WELL time for BRICKS to return to OZZ next Wednesday the ticket is $10 cheaper than last March 08 just hope AIR still pays a DIV this time round as BRICKS is HOLDING..
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WELL time for BRICKS to return to OZZ next Wednesday the ticket is $10 cheaper than last March 08 just hope AIR still pays a DIV this time round as BRICKS is HOLDING..
Is AIR a BUY at the moment at 92 cents a share?
Market Capitalisation: $976,232,454 (@92)
Earnings/Share: 20.67 cents
Price/Earnings Ratio: 4.45
NTA/Share: 145.38 cents
Dividend/Share: NZD 8.5 cents
Dividend Yield: 9.24%
1-Week Range (Low - High): 88 - 93
4-Week Range: 87 - 95
26-Week Range: 80 - 129
52-Week Range: 80 - 186
Im not too sure... passenger numbers are in a clear downtrend and on the long haul routes air nz will find it harder to decrease capacity. so far they've done that by switching from 747 to 777 services and by cutting num of flights per day. theyre approaching the stage where they cant really switch services from 747 to 777 anymore due to other constraints (747 bein phased out anyway) and if they cut anymore flights they will be effectively forcing passengers onto other airlines. in other words i dont think the outlook is good and there is probably worse to come. check out the hedging update (released last weeki think) for further info on the fuel hedging considering the falling fuel prices
BRICKS flies home today and another K RUDD hand out " O what a feeling "
No it isn't!
But what about the very clear BUY signal from the break of the confirmed trendline - one that had held good for over 18 months, I hear you ask. (or perhaps not)
Look carefully. AIR is in a trading range and this trendline was broken by AIR merely crabbing sideways. The 18 month trend is still down. Look also at the 4 other indicators at the top of the chart. See how they all confirmed the very timely trendline break SELL signal? Note the total absence of any such confirmation for this "Buy" signal, which should therefore be ignored.
AIR is of little or no technical interest until it breaks above or below its current trading range and is probably a good stock to be out of in the meantime.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR24.gif
goodness gracious -- i've just spent the last 20 minutes pondering this very issue (I still hold a few), and lamenting that reuters now longer gives out free obv!
Phaedrus, is it justified to be on heightened alert for air on the grounds that the 30- and 90-day MAs have crossed over, and the rvi, rmi, and slow stoch are all rising?
whatever, i'm grateful for the pointer that a trend break inside a trading range is a dodgy signal on its own. cheers.
I'm a bit puzzled by this comment Scamper - these particular MAs haven't crossed yet - I've checked using both Simple and Exponential. If they had, though, the answer would be NO. A crossover of 2 moving averages is a type of trend indicator. Trend indicators are of no use when a stock is in a trading range because all they do is give a series of conflicting signals. You might be interested to know that backtesting that particular crossover pair tells us that it has signaled 20 AIR trades over the last 20 years, comprising 15 losses and just 5 wins. Would a signal from an indicator that is wrong 3 times more often than it is right justify anything?
No. Rising is good, though (better than falling!) but "heightened alert"? No. Especially "No" in this case where the OBV is falling. Without meaningful volume AIR is going nowhere in a hurry. The Alert comes when AIR breaks out of its trading range. Within the trading range there have been and will continue to be a raft of conflicting signals that are of little or no interest.
Yes, but be sure to realise that it was the absence of any oscillator support that really put the kibosh on that trendline-break "buy" signal.
Thanks Phaedrus AIR is on my watchlist
Thanks all. I'm not actually looking to buy anything atm, but am watching lots to see if i can learn and reduce mistakes...
And you can't really blame them... Thanks partly to NZX for enforcing a migration on the lazy birds ...
THE position of forward bookings five weeks ahead have the planes 50 % full in the past
it stood at about 60 - 65% and flying at about 71% so forward bookings is a worry
so if you intend to fly at lease you have the pick of the SEATS..
AirNZ have been finding their forward bookings are down but the load factor achieved is actually respectable - the difference is that people are waiting until later to finalise their travel arrangements.
