Two competing statements right there.
Printable View
Snippet from Craigs , thankyou.
10 US recessions since 1960.
Number of months from peak to trough average, 14
Number of months to recover from previous peak 39
Returns from bottom
1 month 12.2%
6 month 29.4%
12 month 39.1%
I'm still waiting for a bottom but I am watching some 10% jumps in prices today so wonder if yesterday was the bottom. I need to go away and calculate value rather than watch prices.
Thanks JT if I take the average 14months then I have twelve left before the bottom. Are we really not going to have ANY businesses fail due to Covid-19?
In a 12 month horizon, they could give quite a good return for patient investors. In a situation like this we can postpone lot of things but we can’t postpone day to day things that we need. Globally, strong Demand for these types of stocks began from last week. Some of them have rebounded by 30% now.Quote:
Black Peter said.
This is the time to buy solid and well established companies making stuff (or providing services) people need.
While I have a great deal of respect for Phaedrus I suggest you also contemplate what Ben Graham said. Always have 25% in equities but no more than 75%.
Because sadly most of us just aren't as good as Beagle.
OF course it depends how you want to position yourself , as a trader or an investor.
This one is unprecedented though so those figs may be meaningless and the drop has been so swift, im reading the velocity has been -37% (fall per month)so far , the 87 crash velocity was -16% the GFC -4 %. I guess the recovery when it comes(who knows) may be similarly paced to the upside.
Beware of the Bear Market Rally....
A very good read >> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/on...r-market-rally
If you could ring the bell for me that would be great. So far it has been historically big with central bank responses historically big but this has been the cycle since 1987.I am not saying this crisis will be like all the others but this article had an interesting chart at the bottom.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/on...r-market-rally
Unsure if that is useful or not. looking at it, if it is a process then there could still be a way to go for the US and therefore possibly the NZX. Big rallies overnight so the bottom might already be in, I don't know. Not a trader, I kept my Mercury, Sanford, Spark and MMH shares on the NZX as I have currency trust issues and don't really know what is going to happen so diversity helps me sleep. Also for my small portfolio I would be described as overweight Aussie gold producers. I s**t my pants a few days ago with them but hung tough although I did not buy any more (sadly) as my gut was telling me to. It looks like gold is really catching a bid.(the financial market equivalent of toilet paper, don't want to be caught without any) It has been easy holding as prices have fallen from a great height but as the arrows on my portfolio go from green to red I imagine it will get tougher. ideally I want to be a lucky investor and to build a portfolio that will help me in retirement (if I get there)
My biggest problem is laziness. I don't enjoy reading company annual reports and then trying to figure out the business and whether they have too much debt etc etc so I will be relying on dumb luck mostly.
Thanks for the chart Saamee
This crash may affect the averages for the crashes. it is also a sort of deliberate crash as government's have exacerbated it by forcing close downs.
I think the OECD had initially forecast a V recession although now they anticipate it may be more of a typical U recession. That may effect the time taken for a stock recovery.
Disc: I have doubled my KiwiSaver voluntary contributions. I am considering a switch back from Conservative to Growth.
With the sheer quantity of stimulus globally this could be a great reflation already. Wish I knew.
Expect equity prices to steeply go up after the volatility has settled in some weeks or months. So, yes - high inflation ahead for property and stocks. The seed for the next bull run has been planted. Lets hope it will have a long life and does not die early of some congenital conditions (like too much private and public debt, for starters).
Warren Buffet studied under Benjamin Graham so i'm quite certain Buffet is NOW putting his cash into working order. Tell me who in the investment community has the patience to sit on 75% - 25% cash for years and years and years?
Unfortunately... your Kiwi Saver funds don't. These managed funds would look like a fool if they held all the incoming cash flow contributions to accumulate so instead, these funds put the onus on the investor by presenting something like 3 options and MAKE THE INVESTOR CHOOSE when to move between conservative to aggressive growth. That way they can't be put to blame if the managed funds underperform or make a mistake. Yet they can charge the nice management fee as what Warren Buffet says, "for literally breathing air".
Worth reviewing
https://www.investopedia.com/article...ral&yptr=yahoo
Saamee you are the only recent poster that comes close to being on topic on this thread (Zero hedge article)...Folks this is the Investment strategies and Secular bear markets thread..Discussion should relate to the secular topics..A secular bear cycle is not the same as a cyclical bear market cycle...
At the moment we are experiencing another cyclical bear market cycle within the present secular Bear Market cycle.
A secular cycle is measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear)..The recent sudden reversion to the Bear Cycle is a cyclical cycle reversion which is measured by the stock Exchange index falling more than 20%..
Wall St has been in a Secular Bear Market cycle since year 2000 ..yes, this current secular bear cycle is 20 years old,
Secular Bears are not feared as the economic growth rate between Secular Bull and Bear cycles are similar but investor behaviour is different..Investors demand "more bang for their buck" during a secular Bear Market causing the stockmarket index growth to be slower than Company growth averaged over the long term..
Basic strategies change with secular cycles..for example did you ever wonder why Life Insurance Salesmen which were prolific during the 1950 1960's went out of favour in the 1970's, the reversion to a secular bear had a lot to do with it...Same thing with superannuation funds over an individuals 40 year working life..The lucky workers that have 2 secular Bull market cycles and one secular bear market cycle during their 40 year working life received a better superannuation than a worker that had 2 secular bear Market cycles and only one Secular Bull Market Cycle
Investors studying Secular Cycles can more accurately predict a future outcome, such as a long period of poor capital growth compensated by higher yield rates during secular bear cycles ..and..long periods of good capital growth with poor yield rates during secular bull market cycles..
