Now thats an impressive response...go you beauty!!!
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Now thats an impressive response...go you beauty!!!
Well called by Modandm
nice work and value strategy
Sauce
Interesting comments from Fyfe re partnering with more airlines in the NZ Herald today. Any thoughts on which airlines and routes are likely to form part of this agreement?
Edit: Here's the link http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10830584
What do people think of Qantas's and Emirates planned alliance which includes the Tasman?
Should still be inferior to the AIR/VBA alliance but might chip away at it or they might choose to rationalise some of the over capacity out of Auckland to Melbourne and Sydney especially and thus be good for both alliances?
Hi all
If there are some TA guys floating around, I'd love to see what indicators triggered buy signals (if any) for you on Air NZ late august or before that. Even as a hypothetical, I'm keen to use it as an example to learn a bit from, just getting back into trading. Thanks!
Hi ops.normal
I can't see any definitive TA signals in August.
The price had been wobbling around 85--90 cps all year.
There was an investor update on 27 Aug that was mixed, but nothing to account for the leap.
The Report on 30 Aug was very good.
I think that your answer lies in FA, not TA.
Also, I suspect some lucky sods got a whisper ...
This is not a good example to learn TA from. Try tel or fbu.
I am not too active with TA these days, so I hope someone else answers your query. Cheers.
All the TA signals fired buy signals all at once before the market opened (Depth) on the 30th August due to a sudden unexpected fundamental shift in FA occurring at 8.30am (Full year report announcement)......This caused all types of investors (not just FA investors) to enter buy orders before the market opened.
TA showing some sell signals just days before the announcement showing that Mr Market received no leakage of the good news beforehand ...normally, any good news leakage is picked by TA before the announcement with the change of investor behaviour creating buy signals.
Friday's chart (16th Nov) below is again showing TA weakness and evidence of technical disintegration....the question is how reliable is this?? adding to Mondays 19th (today) rise back up 2.5c to 123 the answer may be.. who knows??.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...IR16112012.png
Many thanks hoop.
Do you have a quick and dirty explanation for Twiggs Money Flow?
I have never used it... Cheers.
TMF is an improvement on Accummulation/Distribution indicator ....The AD indicator can be distorted with a sudden large price change (gap) for example a large seller having to ditch then the market price quickly recovers on the same (or next) day....TMF attempts to smooth out this and othersuch anomalies better than what the Chalkin MF does.
Explanation with examples here on Colin Twiggs site
Thanks heaps for that Hoop, will pore over it this evening.
Ops
[QUOTE=Biker] The Air shareprice has always been cyclical. This is very close to the bottom of the cycle IMO
I agree with your comments Modandm.
Bullish comments this morning on National Programme Business from both Palmer and Fyfe. Much more upbeat than the article in the Herald.
I am a buyer at these levels.
[QUOTE=Biker] That was roughly the bottom at 87c. Palmer and Fyfe did give a heads up.
My first post was 18th July, the second, the 31st of August.
Sometimes it is just a matter of eyes and ears open.
So are we at the top. Price seems to be supported by the buyback at the moment providing a large part of the volume. Once that stops, a drop would be expected?
Hi chaps,
well - my charts didnt tell me anything... funny that.
But fundamentally I liked the stock prior to the August 30 results and had been accumulating a sizeable position when the stock was around 85-90c.
I am pleased to say I have more than doubled my position since then including a final top up today at 128c at the open to what is for me a monster oversized position (over 150,000 shares). I have been adding to my op stats tracker and have built out a decent P&L model.
I have been observing analyst research and enjoyed watching them slowly realising how undervalued this company is. They have been beyond conservative in upgrading their profit estimates - glacial I would say. The thing is they are not used to companies doubling profit in one year. The sheer leverage air nz has has and the benefits of improved FX, stablising fuel, 777-330er and a320 deployment, and improving demand has not been well understood - at all. (good - lets us take advantage of the mispricing)
To give you an idea - following the Full year results analyst upgraded earnings to 10-11c for FY13 - despite management saying "more than double(ie.>200%)" analysts gave them about 175% up to 11cps. My analysis came up with about 250% up (15cps). Yesterday management re-iterated guidance AGAIN! and even further gave half year estimate of 120-140m which is 7.5-9c eps for the half year. That means 15c is fair in my opinion (cathay benefit from march), my FY14 estimate is c.20c (subject to fuel and FX). Putting Air NZ on a multiple of 14x this year and 12x next year yields a PT of $2.10 then $2.40 - which is close to 100% upside when you consider you will likely get 10c in dividends this financial year.
My analysis is alot more detailed as you would think to build the conviction required to build this sort of position. I have analysed at the yield and rsk growth trends, calculated fuel expense using hedging stats, and based on my conversations with investor relations, estimated ancillary revenue growth, benefits of Cathay alliance, 777 refurbishment, increased capacity on domestic, likely interest costs and expense based on cash flow position forecast, labour cost, and more.
Air NZ expect to deliver $130m of a planned $250m in profit improvement this year. Another $120m further improvement is expected with 787, and a320 arrivals in the next 2 years, supply chain, and further network re-organisation.
Anyway you stack it PB, PE, EV/EBITDA, the stock is super super cheap. Re analysts - Goldmans upgraded the stock this week and Macquarie did yesterday. Both have PT's around $1.50 - both far to low (still). People are stuck in the past with their analysis on this one.
Look forward to your comments.