The load factor is reasonable, but I am told the discounting has put huge pressure on their margins. What about their fuel hedging, hows that affecting them with oil prices at these levels? Anyone know the fuel hedging position?
Still high, hedges are due to run out within 6 months I believe (don't quote me though) :P
The high hedges are mitigated slightly by the reduction in capacity, particularly long haul.
Great attitude from this company, pity about the numbers...
When is the record date for the 3 cps divi? -- it wasn't given in the report. cheers.
IF a stock is at an all-time low dose that make it a BUY well it is cheep getting assets
for next to nothing and its making a profit the times have changed on the NZX years
ago people have rushed in where did you GO wrong NEW ZEALAND..
Bricks, please can you advise the record and payment dates for the divi? Ta.
What duty would we supposedly be relieving the government of, if buying AIR NZ?
I'm not aware the government are taking a greater share of AIR NZ, are they? Someone buying AIR NZ is giving their money to someone who decided to get out of AIR NZ .....
Bricks, your post has me confused to say the least... what you are advocating, every NZer buying into the national airline would simply ramp up the price.... and for what gain? This would only provide an increased reward those bailing out of AIR NZ!
I'm obviously missing something here...
Perhaps BRICKS is holding AIR?
;)
BRICKS knows you don't but you hold DUDS like CSR,NOD and GPG so AIR is well managed and paying DIV`s and at a current GOOD price..
NEXT paul_nz a confused junior member well as time passes for you knowledge will come
with age for free, the note you wrote is wrong and will leave it up to you to work out your next
move have a GOOD day..
thanks for the info, bricks.
may i also add that its clarity of structure and comprehensible message is a stunningly unexpected effort from you. wish i could follow all your posts so easily... cheers.
Too many big words causing confusion?
Look at the nice clear picture!
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR35.gif
Yes, very nice Phaedrus
should drop like a BRICK :cool::cool:
"Bear" flag in a downtrend. After a big rout, the flag seemingly presents a chance to re-group before continuing in the same direction (down.) Volume diminishes during the pause and then rapidly expands on the continuation.
Target is usually the height of the "flagpole", so around 53 cents
BRICKS
Someone with a greater knowledge of the NZX50 composition rules might be able to answer that - I'm only making a technical observation of its price activity, as is Phaedrus.
It could slip out of the NZX50 to become an also-ran, but I would say that while J Key is in office, it would be rated an 'iconic'
The NZX 50 comprises the securities of the top 50 companies listed on the NZSX Market by free float market capitalisation. The free float is determined by excluding blocks of shares greater than 20% and blocks between 5% and 20% which are considered strategic.
That's not what Bricks was asking, though. I think.
I understood what he was asking, but preferred not to be drawn into that sort of conversation :cool::cool:
THIS is the last chance this week to get the DIV which is over 11% yld. much better than bank interest by the way in AUS rates have crashed to there lowest most now give .5%
on savings accounts this is one reason that share buying will RETURN..
bit of a newbie question coming, but what does the sp typically do around div time?
BRICKS You are in the wrong Bank my ANZ AUSTRALIAN savings account pays 4% Better than most in NZ
BRICKS The rate is STILL 4% As the account is by invation only, I suppose they would not invite a BRICK But even Macquarie is paying more than 0.5% but most of your Broker's call accounts are paying 0.5% you think you are getting cheap brokerage but they are actually robbing you blind on your call accounts
BRICKS I was An Australian Resident at the Time And Rate is not available off ANZ web site unless you have access to account. But just to show you how ignorant you about Australia's Banking System the country you say you reside in for about six months of the year. Check this Link http://www.onedirect.com.au/Apply-No...nterest-Saver/ It is rather awkward for A non resident to apply for But there are a lot of others that will deal only with Australian Residents. But of course you are a BRICK and know it all like buying AIr not so long ago you were ramping Virgin.
WHAT ever this is its not the normal account so stop wasting my time,, BRICKS dose not
ramp but tells who will listen what he thinks and AIR & VBA are good stocks which he holds
for reward.. PUSSY it stands out that your in constant MOAN mode please talk to other members about your worries and give the BRICKS the MISS..
