Someone's been selling up large here. A buy depth of 300k+ @80c has disappeared in the space of an hour.
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Someone's been selling up large here. A buy depth of 300k+ @80c has disappeared in the space of an hour.
Former Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ward sold out on 24 March.
This puzzles me. Keeps popping to mind when thinking about what is happening.
Anyone else unable to let this thought go?
Ideas to why?
Perhaps needs the money, moving countries etc. Some households are currently selling up and moving home all over the world.
It's entirely possible he got caught up in the panic like many retail investors. Taking a long term veiw, selling $1.04 odd of property for effectively $0.45 or so doesn't seem a particularily smart move. Also, if he beleived the shares were worth $0.45, why did he not sell out at over $1.20?
You also have to consider the number of insiders who brought up during the period:
Gregory Tomlinson - Brought 1m
Elizabeth Coutts - Brought 50k
Alan Isaac - 10k + 20k
Mark Stockton - 90k odd
If you get excited over every insider buy/sell you will have a hard life.
Insider buying or selling shouldn't really be too looked into imo, but if we're going to speculate insider buying is probably a lot more reliable as a projection of company growth confidence than selling which can mean a new toy for home or absolutely nothing the public needs to actually know about.
Been plenty of times insiders all lined up and bought stock and the stock still plummeted significantly. I quite a few case studies where insiders bought heavily after a stock plummeted and then the stock just kept plummeting down, as if the insiders wanting to all lose 100k+ plus
Earl giving us the warm fuzzies
All quiet on the oceania front
Banks helping out if they need more dosh
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...203/321422.pdf
Yup, boom times back on winner, even 80 cents looking pretty cheap now.
Net debt has jumped from from $150m as at end FY18 to $247m at end FY19, to $288.1m at 1H20, and $321.2 as at... Friday 24th April? 'Growth' in Net Debt seems to be slowing down a touch, not sure if other parts of the business is slowing down even more...
We are so lucky in NZ.....this virus did not kill all our aged care
well as the man who called the BEAR and shorted AIR. I would have thought you would be waiting for the wave of selling. Though MR O is ready with his printing electronic press..
i would think 55 to 60 cents would be back up very quickly..even if labour brings back some form of wider tax reforms..in this economy this sector is surely a long term winner..
Craigs has a new TP of 87c on OCA
I'm heavily invested in this one and have been for about 18 months - was lucky enough to grab at .40 (but that only balances out the north of .95 purchases).
All things considered I am still undecided if the moves down represent another solid buy opportunity or I am missing an impending activity which speaks to the perpetual selling happening recently.
Recent director purchases point in one direction - 'he hopes'
Long-term, this sector will do just fine. There will undoubtedly be ups and downs along the way, but I think OCA will be a strong performer in the long run. If you want to (attempt to) trade the shorter-term trends, go for it, but I'm comfortable buying as funds allow and look forward to $1+ shareprices again once confidence returns to the market.
Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.
Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.
Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :
1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and
2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.
Sensitivities:
1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET
2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).
3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).
someone is keen to dump their shares......
Thanks Balance. Appreciated.
I have started buying into OCA. I don't mind a capital raise, as long as its not to cover losses. However I would prefer reinvestment of dividends. Cut the dividend. Then as the price goes down, I will buy more.
In 5 years time the increase in money supply will make this sector whole again. History repeats itself and next time the bubble could be even higher than this time.
There's plenty of money out there still - AIA's $1.2 billion gives us the best idea of how investors feel about putting in more money into a good long term infrastructure company hit by a shorter term (between 1 to 2 years) issue.
The smart companies will do what IPL has just done - in the name of getting well-positioned, and raise the funds while the appetite is there.
well they could just slow down the development for a while but if the virus is limited hazard pay might not cuase a pay rise..
it just depends if they can defer there capital expenditure.
DISC: sold out at 1.30 and lost the profit selling out of AIR not fast enough even after beagles warning... in shock.. but did not know it.. even after tracking the virus from late january.
everyone in the country will be wanting to buy there lovely new woolen fashionable face masks manufactured in the south island by those wonderful new italian sock making machines , and that includes every one in rest homes..
if they go public prehaps woolen socks and face masks are the next big thing... the say they cant wait to have Kathmandu open. they are apparently there biggest stockest..
