Originally Posted by
Aaron
I am just providing an opinion. I lack the time, resources or intelligence to provide balanced journalism backed by facts and figures, but I think the thread was asking for people’s opinions and I provided mine. I would recommend you put me on ignore.
You are really onto Bill English about Kiwisaver but as already explained it was Labour and Michael Cullen who brought it in.
You are right Oil is low, precious metals (gold) not so much, houses -really?? (where is your backing or reference for this statement) look at the reserve banks inflation calculator. 2009 to 2019 a 6% compounding increase in housing. compared to the CPI of 1.5% over the same period you are full of s**t if you don't think house prices have been rising at a rate much higher than the CPI.
When I say "inflation", I am generally referring to asset prices as this is an investment related website. You are correct CPI was only 1.5% for the last 10 years but that is irrelevant to an investor if electronics and clothing have been dropping in price while asset prices have been rising and continue to be supported by monetary policy.
I am not the only one to consider inflation.
To Quote (see post #19) “holding gov't bonds that pay insane low interest rates - what does that mean when you factor inflation? Look at the 10 year bond rates?”
I do only regurgitate what I read and lack the brain power for original thought but there are a number of valuation metrics that indicate stock prices are at historically high levels. Also, you can check for yourself whether companies are cutting or reducing dividends.
You are probably right about the NZ$ we are small fry and with large US hedge funds buying up successful NZ companies and exporting dividends the $NZ possibly won't hold up internationally.
I was thinking NZ govt debt to GDP was lower than some other countries and our central bank money printing might not be as extreme so there might be more reason to have faith in the $NZ but due to our small size that may be irrelevant.
Did you not realise your house price growth for the last 30 years is at least in part to falling interest rates?
You raise a good point (I have chopped up your sentence a little)
"What negative rates really mean is savers of cash are punished and those that borrow are rewarded. Banks aren't going to give $ to anyone, borrow funds from the bank to buy more houses will stand in a much better position than the person that has cash (a solution where the rich get richer)."
I think you have hit the nail on the head with that statement. You own houses and enjoy central banks supporting house prices. It makes you wealthy and you don’t want it to change, perfectly understandable.