THOSE who followed BRICKS last week are looking at a 10% gain :|"Oh what a FEELING"",
last day for div TODAY..
Actually you are both wrong. Books close for dividend entitlement on Friday. Are quoted ex div on Monday 15th.
Bricks wrong. There's a first.
Actually QOH you were right. My apologies.
Straight from their announcement...
Details of Interim Dividend
- Record Date for Interim Dividend 13 March 2009
- Payment Date for Interim Dividend 27 March 2009
ie if you buy them by 5pm on the 13th, then the dividend is yours.
Definitely not today as per your post.
Sold at 90c a few weeks back. Bought some more NZO at 1.23.
On GPG you are right, but flicked a lot of those at $1.40+. Happy to hold the rest as still in profit on those. Just hope they are not silly enough to take a stake in AIR. Then I would be worried.
FOR all those who worry and to all the non buyers AIA & AIR are now ex dividend and
we can now look forward to the next div coming, BRICKS will be returning to NZ on
the 25 TH March to resume trading..
As NZ was the first country to go into recession it will also the first to come out,
as well for a long time now it happens NZX in a limited way is in a good position to trade
more positive for the trader than the Australian Stock Exchange which is bloated with
share issues which will take a long time to digest so trading profits don't /wont happen
for some time so back to the NZX..
Nice to see AIR ex div and back up to where they were on Friday. Bought some of these at 80c (cum dividend) because airlines, and esp AIR have always moved in cycles. This has to be somewhere near the bottom of this cycle or at least much closer to the bottom than the top. 80c is about 16c in the old money, or very close to the 15c Helen paid. They have been over 60c and back again since. In the event of an upturn, Air is in a better position than it has ever been for a rapid return to profitability IMHO. I think air is a classic 'buy in gloom, sell in boom' story. Airline shares of course, not without considerable risk.
As an aside, with VBA market cap less than 200mil, what of a Fyfe/Key/Branson chit chat with a view to a deal?
Why is there no sharetrader interest in AIR?
This stock has bounced over 20% in the last few weeks!
My wife who travels domestically alot says the planes are still choc full of 'Suits'.
The Company seems to be managing capacity well yet trades at a massive discount to its peers (who arguably are not run as well).
Am I flogging a dead cat or is this a hidden gem?
FEEL there is a lot of interest i AIR only the fact is you have not been following it until
now your wife by now should be a shareholder because of her inside interest in travel
remember AIR has a large capital and a large spared of holders with good constant
turnover and at the moment is on the rise AGAIN..
Cheap vs BV but lets face it, airlines is a bad industry, so even if AIR is a good stock, its still a bad industry (Buffett I believe has some views on these sort of companies). With Qantas and AIR offering cheap deals to the USA and I see the NZ bed night data the other day was terrible, AIR might be managing the situation well but its still a bad situation. Also with the Govt owning so much, there is no chance of corporate action, albeit with Mr Key in charge you have to wonder if another JV proposal with Qantas might get a more +ve outcome.
WELL lets face it your a Business Class Mona, Buffet said only airlines did not suit HIS
ORG, he actually fly as well.. All airlines have competition but that is not helping
Mr Vitamin with his question and his wife who is a large flying traveler in should they BUY or not my answer to them is, YES..
There are very few times through the cycle when airline stocks are not 'cheap'. As for a suits on a plane, the dicsounting suggests there are a lot of suits not getting on the international flights. Airline sector will remain cheap for many years to come. Like I said the only way I can see outperformance is if NZ Govt lets Qantas take a stake, thus reducing competition across the tasman and to the USA.
Why invest in a company that is in a sector that is under pressure or is that not clear in my previous emails. As to advising someone else to buy or sell, there is not upside in that, or is it smart. I would suggest stating the +ve and -ve points is a better way to allow someone to make an informed choice. After all what do we know about Vitamin's investment process or financial position. You would not be suggesting that he should invest based on what you or I say are you?
No two companies are the same, they all differ. After all not all companies pay the CEO $3m.
What I like about AIR is it's massive operating leverage.
