The famous Dornbusch's Law of financial crises is that they take longer to hit than you think, but then unfold much faster than you ever thought possible. So you have a chance to be wrong twice.
Lots of risks around including slowing growth in emerging markets and a possible meltdown like 2008 where a bailout is needed.
Any emerging market country with serious imbalances is going to get hit as the Fed tightens. That is what happened in 1998. This looks very similar. The emerging market nexus was not big enough to take down the global economy in 1998. Today, it makes up over 50 per cent of world output, and 80 per cent of incremental growth. If Turkey is a sign of stress to come, batten down the hatches.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...e-at-risk?rm=a