Here are 8 suggested short/medium term indicators that could be used to signal entry into AIR.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR78.gif
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Here are 8 suggested short/medium term indicators that could be used to signal entry into AIR.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR78.gif
I find charts very challenging. And not being able to understand it well, have not used it for my own trading (part-time). And yet I believe that it is being used in automated program trading applications.
The closest to programmed trades that I can get is to place these orders:-
1. BUY AIR @ 82 c and 2. SELL AIR @ 86 c.
"I'm convinced that there's easier ways of making money than investing in airline stocks." by macduffy
Yes the return on investment is low (Warren Buffet made some comments about this).
And gosh I never knew about the historical highs and lows of AIR.
Air New Virgin on the way
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph
The body painted Air NZ people will all of a sudden be an attraction if we have body painted virgin girls
W69 of late you write up`s have increased a large amount with plenty of things happening
good for a MOAN its must be FUN for you..
As to your paper report is a load of RUBISH there is NO reason for AIR to do anything silly like getting Married and to a Virgin just fill in paper talk,, and for your information the
LNN deal never, never gets any sort of mention in AU again just NZ paper TALK..
Have a GOOD day.. BRICKS..
An interesting discussion on Radio NZ ( or whatever it's called these days) just finished, on airlines, especially the NZ scene.
Commentators were very positive on Air NZ.
Good listening but I don't invest in airlines.
;)
[QUOTE=macduffy;265113]An interesting discussion on Radio NZ ( or whatever it's called these days) just finished, on airlines, especially the NZ scene.
Commentators were very positive on Air NZ.
Good listening but I don't invest in airlines.
IF you don't BUY airlines WHY do you keep telling US..
THE tourist figures are down wonder why AIR is only flying one plane a day Sydney to Wellington
NO wonder on the numbers on Sundays they are booked out months ahead so just have catch QANTAS..
Despite the negative news i.e. a lower number of passengers, swine flu, competition from jetstar....:)
I rather like the way the 90-day moving average is inching upwards for the first time in two years, but then, it is off a seriously sick base.
Good to see the price poking through the top bollinger band too, although this has happened 5 times during the same period -- to short-term effect only.
waiting for the trendline break -- moving average crossover would be good as well -- decent volume ditto.
Good on you Scamper. AIR is in a fairly steep uptrend just now, but we all know that every uptrend ends sooner or later. When the time comes to sell, your trendline break is likely to be one of the first indicators to be triggered, but there should be plenty of confirmation at around the same time from the other indicators shown here.
This is an update of the AIR chart posted 3 weeks ago (previous page, post #418). It features the same indicators and time periods. All have worked very well indeed, giving reasonably early signals fairly close together.
Why so many indicators? Primarily to show that there is more than one way to skin a cat. There is no "ideal" indicator and each and every one has its own strengths. weaknesses and characteristics. The fact is that anyone, using any of these indicators, would have traded AIR quite efficiently. They all work well. As you would expect, acting on the first signal to trigger gives the best results, but it is generally considered more prudent to wait for confirmation from a second indicator before buying or selling.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR729.gif
Air NZ shares expected to soar
By DENISE McNABB
In a report Marcus Curley said Air NZ was poised to soar out of the gloomy world environment next year and its share price was likely to rise to $1.35 in the next 12 months and then jump to $1.70 a share.
His forecast is made on the basis of the airline being shielded from oil price rises, international passenger numbers looking likely to increase in the next quarter from -4 per cent to 3 per cent next year and stabilising economic growth in New Zealand during the past three months.
His prediction is in contrast to his colleagues Andrew Gibson and Andrew McCusker's take on a A$231 million (NZ$290m) capital raising announced on Monday by Australia's second-biggest carrier, Virgin Blue, parent of New Zealand carrier Pacific Blue.
Air NZ said the long-speculated capital raising would improve liquidity but the analysts said they were concerned about the risk of prolonged losses from V Australia if conditions remained challenging.