With a largely unlevered Balance Sheet and low capex requirements, bums on seats (not withstanding some discounting) should translate into relative outperformance.
Consenus broker valuations are already well north of $1.00 and once sentiment improves and the operating environment is a little more certain, I'm sure you will see broker valuations starting with the number two.
My original post was to try and understand why this stock is out of favour relative to other stocks on this site.
My bet is this stock breaks through $1.00 per share barrier in the near term.
How much of the fuel surcharge is AIR still charging? Has it been reduced as fuel prices have reduced?
I don't think there is any question AIR is a bargain at the moment. Sure, airlines overall are underperformers and generally I would not be expecting airlines (including AIR) to neccessarily earn an acceptable return on equity, but AIR is trading at such a heavy discount to its equity (equity 1.7b, market cap 1b) that when you look at the return available on the current share price it looks very good indeed:
Look at earnings:
2008: $218m (hardly in great conditions, oil up at $150 a barrel etc)
2009: $80m (likely result, $24m half year, mgmt expect second half NPAT to be multiples of half year result as per Rob Fyfe at results presentation)
As a go forward I think allowing for some volatility due to the nature of the industry it is reasonable (and conservative) to assume average profits around the $150m mark. Applying typical historical earnings multiples for NZX companies of around 15 (which should be restored once this recession washes over) that gives us a market cap of around $2.3b (compared to current of $1b).
I am not expecting this move overnight but I think $2.30 is a reasonable 12 - 18 month target price. Even if the price doesn't move this way, shareholder can sit comfortably on this stock given the strong dividend yield.
The talk about AIR capex coming up is just part of its business. There are always going to be some planes coming near the end of their life. AIR however has a very light capex profile this year. It will resume to normal once the new long haul fleet is introduced.
This is something of a non-issue for AIR given the $1.4b sitting on its balance sheet. And of course capex is all built into valuations based on earnings because of depreciation charge.
Disc: AIR
So, AIR breaks through the $1.00 per share mark. Depth looks good and once there is any sign of positive earnings momentum, I'm sure you will see Broker's valuations go through the roof.
Phaedrus, do the longer term trend following indicators suggesta trend change yet?
Trend change? Well, the share price has increased nearly 40% since early March '09 and depth is building at current levels. So, maybe?
gotta be careful here, the outlook for airlines is dreadful right now, one only needs to look at Qantas as an example of a well run airline in financial strife. air nz has been publicly confident about maintaining profitability, and may be in a position to capitalize on the downsizing of other airline services. But at the same time air nz is still vulnerable to further deteriorating market conditions.
Check out the depth on AIR!
The stock has had a massive run over the last month on good volume.
Looks as though there is still considerable interest at current levels.
Do any sharetraders have any price targets for this stock?
A long term target based on overhead resistance? ~$3.
I still reckon VBA has more potential, technically a lot more oversold and overhead resistance much further away. AIR looks due for a pullback to touch 95c again in the medium term (where I will load up and leave it)
According to the chart
Short term target at 1.40
Long term target at 3.20
Good chance of a reversal back to 95c these few weeks although risk to reward seems good for longer term investors
AMR, many thanks for your view and price target on AIR.
AIR has certainly had a great run of late - not too many billion dollar companies attract such little interest with Sharetraders despite increasing over 40% in not much more than a month!
Lets hope your views and, more importantly, price targets come to fruition.
Sorry about the late reply AMR - I hadn't noticed your query and have been away for a few days.
I presume you are referring to the longer-term indicators as featured in this post. These began firing on 13/3/09 when the slow Stochastic oscillator gave a Buy signal at 89 cents and had all given Buy signals in the weeks before your query. The sole exception here is the OBV. This entire turnaround has been on low volume and consequently the OBV is still flat-lining. This doers not auger well for the future of the latest uptrend and holders would be well advised to keep this one on a fairly short leash, selling on a break of the current trendline, for example.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR427.gif
JETSTAR boss Bruce Buchanan has called on politicians on both sides of the Tasman to increase efforts to set up a common border between Australia and New Zealand and help lower costs and boost economic growth.
