Still trying to make sense out of the TRA trend. Beagle likes to compare it (unfavourable) with CMO - and while I didn't thought that this is a valid comparison (second hand car dealer with insurance and finance vs new car dealer with service) - actually, if we look at the charts the trend at least used to be quite nicely correlated (i.e. markets thought its a valid comparison):
Attachment 10338
I know - didn't manage to get the time axis into the pic, but this is a 5 years comparison starting Feb 2014 and ending Feb 2019. Pretty nicely correlated until May / June 2017. At this stage TRA (blue) started its mercyless decent ... and CMO SP (yellow) kept growing.
What changed in the mid of 2017 uncorrelating these two companies?
Other thing above chart shows is that TRA's SP well might be a cyclical ... with it currently being on a 5 year (cyclical) low. Obviously - given that revenue and earnings don't seem to by cyclical (this is the lower graph) is it difficult to see where the cycle would come from.
Attachment 10339
Blue line: revenue in $m (obviously - 2019 - 2021 are analyst estimates)
Red line: EPS in tenth of cents (just to allow me to use the same Y-axis)
ah yes - and 2012 - 2014 are combined TNR + DPC revenue and income (borrowed from one of Snoopy's posts - cheers!);
Here is one observation: growth was 5 years ago (2012-2014) quite weak (restarted 2014/15) and it is now again quite weak (following potential profit warning and analysts forecasts). Maybe the low SP is just a reflection on low (current) growth?
Who knows ...