so its all consistent having a
- $45million, (ebitda)
- and npat of $44.9million
??
Printable View
doesnt this imply that interest tax and depn and amortisation total only $0.1M
Maybe Page 14 of this presentation will help ....esp the bits around listed company structure
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262295.pdf
Without digging into the IPO documentation again, (hey its the weekend) I think the confusion is highly likely to stem from the accounting standards.
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) requires property investment companies, (which is what retirement companies basically are) to include revaluations of their property portfolio each year, as well as all other realised profits into earnings under the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These are then included in the figure reported as Net Profit before tax but the revaluations are of course exempt for tax under N.Z. tax law so are excluded for tax purposes. So all clear as mud so far ?
EBITDA on the other hand is the figure that will exclude the above annual portfolio revaluation but include gains actually realised during the year (i.e.realised development gains on new units sold and realised gains on resale's of old occupation licenses.
One measure includes all unrealized and realised gains, the other just realised gains.
Underlying profit, (which is my favourite measure) is EDITDA less of course interest, depreciation and amortization.
So all crystal clear then :) Probably pure coincidence that the two figures are much the same. Let me know if you'd like me to look into this a bit more next week to ensure its just a coincidence the two figures are very similar. Page 14 useful as Winner has suggested but I completely understand most people's eyes will simply glaze over and I don't blame them to be honest.
The key figure to concentrate on and the one all the analysts use for comparison purposes is underlying profit. Underlying profit is forecast at 8.42 cps for FY18.
Now what's the right PE ?, that the debate. Provided they do what they say they will do I see it at 14-15 ($1.18 - $1.26) in 12 months time + 4.7% dividend yield but then I am also hopeful that SUM will be on a 17-18 PE by then which would see them close to $6.
The caveat here however is that if Winston Peter's is the kingmaker and he wants to smash immigration out of the park with the consequent effect on the property market, all bets are off !
Thanks for your insightful posts Beagle. I agree with you re IPOs.
I know little about OCA but recent result and posts have piqued my interest.
I'm invested in SUM and would be interested to know what you see as being key differences between them (apart from the obvious SUM track record and OCA lower valuation).
cheers DH
With regard to the EBITDA/NPAT debate, the answer is, as always to read the friggin accounts!
Proper accountin:' EBITDA was $75M3 where NPAT was $44M9.
Pro Forma Underlying: EBITDA was $45M0 wherwhere NPAT was $34M0.
Take special note of note 3.3.
Wishes, Best of
Paper Tiger
OCA NZX 2017A 2018F OPERATING REVENUES 171,883 OPERATING EXPENSES LESS OTHER 133,093 GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 38,790 DEBT INTEREST INCURRED 20,146 3000>* UNDERLYING NPAT 13,422 UNDERLYING EPS 2.196cps 6.0cps<* UNDERLYING PE @$1 45.54 16.7>* Anyone have an idea of what this will look like next year? [ terms we see in 2.1 and not PFI* ]
You're welcome. Oceania more of a care focus http://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/ but watch for SUM to morph their business model more that way too
http://www.summerset.co.nz/
Thanks Mr Beagle and others for your recent posts on OCA. They certainly help someone like me to make sense of all the info one finds out there!
I didn't realise I was such an astute investor to wait for a good uptrend to emerge before I jumped i :-).
One thing I do notice with both OCA and ARV is they both don't have any villages south of CHC?
That interview with the CEO the other acquisitions were mentioned several times
Any acquisitions not included in forecasts
I think it was acquisitions that boosted the Arvida share price to where it is these days after a period of not doing much.
Bring on those acquisitions guys - as CEO said plenty of cash to spend.
plenty of small operators around pleading poverty - bargains?
Great posts, Beagle, Trader Jackson and others. I am a scientist, not an accountant, so Beagle, your explanation of that glib phrase 'underlying profit' vs EBITDA was most appreciated. All very well for me to analyse the numbers but if I am using the wrong figures to start with ....oh dear!
Not sure why it finished at 97 cents as I though the last trade was at 98 cents?