Macquarie Equities analysts Russell Shaw and Riaz Hyde questioned whether the capital raising, diluting existing shareholders' stakes by 49 per cent, was necessary just to improve liquidity when the company was predicting a near break-even performance next year after a A$160m-A$165m loss this year.
They did, however, think the entry price of A20c a share was attractive.
http://www.nzx.com/print/2685055
I've been following all of the Broker reports and Marcus Curley, until recently, was negative on AIR so it's a sea-change to now see such a bullish report.
The stock has rallied well over the last few days, so, maybe it's the start of something big?
Hope this will be a well done stock, brought in at 1.07 with my student overdraft interest free money, $2000.
MY friend is flying back this week end and when she checked her seat she had been allocated a aisle seat when she asked for a window seat NO worry`s it can be allocated
but it cost`s $15 CAN., just little things to COME...
I see another Broker's report is very bullish on AIR, with a 12 month price target of $1.50 per share and a DCF valuation of $1.83 per share:
"Our target price of NZ$1.50 (1x P/B) is unchanged, although forecast revisions boost our DCF valuation to NZ$1.83 (previously NZ$1.43). We think AIR remains in a strong position with minimal near-term capex requirements, net cash and moderate gearing of around 50% (operating leases at 7x). We view AIR as a trading stock for less cautious investors, given the super-cyclical nature of the sector. On our estimates, AIR is trading around 0.73x P/B relative to QAN on around 1x P/B."
Certainly looks cheap compared to its competitors. Let's hope the rally continues :)
I did a day trip down to Christchurch yesterday from Auckland on Jetstar... plane down was the 6.40am departure , about 1/2 full I would say , flight back was 6.35pm which was maybe slightly busier. Return fare was $58 !! ... Hard yakka to make money in the airline market in NZ at present. Nice brand new plane , ontime both ways. Air NZ fare on similar time flights was $398 !!!
AIR closes at 1.18 per share, up 8 cents this week alone!
No doubt fuelled by the latest broker report.
We now have two brokers valuing the shares at $1.35 and $1.50 per share respectively.
So, hopefully more to come.
What do the techies think of the rally and depth?
broker reports are
aspect huntly 1.35 - forsyth barr 1.50 and goldman sachs 1.80.
Factors:
air nz should benifit from continued weakness in USD as a net usd buyer. Will be approaching policy maximums in oil hedge @ 70bbl.
superior management and fleet on the international front - more 777s on the way
continue to be a bloodbath transtasman - rotorua will be good - asians fly into auckland out of rotorua on their nz aussie travels
air nz continue to be strong domestically especially on non - trunk lines
flew to napier yesterday from auckland $170 return similair. no choice no likely competition to enter
new aia management also more air friendly
perhaps the government will ask for a div out of air nz soon - especially as the 787s continue to be delayed.
overall lots of good reasons for air sp increase. Instos are buying.
retail wise i think most investors are pretty adverse to owning airlines based on classical thinking of airlines as dogs.
interesting to see how this plays out. For me it will be from the sidelines:D
Quote: "perhaps the government will ask for a div out of air nz soon - especially as the 787s continue to be delayed"
The government gets a dividend out of AIR every six months, along with all the other shareholders.
thanks for that
im talking a special div. Not to many co's out there sitting on nearly 2bn with no takeover targets
Macquarie have issued a research note this morning valuing AIR at $1.51 and 'Outperform'.
There's a strong chorus now of positive research on this company.
Nice.
Vitamin A question are Macquarie holding a lot of Air they wish to sell?
About time! The "ignorant" market changed its sentiment towards AIR at around 85 cents. Now it is $1.20+ the Bullish reports arrive! Don't those guys use TA at all?
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Phaedrus - you just don't get it mate .... somewhere else somebody said that the techos follow the fundies .... the fundies find value and then the techo jump on board
Are you saying that's not the case -- naughty naughty
W69, if I were of a cruel and vindictive nature I would post charts showing exactly where ST fundies were buying! And that's not the half of it - these guys are staunch. They held right through the big slide......
