Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?
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Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?
Huang Chung - "Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?"
It's like this Huang Chung, no one, absolutely no one ( I'm talking about Nickel company CEO's and guru's ) has ever as far as I know, got close to predicting the nickel price. It's unpredictable! The devils metal [}:)]
I could be right or I could be wrong, but on Friday I dropped off all my Nickel Stocks after closely studying the LME Nickel historical charts on stock levels and price.
I blew it 6 monthes ago with PEM and CBH, because I reacted to slowly to the Zinc charts.
Cheers [B)][}:)]
P.S and it was before I read the below this weekend ;)
There's trickery in base metals gameBRIAN MILNER
Globe and Mail Update
E-mail Brian Milner | Read Bio | Latest Columns
June 8, 2007 at 7:03 PM EDT
Anyone who spends a few minutes chatting with David Threlkeld will come away convinced that the overheated commodities market — or at least the base metals chunk of it — is about to blow up and that any investors who stick around are about to lose their shirts.
What happened to nickel this week only confirms his gloomy assessment, based on personal experience as a long-time metals trader and adviser, that the market is essentially rigged — and not in favour of ordinary investors.
Nickel futures plunged nearly 6 per cent Thursday on the London Metal Exchange and another 1.4 per cent Friday to close at $42,300 (U.S.) a tonne, well off the record $51,650 reached in May.
Some analysts offered the usual explanations for the sharp reversal of fortune — weaker demand, higher inventories, a long overdue market correction. And, oh yes, there was the small matter of the LME's decision to intervene in the market over suspicions of collusion among the small number of players who control the world's trading and supply.
“Everybody loves to play games. And at the end of the day, you run out of room. We've seen it time after time,” says Mr. Threlkeld. Today, he runs his own trading and consulting firm in Scottsdale, Ariz., but he is best-known for exposing a multi-billion-dollar scam to corner the copper market when he was a top-drawer trader in London back in 1991.
Are we witnessing more manipulation at work? Definitely, he says resignedly, and not only in nickel but the other base metals as well.
“You have all these metals at absolutely stupid numbers, which is unsustainable. And the question is: When reality returns, does it return in a week or a year?”
Here's how Mr. Threlkeld views what has been unfolding in nickel. Producers, hedge funds and other key participants have driven prices up and kept them artificially high, in part by withholding nickel from the market and squeezing short-sellers.
The LME has rules against such manipulation, requiring holders of the metal to lend it back into the marketplace when stockpiles reach a certain level. This week, it changed those rules to cut the amount that can be kept out of the market.
But no one, including the LME, really knows how big the nickel and other metal positions actually are, because a lot of the trading is done “over-the-counter,” says Mr. Threlkeld. “You can only try to guess what exposures are, and you've got no idea what bank exposures are in derivatives or guaranteed prices,” he adds. “My sense is that the LME has one foot on a land mine and one foot in a trap.”
The commodities market has never been for the faint of heart. And even such perpetual bulls as Jim Rogers acknowledge that a correction in nickel and other base metals has been long overdue.
“Something that has gone up that much that fast often has a significant correction. So it would not surprise me at all if nickel went down 50 per cent.” That's not a prediction, Mr. Rogers hastens to add. “I'm just saying that nickel is overdue for a tidy correction, given the scope of what's happened.”
Even after the recent selloff
So Tricha, I guess we'll all have to get used to you being an oiler for a while (plus some updates on Goldstream and Territory Iron of course). :D
Shocking ramping in my opinion , no doubt you are now short metals and are bombarding not only this board but the australain chatboards too . I npoticed your posts on hotcopper site
tend to agree...
the poster concerned posts the below on the 3rd
""So upside for most nickel producers to maybe double again in the next 12 monthes and give some of the penny dreadfuls time to become multi baggers, E.G AUZ, CUL, TTR.""
by the 8th we have a wee u - turn....
""Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits""
and by the 10th we are advised.....
""You do not have to be a rocket scientist to work out Nickel stocks are rising and the price is plummenting.""
what a difference a week can make hey.!!
I think you fellas are being hard on Tricha. At 1099 posts he has a lot to say. We all know what a difference a week can make in this game and all regular posters who post daily are posting their thoughts for that day. Having a change of mind and posting it is hardly ramping but keeping a change of opinion to ones self could be.