Now for the seemingly paradoxical scenario to the investor with no knowledge of what a secular market is....When a secular cycle nears it's end it is the Cyclical Bear that kills off a Secular Bear and a Cyclical Bull that kills off a Secular Bull.
It would be nice if this thread discusses the effect this Cyclical Bear has on this Secular Bear and whether the long term investing strategies should remain the same...
Secular Bear? Cyclical Bull? Not buying that logic for a moment of breath. Let me show you a chart:
https://virtueofselfishinvesting.s3....ons2-hires.png
You say 20 years of bear market? Looking at the graph that level is around 12,000 for the DOW. Roughly we're around 21,000 (+/- 2000 on any given day). If you started investing in 2008, you would be still sitting with considerable gains (roughly x 3 times at today's valuation). You can frame your results by cherry picking any time on the chart. But to claim you can time markets based on when they're in a bullish or a bearish run is hog wash. No one with a degree of certainty can time when the stock market can crash. You'll get lucky ones but they have no ability than to make predictions like throw darts on the board.
We should be clear that this global crisis has been caused by man (just as Buffet always speaks about in stock market crashes, a product of human misbehaviour).
Wise investing strategy? Just buy on the dips and forget about in 10 or 20 years time.
SBQ - both you and Hoop are right but you are talking about completely different things.
Hoops was discussing a secular cycle as measured by the long term trend of annualised PE (rising trend Secular Bull / falling trend Secular Bear).. secular stock market cycles are valuationcycles.
you are talking just about bull/bear cycles ....price cycles
Secular cycles are an interesting study ...but SBQ traders such as yourself are better off not even trying to understand them.
SBQ
Good chart that shows why both you ard Hoop are right
You were commenting on the top part ... price action
Hoop was commenting on the bottom part ...the trend in the PE ratio
Note how the PE ratio is still trending down from its 2000 high ...meaning still in SECULAR BEAR MARKET
That implies that long term expected returns (on US markets) from here are very low
There are indications that NZ will get through the level 4 in around a month with different areas being opened up at different times
Auckland slower to free up
Regions faster which should benefit our exports to pay for it all
Less imports so trade balance shouldn't look too bad
Thank goodness China is getting going again relatively quickly,this should benefit NZ exports
With our exchange rate lower than 2 months ago will we see an influx/flood of money looking for relatively safe investments in NZ?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/op...ey-coming-from
Creating options=opportunity
At this juncture, their publicly traded investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway US:BRK US:BRK seems to offer investors three ways to win.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/qu...of2&yptr=yahoo
Often when you don't know what you should do then do nothing but sit on your hands but read,listen & be ready to buy.
In hindsight, you may have missed some good opportunities but don't kick yourself,we all do that but there will a better one around the corner
https://www.marketscreener.com/busin...8/?countview=0
"Mr. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Warren Buffett's longtime business partner, likes to say that one of the keys to great investing results is "sitting on your ass." That means doing nothing the vast majority of the time, but buying with " aggression" when bargains abound."
"Some of the lessons from the current situation were that businesses should not be over-leveraged, and shouldn't rely on just one debt provider, Orr said."
Good advice !
How many businesses stick to one banker?
"Given the Government had made it clear it did not want to be a long-term owner of existing privately-owned commercial enterprises, that implied "bringing in skills" and more partnerships, he said."
As long as its not the banskters!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...+22+April+2020
Are you allowing algorithms to beat up your portfolio?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-vie...160248892.html
A view from the trading floor: Algorithms having 'outsized impact' amid coronavirus panic
"Computer-driven trading algorithms — often faulted for volatile markets even during the best of times — certainly aren't helping now, Aronowitz explained.The algorithms feed off of each other, creating an environment with less liquidity.
"When market volatility increases, liquidity decreases as market makers reduce the inventory they are allowed to carry within their portfolio," the investor explained."
"Often times, prices need to go far beyond "value" before institutional money is willing to step into this type of market. "This ultimately leads to a cycle of calm and market normalcy,"
For you Hoop
"So now, we are going to have even more zombie companies standing in the way of progress, and Potemkin markets whose prices are meaningless.
That scheme will reward some people. But probably not you.?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...tion-financial
Another person who wrote that article, who thinks they're smart. No one audits these goons because what they say today, will never be verified later on in a year or 10 years time. Like Robert Kyosaki has been saying for the past 7+ years that there will be a mega stock market crash... sooner or later as each year goes buy he will guess it right.
What ever happened to the zombies that formed from the 2008 crisis?
Equities are rebounding because the world gov'ts can't let it fail. You're not going to beat them by going against them so might as well joint them. Oh.. cash in the bank? bonds? = nope. What is left then? No wonder the smart money keeps fueling the stock markets.
Oouch I bet they though their money was safe too!
"Franklin Templeton will wind up $4.1 billion of Indian debt funds after a liquidity crisis compelled the firm to freeze investor withdrawals."