The boss spoke on the NBR....saying he is very confident with the company future
I lost my lovely profits from this stock in the AIR NZ crash even after beagle warned and i was tracking the virus from january. It appear it was already in europe pre xmas. If OCA drops back to the 60's i will double or triple my current holding. Yes i bought back in but missed 40 cents. I must have been out riding the hills and in shock...Those of use who rode the crash down i think are only just recovering our wits to trade again and invest. The GFC was a slow affair , now i would like to see sells offs this winter but the shear amount of QE may not give us those wonderful prices again.. pitty. Still theres a bull market coming....And after putting new systems in place over the last 10 years we are now ready to start the rolls outs...
Short but sweet preso
Doesn’t seem to be anything new.
Can borrow heaps more if needed ..that’s good
Hopefully get a few fund managers to buy more
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...774/322107.pdf
I agree, tj, it's a case of no news is good news - but I wouldn't go so far as to hazard a guess on the shareprice, given the current state of the world.
Seems alot are locking in profits and why not.Not sure about the numbers that were sold during the sell down but we should see a rise to NTA when there done and it will happen quickly imho
I'm not sure what you mean by a rise to NTA when they're done, but certainly someone has been selling down in large numbers for the last 2 weeks or so, bringing the share price down about 15% in the process...hopefully we've found the floor, as I'm just about over averaging down!
Yep. Looks like they are keen to keep feeding them in at the 73-74c range...it just edged into 72 the other day, but not for long. They'll probably dump a bunch into that nice bed of support at 73 later this arvo, after the 74c buyers have all dried up...and there seem to be plenty of those off the back of this morning's presentation.
Just like all that ‘rinse and washing’ or whatever it was described as when they share price hung around 105 after that previous Macca dump
History repeating ...no doubt same players and they’ve got heaps more to play with this time.
At the ground level, I am told that international investors/shareholders are selling out because of the disastrous situation with retirement villages and care homes in Europe & US.
Understandable that they do not believe the situation in the sector in Australasia is under control - question of time for them before the sector implodes like it has in Europe & US.
Beagle cautioned a wee while back about the greater influence on a share price of perception verses reality.
Seems to be playing out just like that. All RV stocks have reverted, for now, to SP values of 12 months ago. The stand out exception being good ol` OCA which is currently about 30% less than 12 months ago.
This mornings release has basically said all is well in the hood, no surprises there. In fact I see this report having more positives in it than its peers can possibly have. But here we are, with the SP languishing by a country mile behind its cousins.
I put this down to a combo of 2 things.
Firstly, the 38% of stock recently sold into the market is still shuffling around from loose hands. Good to see ACC has now captured 5 % of this.
Secondly , OCA`s point of difference being late care stage is surely being seen as riskier in this environment, therefore "avoid'.
Both of these SP impediments are quite temporary , (unless of course COVID does get its way which is looking ever less likely- even then its still temporary- just longer temporary ).
As a long term/ value investor I`m very happy with today's report, its more or less business as usual with 6 week lost of development and ILU sales (not care-suites) . I considered this actually remarkably good when compared to most other NZSX industries.
"perception" surely is mostly why the SP is where it is - for now. In fact, value investors must embrace these uncomfortable SP times as this is how opportunities arise for the "small end of town" in a supposedly "efficient market".
It is only a matter of how much time before perception gives way to reality of how the business is actually performing.
FWIW surely it has to be revalued to some degree when the FY result turns out fairly healthy 2 months from now.
No question about it, it was a good solid update. The team at OCA are doing a very good job. Must confess I wasn't aware that care suites could still be sold under level 4 and 3 lockdown protocol's so that was a pleasant surprise. I think its worth reiterating that most people move into an OCA facility because of need or the future perceived need for care so its more a needs based decision than anything else.
Hard to put an estimate on FY20 and FY21 earnings, (so I won't try) but the whole market appears to be looking through to the other side of this Virus so in that context I think the shares are very sound value in the low 70's and looking ahead to FY22 earnings they are probably very cheap.
I agree Maverick. Perception, (at some stage), must collide with the reality of how well N.Z. as a whole is managing this crisis and OCA as a company is performing. Patient shareholders should do well from here over the long run. I also concur that a lot of weak hands from the Macquarie $1.20 (jacked up ?) placement have probably decided to cut their losses. Point is Macca's have gone and their overhang has likewise been removed from the market.
