A decent correction going on here with no news othe than the ASX listing. Also very quiet on the BUY side - anyone care to elaborate? I thought people would be thinking about topping up at these levels?? Or maybe waiting for a confirmed support?
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A decent correction going on here with no news othe than the ASX listing. Also very quiet on the BUY side - anyone care to elaborate? I thought people would be thinking about topping up at these levels?? Or maybe waiting for a confirmed support?
PE still around 20. Still a tad high for my liking.
Be careful with what you read on the internet
The EPS quoted most places is last years, and that only had one month of Symbion in it
With full year of Symbion EBOS should achieve NPAT of ~$90m this year so real PE is about 13 to 14 at the moment
Maybe still a bit high? No idea
For as long as I can remember,[and I have a long memory],EBO have traded between a PE of 13 and 16.
I am surprised the Australian listing has not seen EBO take off.
Mark Waller did say at the AGM a lot of Australian intos wanted forward projections,which EBO would not give.
The Symbion acquisition is a fantastic buy,and I expect to see EBO share price at $20.Just don't know whether it can happen in under three years,or not?!
I like EBOS - well run company, solid performer year after year. But right now, the depth is looking ugly and there's general negative sentiment. I'll be looking to buy a few once the down trend (which has been going now for three months) reverses.
Nigel,I think you are right to wait until the trend favours buying.
Over a good number of years I have noted EBO share price seems to do its own thing.Don't know why, but it does.Whenever I have got really nervous and thought something must be really wrong,the down trend seems to stop and up it goes again.Can be a bit of a concern when every thing except EBO is going up.
per consensus estimates at a shareprice of 9.00 pe is about 14.5x.
I imagine the continued AUD weakness means actual results will be lower, therefore EBOS still looks to be on 16 or 17x.
I want to do more research on this stock and think it could be a great long term investment. My concern about buying now is - if results disappoint in a few months, (likely given AUD), will this send the stock lower? On one hand I would think the market realises this already, but on the other I am surprised at the stupidity of the market on a regular basis.
H1 NPAT of $48m is in the bank ... so no half year surprises
Down another 3% today to 870
Moosie cheeky bid at 850 filled tomorrow ........might regret it
Maybe punters finally realised that nz profits fell in h2 for 2012 year .....and maybe that trend continuing this year.
H1npat in the bank .....some concern over h2 ....I don't know but not flavour of the month is it
Have there been any trades on tASX yet?
Same I thought as well, wrong thread. Bit overvalued I think?
I see Milford have sold 575,000 ebo shares.
Maybe to pay for their MGL shares.?!
I dare not pass judgement.!!! lol.
Disc hold EBO,
don't hold MGL.
EBOS leads NZ market with first Investor Relations App
Results better be good.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: EBO and a Nexus7 (Android)
Not too worried about the results being good.
Just want to hear how progress is going.
The results will come,either sooner or later.[And they will be fantastic!]
WOW. WOW AND WOW
Had to say it three times Percy because u need a certain number if words to post
ON TRACK TO THE 100 MIL PROFIT METHINKS
They are delighted.I am excited.!
Absolutely incredible result.
Succession very clever with Patrick Davies taking over from Mark Waller,and Waller taking over from Rick Christie.
On track to $20 a share.!!
All against a strong NZ dollar.
And wait there's more;Increased divie on increased number of shares !!!
Also I will miss Dennis Doherty, CFO, who was always helpful with any questions I had.
Wow this is great! Bought some more this morning.
Thank you to Mark Waller for all your years as managing director.
Overview of success and changes;
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ebos-me...team-bd-152098
Very pleasing result. Management delivering once again.
Yes, a great result!
Australian business accounted for nearly 74% of profit in a period of a strengthening NZD against the AUD! Any doubts about the Symbion acquisition - and I had a few - well and truly put to bed!
Shows great companies can beat earnings when external factors are against them. Same as fph.
Companies like Scott use it as an excuse
High fives all round to fellow holders. This my largest NZ holding and was rather nervous about this one , but all looks good.
Did they give a breakdown per division? couldnt see it anywhere , would like to know how masterpet performing
I have quietly about doubled my holding of EBO over the last couple of months.
So I am pleased with this result, though I have not dived into the actual accounts yet.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It gave no specific guidance for the full year while noting that the trading mix has traditionally been skewed 52 percent-48 percent between the first and second halves."
Hopefully no guidence going forward is not a worrying sign
What a great company! Thank you Mark Waller team for the last 7 or so years.
At todays price, my returns show an IRR of 182% for EBO on the combined purchases since 2007.
Future still looking rosey & I like the management shifts with Mark becoming chairman.
The app is very good by the way , there is a presentation etc and a short video on SYmbion, company looks even better on the iPad.