Mr Buchanan believes such a move would lead to trans-Tasman fare reductions of at least 30 per cent, or $60 a passenger one-way, as well as stimulate the economies of both nations.
It would also boost jobs and decrease costs for both industry and border security agencies, he told a Trans-Tasman Business Circle lunch in Melbourne yesterday.
"At a time when both Australian and New Zealand economies are in technical or real recessions, and jobless numbers are escalating at the fastest rate in decades, surely this is the time to solve this problem," he said.
Phaedrus, you certainly picked AIR right in taking a breather from its recent rally. It's off its short term high but still seems like it has reasonable support. Any trend indicators showing up?
Vitamin. Technically, AIR is still in an uptrend - it would take a Close of below $1.01 to end this. The trendline that was in place has been broken and nervous holders would perhaps have exited at that point, although this was an isolated, unconfirmed signal. The usual thing now is to draw a new trendline taking in the $1.01 low. (Light green).
The three conservative indicators at the top of the chart are nowhere near triggering sell signals, but you should understand that these are lagging indicators and as such will be slow to trigger.
Note that the OBV is still flat-lining. There is still no significant volume behind this uptrend.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR510.gif
From todays paper....Air New Zealand could be in merger talks with another airline by the end of the year as the recession and increased competition threatens its long-term viability, a leading industry think tank says
Making more and more sense?Quote:
Originally Posted by biker; 15 Mar 09
I think AIR NZ have already learnt their lesson in Australia :eek: !!
Their current strategy is clear, they only want to fly routes where they are number 1. Possibly they will also fly a route as a close second if the number 1 is a non Star Alliance airline, but I can't think of any except perhaps, Auckland - Hong Kong? Hence why they bailed out of Auckland - Singapore a few years ago.
Why buy an airline (VBA) thats only ever going to be number 2 on a whole bunch routes in a whole country?
We are talking about 2 different things, Biker. You are talking about total volume. I was talking about "volume behind the uptrend". Translation :- Volume on UP days minus volume on the Down days. You can see that in the period you mention, the biggest volume day by far was a down day. (Red bar). This was volume against the uptrend.
Your observation is accurate though - total volume is clearly rising.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR513.gif
April statistics again showed that AIR is more than matching falling passenger numbers with capacity reductions.
This is how one broking company summarised AIR:
"No change in view at this stage as AIR continues to match capacity with demand. Valuation currently NZ$1.42 and rating OUTPERFORM."
BRICKS flies back to OZZ next Wednesday AIR only has one flight that day from
Wellington and the plane is still not FULL..
Phaedrus (and others);
How do you see this stock now? AIR's management has never been better and they seem to be managing adverse financial impact of falling passenger loads with smart reductions in capacity (see their last monthly update for May).
I bought into it last Friday afternoon after comparing its recent slide against that of other airline stocks. Here for example is the sp compared against Qantas (brown). I'm guessing the selloff was due mainly to British Airways' awful financial report (their largest loss ever). 6m in AIR volume on Friday was enough to trigger my interest.
Your view?
I can only agree with the following.......Quote:
Originally Posted by biker; 23/3/09
Air N.Z., Virgin Blue Should Consider Tie-up, Macquarie Says
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Robert Fenner
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Air New Zealand Ltd., the nation’s biggest airline, should consider an alliance with Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd. to cut costs and create a stronger competitor to Qantas Airways Ltd., analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
A tie-up, through a takeover or “significant” investment by Air New Zealand in Virgin Blue, would improve profitability on routes and save money by eliminating duplicated engineering and maintenance functions, analysts led by Russell Shaw said in a note to clients today.
Virgin Blue, Australia’s second-largest carrier, is battling losses from its startup of flights to the U.S., while the airline’s domestic market share is threatened by larger rival Qantas, Macquarie said. Auckland-based Air New Zealand last month announced it will cut capacity and fire workers amid slumping demand for business and leisure travel.
