Back in for another run at 2100;)
Slam
Printable View
Back in for another run at 2100;)
Slam
thankfully i got me another short at 1.2037 and slept on it.... +83
Tandem butterflies in play?
http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/1561/eurusd0xw.png
Peat, I'm not going to get into a debate about service providers, but yesterday it was indicated that it was a wait and see day, as it hadn't got on with the job of retesting lows. I read it as that anyway, and acted accordingly on cable, when the retested support clearly held. Pity was, I didn't follow the 'sharetrader A(rco) team' advice, and turn long, I simply squared up.
Easy in hindsight, but I think you need to be willing to take some money off the table when its there for the taking, and at the very minimum, have a stop loss in place to protect some profits, or at worst breakeven.
I'm thinking Arco is tongue in cheek when he says to use it as a reverse indicator - Max is more often right than wrong, in my experience. (but no mistake, he can be wrong)
Anyway, seems it may not be right for you, so maybe stick with the ideas put up on this forum
BTW, yesterday in GBP: Arco 1, Martin 0[}:)][}:)]
Xerof
Small long at 12094, s/l 12044
Xerof
Yeh Martin was capping Eur at 1.2047 as well which kind of influenced me to hold my shorts as this was a do-able level in terms of equity. But the 1.21 thing has put me on the knife edge.Quote:
quote:Peat, I'm not going to get into a debate about service providers, but yesterday it was indicated that it was a wait and see day, as it hadn't got on with the job of retesting lows.
Anyway, seems it may not be right for you, so maybe stick with the ideas put up on this forum
Yes I do agree that I should have taken some profits when they were there. Thats the very reason I took the second short, so that I had something to work with without being out of the game.
does the fact we have no pullback after the climb indicate its more likely to continue the climb?
Think Asia don't know what to do with it Peat.
But a glimmer of hope - have a look at the 2 hourly, and spot the inverse H&S thats developed over last few days. Usually there is a return to the neckline before it takes off, so perhaps we see 12025/50 area again. No promises though...
Xerof
Closed long EUR at 33 - into the batters box on smaller butterfly
Xerof
well done, thats nearly picking the top if the last 2 hours action are anything to go by. :)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Closed long EUR at 33 - into the batters box on smaller butterfly
Xerof
Peat, hope you managed to get through the bullsh*t s/l run in early europe. Low was 12051 on my platform, sorry - a pip out;)
Xerof
EUR may be setting up a similar WW sequence
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102705ww_125.gif
GTA - arco
Might yet even stretch into the red box of the larger butterfly posted yesterday
Xerof
EUR managed a high of 2173 (Kissing the 5 ? point around 1 am)
If you rode the action north to the target zone 5? (see previous chart) you should/could have gotten upto 100 pips (max) on a day trade.
.........and if you reversed south there has been a max of circa 50 so far. I will try to update the chart later.
arco
nah, that first spike up 2125 was too much so bailed. went long haha then had to bail again. the forex mind games gettin a bit much for me now. every time i change position it moves agin me.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Peat, hope you managed to get through the bullsh*t s/l run in early europe. Low was 12051 on my platform, sorry - a pip out;)
Xerof
i guess I'm the fodder for the sharks......
Afternoon all, such a glorious day in the Bay today, I just had to go beyond the gates and have a coffee in the village.
Peat, :(:( we all go phases such as you're currently experiencing. Maybe spend time (not your money) on the demo to work out some systems that suit you and work for you.
Note also Peat, TRL's commentary today is a wait and see scenario
i.e might see final spike, but drop below 121xx should confirm top is in place
Arco, you mentioned a possible head on GBP - could be same setup for Euro too
Had a 'flyer' above at 12190 in case there was one more decent run into my more ambitious 'red zone', but you were obviously keeping a lid on it:D:D
Xerof
Speaking of head and shoulders -I followed up on my comment to Peat a couple of days ago about an inverse H&S on the 120 min chart I'd spotted and which was due for a return to the neckline. In the event, other than the brief spike up to take Peat's stop out[V], this panned out perfectly. The concern is - it is a classic set-up which has developed further and now targets 1.2270, if the structure plays out according to Hoyle.....