I can't see a lot to like on the NZX, (the bounce off 23 March 2020 lows has been too strong for my liking), with the odd exception that includes this one.
I know Coutts is back into this too :)
Added to my existing holding today - solid unspectacular update.
The tailwinds of this sector keep me invested. Just wish mine was the green variety.
The world in a sorry state today because guru economist Milton Friedman Said “the only responsibility of business is to maximize shortterm profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs.”
We’ve got to change that “Maximize short-term profits, regardless of the social and environmental costs” attitude to “maximize long-term benefits for all people and nature.”
I don’t give a stuff what Oceania’s short term profits are as long as they work towards creating a better life for all of us in the future.
Nope, the sell down continues unabated.
Attachment 11510
Healthy profit-taking, I would say.
37m shares were sold down in the week of 23 March at between 40c to 55c.
Be a while yet before these traders sell out completely to lock in their profits - and why not?
If you are a fundamentalist, take the opportunity to add to the portfolio.
If you are a trader, wait for another 12m shares to go through imo before the sp bounces back up.
ACC selling. I dont know whether they made a profit or not, I suspect not , but they're reducing to under the 5% level. and sold 367000 at 74c
I picked up some today for 73 cents.
Interesting. They don't appear to be the main seller we've been seeing the last 2 or 3 weeks though. I wonder if they are just keen to stay under the 5% threshold. The figure they sold in the disclosure is pretty close to what they received from the DRP in Feb.
Oh great, so only 10 million left to go then, lol.
Are they selling down everything? Some of the trades they've done this year look really silly to me.
ACC trades around the edges, +/- 200k shares around their many core 5% holding levels in stocks.
Real sellers are those who picked up some of the 37m shares sold from 55c down to 40c.
They can't sell forever and there have been big crossings at 73c and 74c - means the institutions are stepping up to buy.
3m done today so far - so around another 9m to go (if they all sell out to lock in profits - which might not be the case).
Roger that, Balance, thanks for the explanation. Seems to be pretty good support at these levels. Debating loading up on a few more as we must be about due an uptick on this one, just like MET. My portfolio is a bit more heavily weighted towards this one sector than I'd normally like, but just not seeing anything much else that hits the right price point at the moment.
Up until 2 days ago over half, 12 of 21 NZ deaths were from just the one Rest home, Rosewood Rest Home in CHC. That cluster also was responsible for 54 cases.
I feel its important to note that should not cast a shadow on dedicated staff who from all accounts have done their absolute best in a tragic situation.
An inquiry has reported staff were unable to change their PPE frequently enough & damp masks from exertion during the shifts likely caused the breach in protection.
The deaths mean Canturbury has by far the largest Covad mortality rate.
Overseas shareholders - especially those institutions based in the USA and UK perhaps, would see what has in care facilities there and perhaps that colours their opinion of risk for NZ elder care too.
The actual figure for Covid deaths in the UK (& the USA too?) is understated as not all people who die in care homes (or in their own homes) have been tested for Covid-19. Reported Covid deaths include only those who have been tested and reported a positive result. There has been a severe lack of testing in the UK, as their PM ignored advice and they have not heeded WHO advice to "Test! Test! Test!"
It may be best to compare the current month's mortality rate with the average of the last two years. When that is done, many more elderly deaths could be attributed to Covid as deaths ascribed to another underlying cause, may have had undiagnosed Covid-19 which acted as the final straw.
Or government plandemic
Very poor and frustrating plans.
My perception is that the ongoing cases are the result of poor testing,inaccurate tests and failure to protect nurses and contacts of possible cases. The fault is in planning not people .
the lockdown has been very poorly planned eg forestry working stopped despite no evidence that there has been any transmission in outdoor workers.
We cannot be trusted to use our boats but ok for team NZ to go sailing in what is a very dangerous type of sailing.
The airforce and regional council in Northland has wasted so much in resources not to mention risks in searching for errant boaters.In response I see my neighbours go fishing at night to avoid detection.
I hear parties at night but i am not going to dob them in .Rather than police having roadblocks which probably has not reduced transmission it would be so easy for them to patrol streets looking for such risky things.
My wife sees people chatting in supermarkets-would be safe if they chatted outside keeping 2 metres distance .