With VBA most likely off AIR's radar now, what's the chances of AIR announcing a special dividend when it announces its full year result next week?
Havn't seen any report of this in the local press, yet.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0823-ev2j.html
Its on the Stuff website sourced from The Age but with its ties to the Dom Post I presume it will be in today's issue.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...to-cartel-case
any1 got any opinion on sp direction of air sp over coming weeks
currently holding and thinking of selling - closed slightly higer today at 1.26
cheers
It looks as though AIR will crab sideways for a while - it is in a trading range.
The attached chart shows 6 indicators and their associated buy/sell signals. You can see that 4 of them have triggered Sell signals.
In your position of having held through those Sell signals, I would be inclined to make my Hold/Sell decision on the eventual trading range breakout. A break above the resistance at $1.29 would be a Hold, a break below the support at $1.22 would be a definite Sell. If you don't like such an "open ended" situation, you could sell if/when the remaining 2 indicators fire.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIR99.gif
thanks p nice chart - was interesting that the poor results announcement seem to have slowed but not stopped or reversed (up another cent today) the uptrend which was in place. Although as you say it is in a bit or a trading range right now.
does a sp in a trading range statistically most break out to the side of the prior trend? This is what i am hoping obviously. Also AIR is coming up to ex div on monday - how does this affect the support resistance levels? Especially say if one has stops in place.
69% of Trading ranges that are preceded by an uptrend breakout to the upside. With odds like that it is obviously not something you can count on. Note that the last AIR trading range broke down.
The usual practice is to correct for the dividend. This is done by subtracting the amount of the dividend from all historical prices up to the point the share goes ex. Thus there is no "step" in the price plot. All reference points move by the amount of the dividend, but all patterns etc are preserved.
Pheadras a question. You seem to customise the time periods in your stochastic oscillator,how do you arrive at the time periods you use?
Do you fiddle until it fits,or do you have standard time periods you use?
Thanks.
I've been using 22 and 100 day Slow Stochastic oscillators on AIR for so long that I can't remember how or why I initially selected these values. Maybe they gave good results on back-testing.
My overall aim is to run a suite of indicators of different classes with their time periods selected such that they are all of approximately equivalent sensitivity. You can see that the 22 day Stochastic as plotted here is less sensitive than the other featured indicators - it's signals tend to lag behind the rest. It would give better correlation with the other indicators if its period was shortened. This would see it too as having triggered a Sell signal recently.
There is nothing sacrosanct about the 22 day period as charted here. In actual fact, since AIR's reversal early this year, a 14 day period has worked a lot better, giving signals nicely in synch with the other 5 indicators.
Ok, I know the cynics will say that Goldmans are pushing AIR for their own benefit but their Analyst's latest report focuses on tourism flows and the positive impact to AIR:
"A full review of our tourism flows suggests the next 12 months should produce one of largest improvements in demand for NZ international air travel in the last 20 years. We expect 'system' in- and out-bound passenger volume growth to recover from -2% in 2009 to +4% in 2010. We have increased our EBIT estimates by around 4% due to slightly higher load factors, driven by improving demand for international air travel, plus a stronger NZ$. Combining both P/Book Value and P/E metrics suggests AIR is the cheapest major mainline airline in our global peer group. We reiterate our Buy recommendation based on our expectation for the third most substantial improvement in NZ international passenger growth in the last 20 years creating a strong platform for operating profit growth and further share price outperformance in FY10. In addition, AIR has attractive relative and absolute valuation metrics and a robust balance sheet".
Well in NZ AIR is a stand out bet as for the rest make your own judgment , BRICKS picked
up his DRIP shares and cant stop smiling as the world markets are now on the mend
a select few will gain and AIR is ONE...
hmm belg, well yes.
More importantly what is the cause of AIR's recent spike - 120-130 and is this the start of a new trend?
I am on the sidelines thinking of booking a seat.
