didnt the papers report that the aussie fund managers dumped mrp on listing , wonder if this will happen again?
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Just a quick noob question here. Anyone knows what the process is for retail investors who bought via the Gov website and don't hold a CSN/HRN number? Will they be issued one as part of the process? If not, how would they attach a holding to their CSN/HRN if/when they get one?
Does anyone know when money will be returned from scaling?
Also, I understand very heavy scaling for instos. Maybe 40%.
Just checked my holding with computer share.I applied for 10,000 direct and have received 9250....Like Percy...happy enough with that.
Fingers crossed that they list well.
Everyone is at same price. $1.00 down, 50 cents on layby
Code to be MELCA
.......even at $1.15 they/we are in for about a 12% return in year 1.........if Im correct??.......they won't be able to resist that sort of annualized return for their clients!! (im picking $1.15 plus day1)
I applied via the website for 30,000 and been allocated 22,750, 75.8% of what I asked for. If I had applied via John Key's rich broker mates (and thus giving them a juicy cut via stamp duty) I would of got 90% or 27,000 shares. This is despite plenty of hints that average retail investors applying via the public pool will be favored over the broker pool.
No wonder why so few people bothered. To many games being played and a lack of transparent information.
When will they learn that if they have to flog off public assets, to do so at the highest price possible and to allocate to NZ investors and institutions first and then to overseas buyers?!?! I was willing to pay $1.6 and have no intention to sell. Hell I still hold all of my CEN allocation from 1999!
No doubt the investment bankers advising the government made a killing for all the self interested advice they gave. Maybe this is what Bill English meant when he referred to helping NZ's investment community... by transferring taxpayer dollars to well paid brokers!
hey JAA........just be thankful you got that number......you shud do all right out of that Im picking. Yes their might be fewer mums and dads into this float but the big players have piled into it I believe.
Have they only been scaled by 10%. I can't find an article that states that. I suspect there is a sliding scale at play. I had no scaling, percy 10%, jaa ~25%.
This article from this morning says:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/meridia...-xxx-ck-147552
"While Meridian will be 86.7 percent owned by New Zealanders, including the government, but it is clear it has attracted larger retail investors as there is scaling back required for some investors, who will be unable to buy as many shares as they applied for.Investors who sought more than $20,000 of shares will receive only 55 percent of what they sought."
Dear balance...well said...it aint rocket science is it.Cheers
Ta Xerof, yup I missed that. Here is an an analysis by Scoop on the scaling.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU131...-unbundled.htm
Hmmm I got scaled back...so maybe we may see a lift in price on debut to satisfy unfilled demand
Does anyone have an opinion about MRP... Will it receive a MELCA effect ??????
According to the mail I received, you have been allocated exactly according to the sliding scale:
How your application will be scaled: You will receive: First $2,500 The full amount you asked for From $2,501 to $10,000 90% of what you asked for From $10,001 to $15,000 85% of what you asked for From $15,001 to $20,000 75% of what you asked for From $20,001 55% of what you asked for
I think we can thank the instos for forcing down the price of MRP and thus set up a bargain price for MEL......in my opinion their ploy has worked!! Expect to now also see a steady recovery in the MRP price from today.
I expect you will have new indicators to add to your charts.
Rainfall in each company's catchment area.!!
Rainfall relative strength.Rainfall volume,maybe a rainfall 30,50 and 100 day averages,and rainfall MACD.
I expect you to be the first with such detailed charts.!!!!!
Irrigation again.
From Port of Tauranga agm.Timaru Port's growth.More large irrigation schemes are being built in the area.
More electricity for 'well placed' Meridian to supply.
I hope Mighty River recover. I held mine and am still waiting for them to lift!
I've never owned installment shares before. Will the quoted selling price be at $1.00 + / - market movement or $1.50 +/- market movement?
I guess it's at $1.00?
My understanding after talking to a broker is that Treasury still wanted and advised English to set the price at $1.60 per share and there was more than sufficient demand to cover the IPO.
Common sense prevailed but institutions were severely scaled back.
The scene is set for Meridian to debut at $1.10 to $1.15.
Cant access it. I ilke gaynor but like sheather hes promoting himself to the "mums and dads" with the constant insinuation "its too hard, too risky too complicated , trust me with your funds youll be right with me" ( i'll get the fees hee"). And he is an ok fund manager although i havnt checked all his fund performances
While new irrigation capacity is being installed it has a different energy usage profile than a lot of the installed capacity. It would be unwise to assume that electricity usage would increase in lock step with irrigation capacity increases.
