Hoop, I am really grateful for you taking the time to share your analysis with us! I've been trying to go through your chart and understand as much as I could but I don't think that I will be able to come up with such a detailled analysis in my upcoming picks—it seems so easy to miss things! Hopefully I will get there one day.
I do always look at the “all data” charts to get an idea of what has been happening with a stock but shamefully the cyclical type of this one didn't strike me. Thinking of it, I guess the cyclical conclusion can only be taken if backed up by the type of the industry, and indeed it makes sense when knowing that salmon can go off the menu as you say. My intent was definitely to pick a growth stock, based on the fundamentals and the catalysts that I have outlined, so hopefully it will fit in your “growth with cyclical behaviour” category :)
It's funny that you're pointing out a cup and handle pattern because it has been described in the book “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard” with “obvious” illustrated examples, but even though they were clearly highlighted in the book, I still couldn't see them... and yours is no exception. Where am I supposed to see anything like a cup and a handle here?? I can't see anything having that shape in the area that you've marked?
Thanks for pointing out the gaps, I guess that's the easiest to pickup here while being apparently quite a useful indicator. From what I understand, the one in July with an extreme volume is a breakaway gap, then it's hard to tell if the 2 last ones are runaway, exhaustion, or even island gaps. The island gap can't be interpreted just now since we'd need to wait for a downward gap (need to monitor this!), as for the other ones I'd pick the runaway one since the volumes were high but not extreme neither as per the previous breakout gap. If we see these 2 latest gaps being filled, this would be worrysome and could indicate a reversal, right? That being said, can the latest gap that you've pointed out be really considered as one? It seems that the candlesticks shadows are not forming a gap?
Just to clear up things about stop losses, what is supposed to represent their price? Am I right thinking that a stop price should be placed at a level where one would expect the price to go much lower if reached? In your example, hitting $4.23 would mean that the support at $4.26 has been broken through and that you'd expect the price to freefall towards the next support level at around $4, which is a larger risk (possible loss) that you are not willing to take? Also, if the support level is at $4.26, is it really enough to place a stop only a few cents below it at $4.23? Couldn't it be triggered too promptly due to intraday noise?
In any case, your analysis being much more convincing than mine, I have updated my stop price to $4.23, which isn't increasing much my risk anyways, so thank you again!
And finally... did you guys really buy that stock? I thought that I've made the disclaimer clear in my first post! :) Next time, you should definitely take into account in your analysis that I've been pretty good at picking losers in the past (and most likely still am) :D