It seems AIR is still undervalued vs its competitors (QAN VBA) however from recent operating figures AIR has still not started to grow in terms of seats sold. It is possible that revenue is higher though we will find out towards end of feb with the interim report. I am thinking of a purchase in the lead up to this.
Any opinions - and yes I know what brokers are valuing it so thanks :rolleyes:
______________________________
Flamin' Norah!
rpcas -- have a look at a five-year chart. AIR has never been a long-term hold except for the extremely stupid Like Me!! I can't even remember when i first bought, but have been in and out several times, never to great profit, and still have a pawful.
When i confess particularly dodgy sins to a share-knowledgable friend, he always consoles me with some percentage reference to the the stupidity of owning AIR...
There is a received wisdom re shares that swim, fly or grow -- avoid unless you know the industry. imho the words long-term hold and AIR should never go together.
Scamper learns the hard way, cheers.
Hi guys
I rely heavily on TA as a rule, but if ever I were tempted to the fundie ways, it'd be with AIR. The people in charge are remarkably good at what they do and there is a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes. To compare NZ with the other big players, I would note a string of good decisions which should set them apart, from marketing to innovation to fleet composition. Don't forget the regional monopoly: It's a major earner where the Tasman and International is a little soft.
I'd be keen to compare notes with any TA guys on the current situation. I would guess (tentatively, not sticking my head above the parapet) that AIR is still in the trading range, but flirting with the upper limit, and if it pops up through 1.36ish the next lot of resistance isn't until 1.48 or thereabouts.
Cheers
JK
BRICKS returns to NZ 29th April for his winter short break,, just received latest drip again which makes the numbers grow AIR a well run company the plane fare back is $80 dollars for 2
cheeper than QAN..
Air New Zealand response to media speculation
Air New Zealand today became aware of media speculation that it is in discussions with Virgin Blue regarding a potential trans-Tasman alliance.
Air New Zealand confirms that the airlines have been in ongoing discussions for several months but no agreement has been reached.
Air New Zealand will not comment further on speculation related to these discussions but will advise markets as required if an agreement is concluded.
GENERAL: AIR: Air NZ annouces Trans-Tasman Alliance Proposal Media Release 3 May 2010 Air New Zealand and Virgin Blue Airlines Group Announce Trans-Tasman Alliance Proposal AUCKLAND and BRISBANE, 3 May, 2010 - Air New Zealand Ltd (NZSX: AIR) and Virgin Blue Airlines Group (ASX: VBA) have today announced their intention to seek regulatory approval to create an alliance on the trans-Tasman. The proposed alliance will allow the airlines to strengthen their competitive offering on the trans-Tasman and to collaborate on future route and product planning, code sharing and frequent flyer programme benefits. Air New Zealand and Virgin Blue have had trans-Tasman teams working on the alliance proposal for some months and will file applications with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and the New Zealand Ministry of Transport. The regulators are expected to take around six months to review the applications prior to authorisation. Co-founder and Chief Executive......read more
One would have to question why they released the 28th April announcement, 5 days before the official agreement news release ....... We now know it obviously wasn't speculation .....This rumour had been circulating for weeks...
However... well done Air NZ
One would have to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that agreement had in fact not been reached on 28 April.Quote:
One would have to question why they released the 28th April announcement, 5 days before the official agreement news release ....... The rumour had been circulating for weeks...
However... well done Air NZ
But the continuous disclosure rule would oblige them to respond to rumours in the market.
No other option.
The part I find funny is them suggesting that this alliance would result in lower prices for flights. How stupid do they think we are, less competition does not result in lower prices. It might result in lower costs but to believe that will be passed on to consumers is a joke.
I'm with you AN and I didn't understand it - they did mention a 10% reduction for 'SOME' fares....
I have held AIR shares before, at the current price, it does not look appealing.
Can't help but be impressed by a company with the balls and style to do this:
http://www.dearlistener.co.nz/
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/8743/bollocks.jpg
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
lol
She's the sign language consultant (?) for South Pacific Pictures I think.
