Good post Baa Baa, thank you. (Disc - watching but not holding.)
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Good post Baa Baa, thank you. (Disc - watching but not holding.)
There used to be in NZ, a company called Galen, which provided a green-screen Patient Admin System and also a clinicals product which shared its genesis with Orions Concerto product (they were basically created by the same guy that I believe went from one company to the other and took his IP with him). They got bought out by iSOFT, a UK company with an extensive suite of health software that decided to design a completely new product from scratch to service the NHS in the UK. They poured a lot of money into it, missed deadlines and eventually went bankrupt and were bought out by IBAHealth, an Australian company that had its own extensive suite of products. They kept pouring money into the new product and themselves went bankrupt and were bought out by CSC (American) and became that company's healthcare division. So you see how this could go for Orion, right?
The thing to be mindful of is that CSC finally finished off the new product, implemented it widely in the NHS in an as-a-service model, and are right now tendering it for contracts in Aus and no doubt will target NZ too. Since they are a much bigger company (and about to become even bigger as they merge with HP Enterprise Services) and have a lot of experience with Big Data and a-a-s stuff, I don't (myself) rate Orions chances if they take much longer about what they're doing. CSC also have software in every DHB in NZ and a lot of the private sector too, plus the vast majority of Aus. So they have the client connections as well and can (if they so choose) migrate clients on their existing products to the new product where appropriate.
One last point, Healthcare clients can't afford to just go out and get another product when it suits them. The software is hugely complex, expensive and time-consuming to implement, and there are all sorts of local statutory requirements that change almost annually which require updates. So, they almost always insist on a copy of the source code being put in escrow against the failure of the provider (thus if they do fail, they can take the source code to somewhere else and have it updated to meet new statutory guidelines for the few years it takes them to organise a replacement product). The financial health of the provider is also a major factor in deciding tenders, because the clients simply can't afford to deal with someone that might fall over. So the upshot of this is, if the market gets a sense that Orion is in trouble, their ability to sell even their existing products gets exponentially harder.
I see the price has fallen to $1.81 this afternoon. At what price does it become tempting for a small punt?
From a technical perspective: As soon as it bottomed out and indicators confirm a trend change. Until than ... never try to catch a falling knife!
From a fundamental perspective: What is a loss making Software company which may or may not go bust worth to you? Take your answer - this is exactly the right amount to buy in for a small punt:).
They are in a very strong down trend.
No,and I mean no buying until the trend changes.
SP as I write is $1.80.
The 100 day EMA moving average is $3.51.
The 200 day EMA moving average is $3.76.
You will need to wait until the sp moves up above the 100 day EMA,and that will be a while yet.!
Not completely.
On another thread, some one posted they lost a good deal ,buying a share against my warning about buying a share in a down trend.
So I thought I would try to warn Valleytrader who appears to be a "newbie".
And yes I use both the "dark side" and the "bright side".Both seem to work together??..lol.