4-6x multiples are really really generous. My alarm bells go off when people throw around 10x multiples let alone 100X multiples. Here's a link that I a had already posted on the XRO thread but I see no harm in posting/reading it twice:
http://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/...-revenue-club/
Are there additional blue skies that we can secretly hope for? I believe so. That's why I hold despite feeling that it has gone up too quick for the wrong reasons (I have reduced recently). Here is how I roughly estimate sales to build up:
Nov 2014: 1M or less
Nov 2015: 5M or less
Nov 2016: 15M or less
Nov 2017: 50M and cashflow positive
Nov 2018: 100M
All of this assumes CMS coverage, which is likely but not certain. I find it impossible to estimate how roll-out of the other Cx products will impact on cashflows. Any thoughts are appreciated.