"At least 76 European mutual funds with $40 billion in assets suspended redemptions last month, according to Fitch Ratings.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/frank...035101159.html
Templteton promoted in NZ by a certain broker
I am pleased I got out years ago yudk
This is not an issue of 'too big to fail'. These companies were completely viable before the virus escaped China. All the gov'ts around the world had no choice but to ramp up the printing press while forcing everyone in quarantine.
Really sad is those financial advisors and analysts that get paid for 'merely breathing air'. The NZ gov't implemented an investment scheme that does not account for such crisis so no one else but the NZ gov't should be held accountable for the stock market crash. On the radio today they talked about 1st time home owners can get funds from their Kiwi Saver fund. Not a word was mentioned how bad it is to sell shares in a crash and the when the person walks in the office to their financial advisor that talks about their Kiwi Saver fund, they're not going to disagree about using the funds for a deposit on a home. Is this to say, the investments in a residential home is BETTER than investments in managed funds? Get real here! No wonder the rich get rich.
My father living in Canada had invested in John Templeton's Mutual Funds from the late 80s to shortly after 2000. His returns? Nothing to rave about and despite their fancy charts in their prospectus, they did not show how much the fund was paying in commissions to the financial advisors that sold their clients to buy their managed funds. Hindsight my father should of bought Berkshire Hathaway. I think it's fair to say in N. America where you have over 3,000 different managed funds you can choose to invest in, the vast majority of them DO NOT WORK for the average investor (meaning your working class folk that makes routine contributions every week or month). Yet, over many decades these funds continue to exist and Warren Buffet has demonstrated how Wall Street and gov't regulatories have been effective at promoting it.. selling it ; no different to how auto makers promote their vehicles.Quote:
Templteton promoted in NZ by a certain broker I am pleased I got out years ago yudk
If you sense my tone, a person living in NZ wanting to invest should look at residential properties. If the hassles of dealing with rental payments, upkeep, etc deter the person, then they would be paying huge price by choosing the managed fund route or taking their $ to Craigs, MacQuires, Jarden, etc.
True enough. In the New Zealand environment, successive governments have ensured that property is the most rational choice.
SBQ
Bold statement that they where completely viable before the virus escaped ......
Which companies from the 80's have gone now,all for different reasons?
The point the article makes is
" Financial markets don’t work when people feel no consequences for bad decisions"
From a NZ perspective, this is not to say there are no OTHER investment choices. It seems successive NZ governments have pulled the wool over the public eyes. Bill English brought in Kiwi Saver without even addressing the tax benefit of investing in residential houses. At this was during a time where we had no 'ring fencing' or 'Brightline Test' on real estate assets.
I would encourage those to check out what Canada has done to make houses affordable or address getting 1st Time Home Owners into a home. Today's radio talk on this subject made no mention what Canada has done and instead, just talked about changing the LDR deposit ratio on a mortgage. They talked about loosening up the Foreign Buyer's ban but the caller didn't seem to understand the reason why we had it in place. In Canada the Federal gov't will loan up to 10% on the value of a NEW home for 1st Home Owners. This loan effectively means the person isn't stuck with trying to save 20% for a mortgage when the housing prices over years keep going up (in effect, never getting into a house at all). It boosts the person immediately by meeting their deposit on the mortgage. Re-payment is due WHEN the hold is sold or in 25 years (and is not tagged on as part of the mortgage repayment); the savings to the home owner in terms of compound interest saved is immense and I applaud the Cdn gov't for promoting this scheme. For existing 2nd hand older homes the gov't only puts up 5%. Anyways, a little off topic.
You do realise that it was the gov'ts that caused all this mess? They've destroyed the most critical, productive, part of the economy ; the Working Class. The rich don't need to work, the poor don't work, so what effectively happened? For the majority, all in the effort to save the deaths of the elderly and sick. But no gov't around the world wants to look like a fool, well there were exceptions like S. Korea and Sweden that didn't do a full scale lockdown.
I'll reiterate again, don't blame the financial markets for the collapse of the global economy. We're not talking about an Enron (financial accounting fraud), or the GFC in 2008 where banks misbehaved so how is this an issue of 'accountability' ? No one was misbehaving until this virus broke out and the article is completely missing the point that consequences don't apply if it COULD of been avoided. I have friends in America that are quite pissed off at China for not containing it ; China just played ignorant until it was too late. Now everyone is looking at their gov't to see what they're going to do next. How much $ are they going to dish out and how many of those are going to fight over that money like hungry animals. So in response, the gov't is taking the position that the financial markets must not fail at all costs, even racking up debt exponentially. and gold? lol we're a lot closer to fighting over food than to worry about buying gold.
"The NZ equity market and the potentially the NZ dollar FX market are not pricing-in a prolonged economic recession. However, here in New Zealand there appears to be a weird competition amongst the various economists as to who can have the most doom and gloom in their forecasts for unemployment and GDP growth."
"It is near time for the medico’s, politicians and bureaucrats to step aside and allow our innovative and smart business entrpreneurs shape the new economy with private capital from whereever we can get it"
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencie...ugh-government
Let me pick some quotes from the article: "However, China is back to work and very soon Australia and New Zealand will largely be back to work. For this reasons it is difficult to be negative on the NZ dollar outlook, as in relative terms we are just so far ahead in the recovery stakes than Europe and the US."