So the results came in within a cat's whisker of forecast results.
Divvy to be only 50% imputed (again) so a little extra tax to pay.
[Imputation: $0.03986, Gross: $0.24486, (could be wrong of course)]
So, onwards and upwards hopefully.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It is onwards and upwards.
No hopefully about it.!!
It is onwards and upwards.
No hopefully about it.!!
sorry I have done it again.!!
Percy good story in stuff today, particulary like the last line ...
DISC : Holding
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-lift-for-Ebos
Stoploss,
Thank you posting the link.Look forward to the announcement.
Don’t wish to take anything away from what Mark Waller has achieved.
Once at a talk, Mark related his son had asked him why he had stuck with the same company for 25 plus years? Mark’s reply was it might have had the same name. Nevertheless, it wasn’t the same company. Every year had presented different challenges to overcome, different market directions in which to steer. There was never a day when he got out of bed and didn’t feel like going to work. I don’t need to add that long-term shareholders have benefited accordingly from Waller’s dedication. Can you name another CEO of an NZ company with a better growth record over a twenty five-year period? Perhaps only Ron Brierley, although his star has subsequently dimmed. One of my investment regrets is never having held Ebos shares. I like to wait for transient investment mistakes to lower the price of any ultimately promising new long-term investment I might make. I am not sure Mark has made any!
Nevertheless, Ebos is not a manufacturer in the sense of FPH and SCT. Yes I know that Anti-Flamme cream is an Ebos engineered product, and a good one. But generally Ebos is a distributor of product in the health sector, a market with largely inelastic demand. It is not a fair measuring stick to compare EBO with FPH, who despite also being in the health sector have had their currency issues, or SCT. I don’t think a high exchange rate has ever been presented by FPH or SCT as an ‘excuse’ for non-performance. Certainly SCT who for many years made all their sales in US dollars have addressed the issue by diversifying into many currencies: the Soviet block, South America and Australia and New Zealand. Stating that high exchange rate will affect an NZ based manufacturer’s results is just a fact. But yes, Ebos have handled their somewhat lesser currency issues very well
SNOOPY
So Mark Waller tells the story;Sir Ron employed Mark to run EBO.Told Mark he thought EBO could possibly achieve $40mil of sales although he doubted it.!!
Mark Waller had other ideas.!! Ron old out of "the good" to keep investing in "the rubbish."
As to investing in EBO at present price? One must remember with each major acquisition growth has accelerated.So the next 5 to 10 years should be exciting and rewarding.
Oh dear.!!! Think I may have done the wrong thing selling my CAJ at 47cents.!!
I was thinking about my holding of EBO held since 1991.Had I been posting on sharetrader everyone would have said I was mad.Over the last 23 years there have been so many reasons to sell;losing this agency,fear of losing that contract,Aussie business facing headwinds,currency,Govt depts regulations,health boards. You name it EBO have faced it.Other posters would have laughed at me.How many times brokers have had under perform,reduce and sells I would hate to think.!!
My biggest mistake has been selling down EBO.
So why has EBO succeeded even when Sir Ron said it had limited potential? The reason is Mark Waller saw where the future of medical supplies was headed.The board backed him,as did shareholders.He shared his vision with staff and has taken us all on a great journey.And yet the future is where the fun is.!!!
I have been to agms,and presentations where Waller has shared his vision.What he says they intend to do,they do do it.
He delivers.
What is EBO's moat? Service with integrity.
So why did I buy EBO 23 years ago? Because with an ageing population I saw growth in medical supplies.Same today!
So why has EBO succeeded even when Sir Ron said it had limited potential? The reason is Mark Waller saw where the future of medical supplies was headed.The board backed him,as did shareholders.He shared his vision with staff and has taken us all on a great journey.And yet the future is where the fun is.!!!
Nice job Percy,there aren't many people who could hold for so long,me included.
I have always watched Ebos and at times owned their shares,a company to be admired. 23years and still heaps of growth to come.
Huuuuge amount through today !!
Any ideas why the sell off?
1.0m Shares issued under the DRIP today but no other news.??
Did we ever get confirmation of the health benefits contract noodles referred to a month ago?
Craigs recent research;"The key issue for investors is the extent to which reforms to the PBS [Australian Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme] will impact the profitability of pharmacy wholesaling in Australia."
Craigs' Portfolio view;Underweight.
Percy's personal view;Raging Buy!!.
Un-impressed that I am in the orange* on my recent topping up of EBOS.
Need a little support here, or some reasons why? (or why-not?)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
*orange with black is a good colour for a coat but not a share status.
From Craig's research "Sector summary";
"The ageing population in Australasia will support demand for healthcare services for some time.Healthcare is a defensive sector that is relatively insulated from the cycle compared to the broader market.