Only 13k of the 560k was traded at 97 cents... almost as if someone is trying to keep a cap on it, really should be above $1 already... especially with the acquisitions likely on the cards
I thought the same as above.
Value weighted average price was 97.98 for the day.
Yesterday's artificially low closing price not especially relevant today :)
...and weve broken the $1 barrier...
On its way to following ARV's path but interestingly when it gets to $1.28 it will be on a far more compelling underlying valuation than ARV.
I actually agree with this, OCA was listed so cheaply (as I have been saying for a while - but it is now less cheap than it was), in fact it still hasn't hit the top range ($1.04) they were potentially looking for.
Some of OCA's gains have very likely come at ARV's expense, but sometimes "ya can't win em all";)
Congratulations all holders
Well grabbed a few more today, Bank balance isn't looking as healthy as it was a few weeks ago.....so that maybe my fill for a while!
Hope we all have a long and prosperous ride...:t_up:
would have been nice to see it finish on the big (physiologically speaking) $1.00 mark, but 99c would have been ok. Interestingly, only about a third of the trading today was done at the finishing price (98 cents), the rest: above that mark, with over a quarter being brought at $1 (but strictly speaking 7k shares were sold at 97 cents)
Surely the sellers will stop raining on OCA's parade in the very late afternoon and finally allow it to finish at the $1 mark by the end of this week? (worst case - hopefully Thursday, or even tomorrow!)
It wouldn't surprise name if there is a syndicate with a pumper/ spruiker on here, taking profits.
I reckon it'll hold over the $1 mark today - that'll be awesome
A few days above that $1 will give a few confidence to start buying ....and then it could go anywhere (do an Arvida)
Strong day for the sector overall and VWAP for OCA up in line with RYM and SUM. Patience will be rewarded with this one is how I see it. Well done to all patient holders who has resisted the urge to take a quick profit. Sellers at $1 will run out of scrip soon enough with the volume in this one that's going through day after day.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/OCA/announcements/304949
Multiple directors buying on market. They're the ones best positioned to know how the company has been trading in the period since balance date (31 May 2017)
Disc: Holding since 82 cps, doubled down twice already on the way up and (especially for one on here who claims that people never disclose what they're doing in real time) I am buying more at up to $1.00 today...following the insiders and smart money.
Silly this isn't already over$1, perhaps the best free lunch on the market at present
Hi Beagle,
Just saw this, this morning. I take it as a good thing when Directors are doubling down so to speak? Better than selling off?
Great time to sell as well when there are plenty of buyers. Im holding not buying or selling.
Almost always a good thing to follow insiders as they're the ones best positioned to know how the company has been trading since balance date and what the prospects are for the foreseeable future. This is a very strong indication because you have multiple directors buying in reasonable volume.
Thanks for the reply Beagle.
One last question and it may sound stupid but I am unsure. Are the directors buying shares off the market, i.e. from you and me who have decided to sell. Or are they buying directly off the company therefore expanding the total amount of shares or reissuing more?
Buying on market. Click on the PDF's I provided a link for in post #431 to see quantities and work out what they paid per share.
Directors obviously think buying at this level is a great idea and they'd have a better idea than you, me or to be frank, probably anyone else.
If you follow the smart insider money you'll generally do very well over the long run mate.
Look at it this way, if you were selling on market at this level you'd be saying that you know better than multiple directors...and that would be a very "brave" call.
Well put.
Cheers
With the price 1.03 hopefully we have crossed the Rubicon of $1 at end of day.
I think we'd all be happy to see it track up to ARV's price of ~ $1.28 and indeed I expect that will happen over the next year or so.
Speaking of AR things...in a brief quiet moment this morning when ARG and OCA were both $1.03 I got to pondering as one does from time to time, (seeing as I have a stake in both and they're ostensibly property investment companies), the former yielding about 5.9% PIE fund so a slightly better yield...which has a higher price a year from now, five years from now and ten years from now... (this is rhetorical question for anyone wondering).