The numbers i've seen for China do not imply they are back to work and the public there has lost confidence in Xi Ping Pong. Their central gov't basically is forcing the people back to work while trying to impose some level of normality. I'm surprised that Mr Kerr is not looking from the US perspective, specifically that the US is the BIGGEST economy in the world. What does being the largest economy in the world mean? It means they have the biggest wallet and buying power, in terms of disposable income per individual, no other nation is greater. Paraphrasing, "The nation that holds the wallet demands where the products are to be made". Think about it. How does that affect NZ? Well for the past 30 or so years NZ has benefited from Made in China products because the many brands we see at the retail shops are American brands (or Chinese knock offs stolen from western technology). If the US goes on a trend to move production away from China, perhaps say nearby Vietnam or closer to the US say Mexico, then NZ is not going to get the benefit. Certainly not the benefit that we have a Free Trade Agreement between NZ & China. Earlier in the year GM announced to exit the NZ & Australian markets by winding up Holden. Many big American names could do the same as these corporations scale down and focus on their core markets. On the other hand, if China is on a path of decline, so will their demand for NZ products such as our dairy. Remember, NZ on a whole is only a 2 trick economy. 1) being our agriculture exports and 2) our tourism.
"In my view, it is always preferable to take more note of what the financia/investment markets are telling us about likely future economic conditions than what economists and politicians are telling us."
He has a point, but he's not saying much. The fact is NO ONE knows the state of global financial markets at any given time. But the obvious is that they are lower than their Feb peak and by that metric, if you're investing for the long run (10+ years), you're never going to lose by investing now. However he does speak a bit about the NZ exchange rate but makes no mention of NZ's monetary balance sheet, and in relation to NZ's massive drop in GDP. Investors don't want to hear what happened - as his graphs show and no one cares if so and so could of done this or that - that's just 20/20 hindsight waffle.
"New Zealand has a unique opportunity to sell itself as a safe-haven sanctuary for global businesses – a “Switzerland of the South Pacific”.
Not gonna happen. Just look at the nations with favourable tax haven status? They're usually developing economies or a nation known for shady practices. Switzerland historically use to be a tax free haven but the recent introduction of CRS (Common Reporting Standard - by the OECD group) has essentially stripped their bank secrecy laws. Even tax free havens in the Carribean islands have lost that status due to CRS. Also NZ's image has always been on the liberal socialist side and paying taxes so happens to be part of that model. PM Ardern would know (coming from the socialist Labour camp) and if you want NZ investment, then you need to start thinking more American like. For example, "The deaths of Americans lives over COVID19 do not amount to the cost of the economic loss in society". For the past 2 centuries the US came out #1 because of their model of attracting wealth and skilled migrants. Very hard for any other nation to achieve that status today.
I'm no expert, but I do find the NZ local view only paints a partial picture when it comes to investing. Follow where the rich go in terms of investing? They're investing in the US equity markets.
Another very good reminder about The Bear Market personality...
>> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/le...g-bear-markets <<
The lessons of bear markets have not been forgotten. They're just reflected in the state of the economy meaning, in times of euphoria with record high stock prices, investors tend to have funds for investing. Why is that not a surprise? Hindsight thinking says one should sell at record highs and buy at record lows. Yes the layman person gets that but that's not what happens. In major recessions or depressions, there is simply no $ around for those to invest. If unemployment is at 20 or 30%, that's a fair amount of workforce that won't have the $ to invest. I mean you can't blame people for not having $ to start buying at times when they should. This is no different to the managed funds that make similar claims telling people their managed fund is top performing when their inflows of cash are directly tied to the # of those that contribute on a regular basis.
I use to follow a lot of Zerohedge reporting but their quality shifted towards more sensationalism than being factual. Listen to someone more credible here with Ray Dalio doing a TED discussion online on the impact of the COVID19: (and not some fluff from NZ based websites)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrxYhv2O3wU
Current status of the Wall St Secular Market Cycle (see Chart) and a very simplistic over-review of what the Secular Cycle is all about...
The current Secular Bear Market has been operating since the year 2000.
Even though it is 20 year old it shows no signs that it is near its end..Although this Secular Bear seems unusually old, Secular Cycles are not time dependent. This Secular Bear has to fall below PE(10) and then do a trend reversal before it is considered dead..this indicates the secular cycles are dependent on distance traveled, not length of time..
Because the cycles are secular (very long term), the crises (both booms and busts) during any secular cycle are considered oscillation noise which establishes the downward trend line points..This suggests the GFC and Covid-19 market crises are just corrective actions helping to confirm the long term (secular) downward trend of this current Secular Bear Market Cycle....Debating and forecasting day by day events or any other major medium term period events in length are not relevant on this forum thread..Its OK to mention them (e.g covid-19) as a possible deciding factor in the long term so we can monitor what effect it could have on a secular level going into the future...The GFC did have a delaying effect on the PE(10) primary downward sloping trend and possibly helped to extend the age of the secular bear..However major noisy events are better written up in detail else on the forum site..
So what's the use of Secular Cycles to the average investor?
Its no use at all for short term investor...It is a long term generational behaviour thing. In saying that many investors consider themselves as long term using Buffett type strategies, but in reality many end up not being so..Many are emotionally driven and unintentionally use the unsuccessful conservative buy near the top (perceived safe to enter due to all the good news and employ a long term investment goal only to sell near the bottom suffering losses and rescue what's left of their capital then precede to repeat the whole thing again ...So the secular cycle stuff is no use to these investors either..This is the reason why Secular Cycles are not on most investors radar and by not focusing on secular theme they don't learn or understand how secular works..