“With both airlines struggling in the current environment, we believe a merged entity or even some level of corporate investment by Air New Zealand in Virgin Blue would give these carriers improved longer-term prospects,” Shaw wrote. A combined company “would stand a far greater chance of remaining competitive against regional powerhouse Qantas longer term.”
Macquarie maintained its “neutral” rating on Air New Zealand and “underperform” recommendation for Virgin Blue.
Heather Jeffery, a spokeswoman for Virgin Blue, didn’t immediately return calls seeking comment on the Macquarie report. Air New Zealand’s media office didn’t return a voicemail from Bloomberg today.
Government Stake
Virgin Blue shares fell 1.7 percent to 29.5 Australian cents at 11:58 a.m. in Sydney. Before today, the stock was unchanged this year. Air New Zealand shares were unchanged at 91 New Zealand cents in Wellington.
Selling new shares to fund the deal may also dilute the government’s 75 percent stake in Air New Zealand, making it more attractive to domestic and foreign investors, Macquarie said.
Sydney-based Qantas and Air New Zealand scrapped plans to share flights across the Tasman Sea in 2006 after objections from Australia’s antitrust regulator.
Macquarie doesn’t expect an Air New Zealand tie-up with Virgin Blue to face the same opposition given Qantas remains a competitor on domestic routes in both countries. Still, any deal may still face hurdles such as foreign ownership restrictions, trade union objections and Richard Branson’s 25 percent stake in Virgin Blue, Shaw wrote.
“We don’t view any of these as being insurmountable obstacles to getting a corporate deal across the line,” Shaw said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Fenner in Melbourne rfenner@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 23, 2009 22:59 EDT
I have read Macquarie's research note.
I can't see any merger/equity injection happening given the current global economic environment and the hangover from AIR's Ansett foray.
From what I read, airlines are in survival mode. With AIR's undemanding gearing, it should emerge the strongest once passenger numbers turn.
Meanwhile Jetstar continues to shoot itself in the foot in NZ.
Passenger numbers are on the decline, and Jetstar will be competing strongly in the low-fare sector. Sometime back, I had an attack of nerves and sold my AIR shares at 83 c- I believe that it was the lowest that it got to then.
Now trading at 90 c. Its on my watchlist and QAN too.
Speaking as one who made money; lost money; lost money on Air NZ - admittedly several years ago, I'm convinced that there's easier ways of making money than investing in airline stocks.
;)
Been plenty of ups and downs eh Mcduffy
Late 2001 was the collapse of AIR and the govt bailed it out
The lowest the shareprice got was 78 cents (act 16 cents but been a consolidation since) but got backed to 140 in January 2002 when the govt pumped heaps of money in
Hard to imagine that once this great company had a share at $17 (in 1995) and even in the month it collapsed the shareprice started off over $4 .... $4.64 to 78 cents in a week or so was some drop.
Amazing that 8 years later the shareprice is not far off it's all time low ... even though it reached $3.60 odd once
Looks like the govt is under water on its investment ... even witht he dividends ... don't say much about that do they?
Yep macduffy ... agree with you there's easier (and less risky) ways to make money than AIR
If Qantas is as stuffed as this article says one would have think that AIR is stuffed as well ... maybe not as stuffed but stuffed
Qantas not being totally transparent .... May performance awful apparently ... (Quote) The passenger figures Qantas released to the stock exchange yesterday weren't flash - but the unannounced financial reality was much, much worse. ........ While Qantas told the ASX its May Qantas International and Jetstar International revenue seat factors were up 4 and 4.8 percentage points respectively, it didn't say that its yield on the combined international business had collapsed by 25 per cent.
The yield - the average price paid by the distance flown - points to the extent of fare discounting rampant on international routes and provides a more meaningful indication of how the bottom line is faring.
.....As a 1970s professor of statistics allegedly used to tell his class: "Statistics are like a bikini, ladies and gentlemen. What is revealed is suggestive, but what is concealed is vital."
http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0701-d4lp.html
After trading up to $1.12 per share AIR has tracked back down to under $0.90 per share.
Sold some around $1.10 per share and now thinking I might try a short term trade again.
Phaedrus, any thoughts on short and medium term trading of this stock?