Reminder to silly beagle self, must keep an eye on growth and less focus on yield
Mr Taleb's dentist said don't look at stock prices to often ...only causes too many painful frustrating moments
OCA gone up 6% plus in each of the last 2 weeks. Two very pleasurable moments for those who only check prices on Saturday morning
Awesome - 2 weeks in a row of 6% plus gains for OCA - awesome
Check back next Saturday - another 6% week coming up
I bought day 1 at 81c then promptly went to 78c (often happens!) So sellers at 78 were under water you wonder why they bothered maybe no stag impatience who knows?
Gee - director's wife is buying a quarter of a million shares for 98 cents ... just wondering whether she talked with her husband before her shopping spree?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262906.pdf
Discl: holding, but slowly wondering, whether I am holding enough ;)?
Apologies if this sounds totally novice, how did she buy the shares? Was this done on the open market or privately(did hubby just transfer to her) because there's no trade for 250k shares on market depth. And how did she get them at 99c?
The trade was completed on the 1st of August. These disclosure notices aren't in real time
Just read the announcement - she bought the shares on August 1st on market.
Attachment 9063
closing price on August 1st was 98 cents - that's the price she bought at (edit: I originally stated 99 cents - my mistake))
BTW - volume was that day roughly 2 million shares - i.e. lots of headroom to accommodate for her 250000;
Thank you guys I'm going to be asking a lot of questions at an extremely novice level as I'm slowly getting into investing - shares mainly, (bitcoins too, yea line up and smack the back of my head)
But its not been a good start as this morning the ASB share dealing site has a - Service Disruption - Trade Processing. Great timing. And only 266 shares available at 1.03 as I edit this. Hmmm.
Oops - sometimes the inbuilt calculator makes small mistakes. She bought 250000 shares at $245000 - and this is obviously an average price of 98 cents (i.e. at closing price, not 99 cents as I first stated).
Mea culpa - should use the table calculator more often or practise these grey cells a bit more ;)
(98, 99, $1.03) doesn't matter really...what matters is directors and their nearest and dearest are getting their wallets out in a serious manner and showing a really meaningful vote of confidence in the company's future.
P.S. Bean counting hounds always use their calculator :)
That means couta too methinks
I think these are worth buying . Not much else on NZ market,picked some up in 80's and at 100. Will hold long term.
Whats the timeframe for a dividend being paid? Or is it better we just let them reinvest for growth. I like the very positive posts pretty much everyone has given OCA on this site and close to investing in some tomorrow. Join the happy crowd.
First dividend is due to be paid in feb 2018..
And with Remuera retirement village closing its doors this will only be good news for the other retirement villages picking up the displaced. I saw the retirement home on the news, looked very tired, dated and décor was dull yellow. I could almost smell the liver and onions. Compare that to the shiney new homes coming onto the market I know where I'd want my staring window to be.
They would be so lucky to get liver, onions, boiled cabbage and good mashed spuds! Especially nice if followed by a rice pudding best baked in large quantity. Fancier foods require robust digestion. Let's hope the shiny homes are weather tight and solidly built...
^^^ :)
Me fail English, that's unpossible.
Very few shares on offer imo it will be $1.10 + shortly.
Better get in quick folks ;)
Going to start giving ARV a run for its money soon (already is really)
As posted in the SUM thread I get the sense that the recent closures of some smaller and medium sized charitable and privately run care centers is just the very tip of the iceberg as only the very first phase of the new caregiver pay rates started to kick in on 1 July 2017. This company with its freshly reenergized balance sheet is well placed to look at acquisitions as are SUM other companies. Another announcement of director buying more this morning, obviously recent director acquisitions suggest they all think the company is very well positioned. The way this is going even old foes on here are likely to have a big group hug at the first annual meeting:t_up:
Disc: Hold this and SUM
percy? snoopy? Is it possible for them to agree? :)
I've just dived (well, dipped my big toe to be fair) in on the basis that they will be delivering dividends. There's money in the old age sector, no denying it. Although who knows what will happen in another 50/60 years when the millenials who havent got homes to sell to get into these places have nowhere to go.
