Without going into too much detail - *Expecting* 2H18 to be 20-30% higher than that of 1H18.
Would bring the FY18 NPAT to 26-29m ( +15-25% PCP )
1H19 is expected to be a cracker as well with a boat load of completed villas selling down.
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Opened up an old Forsyth report on Arvida back in the dark old dog days of July 28 2015 (when the share price was 87c)
They gave ARV a target price of $1.14... they thought underlying EPS would be:
2017: 6.6c (was actually 15.2% higher, being 7.6c)
2018: 6.8c (estimated to be 22.1% higher, being 8.3c - estimated on most recent report being November 22 2017)
2019: probably thought it would be 7.0c - in the most recent report they reckon it is going to be 38.6% higher - being 9.7c
Share price barely above the $1.14 they thought ARV would be at within 12 months of July 28 2015 (the $1.14 being on those dog like growth rates as well!)... shoot, must be cheapo
For the record, 1 year later, July 28 2016 the share price was $1.14... imagine if they are right this time around and ARV hit Forsyth's 22 November 2017 12 month target price of $1.61?!
Words can no longer explain how cheap ARV must be
OK running with Forbars forecast
Underlying profit F17 was $23.1 and Forbar guess is $30.7m
That means EPS goes from 7.7 cents in F17 (Arvida report) to about 10 cents in F18 (depending on how they calculated the weighted average number of shares)
Suppose not to bad but if Forbars guess allows for the $9m extra from the recent acquisitions (what Arvida) says not all that good.
Struggling to find a compelling reason to rush out and buy here .....
Don't worry, you're not the only one winner... Mr Market seems to be as well (although slowly coming around)
So I'll put it in earnings per shares so we can see how the acquisition impacts things, per share wise (which is the important part, right?)
Normalised EPS (cps) was 7.6c n 2017 according to Forsyth's recent report, they reckon it is going to be 8.3c a share in 2018, so that means growth of about 10% per share, not bad given a very quiet 1st half, deliveries wise anyway... it is no wonder then that they reckon EPS in 2019 is going to be 9.7c, a healthy 14 and a bit percent growth from the prior year (and in 2020 10.8c a solid 11 and a bit percent growth from the prior year)
Man, 2018 looks to be the quietest year in the next 3 years... no wonder the share price has been (so far) pretty 'quiet' as well... will start making alot more noise (relayed in the form of gains) in the following years it would seem... maybe ARV is just a bit to steady and solid for you to be tempted winner? Maybe a dabble in the famed xero could be better? much more exciting with all the unexpected disruption, announcements and changes etc, much more so than boring earnings per share accretive acquisitions anyway
... oh and forsyth are conservative, well have been in the past anyway... they can't predict when ARV's excellent, and proven (sort of), management will buy another EPS accretive village and/or greenfield site with high quality development opportunities.
The much revered 4-traders have ARV net income (npat) going backwards fir the next few years. Must be wrong - can’t trust free stuff on the internet
http://www.4-traders.com/ARVIDA-GROU...84/financials/
You are excited eh t_j but I still can’t see a compelling reason to buy
You mention Xero, nah not for me but finally extracted myself from FLX with a profit and that now all goes into even more Pushpay ...... much better prospects than ARV and at least the market likes them.
250k through this morning @ 121. Creeping north on relatively big volumes.
Nobody selling now till $1.27 - and even then there ain't many sellers.
You sound surprised winner?
I am sure not... still more than 10c before we get close to a record close, and Forsyth still reckon another good 36 cents can be added to the share price (+ about 5c in dividends) between now and mid November next year, and they are the conservative ones remember... let the run continue.
Mr Market must have decided to read the interim report a bit closer