Secular cycles are useful to investors that want to understand stock market physics. It helps answer questions that seem paradoxical or a perception that the market is asleep at the wheel..Questions such as of why investors can be so optimistic/pessimistic/ conservative/speculative consistently over a long periods of time causing the valuations to be (perceived) over or undervalued at the time.. like why the PE ratio can stay so low during an economic boom in relation of the PE ratio being a lot higher during the previous economic boom.
Secular cycles are most of the time a generational thing and the behaviour is not confined only to investors but evident throughout the population as a whole. such as being conservative during the 1930's yet were daredevil risk takers during the 1920's..
1....So its about generational behaviour ,,Daredevil behaviour occurs during the height of secular bull market cycles...an interesting correlation is when PE(10) trends up so does the hem line and song and dance go informal .eg roaring 20's the late 60's and the 90's etc.
2...During periods of conservatism, speculation and risk taking are lowered and this lowers the PE Ratio..This behaviour becomes ingrained and can last up to a generation or longer.
3...To better understand the chart below we know with hindsight that it is not all bad news when the PE(10) line is primary down trending..a lot of Cyclical Bull Markets occur causing PE(10)secondary up trends within the primary down trend such as the recent longest Cyclical Bull market in modern history (2009 - 2020)..Just as many cyclical bull market cycles occur in either bull and bear secular cycles..
Understanding Secular cycles helps expose inaccuracies, such as when a long term normal PE Ratio Chart is displayed and the writer draws an median line through the middle then says that the market is overvalued because the PE Ratio is above the median line..
Also a secular understanding helps an investor creating there own superannuation fund or invest in the equivalent like Kiwi-saver..Basically put, these last 2 decades has not been the optimum time to start superannuation type portfolios. Theoretically the optimum time is at the beginning or during a Secular Bull Market cycle...
3...Predicting the future...How many times how you heard "this time its different"..actually it can be true if that time coincides with a Secular cycle reversion..This time may be different, but not unique as it has happened many times before in history but not during the investor adult lifetime..The secular cycle analysis can confirm this and because it is a cycle future investor behaviour can be predicted to reoccur..As this secular bear cycle is still got along way to fall you can predict that the population ( & investors) will continue to increase their bias on the conservative side (conservatism era)..Conservative investors will be wanting more value/less risk for their money therefore the PE Ratio will trend lower creating that invisible underlying downward pressure on stock prices..Stock price will still rise rises but will have an element of under-performance in relation to their fundamental performance..
4...Predicting the future....Secular Bear cycles that continue to have higher than normal PE(10) as time passes on tend to forecast a period (maybe a decade) of low equity growth..Secular cycles whether bull or bear have no significant effect on economic cycles..The economy performs equally as well under either secular cycle..
5...Although stock prices and Secular cycle PE(10) rises and falls often coincide, you can not look at a price index and indicate an end to a Secular Cycle..Cyclical cycles and Secular cycles are determined by different factors/variables..
Attachment 11567
Thanks Hoop
For a minute there I thought we might be getting another bowl haircut like in the Quarantine
http://timothypower.dreamhosters.com...-bowl-haircut/
But apparently not since that was the start of the 80's & bull territory
Kiora.. :)
I googled The 3 Stooges.. they started at the beginning of the Roaring 20's (secular bull)...I was amazed they entertained us for 48 years!! (1922 - 1970)..must had been Mo's Bowl haircut..eh :D.
The Beatles likewise beginning early 60's (secular bull)...:)
The Mullet became famous with David Bowie, Rod Stewart in the early 70's (secular bear)..:p I'll say no more.
You'right Hoop,mullet is still in so definitely secular bear
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/401...goodhue-faster
AND whats more he is a Taniwha. Taniwhas are always right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiwISjvX3mM
:cool:
Blackrock at it again
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-w...70000680.htmlt
If IFT drops again like it did will it get a new bankster?
Hopefully not.Tightly held & managed?