Hi All,
I don't have access to the sell orders lodged. I can only see what is happening on nzx.com, is someone able to take a screenshot from there end?
Also I saw from Craigs after annual results a forecast of 1.04. Will the big boys be revaluating the price guide?
Just be careful following the spruikers, they may well be selling to you.
this what you need?
Buyers Buy Quantity Prices 15 299,928 $1.060 5 103,475 $1.050 8 58,995 $1.040 8 41,500 $1.030 8 329,150 $1.020 8 130,255 $1.010 8 81,100 $1.000 10 91,500 $0.990 11 194,163 $0.980 5 29,000 $0.970 86 1,359,066
Prices Sell Quantity Sellers $1.070 293,712 7 $1.080 85,196 4 $1.090 42,062 5 $1.100 39,100 6 $1.120 19,000 1 $1.150 247,046 2 $1.200 1,000 1 $1.250 10,000 1 $1.300 10,000 1 $1.500 25,000 1 772,116 29
I'm finding the ANZ securities site more useful as you can see the recent trades next to the bids and asks. See the pattern forming. And use ASB as its only $30 a trade up to 10k. Is that an ok price for brokerage fees or can I find better elsewhere?
From ANZ.
Recent Trades Price Volume Time Cond 107 75,848 14:14 SP 107 228,802 14:13 SP 107 11,700 14:12 SP 107 6,500 14:10 SP 107 1,379 14:07 107 9,000 13:57 107 559 13:57 107 819 13:57 107 9,059 13:48 107 9,441 13:48 107 20,000 13:47 107 1,378 13:47 107 3,000 13:41 107 150,000 13:40 SP 107 100,000 13:39 SP
Have just done the same suse. Where will they go? Who knows.
Ah that's come down from previous research, it was $30 + some % per trade. Good to know thanks.
prices work out a tad cheaper on ANZ:-
For trades for New Zealand listed securities (other than debt securities) with a trade value of up to NZ$15,000 NZ$29.90 For trades for New Zealand listed securities (other than debt securities) with a trade value exceeding NZ$15,000: (i) for the first NZ$15,000; plus NZ$29.90 (ii) for the portion of the trade value exceeding NZ$15,000 0.20%
Topping up with a few more in the closing match process. Posting in real time for anyone interested. I'm thinking 2-3 years down the track here and I honestly think there will be an abundance of very cheap acquisition opportunities in late stage care as more and more small operators are forced to close through increasing wages.
Oceania with its award winning care probably best placed of any of the operators to capitalize.
As expected, and as I alluded too that is something that was required very early in this thread, they dramatically deleveraged their balance sheet using nearly the full proceeds of the IPO float. Gearing as at 31 May 2107 was a very modest 15% so they are well positioned although I would imagine any acquisitions would be achieved at a very discounted rate given that other operators basically have their hands full with their own development projects, e.g. SUM recently announced their Parnell and St John's developments would involve capex of as much as $1.3 billion over the next few years and RYM are very busy in Australia.
Up 6%+ two weeks ago
Up 6%+ last week
Up 6%+ this week ......and it's only Wednesday
Probably next week will be another 6%+ as well
666 great number.
Have followed this thread very closely, and glad to have jumped in and bought last week. Thanks all for your input. Is there no one on this site against this stock? No devils advocate to stir things up a bit?
Yes interested in other viewpoints, always good looking at the cons.
I am in for the long haul, but since IPO up already 39%. Lucky I heard them advertise on the radio earlier this year for the IPO.
Of interest to experienced investors. With the Dividend coming out in FEB, what should I do with it. I know to reinvest, but to buy something else incurs brokerage of $30 ($300 div), already down 10%. I currently have holdings in FNZ, and Craigs my start with 4 Bluechips, perhaps I could deposit it into one of them as a one off as from memory they have no brokerage only fees.
Any thoughts?
