"Yesterday, they blamed tariffs - today they'll blame Turkey... Whatever you do, don't blame The Cycle," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
Printable View
Currencies which had great run over the last 10 years are having correction.Quote:
Don’t blame the cycle
Eg: NZD
Some say dovish RBNZ and concerns over European bank exposure to Turkey sent NZD/USD lower. Clearly, there was some weakness for NZD. Only thing is petrol prices will go up unless oil drop significantly. On the other hand export sector will benefit. I heard RBNZ is bullish on the economy but left rates at 1.75% until end of 2020.
As I said Bollard tried that first Western economy to lift rates post GFC from memory ...only to turn around and cut ..
With the Aussie property market coming off the boil and looking a bit suspect , Auckland flat I think we have time on our side ... as indicated by the statement on Thursday .
With the current business confidence do you think it’s prudent to get ahead of the curve that might not eventuate ?
First you have to seriously call into question the way inflation is being measured and the weightings given to various elements of the CPI. Accomodation needs a serious increase in its weighting imo. If this was done you’d see true inflation as higher than currently reported.
Then you have a number of pretty strong inflationary pressures going on..
Large swathes of the working population getting pay rises some of them fairly significant (teachers, nurses..)
Min wage increasing
Petrol price increases both through taxation and low NZD.
They could be in for so some quick hikes when they come or maybe they end up coming sooner than 2020 we will have to wait and see.
Not sure the comment about post GFC bollard can be extrapolated to our very healthy economic state of today.
Yes, inflation is raging at the moment. Throw in accommodation and the absolute biggest drag on the economy, local authority expenditure and the resultant property taxation and other charges, and you'd have a much much bigger inflation rate. My electricity bill has more or less stayed the same over the last 10 years, maybe even reduced a little. My phone and internet bill is as cheap as chips. My local authority rates, however, go up and up and up, over 5% this year alone. Amazing. By hey, inflation is just 1%! LOL