EBO has been a solid consistent performer.Following the acquisition of Symbion,the majority of earnings will come from Australian wholesale pharmacy,which holds material funding risks."
Maybe people see these risks.I still believe the Symbion acquisition was brilliant,and opens up more opportunities for EBO in both animal and human health areas.
The half year result was very positive.
Not a chart pattern tiger myself (but use software design patterns extensively) but as far as I see what we have here is a potential double top (price to close below the low of the inter-top dip to complete?)
From then there is a 65-70% chance of a double top where the price continues to drop away.
or a 30-35% chance that it turns around and becomes a double top failure/triple top (with chocolate flavour)/whatever.
No idea why it is doing this and where it will actually go next.
Anyway I would prefer up to down.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I think it is partly this. The half year results were very good despite the AUD weakness, but they overstate earnings given the AUD weakened throughout. The full year is likely to show more subdued growth (though still decent).
I am really keen to get on board with EBO, its just timing the entry. I think the next 18 months will be a bit more challenging, so the stock looks like dead money for a while.
Long-term, and when the can do some more acquisitions - then its a great compounder - 4% dividend + 5-10% EPS growth, not bad. Just buy at the right valuation. At the moment there are better opportunities elsewhere I think.
I think we will see EBO taking advantage of a lot of synergies opportunities that the Symbion acquisition provides for both.
I have noted over the past 23 years EBO often has periods of weakness.The charts show that over the past 14 years [longest I can find] EBO has often broken the 498 day moving average[again longest I can find].The positive is it is still above it at present!!!!!
I can't advise on timing buying ,however my greatest mistake has been selling down my EBO at times.!! Will not make that mistake again!!!! lol.
As EBO sinks below 900 a guy on the radio last night mentioned corporate activity in big pharma in the US was the reason - that's all I heard as wasn't really paying attention
What that got to do with EBOS no idea
Market has overreacted says Mark
Mark also says he has been boss for 20 years and never mentioned the EBO shareprice but today it is CHEAP. Yes he said CHEAP
sell your HNZ Percy and back up the truck to load up with EBO ...as Mark says a great opportunity
Radionz Business Report at 6.45am
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2593993
Thanks for the link Winner69.
Mark Waller has always been a straight shooter.Always hits the bullseye.If he says they are cheap,then they are cheap.
I reread the interim report yesterday,and thought to myself,Percy old son,lucky you have two trucks,No.1 truck is loaded up with HNZ,however No.2 truck still has a bit of space left,so about time to fill it up with EBO.
Timely advice thanks Winner69.
"I never comment on the shareprice, but............"
Hhmm.......
I like it better when CEO's don't "talk their own book" in that way. It doesn't alter my view on EBO, one of my oldest investments, but .........
I paid $9.10 per share for this morning's top up.
INFINZ- Equity Issue of the Year 2014;Winner- EBOS Group Limited;$239m Capital Raising.
INFINZ-Mergers & Acquisitions Transaction of the Year2014;Winner-EBOS Group Limited;Acquisition of Symbion.
INFINZ-LeadershipAward 2014;Winner-Mark Waller,Managing Director/CEO of EBOS Group Limited.
Well done Mark Waller/EBOS.
Mark's word carry along way - still going up:t_up:
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Agreement between EBO subsidiary Onelink,and Crown owned Health Benefits Ltd signed.[at last!!]
Yes, percy, it was expected that EBO would win the contract but they'd have been on a hiding to nothing if they hadn't, considering the purchasing clout of Health Benefits Ltd. I would expect that pencils would have been sharpened to get the contract and that profit margins will have narrowed.
Yes very sharp pencils.Slim margins on huge volume?
At last year's agm EBO showed a video of Symbion's Sydney $30mil order collating system.A conveyor moves along.As it moves along pills,etc are dispensed down shoots to add to each order.Fantastic.I think EBO's Auckland distribution centre is very clever too.
Mark Waller has often stated EBO is more a "logistic" company.
How much of this is new business or is it just an extension of what they do now.
Excuse my ignorance .... I only understand the pet side and that is bubbling along very nicely I hear
I can not remember how many DHBs EBO were supplying [maybe 6 or 8] ,so the new agreement is significant, as it is for ALL 20 DHBs.
Trying to work with Govt. to save a lot of money.[Here and Australia]
Working to make the health spend go further.
Best practice,stop waste,duplication of supply,overstocks,understocks,buying power.Modern distribution channels,linked with modern ordering system means the right product is being delivered very quickly.Not sure about hospitals,but I think chemist shops enjoy two deliveries a day.{for some reason I think EBO have to be able to supply a hospital in an hour].
