Snapiti this could well happen....but on the other side we have had a 50% fall at dairy auctions with limited doenside to the NZD. Most of the fall against the USD cross rate has been USD being stonger rather than NZD weakness. Against the pound and Euro there is little change.
On top of this we have record immigration numbers, mostly from kiwis returning home, a pretty sound economy, CHCH rebuild in full swing....all these factors will underpin the NZD. Inflation has weakend but that won't last and we can expect further rises to the official cash rate later next year....
Of course all these things can turn, and even turn quite quickly and as Biker says economists don't have a crystal ball...previous known fundamentals have changed and often are not or seem not to have as much relevance as before....commodity prices and the NZD being one....normally with such a drastic drop in milk payout the NZD would have shed 20%.
But I wish everyone well with this risk in BRL...I might dip my toes in when I have some cash I can afford to lose. But as Biker says, if it comes off, the upside could be very nice indeed....