Just another alternative for the pot......
http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/5696/eurhs9gr.png
Xerof
Hi Xerof
The way I measure H & S is this....
Form a measurement line from the 'Head' and at 90 degrees to the neckline. Place that measurement at the point where the action exits the neckline and at the same angle. (If you use a Fibo grid you dont have to worry about the angle).
arco
PS. Thats roughly gives about 2247....with Major Gann at 2207.
Noted thanks Arco, I shall rein in my exhuberance for the target.
That ol' 2207 major Gann again!! thats featured a number of times on this thread in the past.
On that basis I'll leave the 'flyer' in at 122 ish.
That all fits in nicely then with TRL's reversal point, my larger butterfly reversal zone, the inverse head n shoulders zone, and the major and his men.
With so much lining up, that probably means its already turned turtle and is ready to scarper...[^][^]
Xerof
ps, I assume these refinements to JJ Murphy's iconic masterpiece are to be found in the soon to be released 'hitchhikers guide to the FX markets'
pps, n don't reply '42' :D:D
BTW, TRL's just lowered his sights - sell at market.....with tight stop....
Xerof
Here are the Gann calcs in Glorious Red and White.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102805gl_518.gif
the 2200 target discarded unceremoniously.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
BTW, TRL's just lowered his sights - sell at market.....with tight stop....
Danes retained their short stance, having a stop at 23.
"Me? I'm just a lawnmower , you can tell me by the way I walk"
apologies for the random Genesis quote
Nice move with upto 125 pips available from previous ideas.
Gann calcs proving their worth.........
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102905gl_103.gif
had a limit sell in at 1.1796 overnight which just got hit before plummeting, currently +60. Looking at the candles I really wouldnt have expected it to be taken. The daily high is that exact number. Not often things go that way. :D
out for the weekend at 1715 from 1806 +91
tho lost 60 pips really quickly in that upspike on the 23rd dammmmm
it aint easy.
Lone Olesen : Jyske Bank
Snow is starting to fall, as winter closes in on us. The same
more or less goes for the currency market. Market participants
are beginning to mentally "slow down" (more than usual), and
sayings that "volatility is going to fall further, as markets are
going to slow down, as December advances!"are doing the
rounds. I strongly warn against listening to this. Instead I
foresee another generally unexpected jump higher in the USD.
Right now many are awaiting rate increases in Euroland, and a
coming slow down of the Amerian rate hike cycle. You be
aware though that these expectation are already priced into the
market now. They are in other words "Schnee von Gestern".
Should our friend Mr. Trichet - who is under severe political
pressure not to hike - "stumble" at this week's policy meeting
in Frankfurt, either by not delivering the expected rate increase,
or by playing down the effect of an actual rate increase, market
response could be very detri-mental to the EUR in general. The
dollar on the other hand has taken a hit as market is slowing
down its expectations as to the hawkishness of the FED in 2006,
and nevertheless the dollar has succeeded in gaining a footing
again. EUR/USD is right now starting to slide through 117 with
eyes set at a decisive test of 116.40 anew. This time around the
old bottom is going to break and open up for new lower levels,
which would be a major surprise to many market participants
who have been bottompicking the last week or so.
Thanks Peat
Jyse bank quote .........EUR/USD is right now starting to slide through 117 with eyes set at a decisive test of 116.40 anew.
An excellent contra indicator from Jyse in the short term.:D
arco
yeh it didnt pan out exactly huh
the question is has direction changed overall tho. Max doesnt think so while 1900 contains...
i've hedged my EUr short with a USD/CHF short for a while..... maybe until Eur = 1840ish.... or CHF = 3070ish
Here's that billious chart again that I posted on Khalsapad forum one month ago.
