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oldowl, if you are trying to say that if I were to sell my 200,000 shares today I wouldn't get anyone interested at 2 cents I am shocked and dismayed. Yes, unfortionately there is what is called a very large liquidity premium associated with this stock. Liquidity risk is one of the things you are supposed to consider when you invest. But darn it, while I did consider it, I thought I could overcome. When you actually factor the liquidity premium into the current share price the company and my shares are worth very, very little.
My origional strategy was to buy my 200,000 shares over a period of about 3 months so as not to create this massive share price disturbance. I picked my last lot up at 4 cents. Did you see the person who bought at 7.7cents a few days ago. Try selling them now brother. I would be happy to sell this person my shares at 7.7cents.
This entire exprience feels a lot like Strathmore. Remember them? My net worth was about $600 back in 2001 and someone told me that Strathmore was the quick and easy way to prosperity. (This was after the tech crash - I was a little foolish). I invested my $600 at 2 cps and they were soon worth 0.2cps. The Strathmore chart was to be seen to be believed - it wasn't a straight line descent into the abyss it was this concave shape into the abys. There was no liquidity. I should have learned from my mistake. Strathmore had a crap product, but Blis has a good one. That is the difference between the two cases. I am a big believer in the product but I think I am alone. If there were others then they would be investors like me. They would buy my shares.
Simla, not knocking the management. The CEO looks like a nice guy. I am not sure who to target my wrath at. Can you be confident that next year they are not going to come back to us and ask for more money? If the board or senior management actually had a long term strategy then why did they not forsee the need for cash last year when they came to the shareholders asking for money. This is three years in a row. '
The shareholders can either sit back and hope and believe or we can demand concrete details on how they are going to market what they have now. Why do we need the product in toothpaste. Sure this would be amazing. I would buy it, if it were cheap and sold by Pams, or budget. But I believe they have a good product now so why don't they market it properly using some of my ideas for example, ideas that do not cost a lot of money.
New Zealanders are health concious people. Isn't this a good place to try out a well thought out marketing strategy to see what works and what doesn't before hitting the US and some of these other massive markets.
Another concern of mine is why doesn't this investment document address the current economic climate and the effect this is going to have on business. The chairman writes:
These risks are exacerbated by the global financial crisis sweeping world markets. Shareholders must consider these risks in reaching a decision as to whether to take up their entitlement for Preference Shares" (Page 8).
It is the boards duty to consider these risks. Have these risks been identified and if so where are they listed in the document? Or are they just great undefinable "risks".
When it appears that the last strategic review of the Company's operations was conducted in 2006 (see page 7) it concerns me that the Board may not actually have done a more recent strategic review when the economic conditions are much, much, much different than what they were in 2006. If they havn't then they are not really doing what they are supposed to be doing. Tell me where in this document is it written that such a strategic review has taken place?
The fact is they have to learn to run this business on the smell of money not the taste of money. This situation isn't going to change for quite a few years. Is it part of their strategy to come back next year with another capital raising?
"The Board has CAREFULLY considered the means by which this capital should be raised and believes that in the current economic environment that the Rights Issue presents the only viable means of raising the capital required by the Company."
I capitalise the words because I don't think CAREFUL consideration is even necessary. The options are fairly limited. The chances of the banks lending them money is nill. It was probably the same even before the current "economic environment".
What they should be CAREFULLY considering is whether they actually need the money to begin with and whether they are basing there entire business model on a pre-2008 strategy.
Oldowl you raise an interesting point about liquidity. Correct me if I am wrong but these preference shares will convert to ordinary shares at the end of three years at whatever value. But if everyone who has purchased these preference shares tries to sell them, as ordinary shares, on the same day at the end of the three years:
1. They will not be able to sell them at the prevailing price at that time unless liquidity improves
2. They will likely pay quite a large premium if liquidity does not improve.
Simla, defender of Blis, where in the documentation is addressed this aspect of liquidity? Do you really think you will be able to sell your converted ordinary shares and get your money back and still get the 10% semi-annual return? Who is going to buy them in 3 years time?
Caesar, you seem pretty keen that Blis should succeed, like the rest of us. But scattered throughout this forum, including in my posts, are endless references to things turning out badly as one obvious possibility. It is a risk stock. Until/if Blis succeeds, it will have not succeeded, and liquidity will be low. Liquidity is probably very low at present anyway as shareholders save their cash for the rights issue.
