Why do I get the feeling you trade this stock, David B?
Your postings go from positive one week to downright alarmist another - buy and talk it up, sell and talk it down?
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At 10% uptake by US Urologists PEB are into some serious money. Although there will be some hard work ahead for the company, I think getting one urologist in ten to use cxbladder is fairly good odds. Just imagine if they get 20% or more.
I quickly chucked this together to estimate the future intrinsic value based on PEB's projected growth in the US. The IV calculated is for US sales only, so you could easily add a lot more to it if you take into account NZ, Aus and Spain sales, as well as their IP. You will see I have assumed NPAT is 50% of gross margin, if anyone has any figures that may be more accurate then let me know and I will chuck them in (and if you think the LT growth rates should be different).
Obviously the sales aren't certain, so the IV calculations could be very wrong. Please don't let these figures blind you, there is still a lot of risk in this stock. The SP could easily shoot down to 20 cents if things don't go to plan.
Warning: if you have a good sized holding in PEB then make sure you're sitting down before you look at the picture.
Attachment 4387
I have also crunched some numbers and made lots of assumptions but assuming:
PEB achieve 2% US market share in the 2013-14 FY;
and more or less double sales until they achieve 24% market share;
and then hold that.
then I would value PEB shares at:
Mar 14: $2.40;
Mar 15: $2.77;
Mar 16: $3.11;
as for present value well...
Best wishes
Paper Tiger
or assuming:
PEB achieve 2% US market share in the 2013-14 FY;
and increase sales by 50% per year until they achieve 10% market share;
and then hold that.
then I would value PEB shares at:
Mar 14: $1.05;
Mar 15: $1.18;
Mar 16: $1.31;
present value would be $0.76 maybe :p
Best wishes
Paper Tiger
So 10% market share, no further growth
Income of US$100M equates to only NZ$0.45 a share, so $5.00 a share is blowing in the wind my friend.
There is far too much uncertainty around PEB for any value to have much meaning but even if it is successful it may well be worth a lot less than some people think (or more of course).
best wishes
Paper Tiger
I hope folks arent going to buy a bunch of Pelican resources on the asx at .010
It was interesting to watch the shareprice move up after the announcement fron Harbour Asset Management that they had reduced their holding due to an adjustment in their portfolio weightings resulting from the recent strenght in the PEB shareprice. I think the fact that they mentioned the reason for the sale and that it was only part of their holding gave some confidence to the market that Harbour think PEB are on the right track.
The shareprice has had a great run of late and after being a shareholder for over six years it's good to see that at last some potential in the company is being realised.
One senses that other investors (especially fund managers) are taking the opportunity of Harbour selling down to get set in the stock.
PEB is getting more liquid but as we have seen with DIL and XRO, it is still extremely hard for fund managers who need volume to get set in a stock to buy on market - when the stock is running up on good news.
So they need o make a judgement call and get set before a stock start producing the goods, so to speak.
Holllllly sh!@t just brought back in about 45 mins ago @.75c hoping to be taken out @ .77 cents , asb emailed me and said we have bought your shares .... nek minit... CLIA .. invesment gods are watching hallejuah
I would have thought that there would have been an announement regarding a trading halt. Juct checked trading depth on ASB and it's showing a buyer at 80 and seller at 75. So either there's a glitch or there is in fact a short halt as mentioned prevoiusly.
Good news at any rate.
" all hell is not breaking loose " Moosie.. but expecting 80c plus today.
Cheers.
Very little selling past 80c......topped up with 10,000 at 76 c.....
How do people know with a company/product like this if it is truly priced in or not?
Maybe some people "think" that the announcement was already fully priced in?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/172597.pdf nice overview
Chatanooga Cho cho got sidetracked ATM
should have warned you all I suppose - everytime I buy stock it drops
thanks for the info
Presentation being held now at First NZ Capital boardroom for media and analysts.
Sparky, why are you selling your 1m shares for $1 each???
100 1 1,000,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif
Nice one balance. Cheers.
Good answer - I too look forward to seeing how this stock goes now that it can do the job for the Americans...
Understand presentation was well received.
Most queries revolve around how quickly PEB will achieve US$100m target in US. Will not happen overnight - expect a slow buildup initially as urologists will have to be brought up to speed. But expect pace to pickup once initial sales are made. There will be push from patients preferring CxBladder rather than the invasive cytology tests.