Back to the future today with rumours in the Aussie press and thankfully a denial that Air NZ is interested in an equity stake in another struggling Australian airline, Virgin Blue.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/air-n...715-10cno.html
Agree - I dont think the government would approve that level of spend.
AIR need an Aussie feeder airline.If you fly from Hobart with Qantas or Jetstar to Sydney they are not going to put you on an AIR plane to Auckland.The other way round AIR can act as a feeder for an Aussie airline.Virgin Blue are stuffed in NZ and AIR will be stuffed in Aussie unless they do a deal with VB.More at stake for AIR. No Aussie feeder means little or no growth for AIR.
I see a deal were VB stops flying within NZ and AIR does not fly withini Australia,but both still keep flying the Tasman.
More good news for Air NZ today with the share price building off its lows in the last few days.
This bit is especially relevant for Air NZ with their focus on North Asia.Quote:
Annual visitor arrivals to New Zealand hit the 2.5 million mark last month for the first time, says Statistics NZ.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10660234Quote:
June visitor arrivals were up 8 per cent from the same month last year, with more people arriving from Australia and a recovery in numbers from China, Japan and Korea. Arrivals from these countries in June last year were particularly hit by the H1N1 pandemic.
"There is also a clear sign of Asian arrivals rebounding from swine flu- induced weakness, with Korean, Chinese and Japanese arrivals up 33 per cent year on year," he said.
The world's best airline has seen off another airline. I was picking VBA to stick around till after the world cup next year but seems they saw the writing on the wall with the arrival of Air NZ's new domestic A320 fleet next year.
Seem to be in a hurry to get out too, giving only 2 months warning. Aircraft to be re-deployed on to the Tasman and back to Aussie no doubt.
Pacific Blue pulling out of NZ domestic flights
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...mestic-flights
Share price has responded too, continuing on its upward trend.
I think it is Jetstar's presence that has made Virgin's position untenable here, not Air NZ. They were getting some traction while Qantas was operating as a full service competitor to Air NZ. Once Qantas swapped to Jetstar, Virgin was always going to struggle.
Now no doubt it will be prices up and service down (if there is any scope left for reducing service standards). Good for the shareholders I guess...
JR for me as a frequent traveller (from a regional airport) have got no complaints about AIR service and pricing. Competitors Jetstar and Virgin Blue only try and compete on the main trunks and you will never see them servicing the regionals (no money in doing that )
AIR has emerged over the last few years as a very efficient airline and with great service. Go fly a domestic US airline and then you will know what "no service" is about.
Note: I do not own any shares in AIR or work for them, but as a constant traveller I think AIR has a lot to be proud of.
I have no sympathy for the foreign airlines coming in to the NZ domestic market, low balling prices and then running off licking there wounds when they realise the market isnt as big as they thought.
Competition in business is good but the playing fields need to be level and the same for everyone. How come AIR cant operate within AU ??? We open our market to "foreign" competition. Australia is not a foreign country but they love to suck the profits out of this country be it airlines, banks etc etc.
I agree Air NZ is one of the best airlines in the world. My comment on service standards relate mostly to ticketing conditions and price gouging of customers that have to change travel plans, not to cabin service or the staff in general. The airline industry as a whole has suceeded in setting abysmally low standards in how to treat a customer - to the point that you can now be treated like dirt and think you are getting 5-star service because you would be even worse off with another carrier.
I really don't get what your beef is JR?
Air NZ's full fare ticket allows you to change your flight for free even after the flight has taken off. Features like that ensure business travelers like myself will pay more for their tickets. JetStar may have squeezed Pacific Blue from below but believe me the real damage was done by Air NZ squeezing from above as it the higher paying customers that give an airline most of its margin.
I am also stunned you think airlines price gouge as collectively (and AIR is only marginally better than average in this regard) either lose money or make a tiny margin on the amount of revenue they bring in. Qantas's underlying profits in the current year after tax was only $112 million on total revenues of $13.8 billion!!