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/.../shareholdings
133
Twenty largest shareholders
as at 31 March 2020
Citibank Nominees (NZ) Ltd 43,571,042
Accident Compensation Corporation 39,075,418
Tea Custodians Limited 38,905,639
JPMORGAN Chase Bank 36,236,013
HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 35,536,795
Forsyth Barr Custodians Limited 28,149,999
HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 27,185,751
FNZ Custodians Limited 26,980,840
New Zealand Permanent Trustees Limited 18,105,636
JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 15,984,268
Cogent Nominees Limited 14,493,930
National Nominees New Zealand Limited 13,193,541
Robert William Bentley Morrison & Andrew Stewart
& Anthony Howard 11,748,820
BNP Paribas Nominees NZ Limited 11,386,872
New Zealand Depository Nominee 8,630,299
New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees
Limited 8,480,666
Premier Nominees Limited 8,220,701
Custodial Services Limited 6,315,800
Custodial Services Limited 6,095,255
Investment Custodial Services Limited 4,170,845
Spread of shareholders
as at 31 March 2020
Number
of shares*659,678,837
Number
of holders
Total
shares held %
1-1,000 2,729 1,428,934 0.2
1,001-5,000 7,118 19,597,364 3.0
5,001-10,000 3,636 26,272,067 4.0
10,001-50,000 4,225 85,597,118 12.9
50,001-100,000 413 28,426,700 4.3
100,001 and
Over 239 498,356,654 75.6
Total 18,359 659,678,837 100.0
* 303 shareholders hold less than a marketable parcel of Infratil shares
Twenty largest infrastructure bondholders
as at 31 March 2020
JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 173,096,913
Forsyth Barr Custodians 161,145,338
FNZ Custodians Limited 110,687,978
New Zealand Central Securities 52,633,625
Investment Custodial Services 38,501,105
Custodial Services Limited 38,158,333
Custodial Services Limited 38,003,016
Custodial Services Limited 29,149,818
Lynette Therese Erceg & Darryl Edward Gregory
& Catherine Agnes Quinn 24,120,000
Custodial Services Limited 14,496,990
Forsyth Barr Custodians 9,413,000
Custodial Services Limited 7,026,500
Rgtkmt Investments Limited 6,250,000
Custodial Services Limited 5,289,000
FNZ Custodians Limited 5,196,500
Sterling Holdings Limited 5,130,000
Tappenden Holdings Limited 3,770,000
FNZ Custodians Limited 2,767,930
JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 2,630,000
Garth Barfoot 2,500,000
Spread of infrastructure bondholders
as at 31 March 2020
Number
of Bonds
Number
of holders
Total
bonds held %
1-1,000 5 4,373 -
1,001-5,000 1,266 6,292,194 0.5
5,001-10,000 3,363 32,342,784 2.5
10,001-50,000 8,636 245,452,601 18.8
50,001-100,000 1,406 115,220,657 8.8
100,001 and
Over 810 904,506,916 69.4
Total 15,486 1,303,819,525 100.0
Right thread for investment strategies :)
Kiora have a look here ..This weeks' John Mauldin Thoughts from the Front Line just about summarizes what this Investment Strategies and Secular Bear Markets Thread is all about. As you read this article remember that the current Wall St Market is in a Secular Bear Market Cycle and has been since the year 2000..Yes this secular bear is 20 years old..
John Mauldin's article shows the possible risks of investing for the long term from now on using the Secular models (charts). His quote (ambiguously mentioned within his Tech sector paragraph) "...At the very least, now looks like a terrible time to buy stocks if your intent is to hold them a long time...."
Another Mauldin's quote which Winner 69 has been mentioning on ST for a while now...
".. The current level of P/E is very high, which portends a decade that will likely deliver low compounded returns...."
Enjoy the read
I have a feeling Crestmont Research updates yesterday prompted John Mauldin to publish this article..From past commentaries it seems to me John has high regard for Ed Easterling's work.
This Investing strategies and Secular Bear Markets thread revolves around much of Ed Easterlings work.
Seriously!!! ..We have been in a Secular Bear Market for 20 years !!!!..Look around we have been in a Bull Market these last 10 years !!!
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Thanks Hoops, so all schools of thought agree that we are, and have been in a secular bear market due to the high P/E, well above the historical average, and not the bull market which I thought we were in. An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality...
Do you think that the more the P/E increases above it's historical av, the more likely that stocks are becoming seriously overvalued, and may need a sharp correction, or is a high P/E the new normal?
".... An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality..."
No No not at all, its very much connected to reality. PE Ratio values are determined by investor behaviour. Reality dictates the cycles and the trends record the changes.
Us Investors are focused on Cyclical cycle investing, so our investment brains are conditioned to cyclical cycle investing.We (de)invest accordingly often dismissing Stockmarket Theory to the stuffy Academics..
Secular Cycle doesn't have events, it has periods....Our Investor brains are not conditioned to Secular cycle investing..Secular market cycles are driven by annualised PE(10) trends (inflation adjusted). Secular cycles relate much better with Stock Market Theory... PE is governed by investor behaviour so with secular cycles the behavior could be generational. Remember your grandparents telling you it pays to save before you buy something so not to have debt...Nowadays anyone will tell you it pays to borrow to buy something,,In a decade or two it will pay to save before you buy again...This is an example of a Behavioural Secular Cycle..
The Stock Market Secular cycle is similar behaviour..A Secular Bear sees increasing conservative investing behaviour and investors wanting less risk and more bang for their buck..This sees a slow down trending of the Annualised PE(10) Ratio.
A Secular Bull cycle sees a slow generational change from low risk conservation to increasing speculative risk taking liberal attitudes and an upward trend of annualised PE Ratio values..
Yes we have seen rising PE Ratio values for a number of years now but on a secular level the overall annualised PE value is down trending starting PE(10) of 47 from the huge 2000 Dot-Com bubble to the now PE(10) of 30 (Secular Bear Cycle)...
Thanks Hoop
The last 10 years.Wow,what a great time to be invested in the SM
Next 10 years agh???
Watching out for inflation
Investments spread over other asset classes a bit of a hedge I hope.(These other asset classes have seen pretty poor returns over last 10 years due in most part to low inflation but also investment behavior I would assume)
Ah ha, got it.
Great explanation, actually understood it! Gives me a better understanding of a bigger picture that I was only dimly aware of. I've got a couple of new things to think about now, helps with the "why".
And as a bonus, I can "entertain" people at parties with my new found knowledge...secular, interesting word...did you know... :)
Alice's Adventures in Equilibrium by John Hussman
Quote: ".....Presently, every one of these deciles is at the most extreme level in history (unlike the 2000 peak, when there was far more dispersion across valuations). This is breathtaking, and I don’t expect it to end well...."
