Originally Posted by
Maverick
After 2 weeks of ENORMOUS effort to figure out what went wrong between my estimate and actual HY results I've made it to the end of the rainbow. In my defence I always stated my prediction seemed too good to be true but I couldn't see where my workings might be wrong... well now I have.
There were 3 key mistakes/ assumptions I made <snip>
IMO is that OCA’ s reconstruction model is too complex for anyone with a real day job to apply the required focus to fully understand it ( those in meaningful employment can always just take Earls word that things are hunky dory, or otherwise follow the directors lead who are substantially buying up lately).
OCAs current overhaul programme is just a beast with many moving parts and with many combinations of deconstruction,revamping, rebuilding methods which all take a lot of separate consideration.
It's not possible to communicate how this complex model works in a chat room using only a few paragraphs at a time, even this post is too long.
One really needs visuals, laser pointers and a break for morning tea to get how this will most likely play out.
For anybody less than “advanced “ in NZ retirement stocks I recommend studying SUM instead. It's much easier to understand buying a paddock and building “monopoly” type units. They are obviously proving an extremely successful model too with lots of history.
So with what ever credibility I have left, <snip>