I post enough about the quants on here, all I gather from your demeanour is an emotional attachment to your holding.
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Oh no..people lose big money on SUM:eek2:
I am not saying Summerset will suffer at all... I keep seeing the same comparison of SUM to the rest of the sector - followed by a volition towards the markets valuation.
FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17F OPERATING EBITDA ($m) 21.5 28.5 34.3 49.4 69.1 87.5 ADJUSTED NPAT ($m) 15.6 24.6 25.1 39.3 56.4 73.5
Will continue growing at a rate the market will love to reward, but the sentiment is not favourable at this current point in time, things change.
SUM is a good pick moving forward - unfortunately it will not be allowed the multiples of AGED CARE providers as I have said before.
I notice he quotes the average but the medium is a much better measurement for house prices. Down $60,000 (6.66%) from its peak in March and now flat for the past 12 months.
This has been discussed to death but it's worth noting as I believe it's the main reason for the SP slump in this sector.
Long term holder.
Percy....Many many thanks for saying that.Like entry into a retirement entity is ..I believe..anywhere between (in ChCh) 175k and 400k....Despite what occurs in the property mkt folk will continue to move to a retirement home..Like ....They have no choice.Cheers.
Its certainly going to be an interesting couple of years for this sector.
I do feel the development and resale margins will be squeezed once this once-in-a-lifetime housing bubble bursts.
I also suspect many baby boomers will end up living with their children during their last years - more like Asian families.
Its going to be interesting and I'm glad I'm watching from the sidelines.
The past marginal expansion has been a huge tailwind behind Summersets revenue growth and that expansion was the result of the housing market boom...
Summerset are more than capable of succeeding at intensive development projects to continue growth... but over the forthcoming decade the AGR will not be maintained anywhere near the past years CAGR.
SUMMERSET GROUP HOLDINGS FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17F FY18F FY19F Average number of retirement properties 1751 1986 2268 2624 3053 3500 4000 * Average resale margin on new and existing properties ($) 50,052 54,124 66,580 82,640 90,250 95,500 100,000 * Average management and membership fees generated per retirement property ($) 8,154 8,323 9,604 10,686 11,000 11,300 11,500 Operating revenues generated ($m) 65.1 78.8 106.7 140.2 171.5 200.5 230.5
Wrong, there has been a significant increase in the number of residents from Asian families entering these facilities over the last few years. Children don't have time or the inclination to have their parents living with them in the main, most of the elderly I talk to don't want to be a burden on their children, and understand they live busy modern lifestyles.