http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ec-output-plan
Oil Falls as Iraq Seeks Exemption From OPEC Cuts, U.S. Adds Rigs
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ec-output-plan
Oil Falls as Iraq Seeks Exemption From OPEC Cuts, U.S. Adds Rigs
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-petrobra...SKBN13R1GQ?il=0
Petrobras CEO says U.S. shale response to OPEC deal may cut oil prices
Is there any other reason for falling of oil prices other than U.S Shale activitiy?
http://ww2.cfo.com/the-economy/2017/...it-new-record/
Oversupply seems to be the answer. http://www.vox.com/2016/1/12/1075575...prices-falling
the article you refer to is written in February 2016 ... well, I guess it still might have some historic value;)
If you prefer some more up to date news ... try e.g.:
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
Thanks Bulllishbear & Blackpeter for the links.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ands-11th-week
Oil's OPEC-Driven Gain Wiped Out as Shale Boom Offsets Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...hortfall-ahead
older post but very interesting where we will be in 10yrs time
Historically speaking Oil isn't under priced today (chart adjusted for inflation) ...I know this question is simplistic but..what did the greedy bastards do with the all money when they where fleecing us (for nearly a decade) just a few years ago?
there is always a way to spend money
Attachment 8921
This snippet below is reckoning 5 years now JB and just how many reserves left do the saudis really have?
"Are we in an oil rout on the cusp of a oil crisis?
Yes, very much so, and I think they have their 5 year time frame about right. Oil is traded on a very short term outlook which is currently signalling "glut" but the long term supply outlook is grim.
What to make of an industry that is discovering so much less than its annual demand? Demand runs in excess of 96 m barrels per day (equals 35 billion barrels per year) and yet the industry discovered just 2.4 billion barrels last year and has averaged just 9 billion barrels of discoveries per year over the last 15. Another oil price spike is surely coming - it will be great for Lithium and great for oil producing investments at the same time."
Yes I agree long term some of quality over sold Oil&Gas companies will give smart
Buyers some pretty spectacular returns ... maybe next year I might dip my toes back
Into some oilers.... only really interested in Aus east coast gas plays in the sector
Currently
https://www.thebalance.com/oil-price-forecast-3306219
The idea of oil at $200/b seems catastrophic to the American way of life. But people in the European Union were paying the equivalent of about $250/b for years due to high taxes. That didn't stop the EU from being the world's third-largest oil consumer. As long as people have time to adjust, they will find ways to live with higher oil prices.
Furthermore, 2020 is only three years away. Look how volatile prices have been in the last 10 years. In March 2006, a barrel of Brent Crude sold for around $60/b. It skyrocketed to $145/b in 2008. It leveled out to around $100/b in 2014. It plummeted to a 13-year low in January, then doubled to current levels. If shale oil producers go out of business, and Iran doesn't produce what it says it could, prices could return to their historical levels of $70 - $100 a barrel. OPEC is counting on it.
I've recently acquired some CVN, the oil sector is unloved, but gas in Aussie is an increasing issue re demand. CVN has both and an exceptional strike rate in the NW shelf WA where all there projects are concentrated.
Well worth a read of the last presentation and quarterly.
Market cap around 90m with 52m cash and no debt.
Yes CVN always been on the radar when I've been bullish on the sector and have held before >> still not confident in the short term outside Aus East coast Gas >> only holding RLE in the O&G sector >> but can see myself trading more next year ...
Need to see the huge under investment in the Oil sector play out over the next few years of continued high oil use to see the supply demand ratio kick the oil price much higher ....
worth a read
https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-smash...-in-the-world/
Im actually in the process of divesting my oil stocks... recent data suggests both bull and bearish sentiment in oil...
uk along with france and a bunch of other countries are in the process of banning new cars from 2040 and moving towards electric... this is a great step for mankind and something I never thought would happen...
aussie oil stocks have been boring for a decade now time to make some real money
And you don't think and the huge mining energy needs for (electric cars = power stations etc) and ongoing demand for the tens of thousands of applications that use crude oil Vs the huge under investment in exploration to back up the world's """34 billion barrels a year demand""!
there was only 2.4billion barrels of oil discovered in 2016 .... I don't think E.V are here to take over combustion engines but are going be forced to take the load as the forecasts for China + India is a HUge increase in auto's
This teaser should help the s/p shasta.