A huge educational read...I have a lot of respect for John even though his fund investment under-performed for a while due to investing in "theory" rather than the crazy world of "practice"..As with other Fundamental Gurus there is a media perception that John is a "perma-bear"
John's fundamental orientation is the basis of his article and skimming through it is very scary....My god look at the size of the Equity Bubble...it is enormous and it's still inflating...
Personally it seems we have slowly moved away from the "real" world and have been happy & content to slide down the rabbit hole into Wonderland where our investment needs are satisfied in the most strangest of ways...
Times up for me to stop typing, and go to lunch ..What a great day, there's a table with a few inhabitants sitting around it..and there's the Mad Hatter....he brews a good cup of Tea.....nice.:)
Interesting lecture - thanks for sharing.
Good to know, however that John has as well only some understanding (well, more than me) about a quite small part of a very complex system following chaos theory.
What he - I think - does not want to see is that human history is not driven by the reality (the small bit of the system I was talking about) he is describing, but by the "incoherent mental formations" he mentioned.
Large parts of human history have been driven by religions and religious conflicts and by ideas and stories about nationhood. Many security prices are driven by stories, and more often than not these stories have no link into reality. Markets don't assess securities according to their earnings potential, but according to their value in a story the individual buyer likes or believes.
A kilogram of gold does not earn me a cent of earnings over time (unless i sell it), and still it has long term a growing price. A Bitcoin does not even look good and has no earnings potential, and it still might have a higher value than the gold I can at least touch. Gold is as well a good example to show that this incoherent value does not necessarily disappear over time.
I think this is the problem of all analysts - we can argue about valuing securities until the cows come home, but what really matters is what another irrational individual is prepared to pay for it. Impossible to predict.
I understand that at Martin Luther's times rich roman catholic individuals paid huge sums of money to receive so called indulgence letters issued by the holy church, promising them forgiveness of their sins for paying money. Just another sort of security supposed to make sure they have a pleasant afterlife and sit close to the creator at the dining table. Would people be these days as stupid? Of course, they are - they are still happy to pay huge amounts of money for something which is - in a system of coherent thinking - absolutely worthless and senseless: Cryptocurrencies, unrealistic valued growth shares, anything where markets pay for a story not linked into reality - and yes, some are still paying money to lying preachers as well.
Johns problem is that he wants to bring everything back to the coherent rules ... and considers the reminder as anomality. It is not. Humans are not made for rationality and happy to value senseless lies. Nobody though found yet a method to predict the irrational valueing behaviour.
Value based on incoherent thinking is not following any coherent rules - which means that nobody is able to predict the future of markets or, to be more specific - the future price of securities. Oops, didn't Ben Graham tell us already that nobody can predict them ... I think this is true not just for an individual security, but as well for the sum of all securities (the market).
I think that John's view of what is going to happen is as good as anybody else's view, but still - a good reminder that the next crash might come (I am sure, it will) - and that it might be the big one (well, for our life times, anyway).
Duplicate (created thanks to insufficient server performance) deleted
Great post Black Peter...your first one not the second one ;);). Yeah I nearly doubled up on my post too thinking it hadn't gone through..
Amazing post. Interesting that Michael Burry posted the same thing as Hussman just today. https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/st...03383589060618
Mr Burry is still short on Tesla (and by a LARGE margin) - wonder when he will cover his position or will he end up like these hedge funds sensationalists such as Bill Ackman's (his massive loss in Herbalife) ?
Buffet appears to be doing far better than these jolos.
Burry doubling down https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/st...02913318178816
Hey Hoops, did you see Crestmont’s latest update
Ed’s stuff is interesting. Secular stuff is intriguing …secular trends remain.
Still in secular bear market he says
A couple of quotes from his email:
The current market environment can be summed up in two words: incongruity and divergence
However, the endurance, persistence, and general consistency of reported EPS over several years calls into question whether the normalized measures are no longer relevant. It could be that This Time is Different... {the finger ache from typing those four words lasted for days}
Either way, the next few years for the markets are unlikely to be boring.
With so much incongruity and divergence, it's a good time to diversify risk in this environment, not simply to diversify asset classes.
https://www.crestmontresearch.com/
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/neg...814963&embed=1
$10Triilion in bonds paying negative int rates,will keep the Equity markets going.
Obviously - this argument only holds until the capital markets crash. Sure - increasing inflation will rapidly remove buying power from the holders of low or negative interest bonds. However - as soon as they have nothing (material) to buy anymore for their bonds (look at historical examples for hyperinflation), stock prices will normalize as well ... which brings us back to the theme of this thread.
This could be quite nasty for these investors & the rest of the listed markets
"Billions in Capital Calls Threaten to Wreak Havoc on Global Stocks, Bonds"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billi...010512447.html
A bit like having a leaky apartment & getting a call for a $1m to fix?
"The top 1% invest 61% of their wealth in one asset"
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...h-in-one-asset
The writer seems to be using the "now" experience to attempt to value 10years into the future...When one starts using secular charting it shows the metrics haven't changed over the last 1000 years or more..Yes they oscillate within differing degrees of efficiency and shows up using shorter long term charts. But this writer is using today's experiences to deduce that some valuation metrics (not operating efficiently now) will become obsolete in 10 years time..This is a dangerous assumption..Looking ahead in say 10 years time that same writer might an article saying that those old metrics are back in vogue..Nearly every reader will not remember what he wrote 10 years ago.. There are many writers out there doing this stuff and fall in the same trap that this time is different..It is amazing the amount of economic data that has been produced over the years..In the UK there is valid economic date (e.g inflation rate) stretching back to the Magna Carta in 1215 which by law demanded Authorities to keep data records. Before that some data records were kept going back to 1066..Some metrics used then are still valid today such as inflation and various assert valuations.. Record of markets were sketchy but I remember seeing a PE ratio assessment chart dating back to those days..the data is probably dodgy but the metrics used were very basic but still in use today...especially used in long term comparisons.