Some people are really stupid and take risks so I have no problem if prosecutions ensued if others have been endangered .
[QUOTE=huxley;813902]Sounds like sour grapes, you’ll get to play with your boat again soon ;)[/QUOT
Sorry I may have not made myself clear-I was expressing my frustration
I do keep to 2m distancing and have not stopped fishing.
Yet again we hear 2 new cases today and proclaimed linked to St Margarets resthome and household transmission
The truth maybe they were indirectly linked to the resthome and transmission happened through the incompetence of Waitakere Hospital by not ensuring nurses caring for covid-19 patients were adequately protected and no precaution at all to prevent household transmission.
Why single out it was resthome transmission ?
The chain actually started before St Margarets and continues beyond but we are made to believe its resthome transmission that was the source of the problem .
The general public will believe its rest homes that are the problem when it is more to do with govt and Health Departments not taking effective measures and not admitting to mistakes and shifting the blame.
Oceania has done well to prevent any cases but will be tainted with such reporting.
Many countries have looked at how many extra deaths they have had above 'normal'.
In NZ, with so few deaths due to covid-19, that would be statistically difficult as 21 deaths would be in the noise.
I think we do know if people die of c19 - we just don't know when they might have died of underlying health issues (1 month? 1 year? 5 years?).
It will be interesting whether today ,or this week, is when our "seller" finishes up and finally OCA has the foot taken off the back off its neck.
Fair consideration SCOTTY, with what other companies are doing ATM.
Rather than me spout off all the reasons why I think OCAs cashflow supports paying the usual divi, how about you outline why they wouldn't.
Dont get me wrong, I'm not trying to be adversarial, you my have some good points I just can't see.
They are bound to forge ahead with a cap raise as foreshadowed in HY1 (pre covid) to compliment their overdraught but I'm sure they were never intending to reduce the divi as part of that capital rearrangement.
They just might hold back a bit of divi cash to be prudent but there is no liquidity problem either this year or the next, barring a property crash or large outbreak. All income OCA streams are very stable, even with no new and resales of ILU's during level 4, there is still no cashflow issue.
There will be extra COVID expenses but there is mitigating govt money coming for that so we are told.
So if Earle is conservative he might hold back a bit of moola although this is unnecessary barring a property collapse. However I do not imagine he is that way, he yacht races for fun so that means he knows how to take a calculated risk to get an edge.
In a nutshell , there is a chance the divi will be trimmed purely as a precaution but personally I think Earle will use this time to demonstrate the robustness of the model.
Disc , I don't know Earle personally , just assumptions on my part
Thanks Maverick. Appreciate your opinion :)
Cheers
I concur with your viewpoint 100% mate.
To me it doesn't matter one way or the other if they hold back some or all of the next dividend as a one-off precautionary measure, and I am sure it doesn't bother you either. What matters is that this will be a one-off and the long term sustainability of the gross yield of 6.5% is not in question and is absolutely outstanding considering the long term growth characteristics of the industry and the robustness and defensive nature of the needs based care model OCA have in particular.
Underlying earnings of around 8.5 - 9.0 cps puts them on a normal year underlying PE of just 8.5. Hmmm
Some big numbers getting sold and purchased after the news that on Thursday we will be in alert level 2. How that effects Oceania I do not know, but I do know that staff who are doing refurbishments may not be allowed to operate. Onward and upward to $1 hopefully.
A little birdie tells me OCA will have ongoing very strict rules about visitation under Covid 19 level 2 protocols. Indicative measures as outlined to village managers are:-
Visits will be by 30 minute appointment, held in a place designated and supervised by management with strict decontamination procedures after each appointment.
Maximum of 2 family members allowed to attend, no hugging or touching.
Sounds very tough but I share this info from a discussion I had on the weekend with a very well respected OCA village manager to give investors some assurance as to how seriously OCA are continuing to take this matter and the steps they're taking to protect vulnerable residents.
Disc: I bought more OCA and MET today.
Hopefully most of the residents can understand the reasoning for the strict measures...must be tough for some of them.
Looks like any opportunity to grab a few more OCA @73 or so may have slipped away. Great to see some upward momentum after about 3 weeks of heavy selling. Back into 8x by the end of the week, or have I just jinxed it?