Download Document 364.65KB
It'll take 25 barrels of oil to make each EV. Don't worry just cos fuel use in vehicles is starting to decline, we still have to make all those batteries and 3 billion cars to be replaced? And all the solar panels, just cos we ain't burning it directly while driving, doesn't mean it's not consuming indirectly.
Our government has waived road user charges until 2021. That only helps the early adopters. Then the cost of running will jump up. I suspect the rate will have to go up as they start missing all the return from fuel excise tax.
There will obviously be a lot of people hanging onto old Dino tech for various reasons. The problem with the technology is that it doesn't allow for a disorganized human. I can't be bothered to plug in my phone nor wait an hour to charge... How's my car gonna be different? Much rather go buy some gas.
Oils down a lot, will it go further or upside from here
ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours
Amazing gap down from $43 to $27 when US market opened.
Black cap...
oil is headed to $20us or below...
Into the total unreal prices
:cool:
.^sc
Oh wow what is Saudi Arabia doing here...
They need $82-84us per barrel just to break even on the books...
With the demand shock this could get real ugly...
$15 barrels next is it... this is truly the twilight zone...
I just cant come to terms with how sickening that is...
:cool:
.^sc
Shrewdy,
Maybe MBS and Putin understood how painful this virus is...and is going to be. I am getting real worried about a total world shut down.
ps Don't believe Trump's claim it will be all over by Easter.
Best
to
you Shrewdy and stay isolated.
Corona invaded into commodity market as well.
Oil should bounce back in the second half of 2020. It can happen next week or next month too if corona statistics come true. I expect the average price of Brent at $35 to 40 per barrel in 2020. China is stockpiling oil. The United States also want to buy crude oil for the Strategic petroleum Reserve. Low commodities prices are boon for many industries.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...m-Reserve.html
I agree bermuda ... I'm sure your not to leveraged or exposed but I've certainly taken the losses and moved funds out from the energy sector ... going take some time to see crude demands back at longer term averages ..2021-22 etc ... I'll be very surprised to see Brent over $40bbl this year .. far too many energy producing nation's with excess supply..
Only hope is US Shale + Tar sands operations grind to a halt must be a list of bankruptcies coming 2H20 at these levels
Yeah wheres the excess production all going. im hearing about all those supertankers that are storing what, a billion or so barrels, and super con tango ahead. Interesting times and firsts on so many levels.
LOL and just like the end of the oil 'ego' price war ....
:cool:cc
Today the biggest day in oil price history ...
US oil prices fall into negative prices .. here I will pay you to take the barrel away....
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...ped-below-zero
:cool:cc
It hit -$40us totally unreal ... can not believe it...
:scared:cc
Is this a buy !
No its dangerous. Read the thread on H/C about it. Some people despite the warning have lost their dough.
Thread
Ive been looking for safer longer term plays (re 2 years) .happy to share what ive found.Bound to be others out there ? Or one could buy oilers eg Woodside.
Avoiding ones which rollover future contracts as oil is in con tango.
FUEL an ETF holds a portfolio of oilers globally.
Energy Spider XLE on US stock exchange
Because New Zealand is a net importer of oil, lower crude prices will benefit the economy after the Covid-19 crisis.The world is running out of places to store oil while China is stockpiling oil.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Nuclear-Power/China-Doubles-Rate-Of-Crude-Stockpiling-As-Oil-Falls-Below-0.html
A lot of this depends on what source of oil? The most in discussion is WTI crude but if you look at Brent Crude oil it's a lot higher:
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts
Canadian WCS oil is a problem of export as it's entirely land locked. It's also a low grade oil blend.
Without a doubt globally, oil inventories are getting maxed out. The refineries in the Middle East can't simply shut down (or not designed to be shut down). Inefficient oil producers such as fracking and oil sands will suffer the most for as long as this COVID19 quarantine stays in effect.
You want to fix the oil prices back up? Just open the economy and end the quarantines.
What impecible timing that Saudi Aramco IPO was...
Here's a snapshot of the biggest IPOs in history raising 25 billion dollars now with a 1.7 trillion dollar valuation...
The IPO price was 32...