You and Joshuatree should be very grateful for the detractors comments as I am sure in a small way they helped suppress demand and the IPO price. You're welcome and I'll look forward to you shouting me a few beers at the next Auckland ST get together. JT could come along too and we could all have a big group hug :D
If enough money and alcohol is involved I reckon almost anyone can get along
Hilarious joke of the week for me thanks:t_up:
fatboy read the earlier threads and you will find exactly that and it has happened many times where the anti switches to the "back up the truck". Be careful on here and make your own researched decisions. Lets all be safe out there and remember rule number 1 2and 3.
Its by no means the only forum where the veracity of the companies balance sheet as it was originally structured was questioned. Some of us as far back as 2014 made the observation that some pretty dramatic balance sheet restructuring was needed and it is pleasing that the company directors took those comments on board and used the full net proceeds of the IPO to effect exactly that outcome. The company is far better positioned now going forward.
I respect your posts but I must admit I do not understand how you can be so severe in your criticism of SKC as a "sin" company in so far as it may also make money from addicted gamblers, yet be so flippant about consuming large amounts of alcohol, which is widely accessible, and which can lead to devastating addictions and has caused grief to so many.
Disc: former shareholder of SKC, current shareholder of OCA, have seen the damage wrought by alcohol addiction
It was just a flippant remark, don't condone alcoholism but a couple of drinks now and again is okay I reckon and you are quite right, alcohol which is far more widely available has destroyed many lives in fact (and this is not directed at you) I sometimes wonder how much some posters on here have drunk before they post...anyway we're well off track, is Oceania up to $1.15 yet ? :t_up:
My comments to my gf don't even get me a cooked dinner? Where have I gone wrong?
LOL I am sure the investment bankers and analysts involved in the float gave them the message loud and clear that they needed to get their balance sheet in tip top shape to bring it to market by IPO. They're the ones that were really listened too and probably don't have any problems getting a hot cooked meal from their partners at the end of a day either.
LOL...back on subject, I would think that not only does the closing of these privately run late stage care centers throw up interesting acquisition opportunities but also in the meantime it ensures that Oceania's care facilities are running at very close to 100% occupancy, (a little birdie tells me yet another privately owned care center in Wellington is in real trouble).
Hi all,
Apologies for being slightly off-topic; I'll keep this as short as possible.
Colmar Brunton is conducting some research on behalf of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) about what information investors find most helpful to make informed decisions about particular investments. This will help the FMA improve product disclosure documents to make them more useful for investors. We're looking for people to take part in paid research interviews at our Auckland and Wellington offices in late August.
We'd like to talk with you if you have recently invested, or seriously considered investing, in the recent Oceania IPO.
Your contact details and the feedback you provide in interviews will be completely annonymised and will not be used for any other purpose. If you are interested in taking part, please email ali.ajmal@colmarbrunton.co.nz with your contact details including a phone number.
Cheers
PS: If you're interested, please get in touch via the email above as direct messages on ST won't be acknowledged.
PPS: This message was cleared with an ST Admin before being posted.
Ah....u ruin the party.....
An interesting quote from the article "If nothing else changes by 2019, we will be at capacity". My knowledge of the retirement sector is quite limited, but the statement sounds quite bleak?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...red-population
http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-stan...their-families
Except - Interestingly the five listed operators provide only 10,000 of the 38,000 care beds in the country.
Interesting times for the industry...one wonders how the smaller operators with moderate occupancy level's will cope..I expect significant rationalization in the care industry and in due course in the future it will not surprise me if there is an acute shortage of quality care facilities.
If the increased funding from the government fails to fully reflect the pay equity changes, then those small operators will be in trouble. With recent residential real estate price inflation, perhaps the government will be relying even more on private payers to pay for care costs (they also scrapped the planned big increase in the asset threshhold.) In addition they may be relying on the big operators such as OCA to cross-subsidise the care beds from their profits from the sale of ORAs.
"The Westpac report found private companies such as Ryman are expected to provide "around 40 per cent of the rest home beds needed over the next 10 years.
"These beds are "almost always" part of a larger village like Bob Scott. These facilities find it easier to make money. As the report puts it, they have the "scale and alternative revenue streams to remain profitable". (my highlight)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...red-population