Quiet confidence that all the steps and initial team are in place now to properly and really launch CxBladder into States.
Nothing new really to those of us who have been following the story.
BTW, understand that media was very interested in story and asked some very basic questions. Example - how long have you been selling CxBladder etc. Who are your backers?
I was going to top however the ANZ/DB site is down... again. Pretty useless, this is happening damn near every month.
So they've got certification and they're down 5.3%--go figure.
Mind you, the market in general has taken a hit with the Cyprus mess.
Just goes to show ,you have got to keep your eye on 2 balls --the co. and Mr. Market these days
I agree that it's been an impressive acheivement to get the lab approved within the time line that the company set. No doubt David Darling and Jackie Walker and team have been putting in some very hard yards. As already mentioned, sometimes these things do'nt always go as planned, especially when dealing with a bureaucracy on the other side of the world. But the company has been in the US doing a lot of groundwork over a long period and it's obvously paying off. I think it's a very good sign for the future.
If they can sign some deals with some of the large urological groups and the armed forces organisations, that could give them access to some reasonably large markets quite quickly.
Then there's also the rest of the world.
I think i may just sell the house and buy as many of these as i can at this price, look out XRO here we come.
Thanks for clarifying. My ASB one looks pretty average by comparison :S
I'm still a newbie at this so just out of curiousity say I backed this company based on the fundamentals (both qualitative and quantitative) yet the charts were showing a heavy number of sellings (say 4:1) pushing the share-price down / providing resistance..
Hypothetically and in terms of an entry point, would you buy in anyway if you thought the price was fair and it was a great long-term prospect.. or would you see if the prices ebbs away even further first to extract more value?
............some good coverage time given to PEB this morning on the Breakfast programme. $100m revenue was touched on a couple of times, lets see if Mr Market likes it today........hmmmmmmmmmmmm?? HOLDER/ACCUMULATOR
We are glad you are doing well[if your holding]but hope your kidding about the leveraging--you would be breaking every rule in the book--best of luck but keep the house
The whole point of the earlier post[down 5.3%]was the unpredictability of the market.
Alot of great co. have ended up blood on the floor,when the market turned ugly--you can still be optimistic without betting the house.
First buyer in @ .76c :)
lol i dont know ask the guy who has the buy order in @ .76
I guess everybody has a different way of looking at when to buy or sell, but generally if I think a company is worth buying into for the long term, I'll buy about half of what I want and then if the price comes back I'll buy some more. This way I can average down if the price falls. It's basic but seems to work in lieu of a crystal ball.
There are only 1500 at 72c and 900 at 73c.... pleased I am set.
900 at 74c to sell
56000 at 76 to buy
Sellers are backing off , only 800k as opposed to 1.2mil at close yesterday
Now small buy at 77c in the scheme of things not much on the sell to $1,,, there yours eh Balance !
Over 130,000 at 75c sold.... up 3c currently 75c line all gone 76c latest price.
Harbour is selling and why not? They are sitting on a 300% gain and it is only prudent to reweigh their portfolio.
After all, they do need to show their investors they can make money as well as lose it big time like the horrendous losses they are taking on Rakon.
Meanwhile, treat it as an opportunity to get some cheap shares if you believe in the story - as we have seen with Diligent on the way up. I remember posters bitching about a big seller at $1.00! Then $2.40 etc etc
Read the bitching going here at Carroll selling Diligent at $5.30-$5.40 before the stock popped above $6.30 a week later.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...oks-IPO/page43
People sell for all kinds of reasons and that's the beauty of the market.
Imagine if Harbour is not selling, sp will be 90 cents and there is no real base at this stage to support 90 cents. Institutions buying from Harbour will support the base at 75 cents to take it above $1 for the next run upwards. Provided PEB delivers of course!
not bitching - I am in for the long term.
I can see why a fund that has exceeded its mandate would be selling, but everyone else, why, even you you are sitting on a big gain. The news is good, future is bright, so it is not the time to lock in the gains.
lol - and there was I thinking that I was the only one that happened too - the maddening thing is that when I don't buy the price goes up!! Oh, well I keep trying.