Attachment 11383
:)cc
Wow this chart here just shows how sickk a moment we are in....
Attachment 11399
:cool:cc
Black gold is showing some strength. But I expect some volatility.
Attachment 13863
BetaShares Global Energy Companies ETF - Currency Hedged (FUEL.AX)
Ticker is OOO X dist ,77c tomorrow.Holding in my energy portfolio.Energy stocks pricemakers through inflation.
Ah, of course, thanks 777
Oil up another 2 to 3%.EU leaders agree to ban most Russian oil imports.90% of Russian oil will be cutoff by end of year.
Bulgaria ,Finland ,Poland,Netherlands and Denmark decided to stop paying for Russian gas in Roubles so are being cut off supply.
Talk of Windfall taxes for oil and gas companies .This will stop any incentive to spend on exploration and part of the reason for higher prices is under exploration in last 10 years
Posted 3 days ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...torm/101120724
Australia faces a 'perfect storm' on gas supply, as minister warns problem will not be solved quickly
Yes I see AUD spot oil $166bbl ... I have shifted just over 60% of my portfolio into the O&G sector .... with the rest across Energy metals with HUGE forward demand -Cu,Li,Ni,U308,PGMs etc
I agree safe .. hard to go bankrupt when your investment is making $$$$ and discovering Major future producing mines of critical metals>>
Not liking the stupid selling at present !!!
Could be a hiccup if the War in Ukraine finishes soon(I hope so). But I think this could be another op to get in,top up as the demand/ supply prob was entrenched well before the war started due to years of underexploring partly due to environmental pressure.
Crazy huh as it takes alot of conventional energy to build solar,wind,ev's etc.
We are so far behind reducing pollution that it will take something like banning cars in built up areas to start getting real change.
Just my opinion DYOR
Maybe renewables can command a premium if fossil feuls remain elevated.
Who wants to rely on a resource where this is happening:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
We had Energy issues prior to Ukraine ... and after ..... Russia will still have issues around O&G production.. with the Majors leaving along with their tech ..simple fact there hasn't been enough investment during the BEAR market years
Russia estimated its oil output could fall as much as 17% this year ...
EVs going take over we were told not going need oil in the future >>well thats not looking very good as along with poor investment in drilling more wells ...many Countries aren't building base load power plants ...solar wind farms just don't cut it ...along with EU nations shutting down Nuclear..
I'm sure we can all remember the BOOM in shale O&G production in the US turning the states from a net importer to actually being ableto export some energy fuels >>>but thats changed
US oil production never recovered from the price slump(Neg price) - that's the thing with fracking - you have to keep investing in new wells or production slumps. Not like Saudi Arabia, where they just have to turn some valves to increase production.....
Issues with Green Energy....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w&t=8s
Same page but i said it first ....with less words:)
A fair bit of nasty weather from TC Agatha blowing through Cuba in recent days, I see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-61688827
https://www.voanews.com/a/floods-kil...-/6603144.html
Might hold things up a bit for MAY's drilling program
ASX: MAY:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4
Zapato-1 Update
* 1233 m towards (Not far off half way) to Target Structure
* Prospective 95m Barrels (Best Estimate)
* Heavy rain in vicinity of Drilling has not interfered with Drilling Operations to date
Might be a Wind Powered trolley that needs to be pushed up to the top of the nearest hill when brisk Southerlies are howling through :)
The Road Works team at the bottom may have signed an offtake deal for some rapid foundation
digging work when no-one else is on site .. Crude Energy at Work - folks .. No oil needed :)
Natural gas prices now beating the 2008 highs and oil similar .
Reminds me of 2008 with NZo and Tui-earning $100 million p.a.
Hopefully this time-and judging by futures-it will be sustained for many years .
Oil Markets Could Face A Doomsday Scenario This Week
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...This-Week.html
Hi JB,I remember a few years ago, Bermuda was recommending a book by a well respected oil engineer , called something like Crisis in the Desert, or simillar. Anyay the author predicted that Saudi did not really have as much spare capacity as they claimed, so eventually the real shortage/crisis would become apparent. Does anyone remember the author or name of the book?
https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments...s-jpg.4488994/
Int energy intensity figs for conventional and renewables.