A lot of existing irrigation uses deep bores with high energy input submersible pumps bringing water to the surface, pressurising the water distribution pipes and the irrigators themselves. A lot of the new capacity is take off from rivers and is distributed by gravity fall. In addition most new capacity uses pivot irrigators which are designed to operate at lower water pressures.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ore-affordable
This is of interest. Out of reach of many, but a consideration I have for my own place. Not a bad return on investment in my eyes. A consideration for all who invest in electricity generators. Lowering the price of producing your own electricity. Something that could influence the return power generators receive. I consider it like a car, years ago, one car was a real luxury for many families, now, it is common for most family households to have at least 2. Same goes for electricity production. And even then, the true efficiency that could be achieved if other technologies became main stream, would be enormous. Forget about your energy saver bulbs... start looking at heat recovery and heat exchange. I am all for reducing consumption on non renewable resources (coal in this case).
ill stick with my earlier post 20c in it + divs after 18 mths more if nat win election
I think MELCA will list at a premium but like MRP will they shortly thereafter drop below issue price?
I doubt it, being installment receipts and with such a relatively high dividend yield, and being issued at a much more realistic price than MRP.
I'm planning on holding these for the yield and possible uptick on another National led Government.
I would consider getting out if Lab/green re emphasize their energy policy, campaign on it and look like they may get over the line. All doubtful IMO.
Disc. Hold quit a few so I'm biased.
Apparently David Cunliffe won't commit to the electricity buying authority saying instead that Labour would look at it once elected. Seems an odd backdown or fudge - anyone know more?
Good thoughts F4T. My bro has just got back from England and couldnt believe the number of solar panels on Houses(subsidies?). I guess being lucky; having a North facing roof is necessary to convert enough energy too. Must be good feeling too knowing if the GRid goes down , your comforts and necessities don't.Thinking Global acting local.
has that been quoted anywhere. They have been strangely quiet this IPO
if it goes down during the day. Otherwise you need to consider some kind of battery storage for nights:
http://vector.co.nz/solar
Parker was dead against it until Shearer came out with Russel Norman in favour of change. It was a political stunt to derail the partnership floats. It cost the taxpayer, but should benefit investors because the proposal will probably get quietly forgotten. Anyway, National has an excellent chance of winning a 3rd term.
Honestly this quite depressing....why on earth cant the labour party muster sufficient political/moral/economic grunt to be a true rival to the nats...do not get me wrong here..Im a nat...BUT I do not always agree with JK et al...i.e. imported trains....retirement age etc....
if labour/green MPs can have a disclosure their holding regarding MRP and MELCA could help them gain some support percentage.
Sell sell sell. Meridian are spilling water at the dams in the Waitaki.
My informant ruefully commented that previously he regarded water rushing down the spillway as a spectacle. Now he is a shareholder he views it as liquid money going to waste.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Yesyesyes like your own sacred personal reservoir of inner essence never never never , spill a drop!!!.EVER....
Cant get onto NZX. Anyone else having a prob.? Alot of int in listing and NZX overloaded maybe
Ive got the same problem..
Im in now 8 9 10
I am excited, hopefully we will hit $1.10 before trading closes.
Well closed the day at $1.077 and didn't get to $1.10. Since I didn't stag this float I'm pretty happy so far with that. Might get to over $1.10 over the next couple of weeks so I might still rue my decision.
Pretty good day for IRD - collecting all that tax on the $289m worth of trades. It would be even better if they charged GST on transactions. And of course, as per usual who are the real winners - the brokers. I bet they are swilling the champers tonight and toasting the National government once again.
I doubt that very much. A lot of it will be foreign and so they will not pay tax here....
As for GST on transactions... the sharemarket would grind to a halt and there would be zero trading. Imagine having to pay an extra $150 (GST) on a $1000 buy or sell order...
Looks like about 21% of the instalment receipts floated were traded today!!
Yes imagine. We have learnt to cope in the property market but I keep forgetting the finance industry is the other group of special people in nz.Quote:
As for GST on transactions... the sharemarket would grind to a halt and there would be zero trading. Imagine having to pay an extra $150 (GST) on a $1000 buy or sell order...
Edit. To be clear I meant g s t on commissions
Week edison had them valued at 1.70 to 1.86
Do people really give much sway to Edison valuations? I have seen a lot of people post on here quoting "Edison", but in my opinion, they are often very far off the mark. I mean they value CRP at something ridiculous like $2 per share.
p.s thanks for clearing up the GST bit on commissions Minimoke, I was really getting concerned there ;) I could well live with that yes, but it would not change anything for the punter, in fact it would probably make it more expensive for us as the brokers/fundies just pass on the costs.
When I participated in the Telstra IPO I made profit for NZ at the expense of Australia. Swings and roundabouts I say.
Would never work like that blackcap, and why the heck should financial services fees be exempt? Nobody has ever offered the Hog a reasoned argument as to why this is so.
It would only ever be on the brokerage, so more like $4.50 for a $1000 purchase.
Not so bad when we're looking at the right figures eh?
Quote from David Cunliffe on Firstline just now. I did not know he was such a blatant liar. What an idiot: "The number of Kiwi's owning meridian has gone from 100% to about 2%"
You better check where you get your figures from.
I guess we could argue even less. Say 4.4m NZ’ers. 66,000 retail investors at listing equals 1.5% own Meridian. Say half these sold out yesterday. That leaves less than 1% of NZ’ers actually having a voting right in Meridian.