I think as long as tricha has declear his position (in this case sold all his metals) will be a fair call. We the reader had to formulate our own view on it, considering he is coming from a different footing than those who still holds them.
Disc: Hold BHP/MCR/ZFX/RIO in resources
Crikey - Nickel down 5.8% in early trade.
Its really finding it hard to find a bottom over the last week.
Yep, Smell that coffee!
Strat - "We all know what a difference a week can make in this game" Exactly.
Viking - "We the reader had to formulate our own view on it"Exactly, some people are still in kindergarten.My spelling is pretty bad, but really australain :(
Some people know whats going on and some people do not have a clue.
Hint - Rule # 3 learn the business! ( we are in the speculative metals market, not the banks or ..............)
Rule #1 "Never lose money"
Rule #2 " Never lose money"
Kate Haycck
Tuesday, 12 June 2007
MINERS and some analysts are tipping a continued bullish outlook for nickel despite its dramatic price fall on the London Metal Exchange last week.
Between Monday and Friday, the spot price of nickel tumbled from $US50,125 per tonne to $43,325/t on Friday, the metal's lowest price since February.
The price began sliding before the LME announced its new trading rules but it was the change in the way nickel longs can be traded on the exchange that prompted the dramatic sell-off in the metal and saw prices fall over 10% in two sessions.
The metal rebounded slightly in last night's trading on the LME and the spot price closed at $43,475/t, a gain of 0.35%.
Analysts said the trading session was quiet and cautious, with investors still watching the metal's price carefully.
One analyst from a major Australian bank said the market was still trying to find an appropriate level after the changes brought in by the LME, with current trading more associated with manoeuvring to reduce the impact of the new regulations, rather than any market fundamentals or massive changes to those fundamentals.
"This process will probably take a few trading sessions to work through," the bank added.
Nickel stockpiles are still at record lows on the LME at around 8880 tonnes, up from 8856t last week, a rise of 0.3%.
This level is still half that of the 52-week high of 16,980t, and many analysts are pointing out that this tightness as yet shows no sign of drastically easing.
"People are still talking in negative terms about the future, but in the near future there is still tightness," one trader told Dow Jones Newswires.
"There's been no panic in nickel. It had to move down, but I've not noticed a situation where everybody is selling."
Certainly, established and emerging nickel producers in Australia are keeping their eyes on the upside.
Mincor Resources director of exploration Jim Reeve told MiningNews.Net that the company saw the fundamentals for nickel as remaining very strong.
"We expect the demand for stainless steel to be quite strong. The demand for stainless steel, the demand for iron ore, is still going through the roof. That indicates [the current price falls] are probably only a temporary sort of lull," he said.
Reeve said the market's sell-off was due more to sentiment than any real technical impact.
"Stocks have risen a little bit, up to 8000-9000 tonnes, [but] that's a slight rise and it's still a very small total stock," he added.
"I think, realistically, not many people would expect the price of nickel to stay where it was two weeks ago, forever.
"The question is whether there's a soft landing to a new sustainable plateau at a higher price, which is what everyone is predicting, or worst case scenario, a huge collapse. And I don't think anyone is expecting a huge collapse while everything seems to still be booming in terms of the steel industry.
"The price is still very high, even at the current price, and we're looking at a break-even price way, way below the current price.
"I think nickel producers have never had it so good. I think the realistic longer term players don't expect it to stay where it is, but I think we might see it strengthen again," he said.
Reeve also added that from his perspective, predictions of the nickel price settling to around $30,000/t were realistic and "perfectly reasonable", with the caveat that predictions are inherently difficult to make.
"A lot depends on the buoyancy of global economies," he said.
"We're still positive about the price but maybe not at these absolutely stellar levels."
Julian Hanna, managing director of Western Areas, one of the newest nickel miners in Australia, was also keen to downplay the pessimism surrounding nickel this week.
"I think all the negative talk has been grossly overdone. There's certainly not enough nickel to keep the nickel smelters going and supply the stainless steel industry," he said.
Recent news of South Korean giant POSCO developing