If your looking for price gouging have a look at the airports with their 50%+ margins :eek2:
As the large amounts of silence on the AIR thread shows no sensible people invest in airlines.
Beginning to feel like Snoopy replying to my own posts....
Today's monthly operational stats from Air NZ were very strong including as alluded to above a very strong bounce back in Asian demand. Passengers carried on Asian/UK routes were up 12.2% with a healthy increase in yield taking the Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) for the sector which is the key KPI for an airline up 15.4% on last year. Also in the news today was a tripling of charter flights out of Japan for the summer from 4 to 14.
Overall yields were up 5% and RPKs 6.8% were both up strongly. The load factor at 84% is now so high that to grow further Air NZ will need to add capacity which it has already started to do with its existing aircraft. Many of its 747s have been lightly used in the last year so plenty of capacity on tap. Of course any new capacity after the marginal costs will go straight to the bottom line.
The upcoming result may not reflect this improved operating environment but the outlook with the demise of the Pacific Blue domestic operation and the Rugby World Cup next year combining with the arrival of their new A320 domestic fleet the outlook is starting to look good (insert general airline disclaimers).
Result "in line" with analyst expectations and as a suggested above a very aggressive outlook.
Operational and share price momentum is now strongly positive and the arrival of new 777-300ERs and A320s in the next 6 months should ensure this momentum is maintained.
Highlights
• Normalised earnings before taxation of $137 million, down $8 million
• Normalised earnings after taxation of $92 million
• Operating revenue down 12% to $4.0 billion
• Passenger demand down 4.7%
• Passenger load factor up 2.8 percentage points to 81.8%
• Net cash position $1.1 billion
• Final dividend of 4c per share
To put this result in context, Air NZ earned more from flying in the previous year than every other Australasian airline combined. Qantas & JetStar managed $AUS17m combined with Virgin Blue $AUS20m and Tiger Airways still in growth aka loss mode.
Higher NZ dollar + increasing tourist travel must be a bonus for them at the moment.
New Zealand = cheap for Australians to visit at the moment. It is also possible that those tourists from further afield who are debating the merits of NZ v Aust would be looking closely at how expensive Aussie is right now and choosing to come here instead.
AIR/VBA alliance approved by ACCC just MOT to go. This is a win for shareholders and the public through better flight frequency. Great news!
AIR really pushing as a stock this year - i got some at 1.25 then doubled down at 1.05 and sold 1/2 at 1.34 now 1.47 for a 30% gain on average entry.
I have a hobby interest in planes and find airlines facinating (though not often great investments). I really think AIR is set for a couple of great years with the fleet improvements, new shorthaul product (here) and long haul product (coming early 2011), and the RWC tailwind, as well as VBA tie up. Everything is going AIR way right now. GREAT!! Let's hope management are aggressive in route expansion 2011 with the 77W and the 747 still around.
How on earth did this gutter garbage make Major headline news in a major NZ paper (NZ Herald)
Air NZ - where honesty costs
By Edward Gay
NZH (and Ed Gray) shame on you for giving Air NZ a negative headline spin.
In times of intense competitive pressure amongst airlines there's no need for this sort of thing.
At least the majority of reader feedback shows no sympathy for the family...so it seems there is no marketing damage for Air NZ.
Its low news season Hoop so the media are scratching around for any old story. All the senior journalists are also on holiday so the juniors are running the shop.
In more interesting news, just before Christmas, Morningstar massively increased their valuation of Air NZ to $2.15!
I have long believed that if well run which it is Air NZ is worth $2+ on average throughout the business cycle with a likely reasonable price range of $1 - $3.
I brought a few just before Xmas;Reasons being;I know that most flights are full,and forward bookings are high.With more international flights[Asian and Chinese]there will be more overseas people looking to fly within NZ.The new couch should be a winner for long haul flights,and I expect AIR to make good money selling them to other airlines.However I am sure the alliance with Virgin will give AIR their much needed Australian feeders.Will be of benefit to Virgin as well giving them a feeder from AIR customers.A very good deal.All AIR need to do is add some freight capacity to Australia.
