I think this EW count is correct, so we may
see a turn to complete leg 5 very shortly.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd_ew.gif
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I think this EW count is correct, so we may
see a turn to complete leg 5 very shortly.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd_ew.gif
The action has dropped as far as it is
allowed to go according to Elliott Wave rules.
i.e. Wave 4 should not penitrate the end of Wave 1.
(Pink line previous chart), unless plot is a diagonal.
However, very slight spike overlaps
are allowed in certain instruments such as Fx.
So, we really need to see a turn around here,
otherwise the count shown on the chart is voided.
Still long at 7080 +19.
arco
I took out a short at 7122 last nite.... - just a little contract - have very wide s/l and t/p - prepared to ride this for a while and be patient....
arco where are you on this pair now?
Peat
IMO the EW 4 possibly completed on 26th with
an almost perfect AB=CD and therefore I deceided
to close out my long at 7140 + (+55) and remain
on the sidelines.
No present position - awaiting Flag break.
Appears to be a good long term short IMO,
(as suggested way back when at 7446).
arco
yes I've missed far too many of your valuable recommendations.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
(as suggested way back when at 7446).
arco
But I am slowly expanding my sphere of operations and gingerly increasing my exposure/risk levels etc....
Forex will be around for a while, as long as I dont bust my a/c :D
I just came across this in regards to proposed changes in the new budget and thought it could be relevant to this thread.Quote:
quote:N.Z. Dollar May See `Significant' Demand on Taxes, Westpac Says
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar may attract ``significant'' demand in the next two years on repatriation by fund managers before proposed tax changes that favor domestic over overseas share investments, Westpac Banking Corp. said.
Finance Minister Michael Cullen in the May 19 budget proposed scrapping a so-called grey-list of seven countries, including the U.S., U.K. and Australia, where New Zealanders can invest in stocks without paying tax on any capital gains. He also proposed abolishing capital gains tax on domestic equity investment, with the changes slated for 2007.
``Clearly, the proposed changes would provide investors with an incentive to repatriate some or all of their grey-list investment ahead of the legislation,'' Wellington-based Johnathan Bayley, a senior currency strategist at Westpac, wrote in a note to clients, which he confirmed by telephone. ``There's general agreement that there is potential for a substantial shift in investor allocation.''
New Zealanders' investments in overseas equities total NZ$24.5 billion ($17.4 billion) said Bayley, citing balance of payments figures, with about 80 percent invested in the seven grey-list countries, also including Canada, Norway, Germany and Japan.
Bayley said by assuming 25 percent of equity investments in the seven countries are repatriated to avoid the capital gains tax, it would bring about NZ$5 billion of funds back to New Zealand. This would result in around $NZ3.4 billion of extra demand for the currency because some funds hedge against appreciation of the New Zealand dollar to protect the value of their overseas equities, he said.
`Significant Flow'
``In terms of underlying currency supply and demand this is a fairly significant flow,'' Bayley said.
New Zealand's deficit in its current account, which measures flows of goods, services and investments, widened to a record NZ$9.39 billion in 2004.
The New Zealand dollar has gained 12 percent in the past year to buy 71.14 U.S. cents as of 2:40 p.m. in Wellington. The currency will drop to 64 cents by year-end, Westpac predicts.
Any reallocation of funds back into New Zealand won't be made until investors are made aware of the details of the tax changes and it is passed into law, Bayley said.
Does anyone think this has the potential to significantly impact the anticipated drop in the NZ Dollar in the coming year or two?
Hard to say, but its not the only factor in the equation
If these don't get rolled over or replaced by continued new issuance, there's enough supply to counter any one-off inflows such as has been suggested in the article.Quote:
quote: Uridashi redemptions total NZD6.7b in 2006, NZD4.6b in 2007
Eurokiwi redemptions total NZD2.6b in 2006, NZD3.4b in 2007
And who knows now what the mood of the markets will be at that stage?
Take it as it plays out at the time
Xerof
short term long opportunity?
June 9th RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
maybe Dr Bollard will make good on his will-not-rule-out-further-rate-rises rhetoric
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2005/1691405.html
I think the interpretation taken by the markets of his "outside MPS comments" was that he didn't want the rate curve anticipating future easings too early, and thereby undermining the current state of monetary policy.
My pick is he won't tighten, but will retain same sort of rhetoric, especially if we see Kiwi in decline in the meantime.
But recent data has a softer tinge to it, and recent USD strength has capped the Kiwi anyway. Haven't had a look at TWI level, but it must still be very high, as Kiwi so far has held in rather well.
Hearing from various sources and contacts, that "decisions" to unwind the infamous carry trades have already been taken, and nothing will change that process. Watch the sinking lid - sell all rallies - locate your grandmother and prepare her for sale too[8D][8D] IMHO of course
Xerof
The mass fundamental info will only confuse,
so the information you require is all in the chart.
MT/LT short IMVHO.
Whats Max got to say Xerof?
Med term:
Short term: sell at 7075/00, stop at 7125, for 7000Quote:
quote:APRIL 29th,.7280 -- Kiwi still favours a much greater corrective decline and sell-off to .6800 over coming weeks,probably enroute the .6400 level
sitting right on 200 SMA line here at 7030
will it, won't it [^][^]
seems pressure coming through AUD.NZD cross selling for the moment
I guess you have to sell the break if not already short - thats what the momentum model accounts will do....NYK session might see the fireworks
Xerof
D: short 2 units at 7120, along with 2 units of AUD at 7571
GO the comdols !!