...........it was a long and winding road but today we have arrived at that calculated Gann coordinate for circa 300 pips.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eurgann111405_973.gif
Speaking of Gann targets, look at the number that pops up on my chart today - 1.2207. Also a 1.272% fib extension
Might be some minor skirmishes ahead of there though below 12100
http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/3488/eurusd6hb.png
G'nite y'allQuote:
quote:history, never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep....
Xerof
p.s. Arco, one of the minor problems I'm finding with DGL on Esignal is it's not terribly accurate, as the live feeds do not have spikes filtered out (compared to what you get on EOD data from rooters et al)
Evening Xerof
I have 2048 0n the M/S EOD level
arco
gone a little long for real.....
3 hour MACD is movin up now, and 2050 was bounced off.... pretty tight stop at 2107 possibly too tight but its a toe in the water
:([B)]
where to now[?] this probably blows the 1.24 goal.... are we back to new lows...
y'day lady dane said the dollars would look cheap soon.
Perhaps due for a turn north.............
http://upload2.postimage.org/stocks/...8/trading.html
http://tradingthecharts.com/upload/eur_216_16.jpg
arco
edit....added visual chart
Hi All
Went long on yesterdays pullback
First target looking for 1.1130, fib retracment on daily
Cheers
Slam
1.2130 you mean :P
I'm just wondering if it will retrace before it heads up again... the retracement to 1.1992 after the ISM wasn't quite convincing...
Hey is there a way to predict which way the price will gap over the weekend?
Hi Pringy
Yep, sorry 1.2130 [:I]
Would be rich if I knew that;)Quote:
quote:Hey is there a way to predict which way the price will gap over the weekend?
Cheers
Slam
Updating chart from 17th Feb
Currently showing a max of 225 pips from the turnaround as expected at (v).
Looking for resistance to halt progress at the grey box area/downtrend line.
GTA arco
http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpB...06_eur.usd.gif
Arco,
Falling trendline worked a treat - hope you managed to get some out the door.
I was offering at 121 flat, missed by the flutter of a wing, and never really chased it down [|)][|)]
I'm wondering if the bottom of the channel shown on your chart might hold it this time around - methinks not....but interested in your opinion
regards
often absent Xerof
Maybe...............
http://img396.imageshack.us/img396/1...6eurusd2pm.gif
Watching for a reversal signal - maybe it will come.
GTA - arco
Hi Arco
I get the top of the uptrend line circa 1.2460 on the Daily, so would fit nicely
Cheers
Slam
DeMark Candle Count = 9
which might mean something.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur_td.gif
arco
I hadnt heard of DeMark so for all of our info
yes it is looking pretty overbought now tho my MACD isnt actually showing divergence like yours is.Quote:
quote:DeMark advises against trading in extreme overbought or oversold conditions indicated by six or more bars above or below the 45 thresholds
and today looks like it will close with a bearish Harami (?? am i right or is the wick too high) and if so this has increased significance due to the RSI now being in the overbought zone (filtered candle theory)
Jack Crooks reckons 1.16 before 1.30!
Morning Peat
Harami.
As long as the body is within the previous candle the pattern is valid. A long overhead wick would be additionally bearish IMO. It shows the bears pushed the bulls back from a higher point.
arco
Hi All
Long Term, could this be forming a H&S on the weekly/Monthly charts?
Cheers
Slam
i havent got access to my long term charts but I'm guessing you mean shoulders at around the 1.29 level with head at 1.36. So first we would have to reach 1.29 again and then we would have to break down through about 1.19 to have that confirmed.
Although I'm no longer a subscriber I got Max's latest forecast graph on the Eur today. First target 1.29 then a whopping 1.7 !!!!!
Still I seem to recall him predicting the Kiwi at .9 against the US too. (Could still happen I suppose)
Hi Pete
Yep, that's the one, Long way off yet, but just a thought.
