Earnings surprise in 2016?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
percy
Projections.............. 2015............. 2016......................2017
Craigs eps................0.25.................0.29...... .................0.35
4-Traders eps...........0.25................0.289........... ...........0.329
Craigs PE..................11.5..................9.7..... .................8.1
4-Traders PE..............11.4.................9.9.......... ............8.7
Craigs dps..................0.20...............0.23...... ...............0.28
4-Traers.dps...............0.195..............0.217. ................0.24
Craigs div yield............6.8%...............8%............ ..........9.6%
Craigs eps growth.......23.2%.............17.8%.............. ..20%.
The eps growth took me by surprise,as did the yield..
2015 AT-EPS came in at 24.5c, net dividend 19c, fully imputed.
1) Aquaduct acquisition announced today.
- Relocatable factory making large bore very long pipes (fewer seams). Looks good.
- Bought off the receivers for asset value $8m; forecast EBIT 0.5-1.5m with NO project income. Staff and branding / goodwill retained.
- Prospect of up to $20m project income income from major irrigation projects (giving, by my estimate, $4m NPAT).
- Net effect on eps 0-5cps (my estimate).
2) Fortress acquisition adds 4.5 cps
3) Inherent growth estimated at 11% (20% in 2015)
4) debt/debt+ equity 30% in 2015, rising to 32% with aquaduct buy, and back to 30% in 2016.
The 2015 dividend payout ratio of 78% seems sustainable.
|
Jun-15 |
post-aquaduct |
06/16 e |
Bank debt |
72 |
80 |
73 |
equity |
167 |
167 |
174 |
d/(d+e) |
30% |
32% |
30% |
Looking at 2016:
|
15 |
16 |
npat ul |
21.4 |
30.8 |
net eps ul |
0.245 |
0.340 |
net payout % |
78% |
78% |
gross dps |
0.264 |
0.366 |
gross yield % |
10.1% |
14.0% |
eps for 2016 = 24.5c+11% growth + 4.5c (Fortress) + 2c (Aquaduct)
Looks like a high yielding stock with strong recent EPS growth, two good recent acquisitions and a good story - irrigation income.
It's in a slow downtrend.