Blis is already selling into a market with a few hundred million more potential customers than only a year ago, so the potential is there for fairly fast progress. But nothing can force that, especially with the world going to pieces financially - it may be quick, it may be slow, or it may never happen. Longtime shareholders know that the news really only comes in the two half year reports, delivered at the end of May and end of November, unless something quite big happens in the meantime. If you want to sell out, possibly there may (or may not!) be more buyer interest in a month or two, as the rights payments will be over and the half year report may contain some good news. There seem always to be bid offers available on Blis anyway, it just being a question of price (it is only the rights not selling presently). If you don't want to sell, then join the rest of us, sit around and see what happens, as we have no control over the situation. Blis isn't following a perfect strategy, nobody ever does, but it is one that seems to make a fair amount of sense and so far seems to be making good progress and there's really no chance of them changing it much in the mean time anyway.
Incidentally, I am not a defender of Blis. I simply report what I see so others may disagree and thus we may all come to some sort of better understanding of things. It just happens that I do not personally see a lot going wrong here, and I see quite a bit going right.
We have now a pretty good idea of the BLT business situation from the Pref share issue prospectus.
Interesting BLT is researching 'wet' products such as toothpaste ...but plenty of warnings about insolvency risk too.
Looks okay to me overall ...good enough to accept the offer and take the high level of risk, but I'm cautiously optimistic these days unlike two years ago when the BLT future looked so bright! Commercial reality blunts enthusiasm.
Frutarom's press release page is here:
http://www.npicenter.com/listings/Co...x?companyId=23
Three out of the ten press releases from the date of the original annoucement are about BLIS K12. For a company the size of Frutarom, BLIS K12 getting so much attention strikes me as significant.
These press releases are also published on a number of other websites.
It appears that Frutarom really are making an effort to sell their new product, and based on the update given at the Shareholders meeting they are continuing to make progress.
I would like to think getting into bed with Frutarom will prove to be the best thing Blis has done so far. Only time will tell. In five years time our BLT shares will either be worth many, many times what they are today, or nothing...
Yes, long term outlook looking good, but I am pretty hopeful of results for the next year or two regardless. Barry has basically built a multinational from scratch over the last couple of years, which is pretty extraordinary. The large scale of the rights issue seems to have come from that urgent push to growth.
Blis is in the LifePharmacy flyer now too, for Throat Guard Boost, right next to Coldrex. The sales message is "ideal at times of high need for families, kids at school, and people in the workplace when others are experiencing sudden poor throat health, particularly at the start of the winter season." Effective photo too. Now, that seems likely to draw some sales. LifePharmacy seem to have 25 or so shops in most big cities. So, NZ marketing is picking up finally.
I saw that as well. I'm pretty sure it came in the Dom Post in Welly this morning. LifePharmacy also has an online presence.
Personally I won't be buying any on their website. PharmarcyDirect ( https://www.pharmacydirect.co.nz ) is far cheaper!! BioRestore $15.95 vs $26.65. ThroatGuard $14.99 vs $17.99(on special).
Still, the more outfits selling it the better it is for Blis. Selling is the key word here, not just stocking...
You know, despite the financials looking so good for Blis now, my driving force still remains that I so much admire the product itself, I really want it to succeed in the world. Blis are pushing "superior non-prescription oral and throat product available in pharmacy" (recent paperwork) and they're doing it because they have proof. What a fantastic gift to the world. I'm glad I have shares in this company, but I'm also glad I have use of the product.
In a world drowning in future doom, Blis (and hopefully other probiotics) represent plain unadulterated good news. People will be able to protect their good health at cheap cost. It won't solve the world, but surely it will save many many individual people from awful health problems they couldn't otherwise afford to cope with. And probably they will never realise the trouble they got saved from.
The fact you people are celebrating when you find a BLIS advertisement is unbelievable. No one when talking about a major company says something to the effect of 'I have discovered an add in such an such a magazine from company XYZ'. Whoopdedoo. An advert shouldn't be a reason to invest. The lack of advertising should be a reason not to invest. Did they spend the $65,000 marketing budget on that add?
Darn it. I never saw it! I wish I had though. Maybe someone could take a photo of it and post it on this website. That would double the amount of coverage the BLIS product actually gets.
Reviewing the front page of the 2008 Annual Report: "Keep watch in stores for our slick new range of packaging". This is the most corny and stupid thing to put on the inside page of an annual report. They seem put more emphasis on marketing to shareholders than to the public. Is the packaging more important than the product?
Way back on page 7 of this forum - back in 2007! Investors such as Impatient were putting pressure on management and board. Not many agreed. 2 years later and we are in an even worse position. Surely the management and board have to take some responsibility for the absolute destruction of shareholder value over the past 2 years.
I dont know if you people have ever shopped at Health 2000 but what do I find is a big advert for a product called "BowelBiotics+" with a beautiful looking slim blond woman doing yoga. Ok, her intestines are a little discusting - they didn't need to show us them. Now $24.90. Great advert, easy to understand, and from the looks of it a competitor.