2.5 year pattern;) so may take 6 mths to play out.
I like looking at the big picture. I find it helps confirming the next and the next and so on.
Cheers
Slam
agree the big picture is valuable, but my big picture on the Eur would be closer to Max's , that we are in long term bull market with move from 1.36 down to 1.16ish was a correction! 2000 pip correction LOL !!
Just scalping a few pips while I'm relaxing, but this chart looks
interesting for longer term punters.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/060906_eur.usd_w.gif
Regards -
arco - gently baking in 23 degrees while sipping a cool beer, and watching the waves from the balcony [8D]
Travelling well at this early stage Arco.....
regards
Xerof
Ok hammer on the 5min,and shooting star on USD/CHF 5 min,they go opp so worth a watch,slow though.
Cheers
miner
Hi Miner, went short just after the annoucement on eurozone data as follows
Euro Zone May Current Account data has disappointed as the deficit widened to
EUR 8.2Bln, against the expectations for a slight narrowing to EUR 7.0Bln from
the previous -EUR8.0BBln report.
Elsewhere, the third German state to report its CPI for July (Hesse) showed
monthly inflation rising by 0.5% with the annual rate at 1.9%, up from 1.8%.
This compares to national consensus CPI of 0.4% & 1.9% and should keep the
national data inline with consensus forecasts.
Was stopped out earlier in the day on the eur/us
at present not a lot happening
Hi Roddy,yep like watching paint dry,the hourly's(three before this one) won over those 5min candles,sideways and messy tonight so just watching,might be time to hit the hay soon.
Good trader this one though.
Cheers
miner
Nice trade if you were up at 2am last night,same with USD/JPY and USD/CHF but opp way,grass growing since though.
Cheers
Miner
yeh i was up.... got some of those CHF pips ! will look for signs of a breakout on the upside again toniteQuote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Nice trade if you were up at 2am last night,same with USD/JPY and USD/CHF but opp way,grass growing since though.
Cheers
Miner
well done Peat for catching some of those CHF pips.
i was short the EURO, instead of taking profit yesterday morning i added to the position and last night added more as it headed southward, only trouble being each time i added to the position i was placing larger amonuts on the trade,so what could have been a tidy profit turned into a loss, as it never followed through and i was stopped out!
I've been reading that reminisces of a stock operator book that arco linked to and he (Jesse Livermore) reckoned (and i agree) that when you're pyramiding your position you should have very tight stops indeed, and only pyramid as it goes with you, i.e risking existing profits - do not add to a losing position.
thanks for the feed back Peat, I will try to implement having tighter stops when pyramiding,it hadnt actually occured to me as i normally place a 30 pip stop as standard practice , as can be judged from my previous post i wont be giving up my day job just yet. i am keen to learn my biggest problem at the moment is lack of discipline and reacting to quickly
Evening chaps,good stuff peat,hope you took the $ looking at it tonight,ouch,Roddy I use the take the money and run method in this game as to volatile and always another trade to be had.
Make your rules(stops etc) and stick to them,put a CD on empty your mind relax and trade hehe.
Cheers
miner
mmm does anyone do Elliott Wave analysis here?
The break through the diagonal support on 17 July has screwed things up... the subsequent low at 1.2457 on 20 July, makes you wonder if it is a Wave 2 or correction E, since it has retraced more than the low at 24 Jun 1.2478 (Wave C)...
Problem is trying to decide if 8 July to 20 July is an impulse or a corrective...
Time will tell... if it breaks through 1.2750 tonight, it's going to be a good run!!
Hi Pringy
Heres a possible count on weekly/daily from EWM
"The count suggests that an upward impulse wave from the lows has been completed, the EUR/USD is in a bearish mode as long as it holds below the $1.30 level. The decline could be corrective, which depends on whether the longer term support at $1.10 holds; the internal structure of the downward move is also important. Key support for the medium term is the zone from $1.150 to $1.20."
http://www.elliottwavemarkettiming.com
arco
bumpity bump....Quote:
quote:Originally posted by peat
i havent got access to my long term charts but I'm guessing you mean shoulders at around the 1.29 level with head at 1.36. So first we would have to reach 1.29 again and then we would have to break down through about 1.19 to have that confirmed.