An awful lot of conventional energy required to make all these green energy solutions.Wheres it going to come from.With years of under exploration ,many countries reserves at lows,close to max production globally,refineries that can't keep up imo $100 a barrel is the base from hereon not re $50 like in past recessions.Im up to 10% invested in energy atp .Just hope I'm right and it really is different this time and that the world is still in denial about the perfect storm pickle it's got itself into DYOR it can be a volatile sector.
yep
I see Ford’s new electric truck was only able to tow a trailer 85 miles before the battery died. 85 miles.
And this is what the Biden regime wants to force on farmers, truckers, and everyone else who raises and transports food and goods
And all these woke -Climate change is our nuclear moment noddy's
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e55Vued028&t=4s
back to 75ish now I reckon
Nope ... well not unless ... consumers don't want to see any major investment in keeping Oil flowing anywhere near demand rates going forward .. the majors will just continue to buy-back shares and not keep investing in steady production levels..
I see Brent oil closed $101bbl .. 143bbl AUD ....
Dropped to $ 95.
52 WEEK RANGE USD/bbl
57.79-130.50
support at 100 gone! tis now strong resistance
i tell ya 75 coming
Is talk around an agreement might be made with IRAN soon ... but thats been talked about for years .... I think we have more Bullish cases than Negative .... most likely we will see Brent oil bounce around 90-100bbl levels till we have a clearer picture after USA mid term elections which I'm sure US Govt has been involved in keeping the Wti lower to promote better sentiment for present Govt trying to rain in INflation...
This morning's weekly EIA Report (I had to triple check these are correct)
Total Crude Inventory: -10.5 million barrels
Commercial: -7.1 m
SPR: -3.4 m
Total Gasoline: -4.6 m
Total crude inventory is now down 16% yoy and SPR is down 26%
Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/opec-chief...093000669.html
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/opec-chief...093000669.html
I really feel natural gas/with pipelines to lpg is the place to invest in energy atm and probably for the foreseeable future.
Obvious reasons
Short term-Russian supply near stopped .lpg input terminals completed and being built-3 new constructions even for Germany.
Long-term-natural gas is the clean transition fuel
Towing something with less drag
Here's What Happened When We Tried To Tow With The Ford F150 Lightning Electric Pickup Truck - YouTube
IMHO we are presently in a major Bear TRAP ... this won't last past NOV certainly DEC at the latest till OIL surges back over $100WTi
2023-24 OIL will make new record highs and stay high ..
Two of the smartest analyst in the energy sector>>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJqd3USm_uo
Strategic Petroleum Reserve release today at 8.4mb - largest release ever and is now at the lowest level since Oct 1984.....
Just think when they have to rebuild the SPR ...and we have China coming back to full demand .... many Asian nations are consuming more Oil than pre covid 2019!!
I found this an interesting read....
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/trevo...ium=member_ios
This is about as simple as it gets.
US Government decided to tap the Strategic Reserve drawing about a million barrles per day. Since March
▪︎The plan was US Oil Production would rise by 1.5 Million to 2 Million Barrels per day when the draw ends. Production rose by just 300,000 total. Or about 15% of the planned increase.
▪︎The Draw which equated to 12% of USA daily supply ends next month.[/COLOR]
▪︎The 170 million barrels drawn- needs to be topped back up. Meaning the USA Government will be competing to buy Oil from other buyers in the open market.[/COLOR]
▪︎The latest half baked idea out today- they won't buy the oil till its in the $80s. Even though the market knows they need to buy the oil. 170 Million barrels worth.[/COLOR]
How this is not understood is even more troubling than the stupid idea of drawing Oil from Reserve and telling Oil Companies they will be obsolete.[/COLOR]
This is correct and one of the dumbest examples of bait and switch that we have seen in years. They managed to keep the commercial inventories roughly flat for 12 months while depleting the SPR. Once the SPR draws cease in October, the commercial inventories will start to drop by 8-10 MM bbls per week just as we go into the winter months. This will cause oil prices to run back up to the $120-130 per bbl range and cause gasoline, diesel and heating oil to all spike higher, which will cause the CPI and PPI to climb even higher than they are now.
Basically the comments are along the lines of the sale of the strategic reserves are to keep the oil price down for the elections and it will come back to bite them.