Anyway each to their own..If it works for him so be it.
Have a look at my post below. It contains a 150 yr chart.. You will see how people get the notion that something doesn't work when in fact it is operating just fine.. The PE ratio is running very high at the moment and yet the market doesn't care..Some people may think the PE model is broken and needs to be thrown away..in reality those people do not understand how complex PE values and other metrics are.
The optimists who think the bear market is ending and there is great times ahead with the next Bull Market cycle in sight will not like to see my chart below.
The scary thing about this chart is the Annualised PE Ratio value currently sitting at 30.64 and rising. It is easy to see inflation rate being the main driver of Annualised PE (PE10). High inflation or deflation = bad (lower than PE(10) average). Low inflation = good (higher than PE(10) average) Our recent low inflation Era is the reason why the market is "happy" (sentiment) with PE(10) operating at a much higher value than the average 15 -17 area.
However there are moments when the Market goes insane as seen on the charts with the extreme peaks and nadirs..At the moment Wall St market is living off the fumes of the low inflation era and it seems the present market (Wall St) is expecting the recent higher inflation rate to be short lived (in a secular sense)...If the higher inflation rate becomes sustainable and entrenched then expect the PE(10) to fall accordingly.
The PE(10) rule of thumb is anything above 20 is considered overvalued with the red line at >25 considered high risk of a major correction. The blue line< 10 is considered extremely undervalued. However these over and under valued figures depend on the inflation rate of the day of valuation..
For example the 30.4 value from an overall perspective is considered extremely overvalued and the market operating at high risk. Comparing that 30.4 figure two years ago when inflation was near zero % an analyst would have seen that 30.4 figure as being less over valued and a lesser risk than seeing that same figure today with inflation running at around 5%.
The charting of Annualised (inflation adjusted) PE Ratio shows the secular behaviour of the stockmarket (Wall St) which highlights ingrained (generational) investor trading behaviour sentiments which causes the market to be either undervalued or overvalued for very long periods of time.
The chart also highlights the wasted time in trying to determine what is a fair valuation of a market. The chart shows that history seldom sees the market at fair valuation (equilibrium). The Long term PE(10) chart shows the Wall St market is oscillating either between a secular Bull or Secular Bear Market Cycle.
Attachment 14643
Thanks Hoop. Your’re absoultely right. Financial ratios are helping me to compare companies and then take better decisions. I prefer five-year average. I also found information overload can lead to poor decisions.
I am really fearful to touch overvalued assets. Intelligent market participants can separate individual attractive companies from the broader market. In other words time to look for hidden gems and out of favour stocks. Of course they should pass my financial ratio test if I decide to buy part of any company(stocks).
The most important information is financial ratios. We can get them from financial statements. For other information we have to do some research. There will be demand for basic necessities or things we use everyday through out the year. People used to drink coffee but they didn’t buy coffee stocks those days. Instead they bought gold stocks and some other stocks. Coffee stocks ended up with muti-baggers.
https://www.bankrate.com/investing/i...ancial-ratios/
https://time.com/personal-finance/article/bear-vs-bull-market/
Bear Market vs. Bull Market
In either type of market, not all stocks move in the general direction of the market. Some stocks by nature move in a contrary direction to the general market. While the terms bull or bear market might be sweeping generalizations, individual stocks may be affected by factors not directly related to the overall movement of the markets.
Long-term investors generally should not change their investing style to accommodate either a bull or bear market. Rather, many experts recommend that they have an asset allocation that reflects their risk tolerance, their investing time horizon, and their long-term goals. Investors should periodically rebalance their portfolio.
https://macrohive.com/hive-explainer...ent-portfolio/
Benefits of Investing In Defensive Companies
Here are some of the major benefits of investing in defensive stocks:
- Defensive stocks are considered some of the safest investments in equities. These companies usually promise decent returns over the long term. Warren Buffet is especially known for preferring defensive stocks. In fact, Berkshire Hathaway in itself is considered a defensive stock by some.
- Defensive stocks have a lower beta, which is the volatility of a stock compared to the rest of the market. As such, they tend to be more stable stocks as opposed to cyclical companies.
- If the stock pays dividends, they tend to be constant and with a predictable growth rate.
- Even if the market is in a bull run, defensive stocks can offer much-needed diversification, even for growth-focused investors.
TNBT
"The next big thing"
"booming market for customer relationship management (CRM) software"
AI increasing exponentialy in this field ?
Listen to Jasons One NZ podcast on Infratil thread
How all customers will be managed?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclu...134439629.html
HubSpot, which listed in the stock market in 2014, provides marketing software to companies that typically have up to 2,000 employees.
"It generated $2.2 billion of revenue in 2023 and posted a net loss of $176.3 million. Despite this loss, investors are excited about the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company's growth prospects, driving up its shares 50% in the 12 months."