Masterpet subsidiary to lease a new Wellington distribution centre.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...day:dailybrief
Mark probably spot on
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...uild-a-tragedy
I could not agree more Winner;
Three years ago when many folk were calling for a professional international developer like Bechtel to manage the re-build, all the local politicians were strutting about telling us how they could do it all better.
Bakers for baking, butchers for butchering, politicians for ...................
As long as honesty and integrity prevails I totally agree with Marks comments (about too much corporate governance)
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20141653
Looking to increase my position.
Is that after watching that new condom ad? "You do like sex... Don't you?". Thanks Ebos.
What are the reasons for the current weakness of EBO? Presumably it is the doubts about Health Benefits Limited (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/nation...tor-razor-gang)?
... given that Ebos's Onlelink subsidiary has won a big chunk of that business: https://www.nzx.com/companies/EBO/announcements/252297.
For 39 days EBO close was between 1000 and 1004. Very stable indeed.
So a drop to 975 (2.5%) could be described as a disaster.
But if you look at the 2 year chart the price has fallen to 900 odd a few times since it peaked at 1040 odd in June last year
If you look at Percy's 2 year old chart it is all up with a few little blips along the way
Believe the story ....have faith .....be strong ......in 10 years time it will be $20
Position doubled
I've gone the other way and bailed while I am still ahead. I think they are a good company so will keep a watch and possibly re-enter later when the cycle reverses (as EBO seems to do). I have seen my Summerset holding go from a nice gain to a moderate paper loss and didn't want EBO to do the same.
Hey onion, I will buy your shares now... and then I can sell back to you when it goes back above 10 bucks.
:-)
You can buy them on the market cheaper than I sold mine for.
For now I would like the SP to drop even further so I can get back in for the climb back to $10. I bought back in April after the SP dropped to $9.50 and topped up under $9 so I am new to the stock and didn't have a large profit margin like those lucky to have been in since 2012 -- if you are one of those then I can see that a drop to 9.50 is pretty insignificant.
And so down it goes... to $9.25 as I write.
Reasons?
As Moosie wrote last week, "Oz just released a SHOCKING jobs report (contraction v expected expansion) and EBO is taking a hammering because of it."
Tim Hunter in the Dominion Post says: "By contrast, companies with exposure to Australia, such as Fletcher Building and Ebos, would be hit by its weak economy and the high exchange rate."
Yes. I agree. Obv. it's a complete pup ;).
Quote:
EBOS will announce its annual results for the year ended 30 June 2014 to the Market on Wednesday, 27 August 2014.
Be patient with the young ones Percy
For many even 1 year ago is ages ago
But I think tomtom might have said that with tongue in cheek - he did double down the other down (at least that was what he posted)
Yes EBOS might still be a pup, when its a dog its market cap will be $10 billion ... now that's a big number
WHAT A STUNNER!!!!!
Revenue up 216%.
EPS up 34%.
Operating cash flow $114.2 mil.
Increased dividend.
Well done EBOS.
Thi si san excellent long term stock. Thanks CEO and Board
Yes, an excellent result!
It "only" met market expectations but that's only because the market has such high expectations of EBO! The really significant achievement is that they have made a success of the acquisition of Symbion. Plenty of companies have come to grief in attempting such a large scale company transformation.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ebos-pr...2015-bd-161450
NBR article - Ebos outloook subdued.
So EBO has dropped from $10.40 in June to $9.05 now. Is there a reason for this? Is it the changing of people at the top? Something I've missed? Or just a good opportunity to buy into the company? It seems to have a pretty good history of growing and the divs just seem to keep increasing each year. Divs give a good return 4.685% gross according to NZX.com
So can someone tell me what I'm missing and why EBO might not be as good as I think? Or should I just be buying now?
What are the chartist's thoughts, I guess it's now in a downtrend and I should be waiting for this to be broken?
You may have noticed Ebos have often gone their own way over the past 23 or so years.
So nothing unusual here.
Always a great opportunity to add to your holding when it happens.
It is a $20 stock.Only not saw when it will happen,but I will be there to enjoy it.I am thinking 3 to 5 years.
Yes, I would have!
The expansion into Australia is seen by the market as a company - changing move - which it is! - and is waiting for further evidence that its been the right move.
EBO has a great track record but caution here, on the market's part, is understandable.
A long term hold for me.
1 -The 23 year chart says it is still trending up .....extrapolate the line and $20 sometime in next 10 years
2 - Medium turn the chart is showing the party is over and they need to do another acquisition to give the price a boost
3 - Short term the price oscillating between $9.00 and $10.50.
So today could be a good time to buy as per 3 with the hope that 2 will happen in the not too distant future so 3 will eventuate.
Fundamentally I think EBO more than fully valued at moment with a fair bit if growth built in
But that doesn't mean much - the share price all depends on how afew big traders (instos) feel today
I did that last post without seeing Percy's reference to 23 years