Perhaps, it seems to be on a downwards trend just at the moment, i reckon there are the following pressures with Down currently winning.
Down - The Earthquake Provision increase
Up - Increase in profit guidance
Up - Pending on market buy back
My gut feeling is that the downward pressure will dissipate before the 26th May results announcement and then the on market buy back will provide some support. As always the trick is to pick the bottom.
But DYOR !!