Two announcements today,both positive.
Code share agreement with Virgin Atlantic .
China Southern Airline flights to Auckland will add more tourists to use AIR flights in NZ.
Will be interesting to see if it goes thru 155 resistance ...
picked up some for my folks and some for me just now at 1.44. Surprising weakness on no news - likely some institutions trimming their positions and taking a little profit (a good opportunity to top up). AIR will be reporting in early-mid feb and im expecting good news. Noticed that Mornignstar upgraded AIR a while back for $1.60 to $2.15 which to me seems a little bullish but I do think we will see $1.80 this year. AIR continues to pay a nice sized dividend aswell.
I expect the introduction of new more efficient fleet to largely offset the increased cost of jet which seems a key risk. On oil i think OPEC will be concerned about the rising prices (now circa $90) and be under pressure particularly from the US to maintain cheap oil as to not burn the 'green shoots' and fragile world economy.
I was talking to a tea lady and it seems AIR is awash with cash. They have more staff than needed and many of those aren't productive nor have a concept of productivity. There could be real opportunity to extract more value to shareholders by looking at their internal costs.
What a crock of nonense based on nothing more than hearsay.
Air NZ is an extremly well run company. If they sometimes have more people than they need that is because the alternative would be to occassionaly provide a Jetstar level of service. You don't become the world's best airline and attract growing levels of high-margin business in the front cabins by providing crap service.
I call it good long term management and long may it continue.
It seems to have some commercial nouse. It was cheaper to fly to Sydney this weekend than it was to fly to Napier. Like any commercial glorified transport/flying bus operator they always manage to see a good opportunity to gouge.
I guess that depends on how you define "commercial". Some may say that a commercially run business looks after Directors first. You then create a structure that gives the impression of size - because small equals vulnerable. Any good commercial manager knows to surround themselves with sycophants as a means of job security - you get to keep their good ideas while having many hands on a smoking gun when things go wrong. And where you can't get external growth organic growth is always a credible alternative.
I was flying to Oz recently and noticed 4 or 5 Air NZ staff at the international transfers desk most doing nothing just standing around. Then after about 30 mins most of them were busy checking passsengers for US security laws on the evening flights to SFO LAX and LAX-LHR.
It's natural in the aviaton industry that people sometimes are busy sometimes not... I wouldn't draw much conclusions from it. As for the head office staff - my experinces have been great and I think they have a great culture and good expericnced staff. AIR NZ is a company that people want to work for which is great
Well they' had around $20k of my cash over the last couple of months and thats just on internal flights so I know first hand there is good cash flowing in.
I only fly AIR internally because the competition is rubbish. That does not automatically equate to a well run company. I'm not suggesting they are a poorly run company - what they do they do well - if all you expect is for a bus service running on time in the sky.Quote:
Air NZ is an extremely well run company.
Flights are on time, water is cold, biscuits are easy to say "no" to and Koru is a good way of Sharing The Love by going somewhere else.
I'm not suggesting its the front line staff that are getting fat - its the back office wallahs.Quote:
If they sometimes have more people than they need that is because the alternative would be to occassionaly provide a Jetstar level of service.
AIR aren't the worlds best. Asiana scored that award and AIR got 5th. I haven't been front cabin for a while on AIR but I presume they don't get subjected to the awful rugby focussed emergency instructions. Hearing it once might be worth a chuckle - more than that it is simply irksome. If I hear it one more time I'm asking for a life jacket and a seat next to the exit door.Quote:
You don't become the world's best airline and attract growing levels of high-margin business in the front cabins by providing crap service.
I did very nicely out of AIR when they crashed and burned and looking for an opportunity to get back in. That will probably be when they start to cut the fat. They have domestic tied up but I'll be keeping an eye on international where there is more competition.Quote:
I call it good long term management and long may it continue.