What are the forums opinions on dividends with this stock or has this been dealt with earlier. Realise this is a long way off Atm but is there any indication as to policy or intent.
hi sparky and skid, no just kidding about selling the house besides it belongs to a working farm of which i have just finished feeding out in the pouring rain,HOW GOOD IS THAT.I have picked up PEB shares along the way and at this stage feel very satisfied with its progress and just have a feeling its really only in its infancy and one of our more exciting stocks going forward.
Hancocks - tax losses can not be distributed to shareholders. Therefore it needs to have that amount of taxable income before it pays any company tax. I assume they have enough losses to cover a few years profits.
To get imputation credits, you have to pay company tax. Therefore, if they paid a dividend before they pay tax, it will be an unimputed dividend which is not tax efficient as the shareholder will have to pay tax.
However, a company can return capital tax free to shareholders (upto the amount of 'avaliable subscribed capital' which is similar to the old paid in capital).
As a shareholder, if a company was going to pay out $10m to shareholders, I would prefer to receive it as capital or with imputation credits,rather than having to pay tax.
Not sure what the second part of your post is about. If you want something explained in detail, just ask. I could give you a 5 page opinion on that but it will cost ya. ;)
Being a new PEB investor could I please ask the forum why someone would have 1,000,000 shares
for sale at 1.00 which is way and above the market. Is someone just showing off (egos again) or what. Dont suppose anyone would like to have a wager they wont be there if and when PEB gets into the 90s. I know its their business but it seems a bit weird to declare such a large holding so early. Is this a bit of market psychology at work?
CJ, you might like to briefly share your expertise on the subject of the shareholder continuity threshold wrt c/f tax losses to complete the picture. I doubt they would be a T/O target until these are consumed by profits?
confession: I'm a 'bush accountant' armed only with enough self taught info to be dangerous!
Losses require 49%+ shareholder continuity to maintain losses. Small shareholders (less than 10%) are treated as a notional single person so you only have to be concerned with major shareholders exiting.
Re takeover and forfeiture of losses - who knows, if you want something bad enough, do you really care about $x of losses. You set your takeover price based on future cashflows, it just means you cant factor in the tax shelter provided by the losses. However the Buyer might think their global marketing position will neable them to unlock more value than the existing shareholders do with the losses (ie. can offer a price high enough for you to sell.
As an example, I understand that TelstraClear would have forfeited some losses when Vodafone took them over - Vodafone obviously seeing some integration value exceeding the value of the losses to Telstra. Alternatively, you could see an offer for just 50%, which may retain the losses till utilised (would need to check my maths on this one???).
Whilst I was just speculating above I imagine that may occur.
Alternatively they keep their sell order out there and hope that some big insto hits it (as Sparky suggested) so while they would prefer to buy in cheap they're also contempaneously happy to sell out if the price is right. Win/Win much?
When you think about it I suppose its a kind of backstop. With less than a million shares on offer to .80 then a sudden big time buyer or institution or two buying in lower down could send it up there. Out of my league and possibly "depth". :)
Maybe, someones got their first bid in at 80 tho..
10 m will be one associated company selling to another.. probably a buy/put transaction.. getting tidied up before 31 March.
Lets see if Mr 80c is there at the bell.
Looks like she is getting ready for another run..
chin chin
Cheers Sparky.... so do you think there would be many retail buyers ..or one or two bigger buyers.
Seems a good discount.. I would have taken some at that price.. did you have 65c offered .. at the time ?
Looks like it was the part of the Masfen holding - SSH a bit confusing given there is an old acquisition (rights issue) and this sale combined.
.........GRAND OPPORTUNITY TO TOP UP SAYS GR8DAY!........this will NOT last for long.
Sparky missed out so assume it is the big instos that got them. They have performance reporting for the period to 31 March. They will take the profits in the hope of topping the table and therefore getting more funds under management next year as people chase winners. More FUM means more fees and more bonuses.
The full 10m may not be traded but I expect high turnover for the rest of the week and into next week.
If they had let Sparky double down and buy another mil, no doubt he would hold as he thinks long term, unlike fund managers who are rewarded short term.
Well, 500,000 odd have sold after the placement, agree with Balance...once it gets over 76c.. there will be a panic to not miss the boat, or the train. currently about 250,000 available then it hits 77c ( 73..57000 ....74c - 63000 75c ..50,000 76c... 73000 ... )
Just topped up at 70 cents. I've been good at picking the bottom lately, so don't worry guys, it's all up from here :p.