1/ the first requirement has now happened.
2/ to remind us about arco's graph of the 9th of July, which I'm still keeping my eye on (and from a JPY perspective as well)
Trades taken out at that time longing $ would have been in AND out of the money during the last month but are now starting to come back in to +ve territory.
Hi Peat/All
Blue plot on the chart of 6th June is still in play.
Short term it looks possible we may see a little rise up from Fridays close before EUR reverses and heads further south. (According to Major Gann anyway).
.........its hot on the SS coast today - 24 C. [8D]
(Weather in NZ looks a bit dodgy....so might hang on here a bit longer)
GTA - arco
Check out yesterdays EOD Inverted Hammer (Bullish)- thats a candlestick that has a long upper shadow and a small real body at the lower end of the session. It's usually a bullish bottom reversal signal.
That sorta confirms that little rise I mentioned yesterday which could possibly take EUR back to the 2970 area.
GTA - arco in QLD
Trust a few got long before the event............
In July, a 1.3-percent increase for finished energy goods prices
slightly outweighed declines of 0.3 percent for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods.
+62
Heading nicely to the target mentioned.
Currently consolidating circa 2842
+ 117
Got on a bit late but still picking up a few pips
+54 atm
Nice call arco (as usual)
Cheers
Slam
I placed a tight stop overnight @ 2851 which was hit for +126
Currently watching for a possible re-entry at a similar or better number.
GTA - arco in QLD [8D]
Finale perhaps............
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/081806_ew_weekly.gif
Hi Arco
Great posting and trading,If 1.32 is reached which is the target of the 5th wave, strictly speaking does that invalidate the bearish butterfly pattern,or are the two charts just confirming each other?
slightly off topic,have you read any of Scott Carneys books Harmonic Trading regarding butterflys, bats etc
Hi Roddy
Re your questions.
Q. If 1.32 is reached which is the target of the 5th wave, strictly speaking does that invalidate the bearish butterfly pattern.
A. No, it means there is the possibility the original Bearish Blue Butterfly could grow a slightly longer leg, taking the print to circa 3200 and it would still remain a valid pattern. (Also a point to remember is we have already had about 500+ pips from the original 'blue').
Q. Are the two charts just confirming each other?
A. The 2 taken together could be considered as hinting at the possibility of a further extention to the 'blue' leg.
Q. Slightly off topic,have you read any of Scott Carneys books Harmonic Trading regarding butterflys, bats etc
A. I am familiar with Scotts patterns, but I havent read any of his books.
Hope that answers youe queries
Regards - arco
Hi Arco,
waiting for an upward break if it goes that way!
http://img238.imageshack.us/img238/2358/noname6wj3.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
direction is not what you think but indeed has gone now.!
hopefully waiting in the wings!
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3202/noname02qh5.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
I have a Gann turn date 19th so I'm trying a little long here
+ 30 presently.
.....see how we get on.
Thanks for that Arco
eod and hourlies tending upward from 2679 level
as always i realise i trade at my own risk!
cheers cadet roddy
Possible base building at 2630?
Waiting now for the 19th before commiting additional funds and see if we get a good reversal signal at the Gann date.
regards - arco
HI Arco
been watching this one with interest, after your post,Arco the move up from 2630 to 2700 is that a significant enough reversal or would you prefer to see higher levels before entering?
also i am still long Aud, which needs to make a break above 7570 i believe.
cheers cadet roddy
HI Roddy
Todays candle created a Piercing Pattern basing off a Tweezer Bottom which is technically bullish. However, a confirmed break of 2753 would obviously give more confidence to an possible bullish scenario/follow through.