Pleased to say my recent experience with Air NZ has been consistently good. Just as well, as I'm still harbouring some residual negativity due to my experience a few years ago when I had to forego a flight due to illness. It was a no-refund fare but I figured that I was at least due a refund of the GST as no goods or services had been provided. Must say, I wasn't entirely sure of my grounds there but I received an assurance that this would be refunded after reference to Head Office. That's when the run around started and I never received a refund or a satisfactory explanation.
So I'm still gradually "forgetting" that but recent experiences have been good in all respects.
[QUOTE=minimoke;333662]Well they' had around $20k of my cash over the last couple of months and thats just on internal flights so I know first hand there is good cash flowing in.
That is a lot of flying.!! Were the flights pretty well full or not ?
The key to watch for is not fat as you call it as I would argue it doesn't exist. Like modandm I have also spent a bit of time over the years working with people in Air NZ's head office and have been nothing but impressed. They compare very favourably with other NZ head offices.
The keys to Air NZ's future performance are in the monthly operating stats they put out. Look for increasing capacity with stable or increasing margins and stable load factor's (I would argue these are currently at unsustainably high levels).
All of which have been happening for the last 6 months and for the following reasons should continue:
- Virgin Blue's exit from NZ (increased margins/load factor)
- Air NZ's new A320 domestic fleet (increased capacity)
- Virgin Blue / Air NZ trans tasman alliance (increased capacity & load factor from increased Australian and to a less degree NZ demand)
- Air NZ's new long haul fleet and international products (increased capacity & load factor from increased demand)
- Rugby World Cup (Increased international & domestic demand)
- Recovering economy (Increased international & domestic demand)
[QUOTE=percy;333666]Main center flights are pretty much consistently full. AIR pricing strategy is good here for shareholders with only two price options and limited seats on the "cheap" seats. High margin high volume is a good recipe.
Regional centers are generally half or less full. High margin low volume probably works in a monopoly environment.
[QUOTE=minimoke;333671]New Plymouth (regional center) is definitely running on the higher side of half full.
As Jaa has said Air NZ is a very lean mean well run machine, innovative and creative. Profitable and punch way above there size.
Air NZ is (in my view as a very frequent flier) a company that NZers should be proud of.
NB. I dont own shares in Air NZ
Air New Zealand Acquires Substantial Shareholding in Virgin Blue (ASX announcement)
best wishes
Paper Tiger
[QUOTE=Oiler;333686] Thats probably consistent with my experience with that particular destination. Though I'm generally having to fly via wellington so even then they can only half fill a plane with Christchurch / wellington and other feeders into Wellington. I don't know if the oil companies have had or still have a deal with AIR to buy fixed seats regardless of whether anyone is actually filling those seats. Such a deal was done to get people from Ch to the Coast but I gather AIR pulled the plug on it.
i am pretty surprised by this. Not sure what AIR is thinking... I mean they had the strategic alliance on the tasman tied up and when virgin becomes star alliance then all will be codeshares... Not sure what this investment achieves for AIR... I know they have been talking about scale and the need to be relevant and I think this is true but what does buying 15% of VBA do... I would have understood if they had bought them out entirely and gone guns blazing at qantas.
Looking forward to hearing the strategic rationale in the 1/2 year update
Can't help but think the market was aware of this and it may have prompted the fall from 153 to 143 over the past week...
will be interesting to know how mucht they have already bought and at what price as it spiked 10% yesterday. I see ASB has it as a Reduce but the Reuters has most brokers picking it as a hold -> outperform with an average of buy.
Labour is going to have a feild day with this. NZ govt borrows $300m a week but one of their 'SOE' has the money to start buying overseas airlines.
You dont get synergies with 15% but maybe they will get a management contract which will boost AIR's profits??
Aussie is a much larger market than NZ.AIR really need a big "feeder" to grow,which VB will provide.Cemeting this arrangement with a shareholding in VB will give AIR more influence.A board seat would be positive.Makes sense to me.