as marked by small arrows and dotted lines. The only exception that I can see is marked by light blue arrows, where the resistance/support didn't make it all the way across. I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke).
This is all a bit unsettling for me. You see, I have never believed that Support and Resistance levels were very useful concepts when applied to Indices. I utilise Support and Resistance levels extensively with stocks but have never been able to conceive of a rationale that would apply to composite entities such as Indices.
Now, here are the big questions :-
(1) Can this extraordinary state of affairs continue?
(2) Will the market again reverse at 3240?
(3) Can we then expect a repeat 10% (330 point) correction?
(4) Will the market again find Support at 2900? (A nice round figure)
(5) At this stage of my life, can I embrace the Dark Side?
(6) Does anyone care?
I suspect the answer may be NO to all.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX50sr109.gif