Regards - arco
Calculated Gann reversal date was 19th as mentioned a few days ago, so added a rather large position at 2677 overnight which is currently +43.
Have moved stop above b/e now, so a no lose situation whatever happens.
GTA - arco
similar
i got in yesturday at 2678
got out today at 2715 around 3ish this aftanoon.
a good few pips, shoulda stayed in with the master
i got in cause of divergance on 5 minute chart with RSI.
though i mite get in again in time however
Morning All
Major Gann triumphs again.............
TP 2777 hit overnight +100 pips.
I will review the situation later for possible re-entry.
regards - arco
mmm ok something strange happened to my cmc markets thingie
my linked stop limit order i had placed was in fact 2 seperate orders..
i have no idea waht happened, but im up 80 pips... i guess its all good?
good trading arco especially about taking the 'rather large' possie. :D
Dazza, yeh I screwed up too actually , using the same software. Left a (sell) stop order in, it and it got triggered at 116.96 USD/JPY when my actual strategy at that stage (tho not 'in' at that moment) was long USD. Discovered a -25 pip trade [:0] but of course being short wasnt a bad thing last night. so no damage done.
1 - Must be more careful
2 - s/w shld be smarter
Hi Arco
seriously Great trade on Euro!
on a lighter note
i am especially pleased in regard to the rather large possie, as it will free up your time for a bit, so now you will be able to concentrate on the long overdue book, however if that is too daunting, i will look forward to the first chapter of your E-book instead!
cheers cadet roddy
2nd to that roddy
let us know it here u have a big following arco :D
Take a look at the 15min chart on this and usd/chf,see the pattern,something to watch for,eur/jpy going south has helped also.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Peat
Doesnt this have a familliar look to it ,any thoughts
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3839/noname04rv4.jpg
check out JPY as well
cheers roddy
i shorted the eur last nite at 2726
the 15 min chart showed bearish divergence with the RSI
so far 60 pips pocketed.
Hi Dazza
well done,i havent quite pulled the trigger yet,price is just below trend line 2667 at present
roddy
Good entry Dazza,Roddy usd/chf is well through yesterdays high,so if stays above eur/usd should follow(as in the opp way).
Hi Miner
i see what you mean, the euro follows the chf except Euro should head south.
is this a regular occurance?
cheers cadet roddy
really?
im actually going to long the EUR
i manually took myself out of that trade.
ended gaining 59 pips.
i saw bullish divergance on 15 min RSI chart.
so that tempted me to exit my trade.
i wasnt home for the 2650ish mark where the bullish divergence occured.
closed my trade at 2667
im looking to long EUR... for a 30 pip trade maybe..
Hi Miner short at 2663,see what happens
cheers cadet roddy
placed a buy at 2665
stop at 2650
limit at 2695 - about 62.8% fib retracement
from the 2710 drop
wish me luck, will see how this plays over nite
lol roddy, i see , we see different things :D
Evening Roddy yep eur/usd always goes the opp way to usd/chf and usd/chf leads the way,most of the time they mirror each other(opp way though) but sometimes like last few days eur/usd gets out of sequence(look at last couple of daily's not counting today) but then it gets it together and does what it should.
So working on the above if you look at usd/chf daily's(last 4 before today) they were telling you that eur usd was a short,or would go short.
Then to get tricky look at last 5 usd/jpy daily's,they go same way as usd/chf,and opp to eur/usd,so they were also saying what eur/usd would do.
So you can confirm or get the jump on moves(short eur/usd last night,not by what it was doing but by what usd/chf was doing) then there is eur/jpy hehe.
I often long or short one by what another is doing,so am actually looking at a different pair to the one I am trading,and obviously the one I am trading but you get the idea.
Hope that made some sense and helped.
Cheers
Miner
mmm maybe my bullish divergence, was seen already?
bah :D
oh well got my stop anyways, so i can sleep well tonite