6999
Cleaned up on both of the above at .6971 and .7477 respectively - thanks v much to the FX gods. Looking for modest bounces now to resell:D:D
yeh i still have one short
but bought back at 7014 and 6968
strange thing to say but in this sort of market taking profits is dangerous tho....
All things being equal (which they never are)
I get a fib retracement for 61.8 off the lows to 70.18
Anyone else get close to that?
Cheers
Slam
I think this one has already gone,[:I]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
All things being equal (which they never are)
I get a fib retracement for 61.8 off the lows to 70.18
Anyone else get close to that?
Cheers
Slam
Change that too 6998
H&S formation neckline broken on daily
- thats a bearish sign.
Neckline may have to be tested, but once polarity
change is confirmed..... watch out below.
http://www.animatedgif.net/animals/bugs/jbspider_e0.gif
it's times like these I'm glad i'm long a put option
Quote:
quote:1/6 - short 2 units at 7120, along with 2 units of AUD at 7571
Nice bounces indeed so far - possibly slightly better than modest - any views out there?Quote:
quote:later on 1/6 - Cleaned up on both of the above at .6971 and .7477 respectively - thanks v much to the FX gods. Looking for modest bounces now to resell
I reckon 7080/90 for Kiwi, but AUD looks fairly bid still - 7650?
Where are we on the SPIDER INDEX Arco?
Xerof
IMO
Thursday's RBNZ statement will keep it above 70 from at least here till then... market pricing in expectations of 1. the possibility of a rate rise, and 2. the possibility of dr bollard making a statement like no rate rise now but maybe next time
(fundamentally speaking of course... on the downside there's 29/30 june FOMC meeting, which could provide a catalyst for exploring levels below 69?)
Xerof
The 'web' based oscillator is below zero and as mentionedQuote:
quote:Where are we on the SPIDER INDEX Arco?
previously I expect a test of the H&S neckline before
NZD continues south. Long term - down
arco
http://www.gifs.net/animate/spiderer.gif
Sold two units at 7087 - close enough to neckline for me, but will add more whichever way it goes.
Xerof
yes its looking stretched ... i have one short from a while back - about 100 pips out now [B)] ( I didnt initiate it at that level but thats where the rollover places it now)
I will roll with it at this stage as its only 1x10k , will average up if i get the opportunity (cant trade from the day job office unfortunately hahah)
wtf... just spiked way up
its finding some wings alright!!
maybe a jumping spider ;)
Nope, not a good decision this morning. Stopped and reversed at 7134 for 5 units (net 3 long). Have downside stop at b/e now as I don't completely trust this upmove, but we all know Kiwi has a terrible habit of overextending. Ozzie looks bid to hell, did hear Asian CB has been a big buyer....Quote:
quote:Sold two units at 7087
Xerof:(:(
it would appear some spiders catch the breeze quite well.
I bailed on my short, a bit late really
no pain no gain. [?]
i cant help but think you'd be brave to long at this point...
but if i strongly believed that I would have held onto my short
i'm all flat at this present moment.
put option (i don't care)
(well i do somewhat but not to the extent i would if spot)
The only thing is i forecast that it would go up now like it has, so went long (only 1 contract!) at 7000 for the short term rally and jumped at about 7070 {lacking in committment maybe}
TRL -Arco, forming any strong views on Kiwi? - I'm mulling selling it around here with a tight stop above 7170.Quote:
quote:Whilst .7150/7165 caps,risks sell-off back toward Key .7100/7065 Support
Xerof
I'm getting in this elevator........"Going down, ground floor please." :D
Patience MAY provide a better level....Quote:
quote:No indication of Reversal yet.Beyond .7165 & next Resistance at .7200/15
has the same 'feel' about it as yesterday nearing the London open
Xerof
Xerof
IMO this is just a polarity test of the bearish H&S.
My thoughts are still as mentioned previously........
One tactic could be to trail a short entry from behindQuote:
quote:The.... oscillator is below zero and as mentioned
previously I expect a test of the H&S neckline before
NZD continues south. Long term - down
the northbound action.
Next Gann resistance is at 7202 which could aid with
resistance at the neckline.
arco
Arco, put me right - I thought the neckline was 7087...[xx(][xx(]
Could you draw me a little piccy of where you see it? without the spider will suffice;);)
Xerof
Zero spiders :D
http://www.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd.jpg
Hmmm, I can see that your chart is based on EOD Arco.
Unfortunately I used a HLC line (using lows) to get a neckline. THATS THE REASON - AAGGHH - makes a significant difference, circa 120 piparoonies.
Back to my books.....now wheres the bit on H&S formations....necklines...ah, here it is...beware of low necklines...they'll leave you feeling a right t!t...Ok - understood
Xerof
BTW I must tell the techie at WPAC to use EOD - it was a graph put out in their weekly that I glanced at to check the neckline !!
Xerof
I usually use the close, however others may have
their own ideas. This diagram from Incredible charts....
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/imag...%20trading.png
arco
Xerof
A bit of tech info for you........
The line chart provides less information than a bar chart, but is more useful for charting long term trends. It has a line that plots only the closing price against time.
http://www.flexinvest.co.uk/images/linechart.gif
arco