Kiwis never really owned Meridian in the first place. Sure tax payers paid for it but it was basically held on behalf of Kiwis or overseas business to some extent if you take Tiwai into consideration.
Good point tho. Selling something we all own to an elite few; us.This will come back on National and swing some votes.
come on Minimoke. You really do not think half of the retail investors sold out yesterday do you?
Cunliffe is not comparing apples with apples using your logic. If its under 2% now, it was never 100% in the first place.
Blocks of 10 million, 5 million, 3 million etc were traded frequently. Somehow I do not think this was retail investors. I believe of the 268 million shares that changed hands not more than 30 million (but that is being very generous) were retail sellers. On the other side, retailers would have been buying as well. (although not as much as institutions. The same NZ institutions that are buying on behalf of Kiwi Saver and other NZ super funds.
That's just a nominal value and we have seen quite a variety of calculations on the worth of Meridian.
The bottom line is that the real worth of a product or service is what the market is prepared to pay. Clearly, the market do not value Meridian as worth $1.70. This could however change in the future, especially subsequent to the additional $0.50 being paid by investors.
1.08 Depth resistance nibbled away pre open
Now into 1.09 -1.10 resistance zone .......if this zone gets nibbled away MELCA will rise up to the next resistance at 1.15.
Minimal downside atm great support building up at 1.05..
No need to stag this stock as its potentially rising with a safety net at 1.05.
Disc: holding
good early support my 20c + divs looks good at this stage
The PV of 50c in one year at 10% is 45c which makes the market value of the share $1.55.
Devon puts the value of MEL at $1.10 with a Labour government and $2 with a National govt after next election. I guess that means there is a 50:50 chance of Labour getting in and implement which seem to high (even if they do get in, I dont see them implement as previously set out).
Cool, my refund for the scaling just came back, so much for the whinging about them holding on to it for two weeks!
50c to pay on a share in 18 months in my mind makes it effectively worth more that 50c today. It is a payment to be made, not money to be received, in 18 months, so in effect PV is greater? Interest free money loaned today must be worth more than when it must be paid back in 18 months
Sorry Biker but CJ's approach is the correct one as to valuation. The 50c liability in 18 months is only worth 45c today so Meridian is trading as worth $1.55 or thereabouts.
Think of it like this - if you have to pay me 50c in 18 months how much would I accept if you were to settle the debt now = c. 45c as I can then invest that 45c and it would be worth 50c in 18 months time.
You need 45c now to make payment of 50c in 1 years time.
I think what you are saying is you get the benefit of that 50c for 18m but that benefit should be factored into the value of the IR. So if I had to pay 50c today rather than in 18 months, I would only pay 1.05 for the IR, not $1.10.
Can anyone else confirm bikers or my logic? EDIT - thanks Arbroath
That is almost certainly an ANZ issue rather than a Meridian one - ANZ had problems last night http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-bank-payments
So what about another factor. At the moment the. 50 is an outstanding debt and is 1/3 rd the listing value. Let's just say labour gets in at next election and the CA tanks to 0.50. Your debt is now 50% of the value. Would this change your valuation?
I think people are making the mistake of trying to value MEL starting with the installment receipts. What you need to do is start with MEL the company and give the entity a valuation. Say $1.50 for arguments sake. Then try and work out for yourself what an installment receipt is worth. Now if the company is worth $1.50 in your eyes you see that you need to pay 50 cents in 18 months time. So what are you prepared to pay now for this installment receipt that effectively is a call option on the MEL share. Ok if I pay $1.00 +.50 = $1.50, I pay nothing for the 50 cents that I have effectively borrowed. So I am prepared to pay a bit more than $1.00 for my option. So I work out what this 50 cents is worth to me in the 18 months that I do not have to use it. I could bank this 50 cents at say 6% (mortgage interest rate seems appropriate enough) for 18 months and in todays dollars this is worth roughly 5 cents. So I am prepared to pay up to $1.05 for my installment receipt if I value the MEL entity at $1.50.
There are off course other factors at play but basically this is why the MELCA at 1.10 values MEL at roughly $1.55!
Agree completely with your approach. (though I disagree with the use of the term 'call option' since it is a requirement, not an option)
The question therefore is what is the correct value for the share, not the installment.
Based on your fact scenario, the value of the share is only $1 due to Labour being in power, so working out the value of the IR from there, it is valued at ~50c since you still have 50c to pay.
Thats right, it is a requirement isnt it. But what would happen if the MELCA's trade at under 0 cents then? Would you really pay up if the installment receipts "expired out of the money". Can anyone help as to what really would happen in this unlikely scenario?
Or do MEL come around with the debt collectors?
I do remember the old USB warrants on AIR, TEL etc would roll over into new ones with a lower "strike price" but yeah effectively you still had to pay up.
NOt sure if it is MEL or the Govt but some one does. If you dont exercise, they will sell on your behalf and then seek any shortfall from you. I guess this comes into play only if the IR trade below 50c as otherwise, they will recoup enough from the sale of the IR.
I remember the last lot of Infratil warrants I had, they just lapsed, were never offered to me at a cheaper price.